isthereafuturefortelecom.ppt [sólo lectura]antonio/isthereafuturefortelecom_slides.pdf · enron...
TRANSCRIPT
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Is there a future for Telecommunications?
Today’s SituationA possible FutureChallenges ahead
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Birds of a Feather
TELCOS MOBILE OPER.
INTERNET COMPANIES MANUFACTURERS
TODAY’S SITUATION
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Promises, Promises
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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
TODAY’S SITUATION
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Promises, Promises
TODAY’S SITUATION
Aleron
360Networks Digital Teleport
Enron Broadband
Ebone/GTS
FLAG Telecom Global Crossing
GST
Impsat
KPNQwest
Sigma NetworksSphera
Storm TelecommunicationsTeleglobe
Telergy
Velocita
ViatelWilliams Communications
Adelphia Broadband Office
Metromedia
Convergent Com
Covad
ICG Comm
FastComm
Global Telecom
North Point
Rhythms
McLeodUSA
OnSite
NetConnections
XOCommun
Yipes
WINfirst
ZephionIridium
OmniskyMetricom
NextWave
PSINet
Ardent
Excite@home
Exodus
iBeam
NetRail
Globalstar
StarBand
Motient
ARTWinStar
Teligent
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What did not Work…
• The myth of Replacement
TODAY’S SITUATION
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What did not Work…
TODAY’S SITUATION
DoCoMo ARPU
• Revenue Ceiling - Revenue Squeeze
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What did not Work…
TODAY’S SITUATION
• Demand vs Offer
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What did not Work…
TODAY’S SITUATION
• Demand vs Offer
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A lot of information out there…
TB 0
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Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
TODAY’S SITUATION
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A lot of information out there…
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Year 2000
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Office
RadioTB
TODAY’S SITUATION
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A lot of information out there…
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Year 2000
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Office
RadioTB
TODAY’S SITUATION
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A lot of information out there…
0
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10000
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25000
Year 2000
MusicBooksMagsMoviesDVDNewsp.WWWOfficeRadioTelevis.e-MailTB
TODAY’S SITUATION
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A lot of information out there…
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Year 2000
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Office
Radio
Televis.
e-MailTB
TODAY’S SITUATION
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A lot of information out there…
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Year 2000
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Office
Radio
Televis.
Home Video
Photos
Telefono
PB
TODAY’S SITUATION
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A lot of information out there…
PB 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Year 2000
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Office
Radio
Televis.
Home Video
Photos
Telefono
TODAY’S SITUATION
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A lot of information out there…
PB 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Year 2000
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Office
Radio
Televis
Home Video
Photos
Telephone
TODAY’S SITUATION
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What will be?
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
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Beyond the barriers of space and…time
Beyond the Blackboard …
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
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Beyond the barriers of space and…time
BEYOND THE BLACKBOARD …
Be there, staying here
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
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INFORMATION APPLIANCES
A World of Intelligent Things
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
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A World of Intelligent Things
ON THE ROAD,IN THE COUNTRYSIDE,...
INFORMATION APPLIANCES
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
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Computers Evolution
1960… MAINFRAME1970… MINICOMPUTER1980… DESKTOP1990… LAPTOP1998… PALMTOP2002 ROACHTOP
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
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Computers Evolution
1960… MAINFRAME1970… MINICOMPUTER1980… DESKTOP1990… LAPTOP1998… PALMTOP2002 ROACHTOP2005 PAPERTOP
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
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Computers Evolution
1960… MAINFRAME1970… MINICOMPUTER1980… DESKTOP1990… LAPTOP1998… PALMTOP2002… ROACHTOP2005… PAPERTOP
2012… TOPA POSSIBLE FUTURE
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Beyond Internet
Web Services
Resource Pr.Connection Pr.
Collective Pr.A POSSIBLE FUTURE
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A crumbling world
Time / distance based pricing
0
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Traffic Revenues
SubscriptionRevenues
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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A crumbling world
Time / distance based pricing
Bandwidth based pricing
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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A crumbling world
Time / distance based pricing
SLA based pricing
Bandwidth based pricing
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Outer Evolution
• Storage
52 MB
1 TBCHALLENGES AHEAD
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Outer Evolution
• Storage
• RF Tag
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Outer Evolution
• Storage
• RF Tag
• Display
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Outer Evolution
• Storage
• RF Tag
• Display
• Battery
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Paradigms
Peer to Peer
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Paradigms
Peer to PeerCluster to Cluster
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Paradigms
Peer to PeerCluster to Cluster
Sticker
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Expectations…
The goal is to have data rates up to 20 Mbps, even when used in such scenarios as a vehicle travelling
200 kilometers per hour(*)
(*) http://www.commsdesign.com/story/OEG20010626S0065
WHY?
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Disruptions Ahead
Increase in storage
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Dynamic Memory
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Disruptions Ahead
Increase in storage
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Dynamic Memory
• Hard Disk
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Disruptions Ahead
Increase in storage
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Dynamic Memory
• Hard Disk
• Read Only
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Disruptions Ahead
A consumer market
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Squeezing Margins
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Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Squeezing Margins
• Managing the Unmanageable
A consumer market
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Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Squeezing Margins
• Managing the Unmanageable
• New Tech Leaders
A consumer market
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Disruptions Ahead
Offer exceeds demand
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Content
• Carriers
• Applications
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Disruptions Ahead
Pin-pointing
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Zooming
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Disruptions Ahead
Pin-pointing
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Zooming
• Localization
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Disruptions Ahead
Pin-pointing
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Zooming
• Localization
• Tagging
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Disruptions Ahead
Moore’s Law reversed
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Disruptions Ahead
Wireless Access
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• From Connectivity to Services
• M2M
• Overlayed Networks
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Disruptions Ahead
Displays
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Ubiquitous Connectivity
Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Communications Environments
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Digital Television
Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Eyeballs
• Interactivity
• Advertising
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From Bits to Atoms
Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Printing bits
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From Bits to Atoms
Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Printing bits
• Packaging services into atoms
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Looking for Value
1 MB of SMS = 1000 E
1 MB on mobile = 1 E
1 MB on fixed line = 0,1 E
1 MB of television = 0,001 E
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Looking for Value
Context FREE
1 E per mc
1.000 E per mc
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Looking for Value
Context
Internet
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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Looking for Value
Context
Internet
Embedded Telecommunications
CHALLENGES AHEAD
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4 or 40 millions Operators?
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Software Radio
• The Bigger the Better?
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4 or 40 millions Operators?
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Software Radio
• WLAN
• The Bigger the Better?
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4 or 40 millions Operators?
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Software Radio
• WLAN
• Wireless Routers
• The Bigger the Better?
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SUMMING IT UP
THE FUTURE
The future is in the fixed-network
Log(1+ )SB*n0
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SUMMING IT UP
The future is in the fixed-networkThe future of services is in the wireless access
Log(1+ )SB*n0
THE FUTURE