is china becoming a high tech superpower ? of chinese manufacturing exports by sector, 2000-2004...

2006 Tokyo Club Macro Conference

Is China Becoming Is China Becoming a High Tech Superpower ?a High Tech Superpower ?

The Contrasted Picture of ChinaThe Contrasted Picture of China’’s s Scientific and Technological CapabilitiesScientific and Technological Capabilities

Frédérique SachwaldIfri

Introduction 1.Introduction 1.

Since 2000, prominence of emerging countries in world trade, in particular China.Inroads of emerging countries in export markets that had long been the preserve of advanced countries: electronics (China), IT services (India), cars (Eastern Europe).

Fears that emerging countries and China in particular are rapidly becoming technological powers and that the leadership (US) or growth potential of advanced countries (Europe) may be threatened.

F. Sachwald, Tokyo Club 6-7 Dec. 2006

Introduction 2. OutlineIntroduction 2. Outline

1. Is China’s export performance in high tech products an economic exception? Rodrik (2006)

2. R&D resources in China

3. China’s R&D output


Is China (really) a Large Exporter of High Tech Products ?

Main Main Exporters Exporters of ICT, $bnof ICT, $bn

Source : SYSPROD-IFRI

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Germany China Korea France Japan UK U.S.


ICT ICT Trade Trade Balance of China, $ millionBalance of China, $ million

-75 000

-60 000

-45 000

-30 000

-15 000

0

15 000

30 000

45 000

60 000

75 000

Computerequipment

Telecom & TVequipment

Electroniccomponents

Other ICT goods

1992 2001 2005



Geographical Geographical Distribution of ChinaDistribution of China ’’ss TradeTradeBalance ICT Balance ICT productsproducts, $ million 2005, $ million 2005

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Computer equipment Telecom & TV equipment Electronic components

ThailandKoreaSingaporeMalaysiaUKFranceJapanU.S.

97% 78 / 91% 92%

F. Sachwald, Tokyo Club 6-7 Dec. 2006Source : SYSPROD-IFRI

Main Main Exporters Exporters of of High High Tech Manufactures, $bnTech Manufactures, $bn

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Germany China Korea France Japan UK U.S.Source : SYSPROD-IFRI


Dynamics Dynamics of of Chinese Manufacturing Chinese Manufacturing Exports Exports by by sectorsector, 2000, 2000--20042004

Food stuff

Tobacco

TextileClothing

Leather

Wood & Paper Printing

Basic chemicals

Mineral products

Pharmaceuticals

Detergents & perfumes

Machinery

Fibres PlasticAgrochemicals

Basic metals

Metal products

Other chemicals

Domestic app.

Computers

Electrical app.

RTC components

Electronic comp.

RTC transmitters

RTC receivers

Instruments

Automobile

Vehicles bodies

Auto. Comp.

Other transport

Aerospace

Furni tureSport

Toys

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Sector's deviation from World's exports growth

Varia

tion

of C

hine

se s

hare

in w

orld

exp

orts

Source : SYSPROD-IFRIF. Sachwald, Tokyo Club 6-7 Dec. 2006

HighHigh Tech Exports as a Tech Exports as a ShareShare of of Manufactured Manufactured Exports, in %Exports, in %

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

EU15 China Korea Japan U.S.

F. Sachwald, Tokyo Club 6-7 Dec. 2006 Source : SYSPROD-IFRI

Contribution of Contribution of HighHigh Tech Industries to the Tech Industries to the Trade Trade Balance, as % of Balance, as % of Manufacturing TradeManufacturing Trade, 2005, 2005


-32

-24

-16

-8

0

8

16

24

32

UK

U.S

.

Sout

h K

orea

Taiw

an*

Fran

ce

Japa

n

Chin

a

Ger

man

y

Ital

y

Low technology Mid-low technology Mid-high technology High technology


ShareShare in in worldworld exports exports ofof manufactures manufactures andand services,services,%%

États-Unis 2004

Royaume-Uni 2004

Suède 2004

Espagne 2004

Pays-Bas 2004

Corée 2004

Japon 2004Italie 2004

Irlande 2004Inde 2004

Allemagne 2004

France 2004

Chine 2004

États-Unis 1992

Royaume-Uni 1992

Suède 1992

Espagne 1992

Pays-Bas 1992

Corée1992

Japon 1992

Italie 1992

Irlande 1992Inde 1992

Allemagne 1992

France 1992

Chine 19920

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14Part dans les exportations mondiales de produits manufacturés

Part

dan

s le

s ex

port

atio

ns m

ondi

ales

de

serv

ices

Source: WTO

Contribution ofContribution of HighHigh Tech Industries to theTech Industries to the TradeTradeBalance, as % ofBalance, as % of Manufacturing TradeManufacturing Trade, 1992, 1992--20052005


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

UK U.S

.

Kor

ea

Taiw

an*

Fran

ce

Japa

n

Chin

a

Ger

man

y

Italy

2005 2001 1992


R&D Resources in China

- R&D Spending and Researchers- Tertiary Education

R&D Resources and IntensityR&D Resources and Intensity

Source : OECD

F. Sachwald, EPFL 23-24 oct. 2006

GERD 2004Million PPP$

GERD as a% of GDP1

Number ofresearchers

2003

Researchersper 000

employment2

US 312,535.4 2.68 1,334,628 9.6Japan 112,714.7 3.15 675,330 10.4China 102,622.9 1.44 926,252 1.2Germany 58,687.6 2.49 268,943 6.9France 39,740.3 2.16 192,790 7.7UK 33,705.7 1.88 157,662 n.a.Korea 24,273.7 2.63 151,254 6.8Canada 19,326.5 1.93 112,624 7.2Russia 16,457.8 1.29 477,647 7.1Taiwan 13,493.6 2.45 67,599 7.1Spain 11,071.8 1.05 92,523 5.2Sweden 10,340.0 3.98 47,836 11.0Australia 9,608.6 1.69 73,344 7.8

Students Enrolled in Tertiary Education, 2004Students Enrolled in Tertiary Education, 2004

CountryTotal enrolment

in tertiary educationTertiary studentsper 100,000 hab.

China 19,417,044 1,494United States 16,900,471 5,776India 11,852,936 1,107Japan 4,031,604 3,146Mexico 2,322,781 2,226United Kingdom 2,247,441 3,791Germany 2,185,224 2,660France 2,160,300 3,600

Source : UNESCO


The Supply Paradox:The Supply Paradox:Comparing Tertiary Education AttainmentComparing Tertiary Education Attainment

- Comparing degrees Bachelor degrees in Engineering, Computer science, Electrical and IT: 644,100 in China, 215,000 in India, 222,300 in the U.S.

(Gereffi and Wadhwa 2006)

- Employability Surveys and interviews with multinational companies hiring engineers in China

- Lower educational attainment than East Asian countries Bosworth and Collins (Tokyo Club contribution)


Assessment of China’s R&D Output and Overall S&T Capabilities

World Share of Scientific Publications, in %World Share of Scientific Publications, in %

Korea France China FRG UK Japan USA EU-151993 0.18 5.98 1.69 7.45 8.89 8.19 34.73 33.781994 0.58 5.99 1.70 7.54 8.97 8.57 33.66 34.121997 1.16 6.31 2.66 8.32 8.73 8.98 31.94 35.722000 1.76 6.31 3.89 8.69 9.22 9.49 30.93 36.552003 2.43 6.10 5.51 8.35 8.46 9.40 30.68 35.962004 2.70 5.81 6.52 8.11 8.33 8.81 30.18 35.18

Source : Zhou and Leydesdorff (2006)


RankingRanking of Countries for of Countries for ScientificScientific Publications Publications andand Citations, 2003Citations, 2003

Rank Country Number of papers Average citations perpaper

1 United States 2,705,652 122 Japan 713,542 73 Germany 655,586 94 United Kingdom 598,470 105 France 484,291 96 Canada 358,007 107 Italy 310,557 88 Russia 285,856 39 China 236,996 310 Australia 211,549 816 South Korea 111,406 4

Source : Seong et al. (2005)


Number Number of of Chinese Chinese Invention Patent Invention Patent GrantsGrants, , 19961996--20042004

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

Foreign inventions

Domestic inventions

Source : China ’s National Bureau of Statistics


Four Classifications of National S&T Four Classifications of National S&T CapabilitiesCapabilitiesComparison between the

four classificationsScience andTechnologyCapacityIndexRAND

TechnologyAchievementIndexUNDP

Indicator ofTechnologicalCapabilitiesArtCo

TechnologyIndexWEF Rank

meanStandarddev.

Rank onthe mean

US 1 2 4 1 2.0 1.41 1Finland 4 1 2 3 2.5 1.29 2Sweden 3 3 1 5 3.0 1.63 3Canada 2 9 5 2 4.5 3.32 4Australia 8 10 8 4 7.5 2.52 5Norway 10 12 6 6 8.5 3.00 6Japan 5 4 7 19 8.8 6.95 7UK 9 7 11 8 8.8 1.71 8Netherlands 12 6 9 11 9.5 2.65 9Germany 6 11 10 12 9.8 2.63 10Korea 16 5 15 7 10.8 5.56 11Mexico 36 30 35 29 32.5 3.51 34South Africa 32 35 32 34 33.3 1.50 35Thailand 41 36 37 31 36.3 4.11 36Brazil 35 37 38 37 36.8 1.26 37Philippines 42 38 39 32 37.8 4.19 38China 33 39 41 39 38.0 3.46 39Egypt 43 43 44 43 43.3 0.50 43India 37 46 47 44 43.5 4.51 44

TI 2004

Conclusions 1.Conclusions 1.

A contrasted picture of China ’s S&T capabilities

- Size vs. Intensity: R&D spending, number of researchers

- Quantity vs. Quality: Tertiry education, publications, patents

- Stocks vs. Flows: cumulated investment vs dynamic growth

- Domestic vs. Global contributions ? Large role of foreign firms and global connections


Conclusions 2.Conclusions 2.

Has China ’s technological capability « taken off » ?- Clearly above 1% R&D intensity ?- The path between 1 and 2%

R&D efficiency: linkages between public research and firms’ R&D

Domestic innovation capability and technonationalism


is china becoming a high tech superpower ? of chinese manufacturing exports by sector, 2000-2004...

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