it was the best of times, it was the worst of times · 2013. 1. 9. · "it was the best of...
TRANSCRIPT
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."
Hoe staat het met de IPv6-transitie en hoe nu verder?
Amsterdam, 8 jan 2013
Iljitsch van Beijnum
There's nothing more annoying than Dutch people speaking English to other Dutch people.
There's nothing more annoying than Dutch people speaking English to other Dutch people.
There's nothing more annoying than Dutch people speaking English to other Dutch people.
There's nothing more annoying than Dutch people speaking English to other Dutch people.
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."
Hoe staat het met de IPv6-transitie en hoe nu verder?
Amsterdam, 8 jan 2013
Iljitsch van Beijnum
2
So I'll be speaking Dutch.But don't worry, I'll be subtitled.
So I'll be speaking Dutch.But don't worry, I'll be subtitled.
So I'll be speaking Dutch.But don't worry, I'll be subtitled.
So I'll be speaking Dutch.But don't worry, I'll be subtitled.
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."
Hoe staat het met de IPv6-transitie en hoe nu verder?
Amsterdam, 8 jan 2013
Iljitsch van Beijnum
3
Status IPv4
Feb 2011
4
In early 2011 the IANA global IPv4 pool ran dry.In early 2011 the IANA global IPv4 pool ran dry.In early 2011 the IANA global IPv4 pool ran dry.In early 2011 the IANA global IPv4 pool ran dry.
Status IPv4
Feb 2011
Apr 2011: final /8
5
A few months later the Asia-Pacific region was out of IPv4 addresses
A few months later the Asia-Pacific region was out of IPv4 addresses
A few months later the Asia-Pacific region was out of IPv4 addresses
A few months later the Asia-Pacific region was out of IPv4 addresses
Status IPv4
Feb 2011
Apr 2011: final /8
Sep 2012: final /8
6
and last September Europe and the rest of the RIPE region ran out.
and last September Europe and the rest of the RIPE region ran out.
and last September Europe and the rest of the RIPE region ran out.
and last September Europe and the rest of the RIPE region ran out.
IPv4 addresses per year:I think this graph speaks for itself.
IPv4 addresses per year:I think this graph speaks for itself.
IPv4 addresses per year:I think this graph speaks for itself.
IPv4 addresses per year:I think this graph speaks for itself.
IPv4-adressen per jaar
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total AfriNIC APNIC ARIN LACNIC RIPE NCC
7
The good news: IPv6.However, there are many different statistics.
The good news: IPv6.However, there are many different statistics.
The good news: IPv6.However, there are many different statistics.
The good news: IPv6.However, there are many different statistics.
Het goede nieuws: IPv6
• In 2012:
• DE-CIX: 1 Gbps → 5 Gbps (0,3%)
• Alexa top 500: 8% → 23%
• Google: 0,4% → 1% (2,5 x)
• in 2011: 0,2% → 0,4% (2 x)
8
If we can maintain Google's annual factor 2.5 increase, we'll be at 100% IPv6 in five years.If we can maintain Google's annual factor 2.5 increase, we'll be at 100% IPv6 in five years.If we can maintain Google's annual factor 2.5 increase, we'll be at 100% IPv6 in five years.If we can maintain Google's annual factor 2.5 increase, we'll be at 100% IPv6 in five years.
Het goede nieuws: IPv6
• In 2012:
• DE-CIX: 1 Gbps → 5 Gbps (0,3%)
• Alexa top 500: 8% → 23%
• Google: 0,4% → 1% (2,5 x)
• in 2011: 0,2% → 0,4% (2 x)
9
This is the relative level of IPv6 capability that Google sees in different countries.
This is the relative level of IPv6 capability that Google sees in different countries.
This is the relative level of IPv6 capability that Google sees in different countries.
This is the relative level of IPv6 capability that Google sees in different countries.
10
Despite lack of IPv4, Asia is doing fairly poorly.Even China is below the world-wide average.
Despite lack of IPv4, Asia is doing fairly poorly.Even China is below the world-wide average.
Despite lack of IPv4, Asia is doing fairly poorly.Even China is below the world-wide average.
Despite lack of IPv4, Asia is doing fairly poorly.Even China is below the world-wide average.
11
The United States now has three times as many IPv6 users as China.
The United States now has three times as many IPv6 users as China.
The United States now has three times as many IPv6 users as China.
The United States now has three times as many IPv6 users as China.
12
A few countries in Europe are doing very well. Only one or two ISPs make all the difference.A few countries in Europe are doing very well. Only one or two ISPs make all the difference.A few countries in Europe are doing very well. Only one or two ISPs make all the difference.A few countries in Europe are doing very well. Only one or two ISPs make all the difference.
13
We are not doing that great.We are not doing that great.We are not doing that great.We are not doing that great.
14
But at least we're well ahead of Belgium.But at least we're well ahead of Belgium.But at least we're well ahead of Belgium.But at least we're well ahead of Belgium.
15
The number of BGP autonomous systems with IPv6 is growing exponentially since 2008.
The number of BGP autonomous systems with IPv6 is growing exponentially since 2008.
The number of BGP autonomous systems with IPv6 is growing exponentially since 2008.
IPv6-groei nu exponentieel
• IPv4 ASen: exponentieel tot 2002, daarna lineair
• IPv6 ASen: lineair tot 2008, sindsdien exponentieel
bron: CAIDA
The number of BGP autonomous systems with IPv6 is growing exponentially since 2008.
16
What now?What now?What now?
Wat nu?
What now?
17
There's a gap between "peak IPv4" (2010) and "full IPv6" of some five years...
There's a gap between "peak IPv4" (2010) and "full IPv6" of some five years...
There's a gap between "peak IPv4" (2010) and "full IPv6" of some five years...
There's a gap between "peak IPv4" (2010) and "full IPv6" of some five years...
Wat nu?
18
APNIC region has been very quiet. (Crickets...)Word on the street: ISPs buying big NAT boxes.APNIC region has been very quiet. (Crickets...)
Word on the street: ISPs buying big NAT boxes.APNIC region has been very quiet. (Crickets...)
Word on the street: ISPs buying big NAT boxes.APNIC region has been very quiet. (Crickets...)
Word on the street: ISPs buying big NAT boxes.
Lessen APNIC-regio
Gryllus bimaculatus
19
Advantages / disadvantages of IPv6 transition are different for different organizations.
Advantages / disadvantages of IPv6 transition are different for different organizations.
Advantages / disadvantages of IPv6 transition are different for different organizations.
Nash equilibrium
• Voordelen en kosten transitie naar IPv6 verschilt enorm per organisatie, dus:
• sommigen willen snel
• anderen helemaal niet
• Werkt alleen als iedereen meedoet...
• Nash equilibrium: niemand kan eenzijdig de situatie verbeteren
Advantages / disadvantages of IPv6 transition are different for different organizations.
20
Some want to do it fast, others not at all.But it only really works if everyone adopts IPv6.
Some want to do it fast, others not at all.But it only really works if everyone adopts IPv6.
Some want to do it fast, others not at all.But it only really works if everyone adopts IPv6.
Some want to do it fast, others not at all.But it only really works if everyone adopts IPv6.
Nash equilibrium
• Voordelen en kosten transitie naar IPv6 verschilt enorm per organisatie, dus:
• sommigen willen snel
• anderen helemaal niet
• Werkt alleen als iedereen meedoet...
• Nash equilibrium: niemand kan eenzijdig de situatie verbeteren
21
So we have a Nash equilibrium: nobody can improve the situation unilaterally.
So we have a Nash equilibrium: nobody can improve the situation unilaterally.
So we have a Nash equilibrium: nobody can improve the situation unilaterally.
So we have a Nash equilibrium: nobody can improve the situation unilaterally.
Nash equilibrium
• Voordelen en kosten transitie naar IPv6 verschilt enorm per organisatie, dus:
• sommigen willen snel
• anderen helemaal niet
• Werkt alleen als iedereen meedoet...
• Nash equilibrium: niemand kan eenzijdig de situatie verbeteren
22
Difficult years ahead: lots of NAT, FUD; some still in denial. But we'll get there. In 2017...?
Difficult years ahead: lots of NAT, FUD; some still in denial. But we'll get there. In 2017...?
Difficult years ahead: lots of NAT, FUD; some still in denial. But we'll get there. In 2017...?
Difficult years ahead: lots of NAT, FUD; some still in denial. But we'll get there. In 2017...?
Geen plan B
• We hebben een paar moeilijke jaren voor de boeg:
• veel NAT
• veel onduidelijkheid
• nog steeds mensen in ontkenningsfase
• Maar uiteindelijk komt dat IPv6 internet er wel
• 2017...?
23
Thanks for listening!See the Ars Technica link for the long version.
Thanks for listening!See the Ars Technica link for the long version.
Thanks for listening!See the Ars Technica link for the long version.
Thanks for listening!See the Ars Technica link for the long version.
• Het hele verhaal in meer detail:
• http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/01/ipv6-takes-one-step-forward-ipv4-two-steps-back-in-2012/
• www.bgpexpert.com: contact info, meer BGP/IPv6
24