ISAB Snake River ISAB Snake River 2010 Spill-Transport Review2010 Spill-Transport Review

ISAB 2010-2 – Presentation to Council April 14, 2010

AssignmentAssignment

On February 25, 2010, NOAA Fisheries requested the ISAB review their proposal to defer spill and move to max transport for May 2010.

The NOAA review request included reference to reports by NWFSC, FPC, USACE, and ISAB.

In March 2010 ODFW raised some questions and provided additional information.

Independent Scientific Advisory Boardfor the Northwest Power and Conservation Council,

Columbia River Basin Indian Tribes, and National Marine Fisheries Service

851 SW 6th Avenue, Suite 1100Portland, Oregon 97204

J. Richard Alldredge, Ph.D., Professor of Statistics at Washington State University.

James Congleton, Ph.D., Emeritus Fisheries Professor, University of Idaho

Nancy Huntly, Ph.D., Professor of Wildlife Biology at Idaho State University.

Roland Lamberson, Ph.D., Professor of Mathematics and Director of Environmental Systems Graduate Program at Humboldt State University.

Colin Levings, Ph.D., Scientist Emeritus and Sessional Researcher at Centre for Aquaculture and Environmental Research, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada.

Robert J. Naiman, Ph.D., Professor of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences at U of Washington

William Pearcy, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus of Oceanography at Oregon State University.

Bruce Rieman, PhD, Research Scientist Emeritus, U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station

Greg Ruggerone, Ph.D., Fisheries Scientist for Natural Resources Consultants, Affiliated Research Scientist Alaska Salmon Program at the School of Fisheries, U of Washington

Dennis Scarnecchia, Ph. D., Professor of Fish and Wildlife Resources at University of Idaho.

Peter Smouse, Ph.D., Professor of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources at Rutgers University.

Chris Wood, Ph.D., Head of Conservation Biology Section at Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada.

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments

ISAB colleaguesCouncil staffNOAAFPCODFWUSFWSOther contributors

Scope of ISAB ReviewScope of ISAB Review

Focus on new data, analyses and conclusions within the context of the previous ISAB spill-transport report (ISAB 2008-5).

Does not make policy recommendations; rather attempts to present current scientific understanding in a form that can be used by policy makers.

Synopsis—NOAA, ODFW, FPC, and USFWS

NOAA: transport provides higher SARs for s/s Chinook and steelhead; T:M ratios >1 -- data from 1998-2008.

ODFW: increased spill associated with increased in-river survival for s/s Chinook and steelhead between LGR and MCN.

Synopsis—NOAA, ODFW, FPC, and USFWS (cont’d)

FPC: potential effects on other species, effects of transport on straying, comparison of spill versus transport in 2005 and 2007.

USFWS: additional years would improve understanding of spill effects under low-flow conditions and potential costs of no spill to lamprey populations.

ISAB Conclusion 1: ISAB Conclusion 1: Multi-species PerspectiveMulti-species Perspective

Combinations of transport and in-river migration with spill spreads the risk across species, stocks, and the ecosystem

Offers an approach that can shed light on uncertainties in the longer-term dataset.

ISAB Conclusion 2:ISAB Conclusion 2: Operational Changes – Lessons LearnedOperational Changes – Lessons Learned

A mixed strategy in low-flow conditions provides an important opportunity to learn from the concurrent spill and transport mix of recent years.

ISAB Conclusion 3:ISAB Conclusion 3:Addressing Uncertainties - LampreyAddressing Uncertainties - Lamprey

A gap in knowledge remains on the effects of spill-transport operations on downstream juvenile Pacific lamprey migration.

A means of tracking migrating juvenile lamprey is needed.

ISAB Conclusion 4: ISAB Conclusion 4: Addressing Uncertainties - SockeyeAddressing Uncertainties - Sockeye

Continuing new studies to examine the relative benefits of spill and transport for sockeye could reduce uncertainties about sockeye juvenile migration.

ISAB Conclusion 5: ISAB Conclusion 5: Addressing Uncertainties – StrayingAddressing Uncertainties – Straying

Out-of-basin straying is a concern with reports that transported steelhead have higher straying rates and lower homing rates than fish migrating in-river.

ISAB Conclusion 6:ISAB Conclusion 6:Spill as the Baseline – Ecological and Spill as the Baseline – Ecological and

Evolutionary ConsiderationsEvolutionary Considerations

The premise that spill more closely mimics natural evolutionary and ecological processes than maximum transportation argues for a mixed strategy to balance risks and conserve diversity and future potential.

Overall Overall

From a scientific standpoint, a mixed strategy for spill and transport is best supported by the available science. Ecological and evolutionary considerations provide an important framework in support of this strategy.

Thank you!Thank you!