iraq’s petroleum sector development- opportunities & challenges
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Iraq’s Petroleum Sector Development- Opportunities & Challenges. Presentation delivered before The 4 th Iraqi Petroleum Conference Iraq: Exploration, Field Development & Operation Challenges Organized by Target Exploration 13 & 14 September 2012, The Imperial College, London, UK. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Presentation delivered before The 4th Iraqi Petroleum Conference
Iraq: Exploration, Field Development & Operation Challenges Organized by
Target Exploration13 &14 September 2012,
The Imperial College, London, UK
Iraq’s Petroleum Sector Development- Opportunities & Challenges
By Ahmed Mousa Jiyad
Iraq/ Development Consultancy and ResearchNorway
Phone: +46 5659 5699 Email: [email protected]
Augments Petroleum Proven Reserves
Enhance Production Capacities
Expand Export Capacities and Diversify Export Outlets
Increase Gas Utilization & Reduce Gas Flaring
Develop Refining Capacities
FDI-IOCs Involvement
NES, NDP and Managing the Plenty
Main Determinants Facing Iraq’s Petroleum Strategy
The Issues
1- Augments Petroleum Proven Reserves
Current Proven Reserves: 143 bbl; 66 oilfields;
65%
28%
7%
Oil in Place Reserves Remaining Proven Reserves Accumulated prod., at 1/1/2010
Enhance The
Recovery Factor
Deep Drilling
MoO Exploration
program
The 4th/5th Bid
Rounds
2- Enhance Production Capacities
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Rumaila WQ1 Zubair Missan
Prod
uctio
n-m
bd
Re P
PPP
DPP
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
WQ2
Majnoon
Halfaya
Garraf
Badra
Qaiyara
Najma
AlAhdab
Prod
uctio
n (m
bd) DP
PPP (7, 9, 10, 13 Ys)
DPP
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
TP BFTP GFTP
Prod
uctio
n-M
bd
PROVEN RESERVES, TOTAL & INCREMENTAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY
14 Oilfields67.3 bbls (58.5%) 1.7 mbd-CPC
11.7 mbd-TPC
10.0 mbd-IPCMoO plan
(mbd): 2011 –
2.752012 – 3.32013 – 4.52014 – 6.5
Gas Reserves & Availability
Proven gas reserves:112 tcf- trillion cubic feet, 71% associated gas, 20% non-associated and 9% dome gas. Geographically: 30% in the north and 70% in the south/middle Iraq.
Probable reserves are estimated to be 275-300 tcf. Associated Gas: 1mbd oil gives 0.800Bcfd-A 12.5 mbd oil gives 10.0 Bcfd
Gas Fields Bid Round: Akkas, Mansuriya and Siba. Total 7.4 tcf proven Reserves. Production capacity of 820 mcfd; PPPs: 9-13; P/R ratio:~25 years.
Gas Flaring: currently Iraq is producing 1.5 bcfd, of which some 700 mcfd flares.
Oilfield
N/IOCsConsortium (75%)
St/Pr(25%)
CP-mbd(BLP)
PPTs-mbd/ Y
R F $/b)
S.B$m
IPT-FCP000bd
Reservebillionbarrels
MEO $m
IR$bln
AlAhdad CNPC (100) SOMO 0.000
0.115a/*Y
6 3 * 1.00c 350 1.6
Rumaila (N&S)
BP (50.666), CNPC (49.333)
SOMO 1.066e
2.850/7Y
2 500b
10%BLP
17.8 300 15-20
West Qurna1
Exxon Mobil (80), Shell (20)
OEC 0.3000.244f
2.350/2.850 7Y
1.92.0
100
10%BLP
8.6 200 40-50
Zubair Eni (43.747), Oxy (31.253), Kogas (25)
MOC 0.2000.183f
1.200/7Y
2 100
10%BLP
4.1 200 35
Missan (3 oilfields)
CNOOC (85)TAPO (15)
IDC 0.100
0.450/*Y
2.30
300b
10%BLP
2.5 200 *
West Qurna2
Lukoil (75), Statoil (25)
NOC 0.000
1.800/13Y
1.15
150
120 12.876
250 30
Majnoon Shell (60), Petronas (40)
MOC 0.045d
1.800/10Y
1.39
150
175 12.580
300 *
Halfaya CNPC (50), Total (25)Petronas (25),
SOC 0.003
0.535/13Y
1.40
150
70 4.098 200 *
Garraf Petronas (60), Japex (40)
SOC 0.000
0.230/13Y
1.49
100
35 0.863 150 7-8
Badra Gazprom (40), Kogas (30), Petronas (20) TPAO (10),
OEC 0.000
0.170/7Y
5.50
100
15 0.1091.203g
100 3.52
Qaiyara Sonangol (100) SOC 0.000
0.120/9Y
5.00
100
30 0.807 150 2.0
Najma Sonangol (100) IDC 0.000
0.110/9Y
6.00
100
20 0.858 100 *
Total
1.698
11.730 -- 1853
---- 67.285
2500 *
3- Expand Export Capacities and Diversify Export Outlets MoO Plan
2011 – 2.42012 – 3.25
2013 – 5.09
2014 – 5.65
Export outlets (mbd)NAG: 8.5 (5SPMs, BoT & KoT)Syria: 4.5 (Rehab1.25; new 1.25 L/m crude; 1.5 Hc)+ gas pipelineTurkey: 1.6 (Upgrade K-C) + new oil and gas pipelines!Nabucco??Jordan: 10,000 bd (Trucks)
IIS gas pipeline?IPSA- oil pipelie?Zerga-Jordan?
ICOEE
4- Increase Gas Utilization & Reduce Gas Flaring
MoO Plan Natural
gas production capacity (mmcf/d):
2011 – 1,775
2012 – 2,375
2013 – 3,075
2014 – 4,500
• BGC- LNGBR1• IOCs obligationsBR2• Free gas fieldsBR3 • Priority for gas fields.
Possibility for Export of Dry GasBR4
5-Developing Refining Capacity
MoO Plan: Refining capacity (000bd-input)
Four new major refineriesNassiriya (300,000 bd)- $8bn; Missan (150,000 bd)- $5bnKirkuk (150,000 bd)-$5bn; Karbala (140,000 bd)-ca$5bn
The legal frameworks are outlined in two laws: Investment Law (No. 13 of 2006) through NIC and the Refinery Investment Law (No. 64 of 2007). Contractual terms outlined in 17 January 2012 invitation offer from MoO, London Conf., May ???
In addition to these new capacities the ones to be renovated are Baiji, north of Baghdad, the Doura refinery in southern Baghdad and the Basra refinery in the south.
2011 2012 2013 2014575 640 680 700
6- FDI & IOCs Involvement
The State shall guarantee the reform of the Iraqi economy in accordance with modern economic principles to insure the full investment of its resources, diversification of its sources, and the encouragement and development of the private sector. §25
The State shall guarantee the encouragement of investment in the various sectors, and this shall be regulated by law. §26.
Using the most advanced techniques of the market principles and encouraging investment to develop oil and gas wealth. §112 (2nd).
The Constitution
al Principles
$100bn to develop upstream oil and gas fields;
$40bn to develop the gas industry;
$30bn to increase refinery capacity;
$30bn to expand export facilities.
Iraq’s Investment Requirements in the Petroleum Sector
$200 billion
7-NES, NDP and Managing the Plenty
National Energy Strategy NES is drafted by a committee composed of the ministries of Oil, Electricity, Planning, and Finance, DPM/E (HS) and PMAC (TG & others) . The World Bank financed the study and also assisting in its formulation .
IEA-WEO 2012
"This strategy is going to provide the groundwork for which is the optimum scenario for Iraq to follow," "We are looking 20 years from now." (TG-PMAC)
HRDHRD
LRD LRDLIPCU
LGDOHGDO
HIPCU
Honeymoon Risky
Delicate balance
Nightmare
Where stands Iraqi today? Iraq-HIPCU
Iraq-LIPCU
HGDO
LGDO
Honeymo
on
FRD
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Export mbd-LHSRev$/d (mil)-RHS
Conceptual “Situation/ Strategy” MatrixProactive NOT Reactive
Situation /Strategy components
Honey-moon
Delicate balance Risky Nightmare
Situation Analysis/ Description
Impact /Results Assessment (Measurement units, verifications, norms, etc)
Policy Options:(What to do, when, how, etc)
Annexes: (Methodology, data, scenarios, models etc,)
Institutional and Legal Frameworks: (Governance, Transparency and Accountability)
8-Main Determinants Facing Iraq’s Petroleum Strategy
1- Legal: Constitution, FOGL, MoO, INOC, provincial law/KRG etc;
2- Institutional: who do what under what authority..,;
3- Human resources: de facto and de jure.., de-capacitating; management and coordination
4- Logistical (sector specific) and infrastructure;
5- Structural (Macroeconomics): Absorptive capacity limitations, Dutch disease and resource curse attacks;
6- Political (domestic);
7-Geopolitical / regional;
8- International;9- Security;10- Oilfields
specifics;