issue framing and evolving of climate change in china shiwei fan*, jianhua xu**, lan xue*, cheng...
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Issue framing and evolving of climate change in China
Shiwei FAN*, Jianhua XU**, Lan XUE*, Cheng LUO**** School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University
**Dept of Environmental Management, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University
*** Dept. of Computer Science & Technology ,Tsinghua University
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Agenda
• Introduction• Data and Methodology• Preliminary results• Conclusion and discussion
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Introduction: Salience of climate change• Largest GHG emitter
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China’s GHG Emission Industrial Emitters in China
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Introduction: Salience of climate change• Vulnerability of natural system and social-economic system
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
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Total damage area (1k ha.) Power (Total damage area (1k ha.))Flood area (1k ha.) Drought area (1k ha.)
21 July Rainstorm in Beijing Damage areas by flood & drought in China
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Introduction: Salience of climate change• Consensus on addressing climate change risk through collective action
President Hu Jintao making speech in UN climate conference Deputy director of NRDC Xie Zhenhua in charge of climate change issue working with BRICS
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IntroductionPromoting
and recommending phase
Prescribing phase
Invoking phase
Application phase
Intelligence phase
Appraisal phase
Terminating phase
Harold D. Lasswell, 1963
Which issue to attend to?
Which attributes to incorporate?
Which solution to examine?
Which alternative to
select?
Issue A Issue B Issue C Issue K
Attribute I Attribute II Attribute G
Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3
Choice
Attention Allocation
Problem Characterization
Alternative Generation
Choice
Agenda Setting
Problem Definition
Proposal and Debate
Collective Choice
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Introduction: importance of issue framing
Policy Problem
Issue Framing Decision Making
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Introduction
Climate change
National Security
Energy Strategy
Poverty Eradication
Gender Equality
International Politics
Disaster reduction
……
Science disputes
Policy disputes
Multiple attributes and dimensions of climate change issue
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Introduction
• Research Question:
• How climate change issue has been framed in China’s policy discourse?
• Climate change issue framing and issue evolution in China
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Data and methodology
• Data source: People’s Daily
Sample selection criteria: all articles mentioning climate change explicitly.Sample size: 4229 articles from 1947 to 2013
Why People’s Daily: official and authoritative newspaper of the government of China and Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party.
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Data and methodology
19471949
19511953
19551957
19591961
19631965
19671969
19711973
19751977
19791981
19831985
19871989
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
20112013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1 0 2 4 2 8 12 19 15 11 19 21 3246 43
10 16 10 14 6 2 3 13 14 24 20 3114 8 1 11 9 9 17 10 10 8 12 15 16 13
26 31 30 4154
20 30 35 27 36 38 36 4356
73 62
22
62
103
415
346
518
578
452
276267
Climate change: change of weather Climate change: global warming
Milestone: 1977.3.30 Discussion on the climate change of the world
Three years of natural disasters around 1960s Endorsement of UNFCCC
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Data and methodology
• Content analysis
Text VariableCause
Effect
Stable Relationship
Judging and Coding Categorizing and Numbering
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Data and methodology
• Technique: Natural Language Processing (NLP)• TextRank for keyword extraction
Weighted graphs with the scores of the vertex
R. Mihalcea and P. Tarau. Textrank: Bringing order into texts. In Proceedings of EMNLP,volume 4, pages 404–411. Barcelona: ACL, 2004
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Data and methodologyKeyword
Weighed Score
20 keywords with scores indicating the significance for every article.
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Data and methodology
关系 观测 进展 地面 北冰洋 配合 南部 接收 煤层气 日元 胃病 光子 生产力 趋于 湘玲文 牡丹 史培军签约国 远东 拉加德 仁武 宗岳 中坦 合营期二十二 功臣 宜居0
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80000
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120000
140000
发展 中方 森林 自然 解决 公社 政治 小麦 公路 要求墨西哥长江习近平时期0
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120000
140000
发展 农业 和平 创新 林业 草原 小麦 成员国 航空 牲畜 荒漠化 建筑0
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All the keywords with the sum of scores in all the articles
Top 500 high scores words Code dictionary extracted from top 500 words
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Data and methodologyDevelopmentdiplomacyClimate changeEconomyEnvironmentEnergySocietyScience & TechnologyEcologyResearchResourceAgricultureMeteorologySafetyGHGFoodPoliticsForestryReformInvestmentIndustryEngineeringInnovationUrbanRuralBiologyCultureEducationDisasterSustainabilityDisaster MitigationTransportationPovertyPublic HealthMilitaryConstruction
Keyword 1
Keyword 2
Keyword 3
Keyword …
Check the meaning by human coder Tagged with a topic label
36 topics
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Data and methodology
Factor 1 Factor2 … Factor #j
Article #1 Score11 … … Score1j
Article #2 … … … …
… … … … …
Article #i Scorei1 … … Scoreij
Data Matrix
150 of 4229 (about 3.5% of all) articles have no tags indicating its topic dimension.
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Preliminary results
19471949
19511953
19551957
19591961
19631965
19671969
19711973
19751977
19791981
19831985
19871989
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
20112013
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Agriculture Biology Climate change Construction Culture Development Diploma DisasterDisaster Mitigation Ecology Economy Education Energy Engineering Environment FoodForestry GHG Industry Innovation Investment Meteorology Military PoliticsPoverty Public Health Reform Research Resource Rural S&T SafetySociety Sustainability Transportation Urban
Climate change: change of weather Climate change: global warming
Milestone: 1977.3.30 Discussion on the climate change of the world
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Preliminary results
Agriculture Disaster DisasterMitigation Economy Environment Industry Meteorology Research Resource SampT Safety Transportati
on
Climate change
Pearson Correlation .592** .765** .522** .770** .698** .480** .658** .737** .511** .497** .371* .630**
Sig. (2-tailed) .001 .000 .003 .000 .000 .007 .000 .000 .004 .005 .043 .000
1947-1977
Development diplomacy Ecology Economy Energy Environmen
t Forestry GHG Meteorology Politics Research Resource Society
Climate change
Pearson Correlation .594* .502* .729** .843** .678** .893** .745** .914** .758** .708** .611* .689** .790**
Sig. (2-tailed) .015 .047 .001 .000 .004 .000 .001 .000 .001 .002 .012 .003 .000
1977-1992
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Preliminary results
1992-2013
Agriculture Construction Culture Development diplomacy DisasterMitig
ation Ecology Economy Education Energy Engineering Environment
Climatechange
Pearson Correlation .529* .519* .673** .696** .766** .730** .512* .682** .477* .867** .443* .844**
Sig. (2-tailed) .011 .013 .001 .000 .000 .000 .015 .000 .025 .000 .039 .000
Food Forestry GHG Industry Innovation Investment Meteorology Politics PublicHeal
th Reform Research Resource Rural SampT Safety Society Transportation
.494* .442* .945** .497* .564** .623** .684** .798** .576** .579** .647** .568** .437* .749** .730** .729** .551**
.020 .039 .000 .019 .006 .002 .000 .000 .005 .005 .001 .006 .042 .000 .000 .000 .008
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Preliminary results
19471950
19531956
19591962
19651968
19711974
19771980
19831986
19891992
19951998
20012004
20072010
20130
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10000
15000
20000
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Weighed_Score Unweighed_Score Difference
Weighted score of climate change by year Difference of unweighted and weighted score of climate change
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Preliminary results
19771979
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
20130
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Ratio 1977-2013
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Ratio 1992-2013
Climate change is covered more and more by other issues. The salience of climate change is being taken advantage of by others.
1977-2013
1992-2013
Define ratio=score of climate change/sum of scores of all factors
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Conclusion and discussion
• Major findings• 1. the shift in the issue implication of “climate change”.• 2. Evolving of framing: • 1947-1977: low concern on climate change and other related issue• 1977-1992: dominance of environment and climate change on issues relating
to climate change• 1992-2013: rapid and explosive increase in the attention to climate change,
but a changing paradigm in understanding climate change issue
• 3. More policy subsystems draw attention to climate change issue while it seems that the salience of climate change is being used.
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Conclusion and discussion
• Implications to policy process• Prevent the issue attention cycle from fading for the chronic risk issue of
climate change need continuous attentions from policy makers.• It’s indispensable to involve different agencies and sectors to address climate
change together, because the climate change issue is not only a natural and environmental issue, but also a social and economic issue.• Though several policy subsystems tend to attach their preferred issues and
solutions to climate change, a strong will of addressing climate change from the top-level decision makers is necessary; China needs a top-down strategy or roadmap and a stronger government sector in climate change issue so as to make climate change “cover” and lead others, which can generate better governance.
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Conclusion and discussion
• To improve the research validity
• 1. data: better way to detect what the policy makers are thinking about?• 2. unsupervised learning technique: is it valid? • 3. the research process: is the human coder reliable and credible?
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Thank youShiwei FAN*, Jianhua XU**, Lan XUE*, Cheng LUO**** School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University**Dept of Environmental Management, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University*** Dept. of Computer Science & Technology ,Tsinghua University
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