iri - 2011 dec 19_ survey of eastern libya public opinion, october 12-25, 2011

8/3/2019 IRI - 2011 Dec 19_ Survey of Eastern Libya Public Opinion, October 12-25, 2011

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Survey of Public Opinion in

Eastern LibyaOctober 12 25, 2011

This survey was conducted by Shabakat Corporation - www.shabakat.se


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Survey Specifications

Conducted by Shabakat Corporation on behalf of the International Republican Institute. CaerusAssociates LLC contributed statistical analysis.

Fieldwork was carried out October 12 25, 2011.

The survey includes six out of Libyas 22 districts: Al-Butnan, Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar, Al-Marj, Al-Wahat,Benghazi and Darnah. These six districts make up Libyas eastern region.

The sample was 1,428 adult Libyan citizens (age 18+).

Overall margin of error = +/- 2.6 percent.

Interview data was collected using in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professionalinterviewers.

Women interviewed women, and men interviewed men.

Households were randomly selected using a multi-stage stratification proportionate to populationsample distribution across the survey universe of six districts.

Levels of stratification: (1) district (all six districts were sampled), (2) urban/semi-rural/rural, (3)municipality, (4) cluster, (5) household, (6) individual

Only one individual was interviewed per randomly selected household. The Kish grid method wasused to select respondents within the household.

The right-hand method was used to select every third household within each randomly selectedcluster.

The response rate was 92.4 percent. The numerator for this figure is the number of surveys that wererun to completion. The denominator is all respondents who were at home and met the qualifyingcriteria: aged 18 or older, residing at the address sampled, and not an National Transitional Council(NTC) official, a local-council official, a member of the military or police, a member of the media, or amember of any other security agency.

Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.


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GENERAL

Survey questions


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Now thinking about how things are going in Libya as awhole, how would you say things are going in our

country overall these days? Are they going in the right

direction or the wrong direction?

Right

direction

84%

Wrong

direction

6%

Refused 2%

Don't know

8%


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GOVERNMENT & POLITICS

Survey questions


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Do you support the NTC?

84%

12%

1%

1%

0%

1%

1%

Strongly support

Moderately support

No opinion

Moderately

unsupportive

Strongly unsupportive

Refused

Don't know


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36%

29%

22%

8%

2%

2%

2%

0%

Mustafa Abdul Jalil*

No specific individuals or groups / All NTC

members

Mahmoud Jibril**

Mustafa Abdul Jalil and Mahmoud Jibril

Don't know

Refused

Other

None

Are there specific individuals or groups yousupport within the NTC?

(open-ended question)

*Mustafa Abdul Jalil is chairman of the NTC and therefore Libyas interim head of state.

**Mahmoud Jibril was chairman of the NTCs executive board and therefore Libyas interim prime minister. He hadpromised to resign after Libyas had been liberated, and on October 23, 2011 (during the course of this survey), he did so.


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How likely is the NTC to address the issues of Libya?

63%

31%

3%

1%

0%

3%

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Not very likely

Not at all likely

Refused

Don't know


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What should be the NTC top priority?(closed-ended question)

33%

22%

19%

8%

4%

14%

0%

0%

Weapons collection

Medical treatment

Provision of security

Organizing a proper government

Ensuring distribution of wealth

Other

Refused

Don't know


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What should be the main priority of the NTC?(open-ended question)

19%

15%

13%

13%

12%6%

4%

3%

3%

3%1%

1%

1%

0%

6%

Establish new government

Care for the injured and for families of martyrs

Security provision

Don't know

Weapons collectionWealth distribution

Infrastructure

Constitution

Employment

RefusedTake care of youth

Tribes

Ex-Gaddafi officials

Misinformed population

Other


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How important is it for the government to...?

Veryimportant

Somewhatimportant

IndifferentSomewhat

unimportantVery

unimportantRefused /

Don't know

Provide food and housingfor poor people in society 97% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Play central role in the

economy and businesssector

72% 16% 2% 2% 4% 3%

Have laws that governsocial issues, such asdivorce and marriage

67% 15% 3% 2% 10% 2%

Allow the press and mediathe freedom to publishanything they want

56% 27% 3% 5% 5% 3%

Have laws that give allreligious and tribal groupsequal rights

56% 15% 6% 5% 12% 6%

Have laws that governreligious issues, such aswhere you can worship

37% 13% 5% 7% 27% 9%


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67%

45%

42%

14%

17%

31%

31%

28%

14%

21%

22%

54%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Head of household

NTC member

Religious leader

Tribal leader

Strong influence

Some influence

No influence

Refused

Don't know

How much influence does this individuals opinionhave on you and your opinions about current events

and politics?

1% 3%

1% 3%

1% 3%

1% 2%


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55%

40%

36%

28%

13%

26%

31%

29%

34%

24%

9%

13%

11%

16%

16%

8%

13%

19%

19%

42%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

NTC

Volunteers

Local brigades

Local police

Local tribe

A great dealA fair amount

Only a little

Not at all

Refused

Don't know

How much do you trust _________ to protect yourneighborhood?

1% 4%

3%

1% 4%

2%

1%


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How do you feel about the following statements?

Stronglyagree

Somewhatagree

No opinionSomewhat

disagreeStronglydisagree

Refused /Don'tknow

People should beprohibited from

offending other religions

86% 8% 1% 1% 2% 1%

Religion should be part ofpublic life (e.g. publiceducation)

84% 11% 1% 1% 2% 1%

Religion should be part ofgovernment 68% 17% 2% 4% 7% 1%

Religion should be part aprivate/personal issue 44% 13% 3% 8% 28% 3%


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Would you approve or disapprove of the futuregovernment of Libya being secular?

Approve 14%

Disapprove

69%

Refused 2%Don't know

16%


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When should national elections occur in Libya?

44%

34%

8%

8%

5%

1%

Within six months

Less than a year

More than one year

Between one and two years

Don't know

Refused


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What system of government would you like to havein Libya?

43%

35%

7%

7%

6%

2%

A democratic system with a strong

president

A democratic system with a strong

parliament

A federalist system that would allow

for local autonomy

A constitutional monarchy

Don't know

Refused


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How do you feel about the following individuals andgroups?

Stronglypositive

Somewhatpositive

No feelingSomewhatnegative

Stronglynegative

Refused /Don't know

Mustafa Abdul Jalil 87% 5% 1% 1% 0% 6%

February 17th Youth 76% 20% 2% 1% 1% 0%

Mahmoud Jibril 70% 17% 3% 3% 2% 6%

NTC military 67% 24% 3% 1% 1% 3%

Local volunteers 59% 31% 3% 2% 3% 3%

NTC members 58% 31% 4% 2% 1% 3%

Local brigades 52% 34% 4% 3% 2% 4%

NTC police 46% 37% 6% 3% 3% 6%

Obeidi tribe 42% 34% 8% 5% 4% 8%

Amazigh tribe 37% 29% 6% 3% 7% 18%

Ali Al-Issawi 24% 20% 10% 5% 6% 35%

Jihadists 20% 16% 13% 6% 18% 27%

Tribal leaders 16% 39% 19% 9% 13% 4%

Ahmed Hussein Al-Darrat 15% 16% 10% 2% 2% 54%

Jalal Al-Digheily 14% 18% 10% 3% 5% 49%

Abdullah Shamia 14% 14% 7% 2% 2% 61%

Salafists 11% 17% 18% 10% 15% 29%

Muslim Brotherhood 9% 22% 17% 9% 16% 26%

Tebus tribe 8% 16% 13% 7% 13% 43%

Maghara tribe 6% 24% 14% 14% 20% 22%

Touareg tribe 4% 15% 14% 10% 21% 36%

Ghaddafa tribe 2% 21% 10% 20% 34% 13%

Genturyah tribe 2% 2% 4% 6% 81% 5%


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ECONOMY & EVERYDAY LIFE

Survey questions


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How would you describe the current economicsituation in Libya?

16%

59%

18%

6%

0%

1%

Very good

Somewhat good

Somewhat bad

Very bad

Refused

Don't know


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Over the last year, how has your householdsfinancial situation changed?

12%

36%

25%

17%

8%

2%

1%

Gotten much better

Gotten somewhat better

Stayed the same

Gotten somewhat worse

Gotten much worse

Refused

Don't know


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In the next year, how do you expect yourhouseholds financial situation to change?

72%

20%

2%

1%

0%

0%

4%

Get much better

Get somewhat better

Stay the same

Get somewhat worse

Get much worse

Refused

Don't know


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How has the situation changed over the past yearwith regard to...?

Gottenmuch better

Gottensomewhat

better

Stayed thesame

Gottensomewhat

worse

Gottenmuchworse

Refused /Don'tknow

Development ofindependent media

48% 31% 7% 3% 10% 1%

Development ofindependent civil society

30% 33% 17% 2% 10% 8%

Access to electricity 19% 30% 42% 6% 3% 0%

Security 16% 34% 18% 20% 11% 2%

Access to water 15% 20% 54% 6% 5% 0%

Living standards 9% 35% 33% 14% 9% 1%

Education 5% 18% 55% 8% 13% 1%Health care 4% 17% 37% 19% 22% 1%

Unemployment 2% 12% 55% 11% 17% 3%

Infrastructure 2% 4% 50% 13% 29% 1%


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In your opinion, is it yourright to have a firearm in

your home?

To your knowledge, is therea firearm in your home?

Yes 20%

No 78%

Refused 1% Don't know

1%Yes 12%

No 87%

Refused

1%


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If you could pick only one of the following, whichwould you first consider yourself to be?

48%

41%

9%

1%

1%

0%

0%

Muslim

Libyan

Arab

Member of a tribe

African

Refused

Don't know


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FOREIGN RELATIONS

Survey questions


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What is your opinion of...?

Highlyfavorable

Somewhatfavorable

No opinionSomewhat

unfavorableHighly

unfavorable

Refused /Don'tknow

Qatar 94% 5% 0% 0% 1% 1%

France 84% 11% 2% 1% 1% 1%

the United ArabEmirates

76% 18% 1% 1% 2% 2%

NATO 68% 21% 2% 3% 5% 1%Tunisia 60% 34% 2% 1% 2% 1%

the United States 60% 30% 2% 2% 4% 2%

the United Nations 60% 31% 3% 2% 2% 2%

the European Union 53% 33% 4% 3% 2% 5%

the Arab League 51% 33% 4% 4% 6% 2%

Egypt 45% 41% 4% 5% 4% 1%

the African Union 7% 9% 6% 12% 62% 3%


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Which country does Libyahave the best relations with?

69%

21%

2%

1%

1%

4%

0%

1%

Qatar

France

USAUK

Italy

Other

Refused

Don't know

68%

25%

3%

1%

0%

3%

0%

1%

Qatar

France

USAUK

Italy

Other

Refused

Don't know

Which country has mostsupported the NTC?


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Which country do you trustmost in its relations with

Libya?

Which country has been theleast supportive of Libya?

71%

13%

4%1%

1%

5%

1%

4%

Qatar

France

USAUK

Italy

Other

Refused

Don't know

68%

7%

5%2%

2%

13%

1%

3%

Algeria

China

Niger

Chad

India

Other

Refused

Don't know


30/35

Do you support international development to assist

Libya with its transition to democracy?

70%

18%

3%

6%

0%

3%

Highly supportive

Somewhat supportive

Somewhat unsupportive

Highly unsupportive

Refused

Don't know


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PROFILE OF SURVEY SAMPLE

Survey questions


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Sampled Municipalities

Al-Butnn(District 1)

Darnah(District 2)

Al-Jabal

Al-Akhdar(District 3)

Tubruq (semi-urban)Musid (rural)Kambt (rural)

Darnah (semi-urban)Al-Qubbah (rural)Al-Tamm (rural)

MudriyatMatrbah (rural)

Al-Bayd (semi-urban)Shahht (rural)Zwiyat Bishrah

(rural)Al-Labraq (rural)Fidyah (rural)

Al-Marj(District 4)

Benghazi(District 5)

Al-Wht(District 6)

Al-Marj (semi-urban)Al-Abyr (rural)Sd Khalfah (rural)Talmthah (rural)Battah (rural)

Jardas al-Abd (rural)

Benghazi (urban)Sulq (rural)Al-Nawwaqyah (rural)

Ajdbiyah (semi-urban)Jl (rural)Awjilah (rural)Al-Zuwaytnah (rural)


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Respondent age*

18-25

38%

26-35

32%

36-50

23%

Over 50

7%

Respondent gender*

*This is after all results were post-weighted by gender. The gender breakdown of the actual respondent sample was 69percent male, 31 percent female. All figures in this presentation reflect post-weighting by gender.

Male

51%

Female

49%


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Monthly household income(as stated by recipient)

5%

7%

8%

41%

28%

7%

4%

2%

Refused

Don't know

LD 200 or less

LD 201 - LD 500

LD 501 - LD 1,000

LD 1,001 - LD 1,500

LD 1,501 - LD 2,500

More than LD 2,500


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Which answer best describes your currenteconomic condition?

12%

16%

53%

7%

5%

8%

I am able to afford things like new clothes and

eating out and also support other members of my

family who are not able to do these things

I am able to afford things like new clothes and

eating at restaurants but not often

I have enough means for survival, but I do not

have enough money for extra things

I have trouble feeding myself and my family, and

buying even the most essential things for survival

Refused

Don't know

iri - 2011 dec 19_ survey of eastern libya public opinion, october 12-25, 2011

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