Marilyn A. Brown

Brook Byers Professor

of Sustainable

Systems,

Georgia Institute of

Technology

Is the Car of the Future Electric?

Research Workshop on the Psychological and Policy Dimensions to Transport

Copenhagen, Denmark

February 19, 2016

Sociotechnical Systems,

Not Isolated Technology

Source: Sovacool, Brown, and Valentine. 2016.

Fact and Fiction in Global Energy Policy (Johns Hopkins Press).

Energy systems are far more than technological packages:

they are sociotechnical systems.

With EV charging and vehicle-to-grid support, the transportation and

electricity “systems” are converging.

Viewed as a sociotechnical system, a car

includes:

Roads & traffic signals Emissions testing

Oil companies & refineries Registration offices

Fuel stations Insurance companies

Car & parts manufacturers Research centers

Dealerships &

maintenance

Police & legal networks

Why is there so much inertia (“lock-in”)?

“the current low functionality and high cost of alternatives, and low

gasoline taxes are endogenous consequences of the dominance of the

internal combustion engine and the petroleum industry, transport

networks, settlement patterns, technologies, and institutions with which it

has coevolved.”

(MIT Management Professors: Struben, J., &, J. D. Sterman, 2008).

Vested interests make change difficult.

Dialecticism, Not Monologue

EVs offer pollution and carbon benefits

EVs can reduce or eliminate tailpipe pollution and curtail greenhouse gas

emissions, but the extent of the gains depends on the type of EV and the

carbon intensity of the electricity used to recharge the batteries.

EVs shift the generation of air pollution away from urban areas and

toward rural communities, which host fossil fuel-fired powered power

plants that recharge EV batteries.

EV penetration can enhance energy

security

Of the top ten net oil exporters, only two can be viewed as politically

stable suppliers - Norway (ranked number three as a net oil exporter) and

Mexico (ranked number ten).

Exports from these two nations pale in significance to exports from

nations such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.

The supply of oil can be interrupted during times of political upheaval.

Terrorism is linked to revenues from oil: the wealth of Osama Bin Laden’s

family came from government construction contracts that were financed

by oil money. ISIS is fueled by oil revenues.

EVs can save money

Consumers can profit from the use of EVs because electricity is cheaper

than gasoline for equivalent distances traveled.

Most travel times and distances are relatively short, which suggests that

for many commuters the current technology should suffice. Given that

about 60 percent of vehicles travel less than 30 miles per day, EV

technology is not far from being able to effectively service the travel

needs of most motorists

At 2014 gasoline prices, when compared to an ICE that gets 35 miles per

gallon, a $21,000 investment in a Nissan Leaf will yield gas savings of

almost $750 per year based on 12,000 miles driven per annum

EVs can improve electricity reliability

If EVs draw power from the grid at off-peak times, vehicle recharging

could take place today without any substantial expansion of electricity

generation capacity

Many electricity generators and electricity grids operate in a sub-optimal

fashion because there is a great deal of slack capacity in the system to

deal with demand peaks and troughs.

Replacing a relatively small 100 MW peaking gas-turbine unit would

require about 30,000 BEVs, each supplying 6.6 kW (assuming an

availability of 50%).

EV technology is advancing rapidly

In 2007, even the most advanced BEVs had limited charge ranges of

about 100-160 km, long recharge times of 4 or more hours, and high

battery costs leading to noncompetitive vehicle retail prices.

A mere 7 years later, the 2014 Tesla Model S comes equipped with a

battery supercharger that can provide 170 miles of range in as little as 30-

minutes.

The future may involve wireless inductive charging systems replacing the

need to “plug in.”

The other side: EVs are no better than

conventional cars

EVs depend upon an assumption that transportation should be private,

rather than public, and motorized, rather than human-powered. Yet,

private, motorized transport gives rise to a host of problems.

It leads to increased congestion, a greater risk of accidents, and elevated

demands on scarce natural resources.

Also, those that rely on private transport walk less: they have higher rates

of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and obesity than those who walk or

take public transport

Cost and range anxiety will constrain

EV Growth

A key criticism of current EVs is that they are expensive and range

limited: the cost and storage capacity of lithium-ion batteries has limited

the range of travel per charge

The IEA found that buyers expect vehicle efficiency improvements to pay

for themselves in the first three years or less. With gasoline at $3.50 per

gallon, it would take 12 years for the operational savings attributed to the

Focus EV to offset the cheaper retail price of the ICE Focus.

The 2014 Nissan Leaf has a range of only 84 miles before requiring a

recharge.

Opponents of EVs argue that this state of anxiety is amplified by EVs

because charging time is far more onerous than stopping in to a local gas

station.

EVs engender sizable environmental

externalities

EVs give rise to a host of environmental ills. Most notable are greenhouse

gas emissions from electricity use, toxic pollution from battery

manufacturing and disposal, and elevated water consumption.

The transition of LDVs from internal combustion engines to electric power

is likely to increase consumption of electricity, and thus exacerbate water

scarcity in some regions.

This is because fossil fuel and nuclear power plants – which dominate the

electricity generation sector – require large amounts of water for the

production of steam and for cooling processes.

Liquid fuels lack substitutes

EVs, because they run on electricity, are constrained by the reach of

electricity networks. The added water intensity associated with EVs

makes it difficult to electrify transport in regions where water is scarce –

e.g., Africa.

Buses, freight trucks, long distance trains, and airplanes will most likely

continue to operate on jet fuel, biofuel, diesel, and gasoline – at least over

the next few decades.

Expected Transportation Fuel Mixes and Modes in a Low-Carbon Nordic Region, 2050

EVs still risk injury, congestion, and

physical inactivity

The paradigm of private vehicle ownership, not the technology of private

vehicles, needs to be changed. EVs depend upon an assumption that

transportation should be private, rather than public, and motorized, rather

than human-powered.

Traffic congestion caused urban Americans to waste 5.5 billion hours

(equivalent to the time US businesses and citizens spend each year filing

their taxes).

Private motorized vehicles of any sort contribute to less physical activity.

Synthesis

• In the end, the pace and scale of EV diffusion

depends on further technological

breakthroughs in batteries, charging

equipment, support infrastructure, consumer

attitudes, societal conceptions of mobility, and

policy support.

• EVs might represent the transport platform of

the future, but much development is still

needed for them to become dominant.

• This gives ICE stakeholders time to wage a

competitive market defense that might confine

EVs to specialized market niches for some

time to come. Thus, the outcome is uncertain.

Extra Slides

Transportation

Rail, 2.2%

Air, 9.0%Marine, 5.0%

Heavy Duty

Vehicle, 21.0%

Light Duty

Vehicle, 64.0%

Petroleum Consumption by End-Use

Sector

Electric Utilities,

2.6%

Industrial, 24.5%

Commercial,

1.8%

Residential,

4.3%

Transportation,

66.8%

The transportation sector

accounts for 67% of the oil

use in the U.S. and is the

fastest growing petroleum

consuming sector.

Source: TEDB No. 26

Introduction

Attributes of Electric Vehicles

Source: Sovacool, Brown, and Valentine. 2016.

Fact and Fiction in Global Energy Policy (Johns Hopkins Press).

Type of Propulsion Energy

and Emissions

Technology

Readiness

Infrastructure

Requirements

Hybrid

electric

vehicle

(HEV)

Propulsion energy from

both consumable fuels and a

battery.

The battery is recharged by

regenerative breaking and

through the ICE.

Numerous car models

exist in the market

today.

HEVs are compatible with

existing refueling

infrastructure.

Plug-in

hybrid

electric

vehicle

(PHEV)

An HEV with a means of

recharging its battery from

an external power source.

Pollution benefits depend

on the driving cycles and

the energy resources used to

generate electricity.

A number of models

exist in the market;

however, recharging

equipment needs to

be cheaper.

PHEVs are compatible with

existing grids in most

industrialized countries.

Battery

electric

vehicle

(BEV)

Propulsion energy drawn

entirely from a battery.

There are no tailpipe

emissions, but total

pollution benefits depend on

the energy resources used to

generate electricity.

Battery improvements

are needed to extend

driving ranges and

shorten recharging

times; in addition,

battery costs must be

cut.

Substantial market

penetration could exacerbate

peak demand, requiring new

power plant or solar PV

investments, especially if

smart grid technologies and

pricing policies are not able

to concentrate recharging

into off-peak periods.

The EV Market is Booming

IEA, 2013. Global EV Outlook

World PHEV Sales by Country

World BEV Sales by Country

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Walking Bicycle Ebike Urbanlight rail

EV Highspeedtrain

USSchool

Bus

Dieselintercity

bus

Airplane Car(singleperson)

Ferryboat

Efficiency (BTUs/passenger mile) Emissions (grams CO2e/passenger km)

Delft, in the Netherlands, a “living street” lacks traffic lights, stop signs,

lane dividers or even sidewalks because motorized vehicles are either

prohibited or access is limited to public transport. Streets of this type

encourage human interaction and exercise

Although most major automobile manufacturers have released EVs, they

also market an array of increasingly fuel efficient models propelled by

blended fuels or hybrid technology.

Technologies That Improve Conventional Motor Vehicle Efficiency

(each offering 5-12% efficiency improvement)

Technology Description

· Variable valve

timing and lift

Improves engine efficiency by optimizing the flow of fuel and air

into the engine

· Cylinder

deactivation

Saves fuel by deactivating cylinders when they are not utilized

· Turbochargers and

superchargers

Allows manufacturers to downsize engines without sacrificing

performance or to increase performance without lowering fuel

economy

· Integrated

Starter/Generator

Systems

Automatically turns the engine off when vehicle is idling

· Direct Fuel Injection

Delivers higher performance with lower fuel consumption

· Continuously

Variable Transmissions

Employs an infinite number of “gears” to provide seamless

acceleration and improved fuel economy

· Automated Manual

Transmissions

Combines the efficiency of manual transmissions with the

convenience of automatics