is europe prepared for the german energiewende auke lont
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German Norwegian Energy Forum Conference 2012 in BerlinTRANSCRIPT
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Is Europe prepared for the German Energiewende?
Berlin 23 October, Auke Lont, CEO Statnett SF
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What is the Energiewende?
Source & illustration: The Energiewende – Germany's gamble (The Ofxord Institute for Energy Studies, Buchan (2012))
Germany's future electricity mix after the nuclear phase out
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What have we seen so far?
Source: http://www.transparency.eex.com/de/
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What have we seen so far?
Source: http://www.transparency.eex.com/de/
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Interaction between political framework, technology and the market…
…drives progress
Political framework
Technology
Market
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The future is uncertain…
Source: EPIA (2011): "Solar Photovoltaics Competing in the Energy Sector", IEA (2010): Projected Costs of Generating Electricity – 2010 Edition, NREL (2012) ‐ IEA Wind Task 26: The Past And Future Cost Wind Energy.
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…but electricElectricity's share (%) of energy consumption in the EU
Source and Illustration: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050
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Therefore we need a stronger grid – and more interconnectors
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But system stability and costs are already under pressure…
Reduced quality of frequency …
....leads to increased system costs
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…and costs may rise due to conflicting targets and means
Source: EU Road Map 2050
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Current policies High RES
GW installedcapa
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Euro billions to
tal grid
investmen
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Grid investments and installed capacity under two policy scenarios in EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Network investments 2011 ‐ 2050 Installed power capacity 2050
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The market is needed to realize the energy and climate goals for 2050
Until new infrastructure is in place, congestion management, such as price zones, will play an important roleNew mechanisms may undermine the market –e.g. national capacity markets
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The way forward
"Stay the course" "Trust the market""Technology neutrality"
Political framework
Technology
Market
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Europe – towards 2050
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Security of supply in NorwayPower flows during the coldestday ‐ 6th January 2010
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Energy transition in DenmarkElectricity consumption, generation og transmission to Norway 6th og 7th of October 2010
Electricty consumption Jutland
Wind power generationJutland
Transmission Jutland ‐ Norway
Heading for 50 % wind power in 2020
CoffeeTV
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The European energy community towards 2050
Demand side almost fully electrifiedConsiderable electricity trade between countriesNatural gas – supporting renewablesOil – of less importance
- A possible scenario
Germany in the driving seat