irstea - june 2013 - annex 3
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A risk-based decision-making
game relevant to water
management.
Try it yourself!
2013. This game was prepared by Louise Crochemore (IRSTEA), Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF),
Schalk Jan van Andel (UNESCO-IHE), Maria-Helena Ramos (IRSTEA) and Andy Wood (NOAA).
If you use this game, the authors would be grateful for feedback on your usage and results so as to
help improve future versions of the game and justify further development efforts. Special thanks to
Kevin Werner (NWS), a key designer of the original game on which this one is based.
Contact: [email protected]
This game is part of HEPEX activities: www.hepex.org START
General instructions: use full screen mode. Always click on the appropriate links in each slide.
Do not use Page Up, Page Down or arrow keys for scrolling.
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You are the newly appointed water manager for Lake Dual
It is a reservoir that serves two primary functions:
1. Water supply for Swof Town
2. Flood control for Safe Town
Water management game: instructions
Water Supply
Flood Control
Swof Town
Safe Town
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
NEXT
2
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Water management game: instructions
1. Swof Town: would like to see the reservoir full on August 1st (500 Mm3)
so that its residents can count on water all summer.
2. Safe Town: residents are interested in keeping releases below 60 Mm3
each month (anything more causes flood damage to their homes)
Water Supply
Flood Control
Swof Town
Safe Town
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
NEXT
3
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Water management game: instructions
You are going to be the water manager for Lake Dual during the season
running from April to August:
- you will be presented with probabilistic forecasts of inflows, and
- at the beginning of each month you have to decide on the reservoir
releases for the remaining months.
Water Supply
Flood Control
Swof Town
Safe Town
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
NEXT
4
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Water management game: remember!
your aim is to have the reservoir level as close as possible to 500 Mm3 on
August 1st, but you can never exceed this level.
You have to maintain a minimum release of 15 Mm3 for environmental flow and
your maximum release cannot exceed 60 Mm3.
If you fail to meet these constraints, you will be fired! The WINNER of the game is
the manager that has the highest level on August 1st (but < 500 Mm3)
Water Supply
Flood Control
Safe Town
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
Swof Town
NEXT
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Water management game: worksheet
You have a worksheet to mark your decisions!
Remember to return it after the game!
NOW LET’S DO AN EXAMPLE BEFORE WE START !
NEXT
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Its March 1st:
this is the probabilistic forecast of inflows
issued on March 1st for the next months
Water management game: example
NEXT
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You have to decide on your releases for all the next months…
Mark the releases in your worksheet!
Water management game: example
NEXT
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Water management game: example
At the end of the month, you will be informed of the actual inflow
And you can update your reservoir volume for the next month
NEXT
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Water management game: example
Update your worksheet and check if you still have a job!
You’re ready to go to the next forecast and decision
NEXT
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Water management game: let’s play!
To represent the group….
We need a VOLUNTEER !
Who in the room?
Worksheets shall be used to indicate your own releases
NEXT
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Water management game: let’s play!
Water Supply
Flood Control
Swof Town
Safe Town
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
Game Start
12
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It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
13
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
14
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
15
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
16
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Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
17
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Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
18
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
19
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
20
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Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
21
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Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
22
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
23
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 519 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
24
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Previous decisions: A A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 519 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
25
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Previous decisions: A A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
26
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
27
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
519 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 481 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
28
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Previous decisions: A A A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
29
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It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
30
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
31
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
32
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
33
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Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
34
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Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
35
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
36
![Page 37: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
37
![Page 38: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
38
![Page 39: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
39
![Page 40: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
40
![Page 41: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
41
![Page 42: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
42
![Page 43: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
43
![Page 44: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
44
![Page 45: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 463 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
45
![Page 46: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
46
![Page 47: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
47
![Page 48: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
48
![Page 49: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
49
![Page 50: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
50
![Page 51: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
51
![Page 52: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
52
![Page 53: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
53
![Page 54: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
54
![Page 55: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
55
![Page 56: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
56
![Page 57: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
57
![Page 58: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 539 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
58
![Page 59: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 539 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
59
![Page 60: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
60
![Page 61: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
61
![Page 62: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
539 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
62
![Page 63: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
63
![Page 64: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
64
![Page 65: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
65
![Page 66: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
66
![Page 67: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
67
![Page 68: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
68
![Page 69: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
69
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
70
![Page 71: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
71
![Page 72: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
72
![Page 73: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
73
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
74
![Page 75: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 533 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
75
![Page 76: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 533 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
76
![Page 77: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
77
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
78
![Page 79: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
533 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 495 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
79
![Page 80: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
80
![Page 81: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
81
![Page 82: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
82
![Page 83: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
83
![Page 84: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
84
![Page 85: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
85
![Page 86: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
86
![Page 87: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
87
![Page 88: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
88
![Page 89: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
89
![Page 90: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
90
![Page 91: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
91
![Page 92: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 515 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
92
![Page 93: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 515 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
93
![Page 94: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
94
![Page 95: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
95
![Page 96: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
515 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 477 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
96
![Page 97: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
97
![Page 98: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
98
![Page 99: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
99
![Page 100: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
100
![Page 101: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
101
![Page 102: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
102
![Page 103: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
103
![Page 104: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
104
![Page 105: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
105
![Page 106: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
106
![Page 107: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/107.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
107
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
108
![Page 109: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/109.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 553 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
109
![Page 110: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/110.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 553 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
110
![Page 111: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/111.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
111
![Page 112: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/112.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
112
![Page 113: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/113.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
553 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 515 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
113
![Page 114: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/114.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
114
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It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
115
![Page 116: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/116.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
116
![Page 117: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/117.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
117
![Page 118: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/118.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
118
![Page 119: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/119.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
119
![Page 120: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/120.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
120
![Page 121: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/121.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
121
![Page 122: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/122.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
122
![Page 123: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/123.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
123
![Page 124: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/124.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
124
![Page 125: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/125.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
125
![Page 126: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/126.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 552 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
126
![Page 127: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/127.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 552 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
127
![Page 128: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/128.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
128
![Page 129: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/129.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
129
![Page 130: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/130.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
552 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 514 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
130
![Page 131: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/131.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
131
![Page 132: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/132.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
132
![Page 133: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/133.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
133
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
134
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
135
![Page 136: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/136.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
136
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Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
137
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
138
![Page 139: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/139.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
139
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Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
140
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Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
141
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
142
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 534 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
143
![Page 144: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/144.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 534 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
144
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Previous decisions: B C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
145
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
146
![Page 147: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/147.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
534 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 496 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
147
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Previous decisions: B C A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
148
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It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
149
![Page 150: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/150.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
150
![Page 151: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/151.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
151
![Page 152: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/152.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
152
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Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
153
![Page 154: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/154.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
154
![Page 155: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/155.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
155
![Page 156: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/156.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
156
![Page 157: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/157.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
157
![Page 158: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/158.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
158
![Page 159: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/159.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
159
![Page 160: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/160.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 572 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
160
![Page 161: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/161.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 572 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
161
![Page 162: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/162.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
162
![Page 163: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/163.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
163
![Page 164: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/164.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
572 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 534 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
164
![Page 165: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/165.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
165
![Page 166: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/166.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
166
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
167
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
168
![Page 169: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/169.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
169
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Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
170
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Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
171
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
172
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
173
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Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
174
![Page 175: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/175.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
175
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
176
![Page 177: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/177.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 487 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
177
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Previous decisions: A A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 487 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
178
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Previous decisions: A A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
179
![Page 180: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/180.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
180
![Page 181: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/181.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
487 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 449 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
181
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Previous decisions: A A B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
182
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It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
183
![Page 184: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/184.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
184
![Page 185: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/185.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
185
![Page 186: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/186.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
186
![Page 187: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/187.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
187
![Page 188: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/188.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
188
![Page 189: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/189.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
189
![Page 190: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/190.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
190
![Page 191: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/191.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
191
![Page 192: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/192.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
192
![Page 193: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/193.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
193
![Page 194: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/194.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 469 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
194
![Page 195: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/195.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 469 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
195
![Page 196: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/196.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
196
![Page 197: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/197.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
197
![Page 198: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/198.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
469 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
198
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Previous decisions: B A B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
199
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It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
200
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
201
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
202
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
203
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Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
204
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Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
205
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
206
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
207
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Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
208
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Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
209
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
210
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 507 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
211
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Previous decisions: C A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 507 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
212
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Previous decisions: C A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
213
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
214
![Page 215: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/215.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
507 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 469 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
215
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Previous decisions: C A B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
216
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It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
217
![Page 218: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/218.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
218
![Page 219: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/219.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
219
![Page 220: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/220.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
220
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Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
221
![Page 222: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/222.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
222
![Page 223: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/223.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
223
![Page 224: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/224.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
224
![Page 225: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/225.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
225
![Page 226: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/226.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
226
![Page 227: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/227.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
227
![Page 228: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/228.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
228
![Page 229: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/229.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
229
![Page 230: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/230.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
230
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
231
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 463 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
232
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Previous decisions: A B B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
233
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It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
234
![Page 235: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/235.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
235
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
236
![Page 237: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/237.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
237
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Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
238
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Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
239
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
240
![Page 241: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/241.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
241
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Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
242
![Page 243: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/243.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
243
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
244
![Page 245: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/245.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
245
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Previous decisions: B B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 483 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
246
![Page 247: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/247.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
247
![Page 248: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/248.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
248
![Page 249: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/249.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
483 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 445 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
249
![Page 250: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/250.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
250
![Page 251: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/251.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
251
![Page 252: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/252.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
252
![Page 253: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/253.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
253
![Page 254: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/254.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
254
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Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
255
![Page 256: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/256.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
256
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
257
![Page 258: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/258.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
258
![Page 259: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/259.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
259
![Page 260: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/260.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
260
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
261
![Page 262: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/262.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 521 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
262
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Previous decisions: C B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 521 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
263
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Previous decisions: C B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
264
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
265
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
521 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
266
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Previous decisions: C B B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
267
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It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
268
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
269
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
270
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April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
271
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Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
272
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Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
273
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
274
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May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
275
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Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
276
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Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
277
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
278
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 520 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
279
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Previous decisions: A C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 520 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
280
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Previous decisions: A C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
281
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
282
![Page 283: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/283.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
520 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 482 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
283
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Previous decisions: A C B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
284
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It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
285
![Page 286: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/286.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
286
![Page 287: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/287.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
287
![Page 288: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/288.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
288
![Page 289: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/289.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
289
![Page 290: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/290.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
290
![Page 291: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/291.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
291
![Page 292: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/292.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
292
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Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
293
![Page 294: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/294.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
294
![Page 295: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/295.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
295
![Page 296: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/296.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
296
![Page 297: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/297.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
297
![Page 298: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/298.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
298
![Page 299: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/299.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
299
![Page 300: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/300.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 464 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
300
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Previous decisions: B C B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
301
![Page 302: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/302.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
302
![Page 303: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/303.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
303
![Page 304: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/304.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
304
![Page 305: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/305.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
305
![Page 306: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/306.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
306
![Page 307: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/307.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
307
![Page 308: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/308.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
308
![Page 309: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/309.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
309
![Page 310: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/310.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
310
![Page 311: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/311.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
311
![Page 312: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/312.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
312
![Page 313: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/313.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 540 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
313
![Page 314: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/314.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 540 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
314
![Page 315: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/315.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
315
![Page 316: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/316.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
316
![Page 317: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/317.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
540 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
317
![Page 318: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/318.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
318
![Page 319: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/319.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
319
![Page 320: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/320.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
320
![Page 321: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/321.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
321
![Page 322: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/322.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
322
![Page 323: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/323.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
323
![Page 324: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/324.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
324
![Page 325: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/325.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
325
![Page 326: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/326.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
326
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Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
327
![Page 328: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/328.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
328
![Page 329: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/329.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
329
![Page 330: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/330.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
330
![Page 331: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/331.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
331
![Page 332: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/332.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
332
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
333
![Page 334: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/334.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 464 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
334
![Page 335: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/335.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
335
![Page 336: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/336.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
336
![Page 337: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/337.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
337
![Page 338: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/338.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
338
![Page 339: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/339.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
339
![Page 340: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/340.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
340
![Page 341: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/341.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
341
![Page 342: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/342.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
342
![Page 343: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/343.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
343
![Page 344: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/344.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
344
![Page 345: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/345.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
345
![Page 346: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/346.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
346
![Page 347: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/347.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
347
![Page 348: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/348.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 484 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
348
![Page 349: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/349.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
349
![Page 350: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/350.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
350
![Page 351: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/351.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
484 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 446 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
351
![Page 352: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/352.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
352
![Page 353: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/353.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
353
![Page 354: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/354.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
354
![Page 355: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/355.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
355
![Page 356: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/356.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
356
![Page 357: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/357.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
357
![Page 358: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/358.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
358
![Page 359: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/359.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
359
![Page 360: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/360.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
360
![Page 361: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/361.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
361
![Page 362: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/362.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
362
![Page 363: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/363.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
363
![Page 364: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/364.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 522 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
364
![Page 365: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/365.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 522 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
365
![Page 366: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/366.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
366
![Page 367: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/367.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
367
![Page 368: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/368.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
522 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
368
![Page 369: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/369.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
369
![Page 370: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/370.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
370
![Page 371: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/371.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
371
![Page 372: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/372.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
372
![Page 373: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/373.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
373
![Page 374: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/374.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
374
![Page 375: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/375.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
375
![Page 376: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/376.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
376
![Page 377: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/377.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
377
![Page 378: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/378.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
378
![Page 379: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/379.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
379
![Page 380: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/380.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
380
![Page 381: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/381.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 516 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
381
![Page 382: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/382.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 516 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
382
![Page 383: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/383.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
383
![Page 384: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/384.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
384
![Page 385: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/385.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
516 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 478 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
385
![Page 386: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/386.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
386
![Page 387: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/387.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
387
![Page 388: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/388.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
388
![Page 389: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/389.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
389
![Page 390: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/390.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
390
![Page 391: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/391.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
391
![Page 392: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/392.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
392
![Page 393: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/393.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
393
![Page 394: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/394.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
394
![Page 395: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/395.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
395
![Page 396: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/396.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
396
![Page 397: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/397.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
397
![Page 398: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/398.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
398
![Page 399: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/399.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 498 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
399
![Page 400: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/400.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
400
![Page 401: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/401.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
401
![Page 402: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/402.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
498 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
402
![Page 403: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/403.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
403
![Page 404: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/404.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
404
![Page 405: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/405.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
405
![Page 406: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/406.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
406
![Page 407: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/407.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
407
![Page 408: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/408.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
408
![Page 409: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/409.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
409
![Page 410: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/410.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
410
![Page 411: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/411.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
411
![Page 412: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/412.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
412
![Page 413: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/413.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
413
![Page 414: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/414.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
414
![Page 415: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/415.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 536 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
415
![Page 416: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/416.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 536 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
416
![Page 417: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/417.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
417
![Page 418: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/418.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
418
![Page 419: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/419.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
536 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
419
![Page 420: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/420.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
420
![Page 421: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/421.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
421
![Page 422: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/422.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
422
![Page 423: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/423.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
423
![Page 424: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/424.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
424
![Page 425: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/425.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
425
![Page 426: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/426.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
426
![Page 427: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/427.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
427
![Page 428: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/428.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
428
![Page 429: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/429.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
429
![Page 430: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/430.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
430
![Page 431: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/431.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
431
![Page 432: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/432.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 535 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
432
![Page 433: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/433.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 535 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
433
![Page 434: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/434.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
434
![Page 435: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/435.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
435
![Page 436: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/436.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
535 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 497 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
436
![Page 437: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/437.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
437
![Page 438: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/438.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
438
![Page 439: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/439.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
439
![Page 440: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/440.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
440
![Page 441: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/441.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
441
![Page 442: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/442.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
442
![Page 443: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/443.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
443
![Page 444: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/444.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
444
![Page 445: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/445.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
445
![Page 446: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/446.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
446
![Page 447: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/447.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
447
![Page 448: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/448.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
448
![Page 449: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/449.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
449
![Page 450: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/450.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 517 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
450
![Page 451: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/451.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
451
![Page 452: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/452.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
452
![Page 453: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/453.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
517 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 479 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
453
![Page 454: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/454.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
454
![Page 455: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/455.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
455
![Page 456: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/456.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
456
![Page 457: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/457.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
457
![Page 458: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/458.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
458
![Page 459: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/459.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
459
![Page 460: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/460.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
460
![Page 461: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/461.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
461
![Page 462: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/462.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
462
![Page 463: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/463.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
463
![Page 464: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/464.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
464
![Page 465: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/465.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
465
![Page 466: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/466.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 555 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
466
![Page 467: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/467.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 555 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
467
![Page 468: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/468.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
468
![Page 469: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/469.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
469
![Page 470: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/470.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
555 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
470
![Page 471: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/471.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
471
![Page 472: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/472.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
472
![Page 473: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/473.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
473
![Page 474: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/474.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
474
![Page 475: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/475.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
475
![Page 476: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/476.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
476
![Page 477: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/477.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
477
![Page 478: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/478.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
478
![Page 479: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/479.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
479
![Page 480: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/480.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
480
![Page 481: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/481.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
481
![Page 482: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/482.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
482
![Page 483: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/483.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 519 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
483
![Page 484: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/484.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 519 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
484
![Page 485: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/485.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
485
![Page 486: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/486.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
486
![Page 487: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/487.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
519 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 516 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
487
![Page 488: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/488.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
488
![Page 489: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/489.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
489
![Page 490: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/490.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
490
![Page 491: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/491.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
491
![Page 492: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/492.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
492
![Page 493: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/493.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
493
![Page 494: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/494.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
494
![Page 495: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/495.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
495
![Page 496: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/496.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
496
![Page 497: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/497.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
497
![Page 498: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/498.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
498
![Page 499: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/499.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
499
![Page 500: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/500.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
500
![Page 501: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/501.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
501
![Page 502: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/502.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
502
![Page 503: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/503.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
503
![Page 504: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/504.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
504
![Page 505: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/505.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
505
![Page 506: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/506.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
506
![Page 507: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/507.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
507
![Page 508: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/508.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
508
![Page 509: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/509.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
509
![Page 510: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/510.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
510
![Page 511: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/511.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
511
![Page 512: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/512.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
512
![Page 513: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/513.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
513
![Page 514: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/514.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
514
![Page 515: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/515.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
515
![Page 516: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/516.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
516
![Page 517: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/517.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 539 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
517
![Page 518: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/518.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 539 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
518
![Page 519: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/519.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
519
![Page 520: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/520.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
520
![Page 521: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/521.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
539 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 536 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
521
![Page 522: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/522.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
522
![Page 523: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/523.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
523
![Page 524: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/524.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
524
![Page 525: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/525.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
525
![Page 526: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/526.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
526
![Page 527: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/527.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
527
![Page 528: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/528.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
528
![Page 529: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/529.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
529
![Page 530: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/530.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
530
![Page 531: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/531.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
531
![Page 532: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/532.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
532
![Page 533: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/533.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
533
![Page 534: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/534.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 533 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
534
![Page 535: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/535.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 533 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
535
![Page 536: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/536.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
536
![Page 537: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/537.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
537
![Page 538: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/538.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
533 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 530 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
538
![Page 539: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/539.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
539
![Page 540: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/540.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
540
![Page 541: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/541.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
541
![Page 542: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/542.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
542
![Page 543: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/543.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
543
![Page 544: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/544.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
544
![Page 545: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/545.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
545
![Page 546: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/546.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
546
![Page 547: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/547.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
547
![Page 548: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/548.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
548
![Page 549: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/549.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
549
![Page 550: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/550.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
550
![Page 551: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/551.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 515 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
551
![Page 552: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/552.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 515 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
552
![Page 553: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/553.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
553
![Page 554: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/554.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
554
![Page 555: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/555.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
515 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 512 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
555
![Page 556: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/556.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
556
![Page 557: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/557.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
557
![Page 558: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/558.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
558
![Page 559: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/559.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
559
![Page 560: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/560.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
560
![Page 561: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/561.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
561
![Page 562: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/562.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
562
![Page 563: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/563.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
563
![Page 564: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/564.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
564
![Page 565: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/565.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
565
![Page 566: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/566.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
566
![Page 567: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/567.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
567
![Page 568: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/568.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 553 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
568
![Page 569: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/569.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 553 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
569
![Page 570: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/570.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
570
![Page 571: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/571.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
571
![Page 572: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/572.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
553 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 550 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
572
![Page 573: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/573.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
573
![Page 574: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/574.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
574
![Page 575: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/575.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
575
![Page 576: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/576.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
576
![Page 577: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/577.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
577
![Page 578: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/578.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
578
![Page 579: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/579.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
579
![Page 580: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/580.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
580
![Page 581: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/581.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
581
![Page 582: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/582.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
582
![Page 583: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/583.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
583
![Page 584: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/584.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
584
![Page 585: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/585.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 552 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
585
![Page 586: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/586.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 552 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
586
![Page 587: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/587.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
587
![Page 588: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/588.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
588
![Page 589: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/589.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
552 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 549 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
589
![Page 590: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/590.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
590
![Page 591: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/591.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
591
![Page 592: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/592.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
592
![Page 593: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/593.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
593
![Page 594: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/594.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
594
![Page 595: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/595.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
595
![Page 596: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/596.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
596
![Page 597: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/597.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
597
![Page 598: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/598.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
598
![Page 599: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/599.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
599
![Page 600: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/600.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
600
![Page 601: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/601.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
601
![Page 602: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/602.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 534 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
602
![Page 603: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/603.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 534 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
603
![Page 604: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/604.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
604
![Page 605: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/605.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
605
![Page 606: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/606.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
534 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 531 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
606
![Page 607: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/607.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
607
![Page 608: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/608.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
608
![Page 609: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/609.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
609
![Page 610: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/610.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
610
![Page 611: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/611.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
611
![Page 612: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/612.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
612
![Page 613: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/613.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
613
![Page 614: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/614.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
614
![Page 615: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/615.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
615
![Page 616: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/616.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
616
![Page 617: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/617.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
617
![Page 618: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/618.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
618
![Page 619: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/619.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 572 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
619
![Page 620: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/620.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 572 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
620
![Page 621: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/621.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
621
![Page 622: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/622.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
622
![Page 623: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/623.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
572 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 569 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
623
![Page 624: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/624.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
624
![Page 625: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/625.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
625
![Page 626: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/626.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
626
![Page 627: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/627.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
627
![Page 628: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/628.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
628
![Page 629: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/629.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
629
![Page 630: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/630.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
630
![Page 631: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/631.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
631
![Page 632: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/632.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
632
![Page 633: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/633.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
633
![Page 634: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/634.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
634
![Page 635: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/635.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
635
![Page 636: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/636.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 487 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
636
![Page 637: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/637.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 487 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
637
![Page 638: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/638.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
638
![Page 639: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/639.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
639
![Page 640: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/640.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
487 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
640
![Page 641: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/641.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
641
![Page 642: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/642.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
642
![Page 643: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/643.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
643
![Page 644: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/644.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
644
![Page 645: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/645.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
645
![Page 646: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/646.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
646
![Page 647: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/647.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
647
![Page 648: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/648.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
648
![Page 649: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/649.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
649
![Page 650: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/650.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
650
![Page 651: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/651.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
651
![Page 652: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/652.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
652
![Page 653: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/653.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 469 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
653
![Page 654: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/654.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 469 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
654
![Page 655: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/655.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
655
![Page 656: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/656.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
656
![Page 657: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/657.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
469 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 466 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
657
![Page 658: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/658.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
658
![Page 659: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/659.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
659
![Page 660: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/660.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
660
![Page 661: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/661.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
661
![Page 662: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/662.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
662
![Page 663: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/663.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
663
![Page 664: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/664.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
664
![Page 665: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/665.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
665
![Page 666: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/666.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
666
![Page 667: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/667.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
667
![Page 668: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/668.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
668
![Page 669: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/669.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
669
![Page 670: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/670.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 507 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
670
![Page 671: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/671.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 507 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
671
![Page 672: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/672.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
672
![Page 673: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/673.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
673
![Page 674: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/674.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
507 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 504 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
674
![Page 675: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/675.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
675
![Page 676: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/676.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
676
![Page 677: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/677.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
677
![Page 678: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/678.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
678
![Page 679: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/679.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
679
![Page 680: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/680.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
680
![Page 681: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/681.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
681
![Page 682: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/682.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
682
![Page 683: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/683.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
683
![Page 684: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/684.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
684
![Page 685: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/685.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
685
![Page 686: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/686.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
686
![Page 687: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/687.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
687
![Page 688: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/688.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
688
![Page 689: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/689.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
689
![Page 690: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/690.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
690
![Page 691: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/691.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
691
![Page 692: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/692.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
692
![Page 693: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/693.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
693
![Page 694: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/694.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
694
![Page 695: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/695.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
695
![Page 696: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/696.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
696
![Page 697: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/697.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
697
![Page 698: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/698.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
698
![Page 699: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/699.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
699
![Page 700: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/700.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
700
![Page 701: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/701.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
701
![Page 702: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/702.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
702
![Page 703: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/703.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
703
![Page 704: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/704.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
704
![Page 705: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/705.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 483 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
705
![Page 706: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/706.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
706
![Page 707: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/707.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
707
![Page 708: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/708.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
483 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
708
![Page 709: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/709.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
709
![Page 710: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/710.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
710
![Page 711: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/711.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
711
![Page 712: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/712.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
712
![Page 713: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/713.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
713
![Page 714: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/714.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
714
![Page 715: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/715.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
715
![Page 716: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/716.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
716
![Page 717: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/717.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
717
![Page 718: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/718.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
718
![Page 719: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/719.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
719
![Page 720: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/720.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
720
![Page 721: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/721.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 521 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
721
![Page 722: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/722.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 521 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
722
![Page 723: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/723.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
723
![Page 724: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/724.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
724
![Page 725: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/725.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
521 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 518 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
725
![Page 726: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/726.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
726
![Page 727: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/727.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
727
![Page 728: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/728.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
728
![Page 729: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/729.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
729
![Page 730: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/730.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
730
![Page 731: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/731.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
731
![Page 732: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/732.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
732
![Page 733: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/733.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
733
![Page 734: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/734.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
734
![Page 735: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/735.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
735
![Page 736: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/736.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
736
![Page 737: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/737.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
737
![Page 738: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/738.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 520 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
738
![Page 739: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/739.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 520 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
739
![Page 740: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/740.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
740
![Page 741: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/741.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
741
![Page 742: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/742.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
520 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
742
![Page 743: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/743.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
743
![Page 744: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/744.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
744
![Page 745: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/745.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
745
![Page 746: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/746.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
746
![Page 747: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/747.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
747
![Page 748: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/748.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
748
![Page 749: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/749.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
749
![Page 750: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/750.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
750
![Page 751: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/751.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
751
![Page 752: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/752.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
752
![Page 753: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/753.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
753
![Page 754: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/754.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
754
![Page 755: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/755.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
755
![Page 756: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/756.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
756
![Page 757: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/757.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
757
![Page 758: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/758.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
758
![Page 759: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/759.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 499 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
759
![Page 760: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/760.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
760
![Page 761: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/761.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
761
![Page 762: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/762.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
762
![Page 763: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/763.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
763
![Page 764: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/764.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
764
![Page 765: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/765.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
765
![Page 766: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/766.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
766
![Page 767: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/767.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
767
![Page 768: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/768.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
768
![Page 769: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/769.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
769
![Page 770: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/770.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
770
![Page 771: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/771.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
771
![Page 772: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/772.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 540 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
772
![Page 773: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/773.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 540 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
773
![Page 774: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/774.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
774
![Page 775: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/775.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
775
![Page 776: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/776.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
540 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 537 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
776
![Page 777: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/777.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
777
![Page 778: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/778.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
778
![Page 779: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/779.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
779
![Page 780: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/780.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
780
![Page 781: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/781.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
781
![Page 782: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/782.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
782
![Page 783: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/783.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
783
![Page 784: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/784.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
784
![Page 785: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/785.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
785
![Page 786: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/786.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
786
![Page 787: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/787.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
787
![Page 788: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/788.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
788
![Page 789: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/789.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
789
![Page 790: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/790.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
790
![Page 791: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/791.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
791
![Page 792: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/792.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
792
![Page 793: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/793.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 499 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
793
![Page 794: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/794.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
794
![Page 795: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/795.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
795
![Page 796: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/796.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
796
![Page 797: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/797.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
797
![Page 798: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/798.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
798
![Page 799: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/799.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
799
![Page 800: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/800.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
800
![Page 801: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/801.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
801
![Page 802: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/802.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
802
![Page 803: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/803.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
803
![Page 804: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/804.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
804
![Page 805: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/805.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
805
![Page 806: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/806.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
806
![Page 807: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/807.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 484 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
807
![Page 808: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/808.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
808
![Page 809: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/809.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
809
![Page 810: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/810.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
484 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 481 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
810
![Page 811: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/811.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
811
![Page 812: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/812.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
812
![Page 813: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/813.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
813
![Page 814: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/814.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
814
![Page 815: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/815.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
815
![Page 816: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/816.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
816
![Page 817: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/817.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
817
![Page 818: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/818.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
818
![Page 819: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/819.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
819
![Page 820: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/820.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
820
![Page 821: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/821.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
821
![Page 822: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/822.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
822
![Page 823: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/823.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 522 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
823
![Page 824: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/824.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 522 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
824
![Page 825: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/825.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
825
![Page 826: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/826.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
826
![Page 827: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/827.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
522 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 519 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
827
![Page 828: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/828.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
828
![Page 829: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/829.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
829
![Page 830: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/830.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
830
![Page 831: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/831.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
831
![Page 832: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/832.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
832
![Page 833: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/833.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
833
![Page 834: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/834.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
834
![Page 835: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/835.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
835
![Page 836: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/836.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
836
![Page 837: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/837.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
837
![Page 838: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/838.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
838
![Page 839: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/839.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
839
![Page 840: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/840.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 516 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
840
![Page 841: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/841.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 516 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
841
![Page 842: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/842.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
842
![Page 843: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/843.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
843
![Page 844: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/844.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
516 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 513 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
844
![Page 845: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/845.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
845
![Page 846: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/846.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
846
![Page 847: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/847.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
847
![Page 848: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/848.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
848
![Page 849: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/849.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
849
![Page 850: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/850.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
850
![Page 851: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/851.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
851
![Page 852: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/852.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
852
![Page 853: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/853.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
853
![Page 854: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/854.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
854
![Page 855: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/855.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
855
![Page 856: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/856.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
856
![Page 857: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/857.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
857
![Page 858: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/858.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 498 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
858
![Page 859: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/859.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
859
![Page 860: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/860.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
860
![Page 861: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/861.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
498 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 495 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
861
![Page 862: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/862.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
862
![Page 863: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/863.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
863
![Page 864: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/864.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
864
![Page 865: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/865.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
865
![Page 866: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/866.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
866
![Page 867: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/867.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
867
![Page 868: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/868.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
868
![Page 869: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/869.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
869
![Page 870: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/870.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
870
![Page 871: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/871.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
871
![Page 872: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/872.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
872
![Page 873: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/873.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
873
![Page 874: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/874.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 536 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
874
![Page 875: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/875.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 536 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
875
![Page 876: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/876.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
876
![Page 877: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/877.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
877
![Page 878: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/878.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
536 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 533 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
878
![Page 879: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/879.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
879
![Page 880: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/880.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
880
![Page 881: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/881.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
881
![Page 882: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/882.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
882
![Page 883: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/883.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
883
![Page 884: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/884.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
884
![Page 885: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/885.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
885
![Page 886: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/886.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
886
![Page 887: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/887.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
887
![Page 888: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/888.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
888
![Page 889: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/889.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
889
![Page 890: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/890.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
890
![Page 891: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/891.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 535 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
891
![Page 892: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/892.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 535 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
892
![Page 893: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/893.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
893
![Page 894: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/894.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
894
![Page 895: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/895.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
535 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 532 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
895
![Page 896: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/896.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
896
![Page 897: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/897.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
897
![Page 898: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/898.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
898
![Page 899: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/899.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
899
![Page 900: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/900.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
900
![Page 901: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/901.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
901
![Page 902: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/902.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
902
![Page 903: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/903.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
903
![Page 904: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/904.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
904
![Page 905: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/905.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
905
![Page 906: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/906.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
906
![Page 907: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/907.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
907
![Page 908: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/908.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
908
![Page 909: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/909.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 517 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
909
![Page 910: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/910.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
910
![Page 911: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/911.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
911
![Page 912: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/912.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
517 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 514 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
912
![Page 913: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/913.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
913
![Page 914: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/914.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
914
![Page 915: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/915.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
915
![Page 916: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/916.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
916
![Page 917: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/917.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
917
![Page 918: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/918.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
918
![Page 919: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/919.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
919
![Page 920: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/920.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
920
![Page 921: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/921.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
921
![Page 922: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/922.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
922
![Page 923: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/923.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
923
![Page 924: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/924.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
924
![Page 925: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/925.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 555 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
925
![Page 926: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/926.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 555 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
926
![Page 927: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/927.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
927
![Page 928: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/928.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
928
![Page 929: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/929.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
555 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 552 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
929
![Page 930: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/930.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
930
![Page 931: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/931.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
931
![Page 932: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/932.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
932
![Page 933: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/933.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
933
![Page 934: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/934.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
934
![Page 935: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/935.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
935
![Page 936: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/936.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
936
![Page 937: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/937.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
937
![Page 938: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/938.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
938
![Page 939: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/939.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
939
![Page 940: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/940.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
940
![Page 941: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/941.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
941
![Page 942: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/942.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 519 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
942
![Page 943: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/943.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 519 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
943
![Page 944: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/944.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
944
![Page 945: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/945.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
945
![Page 946: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/946.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
519 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
946
![Page 947: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/947.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
947
![Page 948: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/948.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
948
![Page 949: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/949.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
949
![Page 950: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/950.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
950
![Page 951: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/951.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
951
![Page 952: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/952.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
952
![Page 953: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/953.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
953
![Page 954: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/954.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
954
![Page 955: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/955.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
955
![Page 956: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/956.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
956
![Page 957: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/957.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
957
![Page 958: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/958.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
958
![Page 959: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/959.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
959
![Page 960: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/960.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
960
![Page 961: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/961.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
961
![Page 962: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/962.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
962
![Page 963: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/963.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
963
![Page 964: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/964.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
964
![Page 965: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/965.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
965
![Page 966: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/966.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
966
![Page 967: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/967.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
967
![Page 968: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/968.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
968
![Page 969: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/969.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
969
![Page 970: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/970.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
970
![Page 971: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/971.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
971
![Page 972: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/972.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
972
![Page 973: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/973.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
973
![Page 974: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/974.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
974
![Page 975: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/975.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
975
![Page 976: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/976.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 539 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
976
![Page 977: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/977.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 539 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
977
![Page 978: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/978.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
978
![Page 979: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/979.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
979
![Page 980: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/980.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
539 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 521 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
980
![Page 981: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/981.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
981
![Page 982: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/982.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
982
![Page 983: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/983.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
983
![Page 984: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/984.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
984
![Page 985: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/985.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
985
![Page 986: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/986.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
986
![Page 987: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/987.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
987
![Page 988: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/988.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
988
![Page 989: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/989.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
989
![Page 990: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/990.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
990
![Page 991: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/991.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
991
![Page 992: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/992.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
992
![Page 993: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/993.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 533 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
993
![Page 994: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/994.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 533 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
994
![Page 995: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/995.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
995
![Page 996: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/996.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
996
![Page 997: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/997.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
533 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 515 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
997
![Page 998: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/998.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
998
![Page 999: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/999.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
999
![Page 1000: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1000.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1000
![Page 1001: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1001.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1001
![Page 1002: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1002.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1002
![Page 1003: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1003.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1003
![Page 1004: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1004.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1004
![Page 1005: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1005.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1005
![Page 1006: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1006.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1006
![Page 1007: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1007.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1007
![Page 1008: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1008.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1008
![Page 1009: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1009.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1009
![Page 1010: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1010.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 515 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1010
![Page 1011: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1011.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 515 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1011
![Page 1012: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1012.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1012
![Page 1013: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1013.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1013
![Page 1014: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1014.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
515 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 497 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1014
![Page 1015: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1015.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1015
![Page 1016: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1016.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1016
![Page 1017: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1017.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1017
![Page 1018: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1018.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1018
![Page 1019: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1019.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1019
![Page 1020: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1020.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1020
![Page 1021: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1021.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1021
![Page 1022: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1022.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1022
![Page 1023: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1023.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1023
![Page 1024: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1024.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1024
![Page 1025: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1025.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1025
![Page 1026: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1026.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1026
![Page 1027: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1027.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 553 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1027
![Page 1028: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1028.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 553 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1028
![Page 1029: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1029.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1029
![Page 1030: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1030.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1030
![Page 1031: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1031.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
553 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 535 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1031
![Page 1032: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1032.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1032
![Page 1033: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1033.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1033
![Page 1034: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1034.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1034
![Page 1035: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1035.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1035
![Page 1036: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1036.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1036
![Page 1037: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1037.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1037
![Page 1038: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1038.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1038
![Page 1039: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1039.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1039
![Page 1040: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1040.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1040
![Page 1041: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1041.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1041
![Page 1042: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1042.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1042
![Page 1043: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1043.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1043
![Page 1044: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1044.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 552 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1044
![Page 1045: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1045.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 552 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1045
![Page 1046: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1046.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1046
![Page 1047: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1047.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1047
![Page 1048: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1048.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
552 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 534 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1048
![Page 1049: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1049.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1049
![Page 1050: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1050.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1050
![Page 1051: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1051.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1051
![Page 1052: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1052.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1052
![Page 1053: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1053.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1053
![Page 1054: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1054.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1054
![Page 1055: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1055.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1055
![Page 1056: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1056.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1056
![Page 1057: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1057.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1057
![Page 1058: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1058.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1058
![Page 1059: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1059.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1059
![Page 1060: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1060.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1060
![Page 1061: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1061.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 534 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1061
![Page 1062: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1062.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 534 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1062
![Page 1063: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1063.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1063
![Page 1064: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1064.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1064
![Page 1065: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1065.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
534 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 516 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1065
![Page 1066: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1066.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1066
![Page 1067: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1067.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1067
![Page 1068: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1068.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1068
![Page 1069: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1069.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1069
![Page 1070: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1070.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1070
![Page 1071: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1071.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1071
![Page 1072: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1072.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1072
![Page 1073: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1073.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1073
![Page 1074: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1074.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1074
![Page 1075: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1075.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1075
![Page 1076: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1076.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1076
![Page 1077: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1077.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1077
![Page 1078: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1078.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 572 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1078
![Page 1079: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1079.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 572 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1079
![Page 1080: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1080.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1080
![Page 1081: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1081.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1081
![Page 1082: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1082.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
572 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 554 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1082
![Page 1083: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1083.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1083
![Page 1084: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1084.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1084
![Page 1085: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1085.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1085
![Page 1086: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1086.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1086
![Page 1087: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1087.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1087
![Page 1088: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1088.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1088
![Page 1089: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1089.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1089
![Page 1090: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1090.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1090
![Page 1091: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1091.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1091
![Page 1092: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1092.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1092
![Page 1093: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1093.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1093
![Page 1094: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1094.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1094
![Page 1095: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1095.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 487 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1095
![Page 1096: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1096.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 487 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1096
![Page 1097: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1097.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1097
![Page 1098: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1098.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1098
![Page 1099: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1099.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
487 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 469 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
1099
![Page 1100: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1100.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1100
![Page 1101: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1101.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1101
![Page 1102: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1102.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1102
![Page 1103: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1103.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1103
![Page 1104: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1104.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1104
![Page 1105: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1105.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1105
![Page 1106: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1106.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1106
![Page 1107: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1107.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1107
![Page 1108: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1108.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1108
![Page 1109: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1109.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1109
![Page 1110: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1110.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1110
![Page 1111: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1111.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1111
![Page 1112: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1112.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 469 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1112
![Page 1113: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1113.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 469 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1113
![Page 1114: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1114.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1114
![Page 1115: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1115.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1115
![Page 1116: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1116.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
469 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
1116
![Page 1117: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1117.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1117
![Page 1118: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1118.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1118
![Page 1119: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1119.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1119
![Page 1120: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1120.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1120
![Page 1121: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1121.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1121
![Page 1122: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1122.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1122
![Page 1123: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1123.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1123
![Page 1124: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1124.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1124
![Page 1125: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1125.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1125
![Page 1126: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1126.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1126
![Page 1127: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1127.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1127
![Page 1128: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1128.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1128
![Page 1129: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1129.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 507 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1129
![Page 1130: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1130.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 507 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1130
![Page 1131: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1131.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1131
![Page 1132: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1132.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1132
![Page 1133: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1133.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
507 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 489 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1133
![Page 1134: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1134.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1134
![Page 1135: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1135.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1135
![Page 1136: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1136.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1136
![Page 1137: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1137.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1137
![Page 1138: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1138.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1138
![Page 1139: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1139.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1139
![Page 1140: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1140.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1140
![Page 1141: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1141.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1141
![Page 1142: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1142.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1142
![Page 1143: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1143.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1143
![Page 1144: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1144.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1144
![Page 1145: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1145.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1145
![Page 1146: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1146.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1146
![Page 1147: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1147.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1147
![Page 1148: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1148.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1148
![Page 1149: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1149.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1149
![Page 1150: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1150.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1150
![Page 1151: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1151.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1151
![Page 1152: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1152.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1152
![Page 1153: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1153.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1153
![Page 1154: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1154.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1154
![Page 1155: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1155.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1155
![Page 1156: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1156.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1156
![Page 1157: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1157.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1157
![Page 1158: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1158.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1158
![Page 1159: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1159.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1159
![Page 1160: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1160.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1160
![Page 1161: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1161.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1161
![Page 1162: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1162.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1162
![Page 1163: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1163.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1163
![Page 1164: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1164.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 483 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1164
![Page 1165: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1165.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1165
![Page 1166: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1166.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1166
![Page 1167: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1167.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
483 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 465 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
1167
![Page 1168: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1168.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1168
![Page 1169: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1169.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1169
![Page 1170: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1170.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1170
![Page 1171: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1171.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1171
![Page 1172: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1172.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1172
![Page 1173: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1173.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1173
![Page 1174: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1174.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1174
![Page 1175: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1175.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1175
![Page 1176: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1176.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1176
![Page 1177: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1177.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1177
![Page 1178: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1178.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1178
![Page 1179: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1179.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1179
![Page 1180: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1180.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 521 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1180
![Page 1181: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1181.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 521 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1181
![Page 1182: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1182.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1182
![Page 1183: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1183.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1183
![Page 1184: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1184.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
521 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 503 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1184
![Page 1185: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1185.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1185
![Page 1186: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1186.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1186
![Page 1187: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1187.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1187
![Page 1188: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1188.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1188
![Page 1189: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1189.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1189
![Page 1190: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1190.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1190
![Page 1191: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1191.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1191
![Page 1192: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1192.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1192
![Page 1193: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1193.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1193
![Page 1194: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1194.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1194
![Page 1195: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1195.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1195
![Page 1196: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1196.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1196
![Page 1197: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1197.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 520 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1197
![Page 1198: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1198.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 520 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1198
![Page 1199: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1199.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1199
![Page 1200: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1200.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1200
![Page 1201: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1201.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
520 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1201
![Page 1202: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1202.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1202
![Page 1203: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1203.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1203
![Page 1204: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1204.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1204
![Page 1205: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1205.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1205
![Page 1206: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1206.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1206
![Page 1207: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1207.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1207
![Page 1208: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1208.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1208
![Page 1209: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1209.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1209
![Page 1210: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1210.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1210
![Page 1211: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1211.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1211
![Page 1212: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1212.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1212
![Page 1213: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1213.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1213
![Page 1214: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1214.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1214
![Page 1215: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1215.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1215
![Page 1216: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1216.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1216
![Page 1217: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1217.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1217
![Page 1218: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1218.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1218
![Page 1219: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1219.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1219
![Page 1220: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1220.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1220
![Page 1221: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1221.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1221
![Page 1222: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1222.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1222
![Page 1223: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1223.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1223
![Page 1224: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1224.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1224
![Page 1225: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1225.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1225
![Page 1226: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1226.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1226
![Page 1227: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1227.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1227
![Page 1228: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1228.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1228
![Page 1229: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1229.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1229
![Page 1230: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1230.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1230
![Page 1231: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1231.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 540 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1231
![Page 1232: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1232.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 540 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1232
![Page 1233: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1233.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1233
![Page 1234: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1234.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1234
![Page 1235: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1235.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
540 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 522 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1235
![Page 1236: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1236.jpg)
Previous decisions: C C B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1236
![Page 1237: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1237.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1237
![Page 1238: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1238.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1238
![Page 1239: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1239.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1239
![Page 1240: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1240.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1240
![Page 1241: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1241.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1241
![Page 1242: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1242.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1242
![Page 1243: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1243.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1243
![Page 1244: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1244.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1244
![Page 1245: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1245.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1245
![Page 1246: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1246.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1246
![Page 1247: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1247.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1247
![Page 1248: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1248.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1248
![Page 1249: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1249.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1249
![Page 1250: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1250.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1250
![Page 1251: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1251.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1251
![Page 1252: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1252.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1252
![Page 1253: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1253.jpg)
Previous decisions: A A C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1253
![Page 1254: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1254.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1254
![Page 1255: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1255.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1255
![Page 1256: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1256.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1256
![Page 1257: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1257.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1257
![Page 1258: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1258.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1258
![Page 1259: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1259.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1259
![Page 1260: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1260.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1260
![Page 1261: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1261.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1261
![Page 1262: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1262.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1262
![Page 1263: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1263.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1263
![Page 1264: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1264.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1264
![Page 1265: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1265.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1265
![Page 1266: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1266.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 484 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1266
![Page 1267: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1267.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1267
![Page 1268: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1268.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1268
![Page 1269: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1269.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
484 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 466 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
1269
![Page 1270: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1270.jpg)
Previous decisions: B A C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1270
![Page 1271: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1271.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1271
![Page 1272: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1272.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1272
![Page 1273: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1273.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1273
![Page 1274: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1274.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1274
![Page 1275: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1275.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1275
![Page 1276: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1276.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1276
![Page 1277: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1277.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1277
![Page 1278: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1278.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1278
![Page 1279: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1279.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1279
![Page 1280: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1280.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1280
![Page 1281: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1281.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1281
![Page 1282: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1282.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 522 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1282
![Page 1283: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1283.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 522 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1283
![Page 1284: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1284.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1284
![Page 1285: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1285.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1285
![Page 1286: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1286.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
522 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 504 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1286
![Page 1287: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1287.jpg)
Previous decisions: C A C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1287
![Page 1288: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1288.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1288
![Page 1289: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1289.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1289
![Page 1290: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1290.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1290
![Page 1291: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1291.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1291
![Page 1292: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1292.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1292
![Page 1293: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1293.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1293
![Page 1294: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1294.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1294
![Page 1295: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1295.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1295
![Page 1296: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1296.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1296
![Page 1297: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1297.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1297
![Page 1298: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1298.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1298
![Page 1299: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1299.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 516 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1299
![Page 1300: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1300.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 516 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1300
![Page 1301: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1301.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1301
![Page 1302: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1302.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1302
![Page 1303: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1303.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
516 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1303
![Page 1304: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1304.jpg)
Previous decisions: A B C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1304
![Page 1305: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1305.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1305
![Page 1306: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1306.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1306
![Page 1307: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1307.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1307
![Page 1308: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1308.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1308
![Page 1309: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1309.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1309
![Page 1310: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1310.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1310
![Page 1311: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1311.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1311
![Page 1312: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1312.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1312
![Page 1313: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1313.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1313
![Page 1314: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1314.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1314
![Page 1315: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1315.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1315
![Page 1316: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1316.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1316
![Page 1317: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1317.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 498 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1317
![Page 1318: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1318.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1318
![Page 1319: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1319.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1319
![Page 1320: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1320.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
498 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
1320
![Page 1321: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1321.jpg)
Previous decisions: B B C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1321
![Page 1322: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1322.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1322
![Page 1323: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1323.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1323
![Page 1324: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1324.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1324
![Page 1325: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1325.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1325
![Page 1326: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1326.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1326
![Page 1327: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1327.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1327
![Page 1328: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1328.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1328
![Page 1329: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1329.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1329
![Page 1330: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1330.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1330
![Page 1331: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1331.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1331
![Page 1332: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1332.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1332
![Page 1333: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1333.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 536 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1333
![Page 1334: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1334.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 536 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1334
![Page 1335: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1335.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1335
![Page 1336: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1336.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1336
![Page 1337: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1337.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
536 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 518 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1337
![Page 1338: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1338.jpg)
Previous decisions: C B C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1338
![Page 1339: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1339.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1339
![Page 1340: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1340.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1340
![Page 1341: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1341.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1341
![Page 1342: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1342.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1342
![Page 1343: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1343.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1343
![Page 1344: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1344.jpg)
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1344
![Page 1345: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1345.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1345
![Page 1346: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1346.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1346
![Page 1347: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1347.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1347
![Page 1348: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1348.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1348
![Page 1349: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1349.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1349
![Page 1350: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1350.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 535 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1350
![Page 1351: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1351.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 535 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1351
![Page 1352: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1352.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1352
![Page 1353: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1353.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1353
![Page 1354: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1354.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
535 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1354
![Page 1355: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1355.jpg)
Previous decisions: A C C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1355
![Page 1356: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1356.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1356
![Page 1357: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1357.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1357
![Page 1358: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1358.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1358
![Page 1359: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1359.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1359
![Page 1360: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1360.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1360
![Page 1361: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1361.jpg)
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1361
![Page 1362: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1362.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1362
![Page 1363: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1363.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1363
![Page 1364: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1364.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1364
![Page 1365: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1365.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1365
![Page 1366: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1366.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1366
![Page 1367: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1367.jpg)
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1367
![Page 1368: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1368.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 517 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1368
![Page 1369: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1369.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1369
![Page 1370: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1370.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1370
![Page 1371: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1371.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
517 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 499 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1371
![Page 1372: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1372.jpg)
Previous decisions: B C C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1372
![Page 1373: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1373.jpg)
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1373
![Page 1374: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1374.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1374
![Page 1375: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1375.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1375
![Page 1376: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1376.jpg)
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1376
![Page 1377: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1377.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1377
![Page 1378: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1378.jpg)
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1378
![Page 1379: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1379.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1379
![Page 1380: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1380.jpg)
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1380
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Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1381
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Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1382
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1383
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June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 555 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1384
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Previous decisions: C C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 555 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1385
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Previous decisions: C C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1386
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July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1387
![Page 1388: IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062510/54959719ac7959042e8b4eb7/html5/thumbnails/1388.jpg)
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
555 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 537 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1388
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Previous decisions: C C C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1389