Food insecurity hotspots MARCH 2015

Issue 17 I March 2015

In focus•ConflictinIraqhasdisruptedfoodmarkets,leadingtopricehikesinAnbar,SalahAl-DinandKirkuk.Accordingtothe2014-2015StrategicResponsePlan,around5.2millionpeopleareinneedofhumanitarianassistance,andover2.5millionpeoplearecurrentlydisplaced.

•InSyria,9.8millionpeoplerequirefood,agricultureand livelihoods-related assistance, according to theFood Security and Livelihoods sector analysis. Ofthese,around6.8millionpeople live inhighprioritydistrictsandneedcriticalfoodassistance.

•InSouth Sudan,2.5millionpeoplearefacingCrisis (IPCPhase3)orEmergency (IPCPhase4) levelsoffood insecurity because conflict has displaced thepopulation, reduced food production and disruptedmarkets. Phase4Emergency conditionsnowprevailinpartsofJongleiandUnity.

•Floods have displaced 230,000 people in Malawi,50,000inMozambiqueand39,000inMadagascar,in locations already vulnerable to food and nutritionsecurity.

•TheEbolaepidemic inGuinea, LiberiaandSierra Leone hasdisruptedmarketsand tradeand led toincreasing food insecurity. According to the Cadre Harmonisé, as of March, 1.2 million people are inCrisis(IPCPhase3),afigurethatisexpectedtoriseto2.2millioninJune.

•Conflict in northern Nigeria is leading to massivepopulation displacement, disrupted markets andinsecurity in bordering areas of Cameroon, Chad andNiger.

•The ‘short rains’ (‘Deyr’) season of late 2014 hasperformed poorly across East Africa. North-east Kenya and southern Somalia have been affectedby persistently drier than average conditions. Thiscompounds the effect of significant rainfall deficitsduringpreviousseasons, resulting inextended long-termdrynessaffectingpastoralistresources.

•South Africa’s first maize production forecastestimatesthe2015harvesttobetheworstin8years,with a drop of 21 percent relative to the five-yearaverageand32percentlessthanlastyear’sbumpercrop.

•Drought in Central America has left 2.1 millionpeoplefoodinsecure.Theaffectedpeoplewillrequiremore food assistance than usual until the nextharvestinAugust.

•Tropical Cyclone Pam made landfall on March 13

near the islands of Vanuatu with sustained windspeedsof270km/h.Initialestimatesofhumanitarianimpactsuggestlargedevastation,withabout170,000people, of which 20,000 were identified as poor,beingaffected.

Global Food Security UpdateTRACKING food SeCuRITy TReNdS IN VuLNeRAbLe CouNTRIeS

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The Global Food Security Update provides a quarterly overview of key food security trends in vulnerablecountries.InformationisprovidedbyWFPVAMfieldteamsandpartners.

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Global Food Security Update

Regional highlights

eAST AfRICA •In February 2015, 7.8million peoplewere inCrisis (IPCPhase3)orEmergency (IPCPhase4),withthelargest numbers in ethiopia (2.9 million) South Sudan (2.5million),Kenya (1.5million),Somalia (731,000)anduganda(180,000).

•According to the Greater Horn of Africa ClimateOutlook Forum, normal to above-normal rains areforecastfromMarchthroughMayinUganda(exceptthe Karamoja region), parts of western Ethiopia,westernKenya, north-easternSomalia andmost ofSouth Sudan, as well as the north-west croppingareasofTanzania, Rwandaandburundi.Thefoodsecuritysituationis likelytoimproveintheseareasonceharvestsstartinJuly/August2015.

•However,normaltobelow-normalrainsareforecastforthegreaterpartofKenya,South-CentralSomaliaand most areas of Ethiopia, djibouti and centralTanzania.Thiscould lead to furtherdeteriorationofpastureandwaterresources,affectingthefoodandnutritionsecuritysituation.Theworseningfoodandnutritionsecuritycouldbeexacerbatedbyadditionalfactors, including the poor ‘short rains’ (‘Deyr’)season of late 2014. North-east, eastern and farsouthernKenyaandsouthernSomaliahavesufferedpersistently drier thanaverage conditions since theearlystagesofthe‘Deyr’season.

•According to the most recent IPC update, 2.5million people faced Emergency (IPC Phase 4)andCrisis(IPCPhase3) food insecuritybetweenJanuaryandMarch2015.Themaindriversoffoodinsecurity in the country include conflict-relateddisplacement, disruptions to livestock and cropproduction,andhighstaplefoodprices.

•Conflicthasledtotheinternaldisplacementof1.4million South Sudanese, mostly in the states ofJonglei,UnityandUpperNile.Ithasalsocausedsharp increases in thepriceof staple foods,and

it has reduced stock levels. Stocks from ownproductionareexpectedtodepletewithinthefirstquarterof2015intheworst-affectedcounties.

•Extremely limited humanitarian access, lowhouseholdstocksandpoorly functioningmarketsmean that households in Jonglei and Unity arefacing Emergency food insecurity. Food securityin these areas could worsen if humanitarianassistance isnotscaledupand ifagreements toceasehostilitiesdonothold.

South Sudan Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)Infocus

Updated IPC classification for South Sudan, January-March 2015

Source: IPC.

Legend

•Whileoverallcropprospectsarefavourable,estimatedproduction in the westernSahel (Cape Verde, theGambia,Guinea-Bissau,andSenegal) is32percentbelowthefive-yearaverage,accordingtotheCILSS.Grainprices are aboveaverage in areaswhere thecropproductionwaslessfavourable:northernMali, Niger, Senegal, MauritaniaandChad.

•InsecurityinnorthernNigeriacontinuestodisplacethepopulation:over100,000refugeeshavearrivedineasternNigerand66,000inCameroon’sFarNorthregion, according to UNHCR. Nutrition screeningshave revealed GAM rates among newly arrivedchildrenof18percent,whichisabovetheemergencythreshold (15 percent). An estimated70,000 localpeoplehavebeendisplacedinCameroon’sFarNorth.

Issue 17 I March2015

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WeST AfRICA

Current and projected food insecurity in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone

February-March 2015 June-August 2015

Source: CILSS.

Notanalysed

Minimal

Stressed

Crisis

Emergency

Famine

Legend

•AccordingtotheFebruaryCadre Harmonisé,1,235,000peopleinLiberia, Sierra LeoneandGuineaareinaCrisissituationnowandneedimmediateassistance.

•WFP data indicates that food insecurity levels areworseinruralareasthaninurbanareas.Inallthreecountries, the poorest households and householdsheadedbywomenseemtobemostvulnerabletofoodinsecurity.

•InMarch,markets and trade began to recoverwiththe liftingofquarantinesand reopeningof themaincrossingpointsbetweentheEbola-affectedcountriesandneighbouringcountriessuchasSenegalandCôte d’Ivoire. Prices of local/imported rice and palm oilremainedmostly stable in Liberia andSierra Leone,although they are still above average because of

theappreciationof theUSdollar. InFebruary,palmoil prices began to recover in eastern Sierra Leoneand ForestGuinea, signalling a recovery inmarketsandtrade.IntheruralareasmostaffectedbyEbola,householdpurchasingpowerislow;disruptedlabourmarkets are limiting access to food for householdswhodependonwagelabour.

•Householdfoodconsumptionisexpectedtodeterioratein the next four to six months because of reducedpurchasing power and lower food stocks caused byEbola.TheleanseasonstartsinMay/June.AccordingtotheCadre Harmonisé,betweenJuneandAugust2015,anestimated2,215,000peoplewillbeinCrisisinthethreecountries.

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Global Food Security Update

•Although last year’s harvests were generally abovenormal throughout the region, the current season is

raisingconcernsbecauseoftheconcurrenceofdroughtsandfloodsatcriticalstagesofthegrowingseason.

SouTHeRN AfRICA

•Floodshavedisplaced230,000peopleinMalawi,50,000inMozambiqueand39,000inMadagascar,all in locations already vulnerable to food andnutrition security.Thefloodshavecreated foodscarcityandledtoalarmingpricehikesinisolatedmarkets of between 30 percent to 130 percentabovethefive-yearaverage.PriceincreasesareespeciallypronouncedinMadagascar.

•Madagascar: The country has had excessiverainfallsinceJanuary2015,exceptforthesouthernregion.Therainhasdamagedricefields,includinginmajorrice-producingareas.FoodtradetothecapitalAntananarivohasbeendisruptedbecauseof poor road conditions in rural areas, sendingfoodpricessoaringinthecapital.Thecontinuouswet weather has also disrupted the productionofwood charcoal, themain cooking fuel for themajorityofthepopulation(eveninurbanareas),leadingtoasharpincreaseinitsprice.

Inthesouthernregion,ashortercroppingseasondue to recurring droughts is impacting food

security.AsofMarch16,OCHAisreportingthatanestimated200,000peopleintheGreatSouthareinneedofimmediatefoodassistance.

•Malawi: There was persistent above-averagerainfallinJanuaryandFebruary,causingseriousfloodingacrossthecountry.UNsourcesindicatethe floods have displaced 230,000 people,damaging roads and bridges. The worst-hitdistricts were Zomba, Blantyre Rural andMulanje.Arablelandthataccountsfor5percentof the country’s annual agriculture outputwasflooded by late January. Food shortages arepersistentandonalargescale.

•Central Mozambique: This region has hadpersistentabove-average rainfall since January2015.UNandgovernmentsourcesindicatethatby mid-February, 144,330 people had beenaffected,mostofwhom live in theprovinceofZambézia(119,564people).

flooding in Madagascar, Malawi and MozambiqueInfocus

•Drier thanaverageconditionshaveaffectedpartsofeastern South Africaandextendedintobotswana,most of Namibia and southern Angola. SouthernMozambique and southern Zimbabwe were alsoaffected.Thedelayedonsetof theseasoncombinedwith a poor mid-season rainfall pattern at criticalstagesofmaizedevelopment,haveledtounfavourableexpectationsforregionalmaizeproduction.

•South Africa’s first maize production forecastestimates the 2015 harvest to be the worst in 8years,withadropof21percentrelativetothefive-year average and 32 percent less than last year’sbumpercrop.LowerSouthAfricanproductioncouldimpactmaizemarketsregionally.Thecountriesmostexposed to such increases are Lesotho, Botswana,Namibia,ZimbabweandsouthernMozambique.

Price trends in Antananarivo, Madagascar

Source: WFP.

Commodity % Increase from 20 february to 5 March 2015

WoodCharcoal(bag) 33%

Bread(loaf) 33%

Flour(kg) 40%

Rice(kg) 8%

Vegetables(kg) 150%

Potatoes(kg) 20%

Issue 17 I March2015

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•In the democratic People’s Republic of Korea (dPRK), official Public Distribution System foodrationswerecutbyalmosthalfinAugust2014,from400 to250gramsperpersonperday–possiblyareflection of general food scarcity. Such low rationsizes were last seen in 2011. The rations haveincreasedsinceOctober,followingthemainharvest,butthefoodsecuritysituationinthepastfewmonthshasbeenworrisome.

•An FAO report issued in February found that afterincreasingforthreeconsecutiveyears,foodproductionin DPRK was stagnant in 2014. The country wasaffected by low rainfall in the winter, followed bydry spells during the main growing season (April–August),especially inthemaingrowingareas inthesouthandwest–resultingina10percentdecreasein the production of paddy rice. While these losseswerereportedlyoffsetbya17percentincreaseintheproductionofmaize, the food security prospects for2015areconcerning.

•FAOhasalsoforecastanaverage18percentdropin2015 early season crop production ofwheat, barleyandpotatoescomparedtolastyearduetoseed,waterandfuelscarcity.Althoughrelativelysmall,theearlyseason harvest plays an important role in nationalfoodsecurityasitsignalstheendoftheleanseason.In this regard, the forecast suggests that the leanseasonmightbemoreprolongedandseverethisyear.

•The food insecurity situation in north-westernPakistan remains highly worrying, with over 1.7million people from the FATA province (FederallyAdministered Tribal Areas) displaced in theneighboring Khyber Pakhtunwa province. Of these,about600,000arerecentinternallydisplacedpeople(IDPs)who fled FATA’s NorthWaziristan agency inJune 2014, following the military offensive in thearea. Inaddition, thereareasignificantnumberofdisplaced families inFATAwho-whilenotofficiallyregistered as IDPs – were found to be highly foodinsecure in recent assessments. An IPC analysisconducted in November 2014 found that three ofFATA’s agencies (Orakzai, North Waziristan andSouthWaziristan)wereclassifiedasbeinginphase4(emergency).

•Cyclone Pam made landfall near the islands ofVanuatu on 13 March 2015, with sustained windspeeds of 270 km/h. According to an initial WFPestimate, 170,000 people, of which 20,000 wereidentified as poor, have been affected. HouseholdsalongtheeasternpartsofShefaprovinceandTafeaweredirectly in thepathofCyclonePam.Resiliencelevelsintheseareasarelowerwithmanypeoplelivingin traditional housing and depending on subsistencefarming.Mostareassumedtohavelosttheirhomesandlivelihoods.Amongthe32,000peopleaffectedinthisarea,5,000wereidentifiedaspoor.

ASIA

Southern Africa - Total rainfall (percent of average) by 10 March 2015

Source: WFP VAM, Seasonal Monitor.

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<30%

30-50%

50-70%

70-90%

90-110%

110-130%

130-150%

150-200%

>200%

maincropareas

seaandlakes

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MIddLe eAST ANd CeNTRAL ASIA•Iraq: Accordingtothe2014-2015StrategicResponsePlan, 5.2million people in Iraq need humanitarianassistance.ThelatestfiguresfromIOMindicatethatover, 2.5million people are displaced. The conflicthasmadefoodpriceshighandvolatileinAnbarandKirkuk,andinpartsofSalahAl-Din,accordingtoWFPmonitoring.Intheseareas,thefoodbasketcosts25to 30 percent more than in the capital Baghdad.Wheat flour prices in Anbar, Kirkuk and SalahAl-Din are more than twice the price in Baghdad,presumably because of reduced distributions ofpublicdistributionsystem(PDS)wheatflourintheseareas,andshortagesoffreshfoodsarealsoreported.The conflict has also hit the unskilled wage labourmarketsincentralgovernorates,reducingemploymentopportunities and loweringwage rates, especially inSalahAl-Din.Asaresult,householdpurchasingpowerislowerinareasaffectedbytheconflict.Satellite imagery offers a mixed forecast of cropconditionsastheharvestseasonapproachesinApril.Whilevegetationconditionsarehealthyinthenorthandsouth,theyarestressedintheconflict-affectedgovernorates of Anbar, Salah Al-Din and Diyala.Thissuggeststhattheconflicthashadanimpactonirrigation,agriculturalinputsandfieldwork.

•Syria: Some 9.8 million people1 require variouslevels of food, agriculture and livelihood-relatedassistance, according to the Food Security andLivelihoods sector analysis. Of these, around 6.8millionpeopleliveinhighprioritydistrictsandneedcriticalfoodassistance.Therehasbeenabigincrease

1. FoodSecurityandLivelihoodsSector,WholeofSyria,FoodSecurityPrioritizationMatrix(2014).

in the use of negative coping strategies in the lastyear, ranging from the saleofproductiveassets totheengagementofchildreninlabour,risingratesofearlymarriageandtheinvolvementof individuals–includingchildren–witharmedgroups.2 In January, a new decree pushed up the price ofbread, diesel and gas. Compared to August 2011,priceshavegenerallyincreasedby120percent,whilefood prices are up by 131 percent. The purchasingpowerandfoodsecuritysituationofpoorhouseholds,whomainlydependon localmarkets,hasworsenedfurther.WFPpricemonitoringdatashowssubstantialprice increases forwheat flour and rice since 2011.Between July 2014 and January 2015, the averageretailpriceofbreadroseby55percent.Winterstorm‘Huda’broughtsnow,heavyrainfallandstrongwindstoSyriaandneighbouringcountriesinJanuary 2015. Poor Syrian households have beenseverely affected by the storm, especially IDPslivingincampsandinformalsettlements.Thestormalsodamagedtheagriculturalsector.

• Palestine: Food security has been deterioratingbecause of displacement, livelihood disruption andincreasing unemployment. From December 2014to February 2015, Palestinian Authority employeesonly received 60 percent of their salaries becauseof budgetary restrictions. Reconstruction since theAugust2014conflicthasbeenslow,andtheelectricityandfuelcrisisisconstrainingtheeconomy.

2. SavetheChildren,January2015.Understanding livelihoods in Northern Syria: how people are coping with repeated shocks, constant change and an uncertain future.

Retail Prices of Wheat flour and Rice in Syria

Source: WFP.

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Issue 17 I March2015

LATIN AMeRICA ANd CARIbbeAN

IPC food security classification for Haiti, March-June 2015

•The long dry spell during the first cropping seasonof 2014 (primera) has affected the food securitysituation of the most vulnerable households inparts of el Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras andNicaragua. WFP, government, UN agencies andNGOsjointlyconductedfoodsecurityassessmentsinSeptember2014.Theyfoundthat2.1millionpeopleare moderately or severely food insecure, including25 percent of households in Guatemala (874,000people), 36 percent of households in Honduras(682,000 people), and 13 percent of households inElSalvador(85,000people)andNicaragua(460,000people,basedonaninitialestimate).

•Indrought-affectedareas,thevastmajoritydependonbasic grain production or agricultural daily labour forincome.Asignificantnumberofparticipants reportedthattheirmostimportantincomesourcewasaffectedby the drought. High levels of crisis and emergencylevellivelihoodcopingstrategieswerefoundinallthreecountries,asshowninthegraphontheright.

•Crisis strategies included consuming seed reservesand reducing expenditure on health, education andagricultural inputs.Emergencystrategiesconsistedofbegging, selling breeding livestock and selling land.Migrationwasalsoanissue.

•Ofparticularconcernwasthepercentageofhouseholdswith low or medium levels of dietary diversity, asituation affecting 84 percent of households inHonduras,77percentinGuatemalaand41percentinElSalvador.Acrossallthreecountriestherewasverylowconsumptionofiron-richfoods,eveninhouseholdswith good food consumption. Households with poorconsumptionalsoshowedadeficitinproteinandfoodsrichinvitaminA.

•Although the postrera seasonal rains and croppingseasonwasgenerallynormal,therelativeimportanceof thesecondaryharvestcoupledwith the livelihood

impactsofthefirstharvestlossesmeantherewillbeacontinuedneedforhumanitarianandlivelihoodassistance until the next primera harvest in August2015.

•InHaiti,apersistentlackofraininmarginalagriculturalareas has led to amediocre 2014/2015 spring crop,whichis40percentbelow2013/2014.AccordingtotheDecember IPC, food insecurity is forecast to increaseduringtheMarch–Juneleanseason,withCrisis(IPC3)levelsoffoodinsecuritypredictedinareasoftheSouthEast,GonaveIslandandintheNorthWest.

use of crisis and emergency livelihood coping strategies in drought-affected countries

Legend

Source: IPC.

Information sourcesCILSS www.cilss.bffAo www.fao.orgfeWS NeT www.fews.netfSNAu www.fsnau.orgfSNWG www.disasterriskreduction.net/fsnwgIoM www.iom.intIPC www.ipcinfo.org

oCHA www.unocha.orguNHCR www.unhcr.orguNICef www.unicef.orguNRWA www.unrwa.orgWfP www.wfp.org/food-security http://foodprices.vam.wfp.org/ALPS-at- a-glance.aspx

Acronyms CILSS ComitépermanentInter-Etats deLuttecontrelaSécheresse dansleSahelCfSAM CropandFoodSecurityAssessment MissiondPRK DemocraticPeople’sRepublicofKoreafAo FoodandAgricultureOrganizationof theUnitedNationsfSNWG FoodSecurityand NutritionWorkingGroupfeWS NeT FamineEarlyWarningSystemsNetwork

GAM GlobalAcuteMalnutritionIdP internallydisplacedpersonIoM InternationalOrganizationforMigrationIPC IntegratedFoodSecurityPhase ClassificationuNCHR UnitedNationsHighCommissioner forRefugeesVAM VulnerabilityAnalysisandMappingWfP WorldFoodProgramme

Regional focal pointsAsia: SiemonHollema(siemon.hollema@wfp.org)east Africa: ElliotVhurumuku(elliot.vhurumuku@wfp.org)Latin America and the Caribbean: MargarethaBarkhof(margaretha.barkhof@wfp.org)Middle east, North Africa and Central Asia: MarikoKawabata(mariko.kawabata@wfp.org)Southern Africa: JoaoManja(joao.manja@wfp.org)West Africa: Anne-ClaireMouilliez(anne-claire.mouilliez@wfp.org)

for more information, contact:

ArifHusainChief Economist and Deputy Director, Policy and Programme Division – Analysis and Trends Service arif.husain@wfp.org

MethodologyIPC standardized protocols respond to the need fora common approach for classifying various foodinsecuritysituations,withinandamongcountries,andacrosstime.

Acutefoodinsecurityisclassifiedaccordingto5phases:

Phase 1:None/MinimalPhase 2:StressedPhase 3:CrisisPhase 4:EmergencyPhase 5:HumanitarianCatastrophe/FamineFormoreinformationonIPCpleasevisitwww.ipcinfo.org

Allrightsreserved.Reproductionanddisseminationofmaterialinthisinformationproductforeducationalorothernon-commercialusesareauthorizedwithoutanypriorwrittenpermissionfromthecopyrightholdersprovidedthesourceisfullyacknowledged.Reproductionofmaterialinthisinformationproductforresaleorothercommercialpurposesisprohibitedwithoutwrittenpermission.Applicationsforsuchpermissionshouldbeaddressedtowfp.vaminfo@wfp.org.Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialinthemap(s)donotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofWFPconcerningthelegalorconstitutionalstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorsea,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.©WFP2015

World food Programme ViaCesareGiulioViola,68/7000148Rome,Italywww.wfp.org/food-security