Contact:

Robert Mack, CEO Burson-Marsteller Brussels David O’Leary, Director, Burson-Marsteller Brussels

37 Square de Meeûs, 1000 Brussels • Tel +32 2 743 66 11 • Fax +32 2 733 66 11 • bmbrussels@bm.com • www.bmbrussels.eu Nigel Heneghan, Manager Director, Heneghan|PR

54 Pembroke Road, Dublin 4, Ireland • Tel +353 1 660 7395 • Fax +353 1 660 7588 • info@hpr.ie • www.hpr.ie

The Lisbon Treaty

Veto removed in 61 areas – more QMV

Co-decision to be default procedure and to be used in agriculture and trade decisions

More power for EP over the EU budget

New permanent President of the European Council

New ‘double-hatted’ foreign affairs representative (also sitting in the Commission as a vice-president)

Greater role for national parliaments

IIrreellaanndd vvootteess yyeess:: tthhee bbeeggiinnnniinngg ooff tthhee eenndd ffoorr EEuurrooppee’’ss ccoonnssttiittuuttiioonnaall ssaaggaa??

OOccttoobbeerr 22000099

Just over 15 months after plunging the EU into a new crisis with its rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, Irish voters have approved the text in a second referendum. In a poll held on 2 October, 67.1% of voters supported Irish ratification of the Treaty - a swing from ‘no’ to ‘yes’ of 20 per cent based on the first referendum, held in June 2008. 1.81m of Ireland’s 3.08m registered voters (59%) cast a ballot, an increase of six percentage points on the turnout for last year’s poll.

The campaign

It is generally thought that the ‘yes’ campaign was much better organised and motivated than in June 2008. A public-awareness campaign was initiated at an early stage, and there was a concerted effort to demonstrate that the Irish electorate’s concerns – over potentially losing a commissioner, social issues (notably abortion) and Irish neutrality – had been addressed through the ‘guarantees’ given by EU leaders at a summit in December 2008.

The campaign had high-profile support, including from Pat Cox, a former television presenter who became President of the European Parliament, as well as from actors, singers, sportsmen and entrepreneurs, notably Michael O’Leary, the boss of budget airline Ryanair. A poster published by the airline called the treaty’s opponents – Sinn Féin, some Greens, and Declan Ganley of Libertas – ‘losers’, highlighting recent election defeats.

Indeed, Mr Ganley initially exiled himself from the ‘no’ campaign following his crushing defeat in June’s European Parliament elections – thereby ending the possibility of a repeat performance of 2008, when he was widely thought to have masterminded the success of the ‘no’ campaign. His late return to the campaign, two weeks before the vote, was to no avail.

This time, the main opposition came from a group of smaller parties (the biggest of which was Sinn Féin), independent politicians and Cóir, a conservative group that the foreign minister, Michael Martin, accused of being a front group for an anti-abortion lobby.

European impact

Ireland’s approval of the text marks a significant step forward in ending a period of constitutional reflection – and occasionally crisis – that has endured since 2001. The Lisbon text – which repackaged and replaced the failed constitutional treaty – had been agreed in October 2007, and signed in December that year. However, ratification has been a long journey – with the most painful episode for pro-Europeans being the Irish ‘no’ vote in June 2008.

However, even with Ireland’s ratification resolved (as well as Germany’s, in late September), there are still two hurdles to cross.

Firstly, the President of Poland, Lech Kaczynzski, must approve his country’s ratification. This should not be overly problematic, as his agreement was contingent on an Irish ‘yes’ vote (a gesture of solidarity with the Irish people, according to Mr Kaczynski). The head of foreign affairs in Mr Kaczynski’s chancellery said shortly after the Irish referendum that the President would sign the ratification documents “without delay” – although he did not give a timeframe. There is also a question mark over the division of powers over foreign policy between the offices of president and prime minister – with Mr Kaczynski having previously said that his signature would happen only when a bill to split these powers had been agreed (no such legislation has been drafted yet).

The second hurdle is more dangerous for the EU – and risks opening the door to a potentially fatal further delay. Despite approval of the treaty by the two houses of parliament in the Czech Republic, a second legal challenge by 17 senators – at the

BBUURRSSOONN--MMAARRSSTTEELLLLEERR IINNSSIIGGHHTT

IIrriisshh rreeffeerreenndduumm oonn tthhee LLiissbboonn TTrreeaattyy

instigation of the country’s Eurosceptic president, Vaclav Klaus – risks delaying the country’s ratification for several months. It remains to be seen whether the Czech constitutional court will reject the challenge on the basis that it has already addressed a similar complaint about the impact of Lisbon on the Czech Republic’s sovereignty. However, if the court does consider that there is cause to investigate the challenge, then ratification could be delayed for several months. The court has said that it will decide as swiftly as possible on the legitimacy of the complaint, but it is likely to take between three and six months.

Meanwhile, the political heat is rising: after the announcement of the Irish result, the Czech prime minister, Jan Fischer, said that he believed the treaty would be ratified this year. There is now pressure on Mr Klaus from the governing Civic Democrats party (ODS – which was founded by Mr Klaus) as well as the opposition Social Democrats. Other EU leaders – fearful of being seen to interfere in Czech affairs – will be keen not to put undue pressure on Mr Klaus, while privately encouraging swift ratification.

Without a speedy conclusion to the process, a new threat to the treaty emerges. With a general election due to be held in the United Kingdom by June 2010, and the opposition Conservatives (who have a handsome lead in the opinion polls) promising a referendum in the UK if the treaty has not entered into force, there is still scope for Lisbon to be derailed. The Conservative leader, David Cameron, has said that his policy of promising a referendum will not change while the treaty is still in the course of ratification, adding that to change his policy may prejudice the decisions of the Czechs and Poles (although it is known that Mr Cameron has written privately to Mr Klaus in recent weeks).

Should the Czech ratification be delayed beyond June, the treaty is almost certainly dead: UK voters would be highly likely to scrap the treaty, sending the EU into another constitutional crisis. However, even if the treaty has been ratified, Conservative Eurosceptics are likely to maintain the pressure on Mr Cameron to hold a retrospective vote on Lisbon or to fight for a repatriation of powers should he become prime minister. A protracted fight with Brussels could be a major hangover for Mr Cameron from any election victory and dominate his early months in office.

However, for the moment, all eyes are on Poland and – more so – the Czech Republic. The decision of the Prague court – and its timing – is likely to have a major impact on the future direction of the Union. This time, there really is no ‘Plan B’.

Impact on Ireland

Approval of the treaty is a long-awaited piece of good news for Ireland’s beleaguered prime minister, Brian Cowen. The failure of the first Lisbon vote was a crushing blow for Mr Cowen and for Ireland’s reputation in Europe. This victory will go some way to restoring Ireland’s position with other member states – however, it seems unlikely to improve Mr Cowen’s domestic fortunes.

His Fianna Fáil party trail dismally in the polls and the prime minister’s personal disapproval ratings top 75%. However, the next general election is not due until 2012 – and Mr Cowen will hope that an upturn in Ireland’s economy will help to restore faith in him and his party, which has been in power since 1997.

Post-referendum, the focus has quickly returned to the troubled economy and the contentious issue of the public sector pay bill, meaning that the reprieve offered by a successful referendum result is likely to be short-lived for the government.

EU positions

The Irish ‘yes’ vote has led to fresh speculation about the identities of those that would fill the two new positions under the Lisbon Treaty – President of the European Council and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Discussions on these positions are due to take place at a special European Council meeting on 29-30 October – although formal decisions may have to wait until the situation in Poland and the Czech Republic becomes clearer.

Tony Blair, the previous British prime minister, is already thought to be sounding out support for a possible candidacy for the position of President of the European Council. His former chief of staff, Jonathan Powell, is visiting the Czech Republic this week to canvas support (and, no doubt, to encourage speedy ratification of the treaty). The Dutch prime minister, Jan Peter Balkenende, is also thought to be privately interested in the role.

The foreign policy position – arguably a more influential and time-consuming role – may go to Carl Bildt, the current Swedish foreign minister, with Chris Patten, a former Commission for External Affairs, also thought to be interested. Olli Rehn, the current holder of the external affairs portfolio at the Commission, is another contender, as is compatriot and former Finnish prime minister Paavo Lipponen.

As for the Commission, nominations may be made at the end of October under the Nice rules (whereby there are fewer commissioners than member states). It seems likely that 26 commissioners would be nominated, with the nominee for the foreign affairs role having to wait until Lisbon is in force before gaining the second ‘hat’, the role of commissioner. Nominated commissioners are likely to face hearings in the European Parliament towards the end of this year.

The work of Pat Cox in achieving a ‘yes’ vote may help him to become Ireland’s next commissioner, replacing Charlie McCreevy. Former prime minister John Bruton, who is currently the EU Ambassador in Washington, is another frontrunner. In Germany, there are rumours that Elmar Brok MEP may take Germany’s position in the Commission. He is thought to have the support of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, although Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s interior minister, is another strong contender. However, the role will be a big factor in ongoing coalition talks in Germany, making the decision far from clear-cut at this stage.