islamic finance bulletin december 2013
DESCRIPTION
A monthly update on Islamic and conventional stock markets in Middle-East, Far East and Africa Regions. It also covers bonds, sukuk, commodities, recent developments, an update on accounting issues as well as external stories.TRANSCRIPT
Islamic Finance Bulletin
December 2013
lums.lancs.ac.uk/research/centres/golcer
Gulf One Lancaster Centre For Economic Research
Page 2
From the Editor
As we reach year-end and peer into the prospects for 2014, it is clear enough that international markets
are on the cusp of expecting some critical sense of change.
Whether it is the extended buoyancy of global stocks, the nervous retreat of bonds and sukuk, the
middling tendencies of oil and copper, or the receding attraction of gold, all eyes are on the balance
of economic and policy outcomes in the US, and whether China’s pause and reorientation amount to a
significant shift in gears.
While we have documented the major trends and minor fluctuations one way and another in 2013, and
perceived the dominance of these two leading influences, the new year will represent not only a turn of
the calendar but a new phase for investors to get to grips with. At least they are armed with the facts to
address the relevant concerns.
This month we also host a contribution by Thomson Reuters on the Islamic economy, providing another
baseline of understanding as perspectives on Shariah-compliant business opportunity are expanded,
notably by Dubai, into non-financial spheres.
Our in-house piece, meanwhile, addresses the commercial and strategic realities that have attended the
funding programme of Emirates airline, considering both traditional and Islamic bond options to back its
own particular expansion in a dynamic industry.
We wish all readers season’s greetings and a prosperous outlook for the year ahead.
ContentsHIGHLIGHTS (p.3)
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS (p.4)
VIEWPOINT (p.7)
FEATURE (p.10)
STOCK MARKETS (p.14)
COMMODITIES (p.17)
BOND AND CDS MARKETS (p.20)
PERSPECTIVE (p.23)
DIARY (p.24)
Page 3
Islamic Economy: A key event in the Gulf this year
was Dubai’s pitch for leadership of the Islamic
economy, stretching the view of Shariah-compliant
opportunity beyond the financial field. Our viewpoint
article explains the drivers animating segments such
as travel and food, relating especially to population
and consumption trends, emerging markets growth
and trade, and such additional factors as the plans of
conventional multinationals, and communications
technology.
Oil: As cause and effect of the state of the world
economy, oil has had a sideways feel for most of 2013. A
lot of attention may be paid at this point to any signs of
a breakout in prices reflecting interpretations of the net
impact of the Federal Reserve’s tapering plans relative
to underlying business conditions. Crude markets
into December also reflected expectations of both
global supply and demand fundamentals for 2014, and
variations in US inventories.
Gold: By contrast with oil, gold’s direction has been
clear for some time, and sentiment has anticipated
the implications of revised Fed policy. The prospect
of QE’s tapering has been taken to indicate a
diminution of the monetary stimulus that in any case
has failed to ignite an inflationary reaction that might
motivate the precious metal higher. Without running
yield to compensate for lack of capital growth, it has
been the downside that is being thoroughly tested.
Highlights
Recent Developments in the Islamic Finance Industry
Britain will issue ‘one-off’ Islamic bond
Following last month’s initiative by the UK to become
the first hub for Islamic finance in Europe, its plan to
issue sukuk during 2014 is unlikely to be repeated,
according to the head of the country’s debt-issuing
agency. The government is planning to sell a £200m
sukuk as clearly a symbolic and one-off transaction.
No details have yet been given about the timing of
the sale. The government is working closely with the
Treasury as well as with experts in Islamic finance.
Britain first announced plans for a sovereign sukuk
five years ago, but no issuance materialised, since the
government then decided that the required structure
was too expensive.
Source: Reuters, December 5th
A clearer picture emerges with this update on the
prime minister’s announcement, GOLCER suggests.
We still consider this an important step by a Western
country in terms of the industry’s growth, as the
first and largest sovereign sukuk issuance outside
a Muslim country. At the same time, it will bring
potential benefits to London as a financial centre.
Islamic banking to be deepened in Europe
Private investors from some Gulf Arab countries,
including a royal family from the UAE, plan to establish
the first fully-fledged Islamic bank headquartered in
the euro zone. It will be named Eurisbank, with an
initial capital of 60 million euros ($80m). The bank will
offer retail, corporate and private banking services,
with branches in Paris, Brussels, the Netherlands and
Frankfurt. Eurisbank will be owned by an unnamed
country from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
and other private investors. The founders of the
institution plan to apply for a licence in January 2014,
with expectations to obtain regulatory approvals by
April. By reference, the European Central Bank and
the Malaysia-based Islamic Financial Services Board
worked during 2013 on a joint project study on Islamic
finance in Europe.
Source: ArabianBusiness.com, November 26th
GOLCER perceives this move as being in line with
the UK’s potential to become a hub for Islamic
finance in Europe. It seems that Gulf still would
like to lead the sector, by operating several Islamic
banking branches in the euro zone. The Islamic
finance industry’s emergence in the region has
been very slow, with some attempts by London and
Luxembourg to market themselves as the hosts of
Islamic bonds. This became more evident after the
recent financial crisis, as European governments
have since shown more interest in the sector.
This tendency could be attributed to the claimed
weakness of conventional finance as exposed
during the credit crunch, together with an interest in
attracting oil-rich funding countries.
Dubai’s Expo 2020 win to boost sukuk
Sales of Shariah-compliant debt by Dubai are
expected to surge after the emirate’s successful bid
for the staging of Expo 2020, with the aim to spur
construction projects. Winning the Expo is likely
to increase Dubai’s economic growth rate to 6.4%
over the next three years, as reported by Barclays.
Expectations are that Dubai will spend almost 6
billion euros ($8.1bn) on infrastructure projects
during this period. Raising funds to cover such
outlays would require the right financial structures,
with sukuk tending to be the preferred route of the
government. The emirate will speed up plans for
a 5 billion dirham ($1.36bn) expansion of the city’s
metro network, with a new purpose-built exhibition
centre with themed pavilions to be constructed in
the desert to the south of the city.
Source: Bloomberg, November 27th Page 4
Recent Developments in the Islamic Finance Industry
GOLCER finds that the Expo win will give Dubai more
credibility, but it will have a tough financial target to
meet in coming years, given its need to find cheaper
finance, i.e. lower borrowing costs. Still, however, a
financial burden looms as the potential increase in
spending raises the risk associated with further debt
accumulation by Dubai entities.
Australia to launch Islamic pension
Melbourne plans to launch an Islamic pension fund
in January, collaborating with some of Australia’s
most well-known Muslim organisations. The purpose
is to set up a $1.5trn private pension system. The
fund has received regulatory approval, and has been
developed with the Muslim Community Cooperative
of Australia and the Islamic Council of Victoria (the
governing body for the state’s Muslim community).
Private pension schemes are also making
inroads in majority-Muslim countries including
Pakistan, Turkey and Malaysia, with early experience
suggesting Islamic fund managers can benefit from
such efforts.
Source: Reuters, December 20th
This initiative will target a small and scattered
Muslim consumer base that has yet to fully
embrace retirement savings. GOLCER thinks it will
be attractive also to other ethically-inclined fund
investors. However, unlike counterparts in the
ethical sector in Western markets, Islamic pension
funds globally still struggle for lack of scale and
poor management, topics which still need to be
considered by Islamic scholars.
Next stage for MENA region
Expectations for 2014 are that rapidly-growing
Islamic-based finance will drive the next phase of
economic growth across the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA), as discussed in Euromoney’s Qatar
Conference during December. The event provided
critical insight into the state of the global economy
and the MENA region’s growing role as a centre for
Islamic-based finance, with Shariah-compliant assets
estimated to be worth $1.4trn in the next two to three
years.
Source: Khaleej Times, December 12th
GOLCER sees Islamic banking in MENA having some
particular characteristics which are liable to make the
industry in the region flourish. Banks in the region
contain an ‘Islamic orientation’, given the majority
Muslim population. MENA already accounts for more
than the half of the global figure given for Islamic
finance assets.
Indonesia aims for insurance legislation
Insurers in Indonesia, reflecting South-east Asia’s
largest economy, are proposing a new law that will
require the spin-off of their Shariah-compliant units.
This move is expected to reshape Indonesia’s Islamic
insurance market. A draft law is now with parliament,
but remains under discussion and may not be
stipulated this year. It will cover all areas including
licensing, market conduct, and corporate governance
for both takaful and non-takaful firms. Indonesia’s
takaful sector has attracted global firms keen to
capitalize on rapid economic growth in the world’s
most populous Muslim country, with 240 million
consumers.
Source: Reuters, December 11th
It seems that Indonesia’s step is an example that 2014
is bringing more support and promise for the industry
worldwide and in general. Initiatives, regulations
and accountancy rules appear to be accumulating.
GOLCER thinks that such legislation will help the
country’s nascent Islamic finance takaful market,
which still lags behind neighbour Malaysia’s. It’s time
for the industry to have a solid platform supporting
Islamic banking, in order to allow fair competition
with the conventional sector, which already has a long
history of operation.
Page 5
Page 6
IFSB seeks to tighten oversight
The Kuala Lumpur-based Islamic Financial Services
Board (IFSB) is revising guidelines on the supervision of
Islamic finance institutions around the world, helping
tighten regulatory oversight of industry practices.
During 2013 the body issued separate guidelines on
liquidity risk management and stress testing, while it
is currently reviewing a draft on capital adequacy. The
187 members of IFSB are likely to bring during 2014
more detailed guidance in response to the global
financial crisis, following the trend towards tightening of
regulation among conventional financial markets. Revised
guidelines detail criteria for using sukuk as tier-1 and tier-2
regulatory capital, a practice pioneered in the past year by
Islamic banks in the UAE and Turkey. The latest update by
IFSB complements stricter Basel rules, agreed globally in
an attempt to make banks safer after the 2007-09 credit
crisis.
Source: Reuters, December 6th
GOLCER finds that guidelines provided by the IFSB,
while important, lack additional clarification and details
compared to the growing sophistication of the global
Islamic banking industry. Still, IFSB represents one of the
main standard-setting bodies for Islamic finance, and
has been gaining prominence in several majority-Muslim
countries.
Pakistan’s Islamic banking committee
As a marked forthcoming step in one of the largest
Muslim-population countries, Pakistan’s Ministry of
Finance has set up a committee to explore areas for
promoting Islamic banking. This is not the first such
initiative – for instance, regulators have already worked on
a media awareness campaign. The aim is to expand Islamic
banks’ share of the total banking sector to 15% by 2017.
The committee will submit recommendations on ten areas
by December 2014, covering legal hurdles to converting
banks into Islamic ones and the changes required to
remove those obstacles.
Source: Reuters, December 11th
GOLCER believes that, in advancing this initiative,
it’s time for Pakistan to build a long-term, healthy
prospect for its own Shariah-compliant sector, as
well as improve the regulatory environment, given
that the industry is increasing in size country by
country across the world.
Four major Islamic market-based drivers are shaping
the growth and prominence of the Islamic economy.
These drivers are (i) demographic, (ii) Islamic values-
driven consumption, (iii) economic growth, and (iv)
intra-OIC trade growth.
In addition, four major global environment-based
drivers are also facilitating this Islamic economy.
These are: (v) global multinationals participation, (vi)
global markets seeking opportunities, (vii) growing
ethical consumption, and (viii) the revolutionizing
communication technology.
These drivers can be discussed in turn.
(i) Large, young & fast-growing global Muslim
demographic
The world’s Muslim population is expected to rise
from 1.6bn in 2010 (23.4% of global) to 2.2bn by
2030 (26.4%), according to Pew Research Center’s
Forum on Religion & Public Life.
The ‘youth bulge’ among Muslim populations in the
Arab countries is now a well-known phenomenon.
Today, people under 30 make up about 60% of the
population of these countries. While the Pew Report
projects that the ‘youth bulge’ is peaking, it also
expects the global Muslim population to remain
comparatively youthful for decades to come.
By 2030, 29% of the global young population (15-29)
is projected to be Muslim. The implication presents
significant economic challenges (job creation,
training and education) for the host economies,
as well as opportunities (young consumer market,
entrepreneurship engine).
(ii) Large & fast-growing Global Islamic economies
The 57 mostly Muslim-majority member countries
of the OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation)
represented 8.9% of global GDP in 2012. These
economies are also growing at a faster rate than the
global economy. The projected growth of the OIC
markets 2013 through 2018 is expected to average
6.3%, compared to the global 5.3%, based on IMF
projections.
(iii) Islamic ethos/values increasingly driving
lifestyles and business practices
Islam is seen by Muslims as a way of life. The
unique Muslim lifestyle consumer drivers are
centered around food (‘halal’ options), family-
friendly environments, accommodation of religious
practices, gender relation nuances, modest clothing,
education, finances, and many other areas.
Many of these values have universal appeal, and
thus many products and services do not have to
be exclusively positioned for Muslims. An example
is that the majority of Islamic finance customers
in Malaysia are non-Muslims, attracted by its risk-
sharing, ethical and non-interest based financing
models.
According to a 2012 study by The Pew Forum,
87% of Muslims globally consider religion ‘very
important’, and 93% fast in the month Ramadan. In
essence, faith as a key market attribute is already
real and growing for Muslim consumers. The global
Islamic finance market (on risk-sharing, ethical, and
non-interest based financing models) has over $1.3
trillion in assets, and continues to grow in the 10-
15% range per annum.
Defining the Global Islamic Economy
by Sayd Farook and Rafi-uddin Shikoh
Viewpoint
Page 7
Halal food consumption market is potentially
over $1 trillion, representing 16.6% of the
global food expenditure. Other emerging
sectors include travel, clothing/fashion,
pharma/cosmetics, media and recreation. In
travel, many Muslim travellers are travelling
to ‘Muslim-friendly’ travel destinations (e.g.
Turkey, Malaysia), given values-based affinity,
security, comfort (e.g. halal food, family-friendly
environments, prayer facilities, etc).
(iv) Intra-OIC trade growth
There is a clear drive to develop intra-OIC trade,
which is also facilitating development of the
Islamic economy sectors.
Intra-OIC trade among the 57 mostly Muslim-
majority member countries has grown to 17%
from 13% in 2000. In 2005 the OIC had set a
target of 20% Intra-OIC trade by 2015.
As an example, Malaysia’s trade with the UAE
reached $8.0bn in 2012 increasing from $6.8bn
in 2011, making the UAE Malaysia’s largest
trade partner. This growth is facilitating Islamic
finance and halal food related-trade as well.
(v) Participation of global multinationals
The OIC countries are very much an integrated
part of the global economy as suppliers and
consumers, as well as providers and seekers of
foreign investments.
This global interconnectedness is driving global
companies -- ranging from banks globally
(Deutche Bank, HSBC, Citi) to consumer product
and retail companies (Nestle, Carrefour) -- to
not only participate but also lead in the Islamic
economy development given their large scale
and stature. Their engagement gives the Islamic
economy sectors much global credibility and boost.
(vi) Developed economies seeking growth markets
Developed economies are seeking new growth
markets. Asia in particular has been a region where
much of the focus is centered.
Political changes in the Asian markets, the ability
to broaden governments’ horizons with regards to
investments, and relatively easy and inexpensive
communication are all factors that have led
developed economies to quadruple their direct
investment within a decade.
(vii) Ethics and social consciousness globally
influencing industries
A growing global sentiment around ethical- and
socially-conscious businesses is emerging. The
recent global financial crisis raised alarm bells
globally, with financial services regulators, business
educators and consumers all reassessing the ethical
focus of various business practices.
In addition, various large-scale integrity issues in
the global food value chain as well as a growing
concern around inhumane animal treatment in
food production, together with the environmental
impacts of an increasingly crowded world and
economies, are all having tangible impact on
government policies, education systems and
consumer behaviours. These trends are also
influencing the potential of Islamic economy
sectors that have ethical and socially-responsible
underpinnings.
(viii) Technology and connectedness
Communication technologies are revolutionizing
every possible area of our lives. The internet
connected the world like never before, and now
major global platforms of social media and mobile
Page 8
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services are giving a big boost to develop the globally-
distributed, fragmented demand for halal food,
Islamic finance and related lifestyle services. Muslim
consumers are a big part of this digital revolution. The
cellular subscription base of Muslims globally is 1.3bn,
21% of the global figure.
Primer on the Islamic Economy
What do we mean by the Global Islamic Economy?
The global Islamic economy has core sectors and
their ecosystems, which are structurally affected by
Islamic values-driven consumer lifestyle and business
practices.
These core sectors are primarily centered around
financial services and food, but also include lifestyle
sectors of travel, clothing/fashion, pharmaceuticals/
cosmetics, and media/ recreation. Other segments
include education and philanthropy.
The consumers of the Islamic economy are primarily
Muslims but also include others outside the Islamic
faith who share similar values. The specific Islamic
value-influenced consumer practices include the
consumption of halal (lawful) food, Islamic financing,
modest clothing, family-friendly tourism, as well as
other services with special considerations on gender
interactions and religious practices. The demand
also extends to business practices that seek Islamic
business financing, investment and insurance services.
The Islamic economy collectively creates value for
the consumers and economies involved. It also has
a major potential to contribute to global well-being
through its underlying socially-conscious ethos.
The potential of the Islamic economy
In aggregate, the global expenditure of Muslim
consumers on food and lifestyle sectors is being
estimated to be $1.62 trillion in 2012, and to reach
$2.47 trillion by 2018. In addition, Islamic financial
assets are estimated to be $1.35 trillion (total
disclosed), growing at 15-20% a year in most core
markets.
While the size and potential of Islamic finance
sectors have been established, it is the halal food
and lifestyle sectors with their significant potential
size that present a new set of opportunities. Key
estimates include:
• Foodmarket:$1,088bnofglobalMuslims’
expenditure on food and non-alcoholic beverages
(2012) -- 16.6% of global expenditure, and expected
to reach $1,626bn by 2018.
• Clothing&fashionmarket:$224bnin
expenditure on clothing and footwear globally
by Muslims (2012) -- 10.6% of global expenditure,
expected to reach $322bn by 2018.
• Tourismmarket:$137bninexpenditure
on tourism (not including Hajj/Umrah) globally
by Muslims (2012) -- 12.5% of global expenditure,
expected to reach $181bn by 2018.
• Media&recreationmarket:$151bnin
expenditure on recreation and cultural services
globally by Muslims (2012) -- 4.6% of global
expenditure, expected to reach $205bn by 2018.
• Pharmaceuticalmarket:$70bnin
expenditure on pharmaceuticals globally by
Muslims -- 6.6% of global expenditure, expected to
reach $97bn by 2018.
• Cosmetics&personalcaremarket:$26bnin
expenditure, expected to reach $39bn by 2018.
The authors are Global Head of Islamic Capital Markets,
Thomson Reuters, and Managing Director of Dinar Standard
respectively.
Early in 2013 the Ruler of Dubai made a
commitment for the city-state to become the global
hub of the $300bn market in Islamic bonds, part
of the strategy to develop Dubai as central to the
global Islamic economy, integrating other segments
such as halal food and cosmetic production.
The emirate itself raised $1.25bn in January in a mix
of conventional fixed-interest instruments with a
$750m Islamic tranche.
Global sukuk issuance reached $140bn in 2012,
up 64% from $85bn in 2011, according to Zawya.
Issuers from the UAE accounted for $6-7bn of that
total.
With yields on a downward trend, issuers were able
to lock into low (US$-related) rates for the medium
term, although investment banks questioned
whether the market’s price gains of the previous
two years would continue, given that inflation
and interest rates may rise in tandem with global
economic recovery.
Currently the nominal value of sukuk listed on Dubai
exchanges is estimated at $10.6bn, the third largest
in the world.
Over ten years total sukuk issuance had soared
from $5bn in 2003, according to Ernst & Young,
providing an equivalence of financial instrument
with conventional bonds, while structured to meet
Shariah’s requirements.
“Sukuk trade like bonds, clear like bonds, settle
like bonds, and are rated like bonds by the same
ratings agencies”, says Nigel Denison, head of wealth
management and treasury at Bank of London and
Middle East.
They also offer flexibility, with a number of structures
possible, with a lease-back approach commonly used.
If an income-generating asset is present, receivables
can be securitized. Otherwise, other structures can
be utilized, such as profit-sharing. Issuers mainly are
sovereigns, Islamic banks and corporations.
In the first half of 2013, $61.2bn of sukuk issuance
was placed. Yields in the GCC jumped 43% in Q2,
to 4.2%, but subsequently receded to around 3.9%,
according to the HSBC/Nasdaq Dubai Index.
The Islamic Development Bank, based in Saudi
Arabia, issued $1bn of sukuk in June. Al Hilal Bank
of Abu Dhabi in October issued $500m of sukuk,
oversubscribed twelve times.
Non-Muslims can both buy and issue sukuk, and
“European governments have indicated a desire
to issue sukuk to tap the additional pool of Islamic
liquidity”, says Khalid Howladar, senior analyst at
Moody’s.
“Overall, we believe the demand for sukuk worldwide
is $800bn to $1 trillion, says Ashar Nazim, Islamic
The corporate choice between bonds and sukuk
by Rachel Latham and Andrew Shouler
Feature
Page 10
“Sukuk trade like bonds, clear like bonds, settle like bonds, and are rated like
bonds”
Page 11
financial services leader at Ernst &Young. “The supply
is $250bn. So you can imagine, demand is three times
or more what supply is today.”
Still, the fact that supply doesn’t keep up with demand
means buy-and-hold investors predominate, so that
sukuk remain somewhat less liquid than conventional
bonds.
Sukuk yields used to be correspondingly higher than
for conventional bonds, but that differential has either
closed or even overlapped as liquidity has improved.
In the Gulf region Islamic bonds are not only meeting
refinancing requirements, but also funding massive
infrastructure spending. Prominent examples include
the power & water sector (names like Saudi Electricity,
SEC, and Dubai Electricity & Water Authority, DEWA),
and events like the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.
Demand for sukuk in the GCC is likely to continue
growing at double-digit rates in the next two years,
rating Standard & Poor’s says. SEC broke fresh ground
with its 30-year maturity issue this April, “illustrating
that the market is broadening and innovating”.
As for sector suitability, bankers say that sukuk are
ideal for the airline and aviation industry because of
the match between the long-term nature of the assets,
with a regular income stream from passenger traffic,
and the structure and tenor of the securities.
Similarly, airport infrastructure may be implicated
too. Kuala Lumpur International Airport and the
international terminal at Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport
involved large Islamic financing tranches.
It’s also said, though, that sukuk are not necessarily
a better financing option but are simply a different
option in terms of securing an alternative source of
funding. Capital market products generally allow for
deviation from the commercial bank route, which has
been constrained in recent times.
Several airlines, such as Turkish Airlines and Malaysia’s
budget carrier Air Asia, have indicated that they
are exploring the possibilities of financing new
fleet acquisitions and expansion through Shariah-
compliant methods.
In March this year Emirates Airlines and Malaysia
Airlines sought funds to finance fleet acquisition
and expansion. Both companies had issued Islamic
papers previously.
Saudi Gazette reported that an estimated sixty
transactions valued at nearly $10bn have been
completed for various airlines and airline leasing
companies over the last three decades, with “very
familiar and comfortable” documentation involving
Shariah-compliant structures related to purchasing,
maintenance and insurance.
By the time Emirates launched its $1bn amortising
sukuk in March, it had already tapped global debt
markets (in January) for a $750m amortising bond,
which Reuters reported “received a muted response
due to weak market sentiment at the time”. It had
also issued two smaller export credit agency-backed
deals this year.
The March sukuk, maturing in 2023, carries an
“Bankers say sukuk are ideal for the aviation industry
because of the nature of the assets and the structure and
tenor of the securities.”
Page 12
average weighted life of five years and was launched at
300 basis points over five-year mid-swaps, at the tighter
end of the nominated range, and was sold to investors
in MENA, Europe, Asia, and offshore US accounts.
Clearly, it seemed the decision was strategic for
Dubai, not just a corporate financing matter. Emirates
chairman and CEO Sheikh Ahmad Bin Saeed Al
Maktoum told media the aim was “to confirm our
support to the initiative of Dubai becoming the world
capital of Islamic economy.”
Market conditions deteriorated in the spring, however,
with speculation over the US Federal Reserve’s reduction
of its bond-buying programme (QE), which provoked an
alarming reaction in emerging-market debt.
Average yields on global corporate sukuk increased
46 basis points to 4.62% in the two months following
the Fed’s tapering declaration in June (HSBC/Nasdaq
Dubai Corporate US Dollar Sukuk Index). The yield on
Emirates’s $1bn sukuk increased 31 basis points in that
period to 5%.
However, Emirates continues confidently to expand. A
company spokesman revealed this year that the Dubai
carrier will need an average of $5.3bn a year over the
next five years to finance 119 aircraft deliveries. The
company could access the sukuk or non-Shariah-
compliant bond market early next year, he said.
The market volatility that arose in mid-year “is not ideal”,
he admitted, but it “has not stopped us from issuing
bonds in the past.” Still, the availability of funds might
become a headache. “If the banks are having their own
problems or the bond markets collapse -- that will affect
us,” he conceded.
Other options for funding are commercial debt,
operating leases and export credits. There are no known
plans for an IPO.
Cash raised for next year will finance the delivery of 21
aircraft including ten Airbus A380s, nine Boeing 777-300
ER and two Boeing 777 freighters. “We have pretty much
the same strategy for the next financial year as this year.
It’s going to be a diversified structure,” the spokesman
confirmed.
Based at one of the busiest airports in the world (with
over 32m passengers passing through in 2013H1, up
17%), Emirates has witnessed astonishing growth.
At this year’s Dubai airshow, it again rewrote the record
books with an order for 150 Boeing 777X, comprising
35 Boeing 777-8Xs and 115 Boeing 777-9Xs, plus 50
purchase rights; also an additional 50 Airbus A380
aircraft.
Together, these orders, excluding purchase rights, are
worth an estimated US$ 99bn at list prices, truly a vast
sum. “We believe business will come,” said Tim Clark,
President of Emirates.
Snapshot of Emirates airline
The Dubai government-owned airline, launched in
1985, currently flies to 137 destinations in 77 countries.
Reporting its 25th year of consecutive annual profits,
Emirates group announced net profit of $845m for
the year to March 2013, up 34% year on year. Group
revenues grew 17% to $21.2bn. The airline carried a
record 39.4m passengers, up 16% on the previous year.
At the group’s cargo business, contributing 15% of the
airline’s revenues, tonnage rose 16%, while revenues
grew 8%.
Profits have surged in the last two years, with more
routes and more passengers, but the latest results show
the airline to be affected by the fuel and exchange rate
issues that have hit other large global players. For the
half-year period to September 2013 the company only
marginally improved net profit to $475m, despite a 15%
rise in passengers to 21.5m.
Page 13
Financing analysis
A recent teaching note by Emir Hrnjic, Harun Kapetanovic
and David Reeb for the Richard Ivey School of Business at
the University of Western Ontario contained the following
remarks on the $1bn Emirates issue --
In June 2012 Emirates repaid a $550 million sukuk bond
used to finance plane purchases in 2005. In February
and March 2013 it raised $1bn in sukuk at a profit rate of
3.875%, and $750m from 12-year amortizing regular bonds
at a coupon of 4.5%.
Sukuk bonds are essentially equity-based securities
with promised profit rates (in negative profit years,
sukuk bondholders still receive payment based on the
expectation of future profits), which requires special
accounting and tax rules to make them competitive with
conventional bonds.
From this perspective, it seems that Emirates’s sukuk has
higher risk than conventional bonds, and should have
had higher (not lower) yield. [In fact] the sukuk had a
lower yield. This difference seemed at odds with several
conventional finance theories. This lower financing cost
might have been one of the key reasons for issuing sukuk
bonds.
Sukuk bonds seek to replicate conventional bonds and
receive similar accounting and tax treatment in Islamic-
friendly markets. However, the equity-based nature of the
sukuk bond provides substantial difficulty in providing the
same priority as senior conventional bonds. Moreover,
bankruptcy courts could potentially invalidate any stated
rule that gave an equity-based security the same priority as
a conventional bond.
During the crisis in 2009, it seems that Dubai credit was
‘too big to fail’. Government-related entities (GREs) that
were central to the local debt crisis are closely linked to
(owned by) the ruler of Dubai and/or Government of Dubai.
Possible default would have set a negative precedent,
[with] a ripple effect in the investor community. However, it
is not clear that Islamic bonds would be more favoured in
the event of a bailout.
A firm issuing both conventional and Islamic bonds would
be able to achieve better pricing with sukuk by favouring
Islamic financial institutions (IFIs) and their inherent
demand for sukuk. An issuer such as Emirates airline,
with a large issue of U$ 1bn and strong and recognizable
credit profile, would be able to aim to reduce its cost of
finance by using a sukuk structure.
Analysts differ on the best alternative as to the financing
of further aircraft orders. Some have favoured repeating
the sukuk issue, some appeared focused on exploring
other types of sukuk, and others have leant towards
conventional financing arrangements. Big decisions
remained for the treasury department.
[Yet], Emirates is a privately held company with a variety
of financing options available. In addition, it should be
underscored that its treasury function has a strong track
record with external capital markets due to successful
prior issuances.
Its decision should not therefore be confined to which
debt instrument to use or whether to use bilateral bank
financing; rather, it should include the option of raising
equity as well.
A primary decision is the choice between equity and
debt. Capital increases using the equity path would
include going public (IPO), private sale and capital
increase from the same shareholder. Debt-like options
include the choice between conventional bonds, sukuk
bonds, or lease agreements. Arguably, issuing sukuk
bonds provides an additional source of funding that
does not entail providing voting rights to external capital
markets.
In respect to sukuk structures, an asset-intensive industry
such as airlines allows the deployment of a variety of
asset-based structures. The motivation behind issuing
a sukuk as opposed to issuing a conventional bond
[involves] diversity of investor base and funding method.
The lack of credit rating has not impeded the company’s
ability to raise funds. For 2014 Emirates plans to issue
regular bonds and up to $4.5bn of sukuk. Issuing in both
markets would continue (despite the different costs of
capital), owing to different demand curves and investor
interests.
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Saudi Gazette,
Gulf News, Gulf Times, Dow Jones, Emirates press release,
Harun Kapetanovic (Dubai Dept of Economic Development)
GCC
Gulf bourses mostly maintained their form through
November, spurring gains for the year to 25%
on an aggregate basis. Qatar’s index was best-
performing, having been softest in prior months,
driven by real estate, banks, transportation and
industrials. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index also
recovered some vigour, turning its attention from
disappointing Q3 results towards better outcomes
expected for Q4. In a further switch of trends, both
UAE markets were hesitant by comparison, keeping
watch ahead of Dubai’s ultimately successful
Expo 2020 bid. Kuwait, meanwhile, continued
to underperform, by some distance on the year.
Investors were sidelined by the suggestion of
measures to be taken against speculation. Oman
and Bahrain were relatively sideways on the month.
MENA
The persistence of political wrangling provoked
weakness in the Egyptian market, offsetting some
of the relative buoyancy achieved in quieter
conditions in recent months. Disputes among the
50-member panel writing another constitution
for the country led to premier El Beblawi
declaring a charter referendum for the new year.
The government also enacted a toughening
of legislation surrounding public protests,
adding to nervousness and uncertainty.
During December, however, the central bank’s
unexpected cut to interest rates lifted the
mood, in the wake of modest quarterly growth
data in the last quarter. Reflecting that renewed
thrust, key lender Commercial International
Bank jumped over 6% to its highest level since
1997.
Far East
Asian markets were slavish followers of
economic trends in China and the prospects
for tapering of US economic stimulus, but there
were variations related to particular domestic
issues. Thailand’s political troubles stood out,
with an anti-government protest movement
amassing at government offices, determined to
Stock Markets
Page 14
oust prime minister Shinawatra, who eventually
dissolved parliament and called a snap election.
Upbeat trade data out of China helped boost
Vietnam to a six-month high, and Malaysia’s main
index reached an all-time peak upon impressive
export statistics. Still affected by the devastation
of typhoon Haiyan, the Philippines saw stocks
settle at a three-month low. Otherwise regional
accounts were subdued in trading volumes ahead
of the year-end, but also waiting especially for
indications of the Fed’s monetary policy stance in
response to latest jobs numbers.
Rest of the World
Global equity markets were broadly positive
overall, essentially heartened that the US’s QE
programme would continue while leaning
to determined support for the economy and
financial assets. The announcement of Janet
Yellen as new Fed chair underscored the point.
US stocks hit all-time highs, boosted by Q3
GDP data exceeding forecasts and, for instance,
the housing sector illustrating faster activity.
European bourses were helped by an ECB rate
cut, seeking to ward off deflation in the eurozone,
collectively still in some difficulty. Japanese
indices approached 6-year highs in mirror image
of yen competitiveness, with Abenomics still on
trial. Emerging markets, meanwhile, generated
negative returns, in line with doubts over the
potential withdrawal of stimulus in the US. Latin
America proved most exposed in this regard.
Sources: GIC, Global Investment House, Emirates
NBD, Bloomberg, Reuters, broker reports
Page 15
Islamic or Shariah compli-ant indices exclude indus-tries whose lines of busi-
ness incorporate forbidden goods or where debts/
assets ratios exceed 33%. The increasing popular-ity of Islamic finance has
led to the establishment of Shariah compliant stock
indices in many stock markets across the world, even where local Muslim populations are relatively
small, such as in China and Japan.
Volatility is a measure of un-certaincy of market returns. It is calculated as the standard
deviation of the returns in the reported month. The formula for the standard deviation is:
σ=E[(X-μ)2]1/2
Islamic Stock Indices
Conventional Stock Indices
Evolution of Islamic Stock Markets in November 2013 for GCC, Far East, Middle East North Africa (MENA) and Rest of the World markets. Prices represent the closing price of the respective index at 29/11/2013. Percentage Month-to-Month (MTM) Change and percentage Volatility. Source: Datastream
Evolution of Stock Markets in November 2013 for GCC, Far East, Middle East North Africa (MENA) and Rest of the World markets. Price represent the closing price of the respective index at 29/11/2013. Percentage Month-to-Month (MTM) Change and percentage Volatility. Source: Datastream
Page 16
CommoditiesOil
In Brent and related series the price dip seen
in November was more than unwound in the
remainder of the month and into December as
confidence grew in the prospects for the world
economy -- particularly in respect of the US
and China -- and therefore crude demand. Oil
generally was initially subdued by a series of
stockpile numbers that suggested the market
would be well supplied, then by the news that
sanctions on Iran might be eased and its exports
restored. The scale of build-up in US inventories
weighed especially on WTI, but prices snapped
back when it seemed pipeline delivery to the
Gulf Coast might act to drain the excess. Signs
of a stronger American consumer were offset,
though, by concerns for counterpart Fed
tapering.
Natural Gas
While scope exists for price reaction to inventory
movements and to chart indicators, analysts
confirmed that gas would trade very much
in line with weather forecasts, or, precisely, in
inverse relation to predicted temperatures. In
much of November warmer conditions across
much of the US meant that both residential and
commercial demand sagged, as did that from
electric generators. Forecasts of a colder front
during December then boosted prices again,
beyond the $4 mmBtu level. But technical
indicators pointed to overbuying, and heating
requirements were expected to drop later in
the month as milder conditions were predicted
again. The prospect of frigid weather early in
January thereupon prompted another uptick.
Gold
In recent weeks gold could not contain its slide,
except when offsetting easing of the US dollar,
and prices are heading for their first annual
decline for 13 years. The pervading notion that
Page 17
the Fed will soon enough begin tapering its stimulus
programme upon economic recovery gathering
momentum has curbed interest in precious metals.
A budget accord in the US had similarly softening
effect. As it turned out, tapering talk was validated in
mid-December, and gold’s enduring purpose as a safe
haven was thereby undercut. Market participants may
hope only that the experimental monetary strategy will
still tend to prod inflation out of a comfortable zone if
the determined policy stance overreaches.
Copper/Base MetalsIn common with the world economy of which it is
supposed to be a barometer, copper maintained
a moderate tendency in the same period, with the
speculative element flipping from long to short
positions. Equally, similarly to many other markets,
downward influence came from the general expectation
of Fed tapering, while the counterpart factor of the
US economic rebound steadily developing kept some
upward tilt to prices. Stockpiles in Shanghai and
London diminished with an improvement in orders,
while robust manufacturing data out of both China and
the US also lent firmness, as did a strike at a Chilean
smelter.
Sugar/Agriculturals
Whereas agriculturals likewise kept a sideways range,
sugar continued to suffer, experiencing what was
described as a rout. A third straight annual decline
beckoned, and a fourth year of surpluses. Production
surges from Thailand, India, Australia and Brazil have
followed with a lag the incentive of the higher prices of
2011, and bumper crops have arisen this year. A global
glut has resulted, as consumption, though growing,
has not kept the same kind of pace. Brazil’s pledge to
extend its currency intervention plan in favour of the
real fuelled sales of the sweetener in US dollar terms.
Likely conversion of sucrose for ethanol output may
restrict the slump.
Edible Oils
Although palm oil usually eases during this season in
the northern hemisphere (as it tends to solidify), its
Page 18
impetus this year has been sustained, with government
initiatives in Indonesia and Malaysia to promote biofuel
keeping stocks in check. However, if crude oil prices should
themselves ease back, then the demand for the ‘green’
substitute would be trimmed. The weather was supportive
in recent weeks, though, as monsoon floods impeded
both harvesting and transportation. Palm oil prices were
nevertheless restrained by the narrowing discount to the
rival soybean, whose fulsome crops had impact.
Sources: OPEC, Reuters, Bloomberg
GCC
Gulf bonds were caught between international
prompts, as signs of economic recovery in the US
and Europe diverged, while the strength of activity
in China and Japan continued uncertainly. However,
regional trading outperformed that of emerging
markets. The market was fragile among sovereign
CDS, with spreads widening across the space. That
was notable in the case of Dubai, whose credits
benefited from the winning Expo bid but whose
funding requirements in the next few years were
estimated at elevated levels. A defensive mood
spread ahead of year-end, as players took to the
sidelines, conscious also of the pipeline of supply
that could become difficult to digest, although
liquidity remained solid enough.
Egypt / MENA
Central Bank of Egypt’s surprise rate half-point
rate cut barely affected the country’s foreign-
currency debt yields, signalling both an economic
weakness that needs to be corrected to improve
national finances, but also a lack of inflationary
pressure. Donations by Gulf states have otherwise
given the authorities some room for manoeuvre,
allowing sufficient confidence for locals to invest
in government securities, bringing domestic yields
tumbling. S&P’s rating upgrade in mid-November
also helped, and the Egyptian pound found
reasonable stability below 7/$. All eyes became
trained on the public vote on a new constitution
scheduled for January.
Malaysia / Far East
Asian bonds have suffered conspicuously over
the rumours and shifting timeline of the US Fed’s
monetary tapering, as the impact of concerned
speculation compounded the revealed reaction
of regional markets earlier in the year when the
move was initially suggested. Malaysia’s ringgit
experienced nine straight weeks of decline, the
longest for eight years. Some 30% of the country’s
Bonds and CDS markets
sovereign bonds is held by overseas accounts. Asia’s
bond markets have reacted very poorly both to US
benchmark yields and their implications for the dollar.
Malaysia’s quickening inflation rate added to the
pressure.
Global Benchmarks
Beyond the short end, interest rates rose right across
Page 19
Credit Default Swap Markets
Sovereign Bond Markets
Evolution of Bond Markets in November 2013 relative to the previous month. The table reports the price index on which the MTM Change is calculated (month-to-month) and the Yield of sovereign bond maturities typically between 6 months and 25 years. Data as at 29/11/2013.
Evolution of CDS Spreads in November 2013 relative to the previ-ous month. The index reported here represents the average ba-sis points (bp) of a 5-year CDS for protection against sovereign bonds. Data as at 29/11/2013. MTM Change refers to the change relative to the previous month.
the US yield curve in November, responding to
stronger economic data, particularly the payrolls
report. The market believed the improvement
increased the chance of the Fed curtailing its QE
programme. However, incoming chair Janet Yellen
quelled fears at her confirmation hearing. When
the Fed announced in mid-December a tapering
from $85bn of bond purchases to $75bn per month,
prior discounting of the decision mollified the
market reaction. The policy pointer given that no
precipitative rate hike would be seen also sweetened
sentiment. In Europe the policy manipulations of
the ECB, in tending to the needs of the struggling
eurozone, continued to create a mixture of comfort
and doubt in the market, with a background of deep
uncertainty over the plausibility of lasting economic
recovery and the technicalities of any banking union
as proposed and apparently required.
Source: GIC, InvestAD, Capital Economics,
Bloomberg, Financial Times, broker reports
Page 20
Islamic Bonds (Sukuk)
While in the secondary market mainstream bonds and their
Sharia-compliant equivalents both depended on the mixed
economic and policy news from the US especially, on a total
return basis sukuk slightly outperformed the conventional.
HSBC’s Nasdaq-Dubai GCC USD Sukuk/Bond TR Index
(GCCB) finished flat in November, though spreads widened
by 4bps, yielding 4.02%. The USD Sukuk TR Index (SKBI)
ended marginally up, while the GCC Conventional USD
Bond TR Index (GCBI) were marginally down.
The primary market was moderately active, and issues were
well bid.
Saudi real estate company Dar Al Arkan appeared with a
three-year $300m (SAR1.1bn) sukuk that was issued at a
profit rate of 5.75%, the second tranche under its sukuk
programme.
Qatari telecoms firm Ooredoo launched a $1.25bn, five-year
sukuk, the firm’s maiden Islamic bond. The benchmark-
sized issue has a profit rate of 3.039%. The proceeds were
for general corporate purposes, including re-financing
existing indebtedness.
Saudi-based water and power project developer ACWA
Power raised a 1.77bn riyal ($471.9m) Islamic loan (5-year
revolving credit facility) from four local banks to help
finance investments including acquisitions and act as a
bridge to a sukuk issue next year. No pricing was given but
the statement compared it favourably with that for regional
peers and with recent issuances by Saudi and regional
government-related entities. ACWA is expanding rapidly
across the MENA, hoping to at least double its power
generation capacity and water production capabilities.
Aldar Properties, Abu Dhabi’s property development,
investment and management company announced
its completion of a $750m capital-raising via a 5-year
sukuk. The transaction, the company’s first foray into the
capital markets since the merger with Sorouh, was priced
competitively at a spread of 290bps over US$ mid-swaps
for a fixed profit rate of 4.348%. It was integral to the firm’s
debt strategy, focused on reducing the cost of borrowing,
extending its maturity profile and lowering leverage levels.
Saudi Hollandi Bank privately placed a 2.5bn riyal ($666.6m)
tier-2 sukuk to support the bank’s capital base. It has a
Sukuk is the Arabic name for financial certificates, but commonly refers to the Islamic equivalent of bonds. Since fixed income, interest bearing bonds are not permissible in Islam, Sukuk securities
are structured to comply with the Islamic law and its investment principles, which
prohibits the charging, or paying of interest. Financial assets that comply with
the Islamic law can be classified in ac-cordance with their tradability and non-
tradability in the secondary markets.
Source: HSBC Nasdaq Dubai
tenor of ten years, and carries a half-yearly profit of
6-month Saudi Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) plus
1.55%.
Saudi British Bank (SABB), an affiliate of HSBC Holdings,
completed a 1.5bn riyal ($400m) capital-boosting
sukuk issue. With a lifespan of seven years, it contained
a clause allowing redemption at five years, and was
priced at 1.4% over 6-mth Saibor.
Sources: GIC, Invest AD, Bloomberg, Reuters, broker
reports
Page 21
Perspective
By contrast with financial markets which have been
shaped in 2013 very significantly by US monetary
impetus, real economies and sectors depend over
time on less artificial, more structural drivers. Islamic
finance & economy has been quite well focused this
year as one such segment of activity worth watching
seriously.
Whilst the positive attributes of the industry have
been much trumpeted, however, there has equally
been an acknowledgement, at well-attended forums
in key centres such as London and Dubai, that
negative strains persist that may still dampen its
prospects. Anecdotally, this fact became particularly
apparent by engaging with the content and
delegated representation at Dubai’s Global Islamic
Economy Summit in November. A handbook for
the event gave a rosier view than certain opinions
expressed in the lobbies.
In their literature in support of the forum, Thomson
Reuters and Dinar Standard undoubtedly gave
an impressive, comprehensive account of the
opportunities for the Islamic dimension across a
range of economic sectors, indicating its genuinely
massive potential. Authors Sayd Farook and Rafi-
uddin Shikoh, of the two organizations respectively,
listed eight factors favourably motivating the Islamic
market in the years ahead.
Four of those were related to trade and growth,
namely: the demography of the world Muslim
population; consumption trends directed by Shariah-
compliant values; the economic growth profile
of the relevant countries; and the intra-regional
trade prospects of the OIC states. Four ancillary
factors were: the emerging presence of globalized
companies in the Islamic space; the interest of
investors in the growth markets of developing
nations; growing sentiment since the global
financial crisis in favour of socially-conscious business;
and the impact of communication technology in aiding
connectedness.
These are ideas with a certain credibility, whose collective
merits should bring weight to the sector in the course
of time. Yet, there is still the matter of delivery, and the
presence of constraints. Buttonholed by Laurent Marliere,
CEO of Islamic legal consultancy IsFin, I was reminded
that particular themes have become ingrained as snags
impeding development.
Thus, while Islamic finance “prides itself on ethical
governance”, it remains troubled by a “lack of maturity,
and conflicts of interest”, he said. Most obviously,
its standards, and the control and the certification
of Shariah-compliant products, are not evolved
internationally. That expert scholars are found only
in very limited numbers “leads to an unhealthy
concentration of expertise”, he added.
On the aspect of reputation, Marliere was very critical
about professional migrants from conventional banking
whose independence and motivations are doubtful. That
brickbat was tempered, though, by the observation that
Islamic finance too can harbour unhelpful inconsistencies,
such as when “the advisor happens to be the certificatory
body as well”, an element that may feature in efforts to
organize the industry. Other frailties of the sector he
mentioned are very familiar, like the inadequacies in risk
management or limitations of existing marketing.
So the conjuring that Islamic finance & economy has
to perform is – unsurprisingly, and often the way -- to
convert potential into delivery. Plans may well come to
fruition, but to do so will require not only the willpower
of those in positions of authority who may help facilitate
market appetite, but the imagination to find ways of
overcoming bumps in the road.
Islamic finance & economy’s motorway has potholes to be fixed
by Andrew Shouler
Page 22
Call for PaPers4th Islamic Banking and Finance Conference (IBF 2014)
23rd to 24th June 2014Venue: Lancaster University Management School
Keynote Speaker
Thorsten BeckProfessor of Banking and Finance, Cass Business School
The constraints applied by Islamic banks rendered them more resilient in the recent financial crisis compared to their con-ventional counterparts. This has attracted the attention of market participants and researchers to their liquidity buffers, leverage ratios, managerial efficiency and bespoke financial products. Islamic banking products are now offered in more than twenty countries and their expanding suite includes bonds, equity indices and insurance. The sector is estimated to exceed $1trillion in value, while growing at about 15% per annum. Among many issues still subject to debate is the purity of Islamic finance in practice, given the need to compete and to operate with customers whose expectations have been formed by conventional banking practices.EIBF centre at Aston Business School in collaboration with GOLCER Lancaster University Management School is organis-ing a conference on Islamic Banking and Finance. The conference aims to provide a forum for an exchange of views on recent developments and to identify key issues/challenges underlying the paradigm of Islamic Banking and Finance in the 21st century.
Original contributions are invited on any of the listed topics:
• Financial risk and stability • Risk Management, Accountability and auditing• Transparency, governance and corporate social responsibility • Competition• Earnings management and impression management • Microfinance and SMEs• Performance, efficiency and convergence • Behavioural finance• Mutual funds
Special IssueJournal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation (JEBO)
Ana Timberlake Best paper Research Award: £500
Co-editors for the JEBO Special IssueOmneya Abdelsalam, Aston UniversityMohammed El-Komi, American University of CairoAna-Maria Fuertes, Cass Business SchoolStergios Leventis, International Hellenic UniversityGerald Steele, Lancaster University
Scientific committeeOmneya Abdelsalam (Aston University), Nathan Berg (University of Otago), Rachel Croson (University of Texas at Dallas), Mahmoud El-Gamal (Rice University), Mohamed El-Komi, (American University Cairo), Meryem Fethi (Leicester University), Ana-Maria Fuertes (Cass Business School), Mohamed Shahid Ibrahim (Bangor University), Marwan Izzeldin (Lancaster University), Jill Johnes (Lancaster University), Stergios Leventis (In-ternational Hellenic University), Kent Mathews (Cardiff Business School), Khelifa Mazouz (Bradford Business School), Philip Molyneux (University of Bangor), Andrew Mullineux (University of Bournemouth), Steven Ongena (University of Zurich), Vasileios Pappas (Lancaster University), Mo-hamed Shaban (Leicester University), Mustapha Sheikh (Leeds University), Gerald Steele (Lancaster University), Emili Tortosa-Ausina (Jaume I University), Mike Tsionas (Lancaster University)
Conference Organisers: Dr Omneya Abdelsalam (Aston University), Dr Marwan Izzeldin (Lancaster University)
Important DatesConference Abstract Submission
Conference Full Paper Submission
Submission for JEBO Special Issue
Special Issue Publication
31st March 2014 27th April 2014 1st October 2014 October 2015
Statistics • Econometrics • ForecastingT IMB ERL A K E
For paper submissions please email Marwa Elnahass: [email protected]
Page 23
Global Forum on Islamic Finance 2014 ConferenceDevelopments and The Way Forward
March 10-12, 2014Lahore, Pakistan
Organised byDepartment of Management Sciences
COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT)http://gfif.citilahore.edu.pk/
Research Team
Gerry [email protected]
Vasileios [email protected]
Marwa El [email protected]
Marwan IzzeldinDirector
DISCLAIMER
This report was prepared by Gulf One Lancaster Centre for Economic Research (GOLCER) and is of a general nature and is not intended to provide specific advice on any matter, nor is it intended to be comprehensive or to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. This material is based on current public information that we consider reliable at the time of publication, but it does not provide tailored investment advice or recommendations. It has been prepared without regard to the financial circumstances and objectives of persons and/or organisations who receive it. The GOLCER and/or its members shall not be liable for any losses or damages incurred or suffered in connection with this report including, without limitation, any direct, indirect, incidental, special, or consequential damages. The views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the views of Gulf One or Lancaster University. Redistribution, reprinting or sale of this report without the prior consent of GOLCER is strictly forbidden.
Andrew ShoulerEditor