is your organization mobilized for the shale gas decade? · ethylene economics source: nymex...
TRANSCRIPT
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Is your organization mobilized for the Shale Gas Decade?
January 22, 2014
Tom Gellrich
TopLine Analytics
© 2012 TopLine Analytics. All rights reserved.
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Agenda
• Dramatic North American Advantage
• Chemical Industry Drives Next Wave
• Four Disruptive Impacts
• Strategic Questions
• Conclusions
• Questions and Answers
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Shale Revolution?
“U.S. energy landscape is changing on the back of cheap natural gas from shale deposits, which is turning producers away from “offshoring” energy-intensive industries. The discovery of shale gas is perhaps the greatest development in the modern era. Shale gas is a huge – and potentially long-term – competitive advantage for U.S.-based companies”
Andrew LiverisCEO Dow Chemical Company
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1973 Energy Shock
Source EAI
3.2x Increase
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1979 Energy Shock
Source EIA
2.0x Increase
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2008 – 2012 Shale Shock
3.8x Decrease
Source EIA Natural Gas
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NA Shale gas among the largest gas fields
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Marcellus Natural Gas production exceeded Saudi Arabia in late 2013
Source EIA
Unconceivable Production
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North American Advantage
Source: World bank Pink Sheet
2008 2012
Average natural gas prices $/MBtu
$2.74$11.86
$15.59$2.98
$10.32
$11.40
$14.38$1.25
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Chemical Industry Drives the Next Wave
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Chemical Feedstock
Methane
Ethane
Propane
Fuel
Typical Shale gas
Source: Typical Shale Gas: Western Marcellus Shale Gas: Chesapeake July 2011 Investor Presentation
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Ethylene Economics
Source: NYMEX 11/13/2013
5.3x Delta
Ethylene Cost US China
Natural Gas costs $/MMBTU 3.75
Crude Oil costs $/BBL 109
Equivalent $/ton 184 1051
Ratio for one ton ethylene 1.29 2.98
Ethane Feedstock costs $/ton 238 3132
Catalyst + Other $/ton 2 2
By Product Credits $/ton 179 1631
Utilities $/ton 136 256
Direct Costs $/ton 167 172
Total ethylene Cost $/ton 364 1931
Typical ethylene margin 2.50%
Transfer price for ethylene $/ton 373 1980
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Polyethylene Economics
Source: NYMEX 11/13/2013
3.8x Delta
Polyethylene Cost US China
Natural Gas costs $/MBTU 3.75
Crude Oil costs $/BBL 109
Ethylene cost $/ton 373 1980
Ratio for one ton of HDPE 1.025 1.025
Ethylene cost $/ton 383 2029
Utilities $/ton 15 36
Direct Cost $/ton 51 17
Other Costs $/ton 132 132
Total Costs $/ton 580 2214
Typical polyethylene margin 3.00%
Potential HDPE selling price $/ton 598 2281
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Polyethylene Processor Economics
2.9x Delta
Polyethylene Part US China
Polyethylene HDPE $/ton 598 2281
Part weight grams 100 100
Parts units 20000 20000
Polyethylene HDPE $ 598 2281
Utilities units 44 109
Labor $/Hour 31.79 1.38
Labor $ 95 4
Other Costs $ 102 75
Non Polyethylene HDPE Costs $ 241 185
Typical part processor margin 14.00%
Potential Part HDPE selling price $/ton 864 2540
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Dramatic Shift In 7 Years
Source: American Chemistry Council
Ethylene
2005
Middle East N America China W Europe NW Asia
Old Normal:Middle East half the cost of the rest of the world
2012
New Normal:Middle East and NA at parity, rest of the world at 4x cost structure
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Global Chemical Shift
• “The feedstock cost for new crackers in [Saudi Arabia] will be around $6/MBtu as there’s not enough ethane availability … this cost will be much higher than the US gas price, which is currently at $3.50-4.00/MBtu” – Jamal Malaikah, president and COO, National Petrochemical Industrial Co (NATPET), Apr 2013
• “The shale gas revolution initiated in the US… is now reshaping not only the energy industry, but global economy and geopolitics as well.” This could cause “a great deal of discomfort” to Asia’s petrochemical sector.– Yoshimitsu Kobayashi, chairman of the Japanese Petrochemical Industry Association at APIC, May 2013
• “The shale gas revolution in the US has turned the global petrochemical industry inside out…Basic petrochemicals can now be made in the United States for about half the cost as in Europe”– Tom Crotty, Ineos group director, ChemWeek Interview October 2013
• “The supply of low-priced products that are based on coal and shale gas will become a threat to the existing petrochemical industry and will bring a significant change in its structure.”– Han-Hong Ban, chairman of the Korea Petrochemical Industry at APIC, May 2013
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Chemical Industry RespondsNA Investments 2012 to 2020
• $70 billion in capital investment– 97 projects
– 60 million metric tons of chemicals
– 40% increase in ethylene capacity
• Jobs: – 485,000 direct
– 700,00 indirect
• Taxes (federal, state, local)– $20 billion during investment phase
– $14 billion on-going
• Just the startSource: American Chemistry Council
Chemical Industry Output (volume)
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100 to 500% disadvantaged
Unknown – new technology
30 to 80% advantaged
Source: IHS basic chart, TopLine Analytics predictions
Chemical Industry value chain will be selectively disrupted
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Four Disruptive Impacts
Shale Gas economics drive Opportunity and Risk:
• NA On-Shoring
• Full Substitution
• Partial Substitution
• Shale Gas versus Crude Oil
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Changes Drive Core Strategies
Manufacturing Products Customers Supply Chain
How do I rapidly shift my manufacturing to realize NA cost base?
What do I do with my cost disadvantaged Northwest Asia and Western Europe manufacturing sites?
How do I shift my product innovation focus to?:
• Natural gas advantaged chemicals?
• Avoid cost disadvantaged feedstock?
How do I keep my downstream customers who will shift their manufacturing to NA?
How do I gain share from competitors with manufacturing outside of NA?
How do ensure that my suppliers are aggressive and pass the advantage on to me?
Do I shift make versus buy?
How do change my global transport and distribution system?
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Strategic Issues Require Strategic Initiatives
Manufacturing Products Customers Supply Chain
Competitor analysis and strategiesMergers, Acquisitions, Divestitures, Spin-offs
Alliances, Joint VenturesProduct innovation IP
Corporate re-alignment to focus and ensure changeSupplier, Customer, Distributor relationships
Scenario analysis
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Leaders are “all in”
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Shale Gas Conclusions
• NA Business Revolution.
• Chemical Industry at the core, fuel and feedstock.
• New normal, unconventional thinking is required.
• Leaders lead, is your organization mobilized?
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We assist companies in addressing the challenges and opportunities to compete in the changing landscape brought on by the shale gas revolution
Tom Gellrich www.TopLineAnalytics.com 267-205-1263
TopLine Analytics
Questions?