iran’s missiles: current and future implications for europe rubincon ltd. defense technology...

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for EuropeIran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe

Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting

August 20091

Iran’s Missile: Current and Future Implications for EuropeIran’s Missile: Current and Future Implications for Europe

Uzi Rubin

Based on open source material. Copyright Rubincon Ltd

12th Space and Missile Defense Conference, Huntsville Alabama

• Iran’s armament policy.

• Highlights in Iran’s missile and space programs.

• Analysis of the recent EastWest Institute report on Iran’s missile capabilities.

• Conclusions.



August 20092

Iran Army Day Parade April 2008



August 20093

Iran Army Day Parade 2008 - IAF Flyby



August 20094

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“Musudan/BM25”



August 20095

From Unguided Rockets to PGM: The Fatah 110 Heavy Guided Rocket

Iran’s Achievements in Missiles and Space



August 20096

Iran’s Achievements in Missiles and Space Technology

From 1300 Km Shahab 3 to 2000 Km Kadir 1

Shahab 3 1998 Kadir 1 2007



August 20097

Credit: Jane’s Missile Review


From Land Mobility to Silo Basing



August 20098


From Single Stage Ballistic Missiles to Multi Stage Space Launch Vehicles

Kavoshgar test vehicle Safir Space Launch Vehicle



August 20099


Iran’s SLV Achieves Earth Orbit, February 3rd 2009



August 200910

• Novermber 2007: “Ashura” test announced by Iran’s MoD, no images released.

• November 18th 2008: “Sejjil” test announced by Iran’s Mod, Images released and interviews granted.

• Declared range: “More than 2000 Km”


From Scud Era Technology to Modern Solid Propellant Technology



August 200911

The EastWest Institute Report of May 19 2009

“There is no reliable information at present on the state of Iran’s effort to develop solid propellant rocket motors and therefore no basis on which to make an assessment….” (3.3)



August 200912

Key Claims On Iran’s Missile Program

• “Iran does not have the infrastructure of research institutes, industrial plants or the scientists and engineers that are needed to make substantial improvement in the basic rocket components it used from the start” (3.15)

• “The major problems that have to be solved in building IRBM and ICBMs: a. The development of powerful rocket motors. b. Flight controls, guidance systems and telemetry. c. Reentry vehicle heat protection. d. Construction material. e. Flight testing. Each of these areas would pose major problems for Iran”(3.20)

• "Iran does not now have a missile capable of delivering a 1000 Kg payload to a range of 2000 Km“ (3.21)

• Iran’s longer range missiles “Will probably need a first stage consisting of a cluster of (liquid) rocket motors” and hence “large, visible, cumbersome.. fired from above ground, anchored to their launch sites and will take days to prepare for launch” (3.22 and 3.23)



August 200913

Sejil’s 3rd Flight Test, May 20th 2009

• “The missile will have a range of approximately 2000 to 2500 Km” (Robert Gates, SecDef)• “The test involved a solid propellant system which apparently they developed on their own” (Garry Saymor, NSC)



August 200914

First Stage: 14.720 ton (12,5 tons of propellant)

Second Stage: 5.78 ton ( 4,9 tons of propellant)

Warhead: 1.0 ton

Take off weight: 21.5 ton (Credit: Dr. T. Postol, Addendum to the EWI report)

US 1st generation solid propellant ballistic missiles:

Polaris A1: 14.5 ton

Minuteman I: 33.0 ton1.25 m

Estimated Dimensions and Weights of Sejjil



August 200915

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

30 Months 12 Months 6 Mnths

May 2005: Iran’s MoD announces the successful development of two large solid propellant motors

November 2007: 1st flight test of two stage solid propellant missile (Failure)

November 2008: 2st flight test (Failure)

May 2009: 3st flight test (Success)

Pace of Development: Solid Propellant Missile



August 200916

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

31 Months 6 Mnths

Pace of Development: Space Launch Vehicle

6 Mnths

July 2005: Iran MoD announce a forthcoming satellite

launch “Within one year from green light” February 2008: Unveiling of

“Safir” SLV, Launch of “Kavoshgar” vehicle (Failed in 1st stage)

August 2008: 1st Launch of “Safir” SLV (Failed in 2nd stage)

February 2009: 2nd Launch of “Safir” SLV (Success)



August 200917

Assessing Iran’s Current Proficiency

• The development of powerful rocket motors: Demonstrated existence of infrastructure and skilled human resources to develop manufacture and test 10+ ton composite solid propellant rocket motors.

• Flight controls, guidance systems and telemetry: Demonstrated capability to guide, control and successfully launch an indigenous SLV to earth orbit.

• Reentry vehicle heat protection: Demonstrated capability of RV heat shielding both for Kadir 1 and Sajeel.

• Construction material: None seem to be lacking, MTCR notwithstanding.

• Flight testing: completed 6 major flight tests in 18 months (!)

Impressive recovery from flight test malfunctions – evidence of ample telemetry, competent system engineering and energetic program management.



August 200920

Technical Addendum to the EWI Report, May 31 2009



August 200921

Key Claims in the Technical Addendum

• “The May 19th report did not provide analysis of Iranian solid propellant missiles…(because) the available data was insufficient for serious analysis.”

• “On May 20th Iran successfully tested a solid propellant missile… (which) makes it possible to provide detailed assessment..”

• “The Sejjil should be able to carry a one ton warhead to a range of about 2200 Km.”

• To threaten Northern and Western Europe, Iran will need a 5000 Km missile with 1 ton warhead. Such a missile will require a first stage of 45 tons and will have a take off weight of 65 tons or more.

• “The weight of US Minuteman III and Russia’s SS 27 is about 35 ton”. The large weight of the postulated Iranian IRBM will prevent it from being mobile.

• The Sejjil technologies could not rapidly evolve into ballistic missiles with ranges that could threaten Europe of the continental United States.

• The recent Sejjil test does not alter any of the EWI report’s main conclusions.



August 200923

Assessing Iran’s True Capabilities

• Computations using the EWI Addendum figures for the Sejjil dimensions, weights and ISP figures yield a maximum range of 2500 Km.

• This result was independently derived by US and Israeli teams.

• Accordingly, Iran has already achieved the capability to target to 6 EU/ NATO member states



August 200924

Assessing Iran’s Potential Capabilities

Using the EWI estimated ISP and Mass Fractions of Sejjil, two independent teams

in the US and Israel calculated a significantly smaller 5000 Km “Super Sejjil” First Stage: 31.83 ton

Third Stage: 5,78 ton

Warhead: 1,0 ton

Take off weight: 38.61ton (Credit: D. Wilkening, CISAC, Stanford U)

This missile will be 9 tons lighter than Russia’s fully mobile, 47.2 ton SS27 Topol M



August 200925

Relevant Ranges for Europe Threatening Missiles



August 200926

Relevant Ranges for Europe Threatening Missiles



August 200927

Conclusions

1. Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile and space programs at an almost feverish pace with impressive achievement.

2. In spite of the MTCR and in the face of sanctions, Iran has succeeded to acquire the needed infrastructure and to raise a cadre of proficient scientists and engineers backed by academy and research institutes.

3. The solid propellant Sejjil signifies a breakthrough. This missile is already a threat to a meaningful number of European Union countries.

4. Based on its demonstrated achievements in solid propulsion and staging, Iran will face no significant hurdle in upscaling the Sejjil into a compact, survivable IRBM. A range of 3600 km will be sufficient to put most of the EU under threat.

5. The EWI report estimates that it will take Iran six years to fit a nuclear warhead to a missile. If true, the time to start deploying missile defense in Europe is now.

iran’s missiles: current and future implications for europe rubincon ltd. defense technology...

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