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Dairy industry review
August 2012
Industry Information Bedryfsinligting
Milk production Melkproduksie
Monthly milk production from 2009-2012 is provided in Table 1. The long-term trend in milk production is clear from Figure 1, denoting annual milk production from 2004-2011. Milk production shows an increasing long-term trend.
Monthly milk production from January 2009 to July 2012 is shown in Figure 2.
Maandelikse melkproduksie vanaf 2009-2012 word in Tabel 1 verskaf. Die langtermyn tendens in melkproduksie blyk uit Figuur 1, wat jaarlikse melkproduksie vir die periode vanaf 2004-2011 aandui. Melkproduksie vertoon ‘n stygende langtermyn tendens.
Maandelikse melkproduksie vanaf Januarie 2009 tot Julie 2012 word in Figuur 2 aangedui.
Table 1 : Commercial milk production and application, 2009-2012
Tabel 1 : Kommersiële melkproduksie en aanwending daarvan, 2009-2012
Date Production000 L
% ChangeY-o-y*
2009 2 519 970 -3.32010 2 637 658 4.6
Jan-11 233 599 1.7Feb-11 196 306 2.0Mar-11 202 679 -1.3Apr-11 190 729 -0.4
May-11 195 503 -0.8Jun-11 189 765 0.5Jul-11 201 186 -2.0
Aug-11 222 348 -1.8Sep-11 245 927 3.2Oct-11 257 274 1.2Nov-11 241 612 -0.8Dec-11 239 499 -0.7
2011 2 616 429 -0.3
Jan-12 229 628 -1.7Feb-12 206 907 5.4Mar-12 213 624 5.4Apr-12 199 312 4.5
May-12 206 452 5.6Jun-12 202 859 6.9Jul-12 208 590 3.7
* Year on year/ Jaar op jaar
Source / Bron : Milk SA/ Melk SA
2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112,000,000
2,100,000
2,200,000
2,300,000
2,400,000
2,500,000
2,600,000
2,700,000
Annual milk production
Figure 1 : Annual milk production, 2004-2011
Figuur 1 : Jaarlikse melkproduksie, 2004-2011Source / Bron : 2004-2005 MPO, SAMO, Milk Board / Melkraad, Abstract / Kortbegrip, 2006-2011 Milk SA / Melk SA
Jan Feb. Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 170 000 180 000 190 000 200 000 210 000 220 000 230 000 240 000 250 000 260 000 270 000
Figure 2 : Monthly milk production, 2009-2012
Figuur 2 : Maandelikse melkproduksie, 2009-2012Source / Bron : Milk SA/ Melk SA
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Figure 3 : Long term trend in milk production, 2004-2012
Figuur 3 : Langtermyn tendens in melkproduksie, 2004-2012Source / Bron : See Figure 1 / Sien Figuur 1
Figure 4 : Application of locally produced milk in concentrated and other products, 2006-2012
Figuur 4 : Aanwending van plaaslik geproduseerde melk in gekonsentreerde en ander produkte, 2006-2012
Source / Bron : Milk SA / Melk SA
4
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Concentrated products Other products
%
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
150 000
170 000
190 000
210 000
230 000
250 000
270 000M
illio
n lit
res
Import statistics Invoerstatistiek
Import statistics for the years from 2006-2011 are summarized in Table 2.
Annual imports from 1995-2011 are shown in Figure 5 and monthly imports, on a milk equivalent base from January 1995 to May 2012 in Figure 6.
Figure 7 shows the composition of imports for 2007-2011.
Invoerstatistiek vir die jare van 2006-2011 word in Tabel 2 weergegee.
Jaarlikse invoere vanaf 1995-2011 word in Figuur 5 aangedui en maandelikse invoere op ‘n melkekwivalent basis vanaf Januarie 1995 tot Mei 2012 in Figuur 6.
Die samestelling van invoere vir 2007-2011 word in Figuur 7 aangedui.
Table 2 : Annual imports 2006-2011 (Ton)
Tabel 2 : Jaarlikse invoere 2006-2011 (Ton)
TariffHeadingTariefpos
DescriptionBeskrywing
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
04.01 Milk and Cream / Melk en roon 4 944 13 858 12 799 10 902 11 119 8 324
04.02Milk, concentrated /Melk, gekonsentreerd
9 032 14 386 5 852 5 385 6 771 7 895
04.03Buttermilk & yogurt /Karringmelk & joghurt
1 562 1 611 669 1 381 1 379 2 131
04.04Whey & modified whey /Wei & gemodifiseerde wei
7 514 5 712 7 539 6 260 7 268 9 445
04.05Butter & other milk fats /Botter en ander melkvette
3 142 3 331 2 812 3 201 2 192 3 153
04.06Cheese and curd /Kaas en wrongel
4 684 5 413 4 337 5 245 6 331 6 765
Grand Total / Groottotaal 30 879 44 312 34 00932 373 35 061 37 714
Source / Bron : Customs & Excise import statistics supplied by SAMPRO / Doeane en aksyns statistiek voorsien deur SAMPRO
5
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
5 000
10 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 00050 000
40
90
140
190
240
Mass base/ Massa basis (left axis/ linker as)ME Base/ ME basis ( Right axis/ regteras)
Tonn
es
Mill
ion
litre
s.
Figure 5 : Annual imports of dairy products, 1995-2011
Figuur 5 : Jaarlikse invoere van suiwelprodukte, 1995-2011Source / Bron : Customs & Excise import statistics supplied by SAMPRO / Doeane en akyns statistiek voorsien deur SAMPRO
Figure 6 : Monthly imports, milk equivalent base, January 1995 to May 2012
Figuur 6 : Maandelikse invoer, melkekwivalent basis, Januarie 1995 tot Mei 2012Source / Bron : Customs & Excise import statistics supplied by SAMPRO / Doeane en akyns statistiek voorsien deur SAMPRO
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
Monthly imports/ maandelikse invoere 3 month moving average/3 maand lopende gemiddeld
Mil.
L. M
ilk e
quiv
alen
t/ m
elke
kwiv
alen
t
*
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Milk & cream/ melk en room Milk powder/ melkpoeier Buttermilk & yoghurt/ karringmelk en joghurtWhey/ wei Butter/ botter Cheese/ Kaas
Tonn
es
Figure 7 : Composition of imports, 2007-2011
Figuur 7 : Samestelling van invoere, 2007-2011Source / Bron : Customs & Excise import statistics supplied by SAMPRO / Doeane en akyns statistiek voorsien deur SAMPRO
Export statistics Uitvoerstatistiek
Export statistics for 2006-2011 are shown in Table 3. The composition of annual exports is shown in Figure 8.
Uitvoerstatistiek vanaf 2006-2011 word in Tabel 3 aangedui. Die samestelling van jaarlikse uitvoere word in Figuur 8 aangedui.
Net Exports Netto Uitvoere
Net exports, on a milk equivalent basis, are shown in Figure 9.
Jaarlikse netto uitvoere op ‘n melkekwivalent basis word in Figuur 9 aangedui
7
Table 3 : Annual exports (ton), 2006-2011
Tabel 3 : Jaarlikse uitvoere (ton) 2006-2011
TariffHeadingTariefpos
DescriptionBeskrywing
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
04.01 Milk and Cream / Melk en room 12 559 7 227 19 294 21 293 17 451 20 802
04.02Milk, concentrated /Melk, gekonsentreerd
4 367 4 325 11 446 7 864 4 612 7 245
04.03Buttermilk & Yogurt /Karringmelk & Joghurt
4 980 3 904 5 743 5 709 4 527 9 215
04.04Whey & modified whey /Wei & gemodifiseerde wei
2 339 1 239 3 928 3 853 3 805 1 256
04.05Butter & other milk fats /Botter en ander melkvette
771 880 1 565 1 309 1 471 992
04.06Cheese and curd /Kaas en wrongel
1 527 979 1 434 1 741 2 083 2 307
Grand Total / Groottotaal 26 543 18 516 42 781 41 771 33 950 41 817
Source / Bron : Customs & Excise import statistics supplied by SAMPRO / Doeane en aksyns statistiek voorsien deur SAMPRO
8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Milk & cream/ melk en room Milk powder/ melkpoeier Buttermilk & yoghurt/ karringmelk en joghurtWhey/ wei Butter/ botter Cheese/ Kaas
Tonn
es
Figure 8 : Composition of annual exports, 2007-2011
Figuur 8 : Samestelling van jaarlikse uitvoere, 2007-2011Source / Bron : Customs & Excise import statistics supplied by SAMPRO / Doeane en aksyns statistiek voorsien deur SAMPRO
Figure 9 : Cumulative net imports, milk equivalent basis, January 2007 – May 2012
Figuur 9 : Kumulatiewe netto invoere, melkekwivalent basis, Januarie 2007 tot Mei 2012Source / Bron : MPO Calculations from data supplied by SAMPRO / MPO berekening vanaf data verskaf deur SAMPRO
9
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-30-101030507090
110130
Mill
ion
litre
milk
equi
vale
nt
Prices Pryse
Price indices for raw milk on farm level, processed dairy products on factory level and milk, cheese and eggs on retail level are shown in Table 4 and Figure 10.
Prysindekse van roumelk op plaasvlak, verwerkte suiwelprodukte op fabrieksvlak en van melk, kaas en eiers op kleinhandelsvlak word in Tabel 4 en Figuur 10 aangedui.
Tabel 4 : Prysindekse van roumelk op plaas-, geprosesseerde suiwelprodukte op fabrieks- en melk, kaas en eiers op kleinhandelsvlak
Table 4 : Price indices of raw milk on farm, processed dairy products on factory and milk, cheese and eggs on retail level
(2000 = 100)Month Dairy products PPI Raw milk PPI* Milk, cheese & eggs,
CPI
Jan-11 206.2 228.8 232.6
Feb-11 206.2 228.5 233.0
Mar-11 206.2 231.8 234.3
Apr-11 207.5 237.2 234.5
May-11 210.7 239.7 238.0
Jun-11 211.6 239.3 239.3
Jul-11 211.6 239.3 239.3
Aug-11 212.9 239.6 240.3
Sep-11 212.6 239.6 240.7
Oct-11 212.9 240.3 240.9
Nov-11 214.2 242.7 240.5
Dec-11 215.3 244.4 240.7
Jan-12 215.5 250.4 242.6
Feb-12 222.0 266.0 248.2
Mar-12 226.6 275.0 253.9
Apr-12 232.9 290.0 255.7
May-12 233.9 291.1 257.6
Jun-12 235.8 287.4 259.1
* Adjusted to same base period/ Aangepas na ooreenstemmende basisperiode
Source / Bron : Statistics SA PPI and CPI data / Statistics SA PPI en VPI data
10
Figure 10 : Price indices of raw milk on farm, processed dairy products on factory and milk, cheese and eggs on retail level, 2000-2012
Figuur 10 : Prysindekse van roumelk op plaas-, geprosesseerde suiwelprodukte op fabrieks- en melk, kaas en eiers op kleinhandelvlak, 2000-2012
Source / Bron : Statistics SA PPI and CPI data / Statistics SA PPI en VPI data
International situation Internasionale omgewing
World dairy product prices are shown in Table 5 and in Figure 11.
Wêreld suiwelprodukpryse word in Tabel 5 en Figuur 11 aangedui.
11
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-120
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Dairy products PPI/Suiwelprodukte PPIRaw milk PPI/ Roumelk PPIMilk, cheese & eggs, CPI/ Melk, kaas & eiers, VPI
Inde
x/In
deks
(20
00 =
100
)
Table 5 : Monthly international FOB prices for New Zealand dairy products, January 2010 to July 2012
Tabel 5 : Maandelikse internasionale VAB pryse vir Nieu Seelandse suiwelprodukte, Januarie 2010 tot Julie 2012
Month /Maand
Price US$ / tonPrys VSA$ per ton
SA cent / US$Sent / VSA$
Price Rand / tonPrys Rand per ton
Butter SMP Cheddar Butter SMP Cheddar
Jan-10 3 800 3 063 4 200 746 28 348 22 846 31 332
Feb-10 3 688 2 750 4 013 766 28 246 21 065 30 736
Mar-10 3 725 2 894 3 850 743 27 677 21 501 28 606
Apr-10 3800 3 550 3 970 734 27 892 26 057 29 140
May-10 4 075 3 500 4 000 763 31 092 26 705 30 520
Jun-10 4 050 3 225 3 950 765 30 983 24 671 30 218
Jul-10 4 000 3 125 3 950 755 30 200 23 594 29 823
Aug-10 4 025 2 982 3 842 730 29 383 21 769 28 047
Sep-10 4 175 3 187 3 975 714 29 810 22 755 28 382
Oct-10 4 350 3 100 4 075 692 30 102 21 452 28 199
Nov-10 4 500 3 050 4 175 697 31365 21 258 29 099
Dec-10 4 500 3 100 4 150 683 31 365 21 259 29 100
Jan-11 4 637 3 535 4 400 692 30 735 21 173 28 345
Feb-11 4 800 3 900 4 400 718 31 995 24 392 30 360
Mar-11 4 875 3 875 4 425 692 34 512 28 041 31 636
Apr-11 4 850 3 675 4 400 674 34 125 27 125 30 975
May-11 4 700 3 750 4 425 686 33 250 26 250 30 975
Jun-11 4 750 3 950 4 450 678 32 088 24 462 30 448
Jul-11 4 675 3 812 4 463 678 34 464 28 002 31 592
Aug-11 4 450 3 550 4 450 706 31 417 25 063 31 417
Aug-11 4 450 3 550 4 450 752 31 772 26 140 32 246
Sep-11 4 225 3 476 4 288 795 32 396 26 585 34 583
Oct-11 4 075 3 344 4 350 816 31 008 27 540 32 232
Nov-11 3 800 3 375 3 950 817 29 910 28 187 32 214
Dec-11 3 661 3 450 3 943 801 30 238 27 835 32 745
Jan-12 3 775 3 475 4 088 763 29 185 27 289 30 470
Feb-12 3 825 3 577 3 994 765 27 923 24 480 30 218
Mar-12 3 650 3 200 3 950 790 29 230 24 885 29 625
Apr-12 3 700 3 150 3 750 783 28 971 24 665 29 363
May-12 3 200 2 838 3 650 815 26 080 23 130 29 748
Jun-12 2 987 2 863 3 600 840 25 091 24 045 30 240
Jul-12 2 850 2 875 3 600 825 23 513 23 719 29 700
Source / Bron : USDA, SA Reserve Bank / USDA, SA Reserwebank
12
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-1212 000
17 000
22 000
27 000
32 000
37 000
42 000
SMP/ AMP Butter/ Botter Cheddar FMP/ VMP
R/to
n
Figure 11 : World dairy product prices (Rand per ton), January 2007 to July 2012
Figuur 11 : Wêreld suiwelprodukpryse (Rand per ton), Januarie 2007 tot Julie 2012Source / Bron: USDA; SA Reserve Bank / USDA. SA Reserwebank
Price indices of farm requisites Prysindekse van boerdery benodigdhede
Price indexes of farm requisites are shown in Table 6.
Prysindekse van verskillende boerdery benodigdhede word in Tabel 6 aangedui.
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Table 6 : Price indexes of farm requisites, 2009-2012
Tabel 6 : Prysindekse van boerderybenodigdhede 2009-2012
PeriodPeriode
Machinery &implements
Material forfixed
improvements
Intermediategoods andservices
All farmingrequisites
2009 133.0 141.6 172.8 166.6
2010 154.9 145.1 193.4 186.6
2011 174.6 153.6 217.8 209.7
CAGR2009 - 2011* 14.6 % 4.1 % 12.3 % 12.2 %
Apr-09 131.8 144.6 168.5 163.1
Jul-09 135.9 139.1 172.1 166.2
Oct-09 139.7 141.9 177.8 171.6
Jan-10 146.2 142.7 185.0 178.5
Apr-10 152.9 145.5 191.3 184.6
Jul-10 157.9 145.4 196.6 189.4
Oct-10 162.4 146.8 201.0 194.0
Jan-11 169.4 150.3 208.3 201.0
Apr-11 171.2 152.5 215.8 207.5
Jul-11 175.8 154.2 220.5 212.1
Oct-11 182.6 157.4 226.8 218.3
Jan-12 190.8 160.3 241.7 232.1
Apr-12 196.0 159.1 249.5 239.0
CAGRApr-09-Apr-12* 14.1 % 3.2 % 14.0 % 13.6 %
*CAGR = Computed annual growth rate / Berekende jaarlikse groeikoers
Source / Bron : DAFF, Crops and Markets/ DAFF, Crops and markets
14
Import and export prices In- en uitvoerpryse
Free on board prices for imported and exported dairy products are shown in Table 7.
Vry aan boord in- en uitvoerpyse van suiwelprodukte word in Tabel 7 aangedui.
Table 7 : FOB Import and export prices per tariff heading, 2010-2012
Tabel 7 : VAB In- en uitvoerpryse per tariefpos, 2010-2012*
Tariffheading /Tariefpos
Description /Beskrywing
Import price /Invoerprys
(R/kg)
Export price /Uitvoerprys
(R/kg)
2010 2011 2012* 2010 2011 2012*
04.01 Milk & cream /Melk & room 4.45 5.79 5.28 7.79 7.81 7.73
04.02 Concentrated milk /Gekonsentreerde melk
0402.10 Skimmed milk powder /Afgeroomde melkpoeier 17.68 24.39 24.84 24.72 21.05 21.24
0402.21 Full cream milk powder /Volroom melkpoeier 19.76 29.75 33.11 19.85 24.70 31.86
0402.29 Condensed milk /Gekondenseerde melk 30.09 25.81 45.95 37.91 31.74 16.36
04.03 Buttermilk & yoghurt /Karringmelk & joghurt
0403.10 Yoghurt / Joghurt 21.92 16.03 46.18 17.85 16.82 17.22
0403.90 Buttermilk / Karringmelk 18.96 22.95 23.58 15.71 13.74 13.64
04.04 Whey / Wei 16.13 32.00 21.19 8.73 8.58 9.60
04.05 Butter / Botter 30.43 33.15 31.56 25.65 31.50 36.18
04.06 Cheese / Kaas
0406.30 Processed cheese /Proseskaas 38.75 41.71 40.67 43.33 35.60 44.00
0406.40 Blue veined cheese /Blou geaarde kaas 56.64 62.90 61.20 25.57 37.72 73.93
0406.90 Hard cheese / harde kaas 43.51 54.51 40.50 39.61 36.42 43.46
* 2012 : January-May/ Januarie - Mei
Source / Bron : Customs & Excise import statistics supplied by SAMPRO / Doeane en aksyns statistiek voorsien deur SAMPRO
15