is there a life after holt and laury (2002)?

12
Is There a Life After Holt and Laury (2002)? Ganna Pogrebna [email protected] www.gannapogrebna.com March 11, 2010 GvP

Upload: lovie

Post on 22-Feb-2016

39 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

Is There a Life After Holt and Laury (2002)?. Ganna Pogrebna [email protected] www.gannapogrebna.com March 11, 2010. G v P. Holt and Laury (2002) Procedure. G v P. Popularity of Holt and Laury (2002). Google Scholar: Holt and Laury (2002): 6,350 citations - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

Is There a Life After Holt and Laury (2002)?

Ganna [email protected]

March 11, 2010

GvP

Page 2: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

Holt and Laury (2002) ProcedureRelatively “Safe” Option Relatively “Risky” Option

1/10 of 2.00 LCU, 9/10 of 1.60 LCU 1/10 of 3.85 LCU, 9/10 of 0.10 LCU2/10 of 2.00 LCU, 8/10 of 1.60 LCU 2/10 of 3.85 LCU, 8/10 of 0.10 LCU3/10 of 2.00 LCU, 7/10 of 1.60 LCU 3/10 of 3.85 LCU, 7/10 of 0.10 LCU4/10 of 2.00 LCU, 6/10 of 1.60 LCU 4/10 of 3.85 LCU, 6/10 of 0.10 LCU5/10 of 2.00 LCU, 5/10 of 1.60 LCU 5/10 of 3.85 LCU, 5/10 of 0.10 LCU6/10 of 2.00 LCU, 4/10 of 1.60 LCU 6/10 of 3.85 LCU, 4/10 of 0.10 LCU7/10 of 2.00 LCU, 3/10 of 1.60 LCU 7/10 of 3.85 LCU, 3/10 of 0.10 LCU8/10 of 2.00 LCU, 2/10 of 1.60 LCU 8/10 of 3.85 LCU, 2/10 of 0.10 LCU9/10 of 2.00 LCU, 1/10 of 1.60 LCU 9/10 of 3.85 LCU, 1/10 of 0.10 LCU

10/10 of 2.00 LCU, 0/10 of 1.60 LCU 10/10 of 3.85 LCU, 0/10 of 0.10 LCU

GvP

Page 3: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

Popularity of Holt and Laury (2002) Google Scholar:

Holt and Laury (2002): 6,350 citations Eckel and Grossman (2002): 411 citations DoSpeRT Scale by Weber et al. (2002): 54 citations

JSTOR: Holt and Laury (2002): 65 citations Eckel and Grossman (2002): 29 citations DoSpeRT Scale by Weber et al. (2002): 6 citations

GvP

Page 4: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

Virtues and Vices Virtues:

please the referees cheap and easy to implement “relative” flavor

Vices: not much heterogeneity in the data

(majority of participants “slightly risk averse”/ “risk averse”) inconsistent participants cannot be classified may produce results that are not robust assumes CRRA utility function

GvP

Page 5: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

One Empirical Observation

Rank Description0-1 highly risk seeking2 very risk seeking 3 risk seeking4 risk neutral5 slightly risk averse6 risk averse7 very risk averse8 highly risk averse

9-10 extremely risk averse

Holt and Laury Measure (HL) Self-Reported Measure (SR)Rank Description

1 very risk loving2 risk loving3 slightly risk loving4 neutral5 slightly risk averse6 risk averse7 very risk averse

GvP

Page 6: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

One Empirical Observation (continued) Innsbruck, Austria (2006-2007) 161 participants

SRRisk

seekingRisk

neutralRisk

averse

HLRisk seeking 6 2 2 10Risk neutral 24 5 4 33Risk averse 62 39 17 118

92 46 23

p=0.000p=0.041

GvP

Page 7: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

Controlling for Gender Innsbruck, Austria (2006-2007) 161 participants

SRRisk seeking Risk neutral Risk averse

HLRisk seeking 6 1 2 9Risk neutral 16 3 4 23Risk averse 40 18 8 66

62 22 14

SRRisk seeking Risk neutral Risk averse

HLRisk seeking 0 1 0 1Risk neutral 8 2 0 10Risk averse 22 21 9 52

30 24 9

MEN

WO

MEN

Page 8: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

One Empirical Observation (continued) Berlin, Germany (2008) 184 participants

SRRisk

seekingRisk

neutralRisk

averse

HLRisk seeking 13 2 1 16Risk neutral 19 11 7 37Risk averse 61 44 26 131

93 57 34

p=0.000p=0.470

GvP

Page 9: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

Controlling for Gender Berlin, Germany (2008) 184 participants

SRRisk seeking Risk neutral Risk averse

HLRisk seeking 8 1 1 10Risk neutral 10 5 4 19Risk averse 35 21 14 70

53 27 19

SRRisk seeking Risk neutral Risk averse

HLRisk seeking 5 1 0 6Risk neutral 9 6 3 18Risk averse 26 23 12 61

40 30 15

MEN

WO

MEN

Page 10: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

One Empirical Observation (continued) New York, USA (2007-2009) 562 participants

SRRisk

seekingRisk

neutralRisk

averse

HLRisk seeking 45 5 4 54Risk neutral 96 30 15 141Risk averse 297 47 23 367

438 82 42

p=0.000p=0.000

GvP

Page 11: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

Controlling for Gender New York, USA (2007-2009) 562 participants

SRRisk seeking Risk neutral Risk averse

HLRisk seeking 36 1 3 40Risk neutral 71 5 4 80Risk averse 214 9 5 228

321 15 12

SRRisk seeking Risk neutral Risk averse

HLRisk seeking 9 4 1 14Risk neutral 25 25 11 61Risk averse 83 38 18 139

117 67 30

MEN

WO

MEN

Page 12: Is There a Life After  Holt and  Laury  (2002)?

Possible Explanations and Questions Incentives “Risk” overconfidence People do not have CRRA utility function

Which measure has an impact on behavior: HL or SR?

GvP

Which measure provides a “correct” representation of individual risk attitude?