irrational career decision making …and what we might do about it dave redekopp, june, 2014
TRANSCRIPT
IRRATIONAL CAREER DECISION MAKING…and what we might do about it
Dave Redekopp, June, 2014
Outline
Why irrationality, behavioural economics and positive psychology?
What are the key ideas? What does the field of b.e. have to offer? There
seem to be more of them than us doing research – let’s make use of it
What are the implications of these ideas for career development? E.g., job uncertainty, self-evaluation, financial
stability, decision-making, workplace behaviour, service evaluation
What might we do about these implications?
Why?
We know what’s right, good and true! We tell clients what’s right, good and true Clients do not do what we say We do not do what we say What we say may be right, good and true, but
it’s unlikely to ever happen
“The gap between planning and doing is an example of a psychological bias, a systematic deviation from rationale behavior” (Kirsten Rohde, 2014)
Why?
Let’s figure out what might actually happen Consider “harm reduction” rather than
“crime prevention” strategies Engaging in counter-productive behaviour
is not an “accident” – much of it is largely hard-wired
Why?
The big trends in conceptions of behaviour in the last two decades… Positive Psychology Happiness Behavioural Economics Mindfulness
Positive Psychology
Key figure – Martin Seligman
Early proponent – Abraham Maslow
Happiness
Key figure – Dan Gilbert
Behavioural Economics
Key figures Daniel Kahneman Dan Ariely (Predictable Irrationality) Thaler & Sunstein (Nudge) Gerd Gigerenzer (Risk Literacy)
Core Issues in Career Development Anxiety Beliefs Decision-Making / Choice Risk Management Values Preferences Non-Cognitive Skills (Self-Management)
Core Concepts, Biases, Effects, Heuristics & Cognitive Illusions
Behavioural Economics
First, thanks to…
Core Concepts
Study of judgment & decision-making System 1: fast, intuitive, emotional,
“automatic” Considered mostly a nuisance in career
theory and practice System 2: slow, rational, deliberate,
“reflective” What we strive for in career development
theory and practice
Examples
Group A: Is the average income of a welder in more
or less than US$50,000? What is your best guess about the average
income of a welder?
Examples (cont’d)
Group B: Is the average income of a welder in more
or less than US$30,000? What is your best guess about the average
income of a welder?
Example Intervention: “Clocky”
Reference Dependence/Anchoring/Priming
We evaluate not on absolutes but in terms of what we already have or what we expect How do we change the salary anchors of
the recently unemployed (or do we)? How do we shift focus on one anchor (e.g.,
salary) to another anchor (e.g., meaningfulness) (or do we)?
The Endowment Effect/Loss Aversion We value it because we own it Our starting point shapes the outcomes
in any trade We own our jobs
Lateral moves are therefore losses! Losses are weighted more heavily than
gains Example: Losing $10 has more emotional
impact than winning $10
Hyperbolic Discounting
What we want depends on when you ask us A cookie today or two tomorrow? A cookie 365 days from now or two 366
days from now? “Save More Tomorrow” plan
“Future” raises go to retirement investments Need to opt out
Sunk Cost Bias
Past costs (sunk costs) are irrelevant to success but have an enormous impact on decisions “No matter how far down the wrong road
you’ve gone, turn back.” Turkish proverb Past decisions and investments (e.g.,
education) lock us in “Kristen Cumming Effect”
Demo auction
Framing (connects to Loss Aversion & Anchoring)
Losses are not the mirror image of gains You can play for 10 more minutes before
bed vs. Bed in 10 minutes; you can play until then
The odds of survival 1 month after surgery are 90% vs.
Mortality within 1 month of surgery is 10%
90% fat-free vs. 10% fat
Framing (cont’d)
We plan to prevent 250,000 fatalities and serious injuries due to traffic collisions in the next decade
We plan to kill or seriously injure 250,000 Australians in the next decade
We will reduce fatalities and serious injuries due to traffic collisions by 50% over the next decade
Confirmation Bias / Halo Effect People seek data likely to confirm their hypotheses
How do we jar clients out of their pre-conceived notions of: Occupations? Work world? Personal agency? (…or should we?)
How do we help clients make sure their first hours/days (in a class or at work) are exceptional (or should we?)
How do we help employers make sure the first hours/days are exceptional for the employee (or should we?)
Base Rate Neglect
People make mistakes in judging probabilities
“Sector X will grow by 99% next year!”
Overconfidence/ The Planning Fallacy
“I can be anything I want” “…plans and forecasts that
Are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios
Could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases” (p. 250)
Need an “outside view”, not WYSIATI Pre-mortems can be helpful
Crowding-Out
Extrinsic motivators ‘crowd-out’ intrinsic motivation
Priming
Embedding sub-conscious clues to change behaviour How do clients enter your program/service? What language do you use to introduce
your program/service?
The Focusing Illusion / Focalism “Nothing in life is as important as you
think it is when you are thinking about it.” (p. 402)
Who has greater life satisfaction: Californians or Ohioians?
How much pleasure do you get from your car? When do you think about your car?
Miswanting: bad choices arising from errors of affective forecasting
Remembering Self
There’s a big difference between the “experiencing self” and the “remembering self”
Broaden-and-Build Theory
Frederickson: Positive affect increases ability to see
possibilities Negative affect reduces perceptual field
Practice, Programming & Profession How could you change your marketing/
informational materials to prime clients for resourcefulness?
What could you change in your services to make “wise” choices built-in (i.e., having the client opt-out of “wise” choices)?
How can you change your evaluation practices to produce evidence that will nurture the success of the next group of clients?
Thank You!
For comments or questions, contact:Dave Redekopp
www.liferole.com