issues and solutions for sfm in a changing climate in the ap region

Issues and Solutions for SFM in a Changing Climate in the AP region

Dr. Guangyu WangAssistant Dean, Faculty of Forestry

University of British Columbia

Outline • Climate change impacts in the Asia-Pacific region• Experts’ perspectives on climate change and

forest adaptation • A framework for developing adaptation

strategies and SFM: Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change

• Next steps for achieving SFM in the Asia-Pacific region

Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change

Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Climate Change in the AP Region

• The AP region risks unprecedented numbers of people displaced by floods, storms and other impacts of climate change

• In 2014, river basin floods caused US$16 billion in losses and killed 1281 people

• The Nepal Sunkoshi Landslides killed 229 people in 2014

• Tropical cyclone Rammasun in July 2014 killed 94 people in the Philippines

3Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change


October 3, 2011, About 1.5 million hectares (3.7 million acres) of paddy fields in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos have been damaged or are at risk from the worst floods to hit the region

September 3rd, 2011, Guizhou and Yunnan provinces are facing another challenge, depleted food supplies. Locals say the dry weather has affected normal crop yields, sending food prices skyrocketing.

Pinewood Nematode

Reported Natural Disasters in the Asia-Pacific in 2014

(Source: UN ESCAP)

5

Population, area, and economy directly affected by a one meter rise in sea level

(estimates based on 2010’s situation)

Source: USAID Asia Pacific Climate Change Assessment Report. 2010 6

Climate Change in the AP Region• Climate change has impacted an array of social and ecological

systems, and is expected to: – Alter forest structure and species distribution– Increase the spread of pests, diseases, and fires– Adversely affect wetlands and mountain ecosystem – Increase desertification leading to the loss of forests and forest

dependent communities– Reduce the cryosphere– Change agricultural and fishery outputs



Impacts on Forestry



Source: L. Maclaughlan, BC MoF

Cities in China are now becoming more vulnerable to climate change

11

Source: Xinhua

Northwest China

Severe damage was caused by snow in southern China in 2008 (picture is from Zhijiang Province)

Climate change in the future?

Experts’ Perspectives Survey

Objectives：- To identify experts'

perspectives on the impacts of climate change and forest adaptation in the Asia-Pacific region

- To explore the implications/recommendations for adapting forests to climate change in the Asia-Pacific region



Research MethodsThe questionnaire consisted of 15 questions within 4 sections: 1) Main impacts of climate change 2) Availability of climate change related actions/policies 3) Challenges for adapting forestry to climate change4) Potential to improve current actions to adapt forestry to

climate change

The questionnaire was distributed to forestry and climate change experts from various Asia-Pacific countries and disciplines.



Representation

South Asia12%

Southeast Asia43%Eastern Asia

22%

Oceania13%

America10%

Subregions

Government22%

Academic63%

Private Sector15%

Professions




Results: Impacts of Climate Change• Forest and water related issues were the top three negative impacts of

climate change indicated by respondents• The positive impacts indicated were associated with forest related growth

and productivity, with higher awareness in developed countries

OtherRising sea level

FloodingDrought

Fire hazardsForest disturbancesMelting of ice/snow

Storms and tornadoesSpread of diseaseSpread of insects

Freshwater shortage

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

What are the main concerns about possible climate change impacts in your region?

Mean Level of Concern


• Agriculture and forestry were indicated as the most impacted economic sectors, with similar consensus observed within subregions

• Changes in forest fire/drought and biodiversity changes were most frequently indicated as the major impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems

Other

Land suitability changes

Forest productivity changes

Changes in forest fire/droughts

Disease spread

Changes in pest outbreaks

Biodiversity changes

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

What are the major impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems in your region?

% of Responses

Results: Impacts of Climate Change



Lack of Sci-entific guid-

ance

Legislation Action plans Public awareness

Stakeholders participation

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

What are the most important challenges for the forestry sector to adapt to climate change in your region?

% o

f Res

pons

es

Results: Challenges for Adapting Forestry to Climate Change



Knowledge

of CC

Understan

ding of lo

cal pred

icted

CC scen

arios

Sophisti

cated

climate

models

Understan

ding eco

system

dynam

ics

Fores

t adap

tation re

habilit

ation te

chniques

01020304050607080

Is there a lack of scientific support in any of the following areas that might help to address climate change adaptation?

% o

f Res

pons

esResults: Challenges for Adapting

Forestry to Climate Change



Comprehensive research approaches

UBC’s Faculty of Forestry (partnering with APFNet) is able to provide holistic scientific support:

• Climate Modeling• Remote Sensing & Ecological Assessment• Biomass and Carbon Modelling • SD Strategic Planning• Adaptive Management

22

Public perception and capacity building

Soil degradation and protection

Research Framework and Organization

LULC change

23

Land、Water And Livelihood

0200400600800

1000120014001600

1978 1983 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007Year

(cul

ms,

mill

ion)

Annual product i on

Modeling and regional sustainability assessment

Local livelihood and forest management

Public perception and capacity building

LULCC dynamics

Watershed: social, environmental and economic development

1. Audit Planning

Objective, scope, extent, setting of auditing

4. Primary Information Review Existing information analysis Identification of unclear issues Planning the evidence collection

2. Watershed management information collection

Based on C&I of both sustainable forest management and regional development C&I

5. Documentation Documents reviews Records, permits Plans, guidelines, etc.

6. Consultation Local communities Industry Watershed Agencies

7. Field checks Implementation Plans, guidelines, status, maps, ownership, boundaries. Watershed social and environment

achievements

8. Data Analysis Consistency of evidence Adequacy of information for assessing the conformity with C&I Identification of any additional evidence needed

9. Collection of additional evidence Documents, interviews, consultations, field

checks

10. Assessment of evidence against C&I Findings on each criteria Identification of corrective action requirements and areas

which need improvement

11. Assessment on sustainability Conformity with the C&I Conclusions

12. Reporting Audit report

3. Other sources of information

Government authorities, research institutes, NGOs etc.

Records, permits, forest inventories, surveys, opinions, etc.

Local research accumulation

Climate models

Impact assessments

Adaptation strategies

A Framework to Develop Adaptation and SFM Strategies in Forestry

ClimateBCClimateWNAClimateChina---Climate AP

EcosystemsSpecies rangePopulation responses

Essential Fundamental Critical

BEC based management Assistant migrationClimate based Seed transfer system



Critical Elements for Developing Adaptation and SFM Strategies

• Management level climate modeling• Application of scientific tools• Regional data (climate, hydrological,

forest resources)• Knowledgeable and well trained staff • Long term commitment




ClimateAP• Provides high-resolution

and high-quality climate data for historical and future periods

• The web-based version is easily accessible to non-climatologists

• ClimateAP promotes climate change research and application in the region, and addresses the lack of publicly available, high-resolution climate models

Coverage

http://climateap.net/


Ecological Modeling• We developed 8 niche-based and process-based ecological models that

can be used at varying spatial and temporal scales– Niche-based model– Process-based models

• FORCAST-Climate• TACA• LANDIS-II• 3-PG• Carbon Budget Model (CBM)

– Model integration• Landscape Summary Tool (LST)• Patchworks

• These tools provide a framework to assess climate change impacts and develop locally specific adaptation and SFM strategies, which will significantly improve decision making and management practices.



Modeling Spatial-Temporal Variations in Forest Productivity

• Modeling spatial-temporal variations in forest productivity (e.g. NDVI) will enable better long term management planning under a changing climate

Spatial distribution of vegetation dynamic changes in the Asia-Australia region from 1982 to 2011: trend of annual photosynthetic activity (annual mean NDVI trend).


Developing Multi-Dimensional Strategic Management Planning

• Forest management objectives should address not only timber production, but other aspects, such as carbon storage, societal needs, and preservation of wildlife and biodiversity.

• Using multi-dimensional strategic planning frameworks will facilitate decision making by performing trade-off analysis among values.



Biomass (Forest) Stock

Water Balance

Carbon Balance

Ecosystem Services

Climate Change (different scenarios)

Education &

Research

Aesthetic &

Recreation

Biodiversity Conservatio

n

Fish Conservatio

n

Model Framework for Multi-Dimensional Strategic Management Planning

Main components and connections



Value-Based Decision FrameworkSocial Economic Environmental Hydrology Carbon Trade-offs

Environmental: land-base specific, GAR and TSR based

Visual Qualities Mule Deer Winter Range

Integrated Resource Management



Value-Based Decision FrameworkSocial Economic Environmental Hydrology Carbon Trade-offs

Value-Based Trade-Off Analyses

Cos

ts Increased Interests



Network and Capacity Building• We established a Climate Research Network among China, Australia,

USA, and Canada, and will extend it to SE Asian economies in Phase II. – Facilitated capacity building and knowledge transfer– Strengthened decision-making regarding forest management responses to

climate change• We hosted training workshops for local partners• Research was conducted at pilot sites in AP economies

– Phase I: Canada, China and Australia– Phase II: Malaysia, Myanmar, Laos, Chinese Taipei and China



Working with local governments, communities, and forest managers



Promotion at IUFRO Congress in Salt Lake City, USA (September 2014) and at WFC in Durban, South Africa (September 2015)



Next Steps for Achieving SFM in the AP

• Forestry issues need to be considered within the broader inter-sectoral realm– Forestry cannot be viewed in isolation, as numerous

economic sectors contribute to forest loss and degradation – Solutions to forestry issues must also be sought in policy

reform outside forestry (e.g. changes in agricultural policies may reduce pressure on remaining natural forests)

• Sustainable forestry needs to be developed in conjunction with sustainable livelihoods in order to improve environmental conditions while alleviating poverty



Next Steps for Achieving SFM in the AP

• Forest adaptation and mitigation strategies need to be based on sound science using the best available models and tools

• Regionally specific research needs to be conducted to generate SFM plans suitable for the given regions environmental, social, and political conditions– This can be done by performing trade-off analyses

using tools such as FORECAST Climate and Landscape Summary Tool (LST)



Next Steps for Achieving SFM in the APRegional and International Collaboration• There are numerous organization for AP economies to collaborate

with, which will facilitate knowledge sharing and capacity building, and improve climate change resilience and SFM practices– APFNet for sustainable forest management and rehabilitation – UNFCCC and REDD+– Association of Southeast Asian Nations– Great Mekong Subregion– Pacific Island Forum– South Asian Association for Regional Collaboration– The South Asian Cooperative Environmental Program

• More developed economies need to increase support for knowledge and capacity building so that less developed economies can achieve their COP21 commitments



Thank you!

[email protected] questions?