Why Iran is important in geopolitical balance

The nuclear deal signed between Iran and p5+1 is proved to be a game changer. Iran got what it had always wanted, namely, an implicit right to enrich uranium for its civilian nuclear programme, and that the West got what it always wanted, namely, a guarantee that Iran would not move towards a military nuclear programme (something Iran has always denied).

Now we have to see why it is called a GAME CHANGER? In this article we will check it from the different countries point of view.

IMPORTANT FEATURE OF IRANAt the gateway to Central Asia, Southwest Asia, West Asia, Caucasia and Europe, its unique geography has, over centuries, resulted in the extension of the Persian ethno-cultural, linguistic, religious economic and geopolitical influence into the heart of Caucasia, Central Asia and beyond.

US STANCE-Washington kept on changing its foreign policy since world war. From dollar diplomacy to oil diplomacy, from space war to cyber war and this time it is pivot to Asia. But a year after the initial pronouncements on pivot, the policy was rechristened “rebalancing”. It down played the military aspects of the pivot, emphasized economic cooperation and called for closer engagement with China. A Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) between the US and some twelve states in the region would create a free trade area. Simultaneously, the US would enhance its economic assistance and deepen its diplomatic involvement.

WHY THIS SUPEREME POWER IS COME TO NEGOTIATED WITH IRANdiplomatic failure in west Asia (IRAQ, AFGANISTAN, SYRIA)

Economic crisis at home, losing support of European allies Most important emerging china factor that pushed it to focus on Asia than else.

RUSSIA STANCE- There is no doubt that Russia and China has been anti towards west policy so this time also Moscow tried to be lenient with sanctions on Iran. There is also other factors that woos Moscow.

Iran holds a trump card, which can retain Moscow’s standing on top of Eurasia’s energy pyramid.Iran is the core participant of the Iran-Iraq-Syria (IIS) pipeline. The pipeline is configured to pump around 40 billion cubic meters annually, drawn mainly from Iran’s giant South Pars gasfield, towards Syria’s Mediterranean port of Tartus, and home to a Russian base.

CHINA STANCE- it has been really balancing in its policy of anti intervention like in case of Syria. It may be more because of its fear about Xinjiang and Tibet issue. The energy starved china needs Iran support to play its card in west Asia.

Recently Iran’s deputy minister recommended IPI’s extension to china.

Iran has become an important political actor in its region – not just through a politics of sectarianism (as a political centre of Shi’ism) but also through its energy diplomacy and its resolute posture against US (and other Western) intervention. Iran has emerged as one of the main political forces that could provide the basis for stability. Any post-US Afghan political settlement will require Iranian involvement – not only because of the close ties between western Afghanistan and Iran but also because half of Afghanistan’s oil comes from Iran and the pipeline agreements with Pakistan, India and central Asia would require Afghan participation. Iranian diplomacy and power will also be crucial to any policy in Syria, where the civil war has tilted in large part to favour Iran’s ally, the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

SAUDI ARAB AND ISRAEL STANCE- calling this agreement a big “historical mistake”, they are feeling the threat of nuclear hegemony.

Good news followed quite quickly after the embargo around Iran lifted. Oil prices dropped; influenced by the expectation of Iranian oil being allowed to more easily enter the world market (Indonesia hastily inked a deal to buy Iranian oil).

INDIA STANCE-Although India’s reaction to the deal is positive, it remains to be seen whether it puts India-Iran energy relations back on track. It has made it clear that bilateral trade can be enhanced if India introduced banking reforms, facilitating dollar/euro based trade. Second, the European Union is yet to take a decision on when to lift the ban on re-insurance which was the main impediment to oil shipments from Iran. Moreover, Iran has cancelled India’s proposed investment in Farzad-B oil field.

New Delhi is still looking for positive outcomes.

Energy hope-TAPI & IPI(oil and natural gas)

70 km long rail line (the railroad could help India save crores of rupees in logistics to Central Asia, the 55-million-people market. central asia key resource for U)

Both nations had then started a joint effort to increase India’s exports to Iran so that the rupee payment for oil deposited in Iran’s account could be gainfully utilised. India imports petroleum products worth over $10 billion from Iran.Development of Chah-bahar port — barely 80 km away from Pakistan’s Gwadar port and providing access to Afghanistan (a push for the North South Corridor that will use the Bandar Abbas port for connectivity with Turkmenistan, the Caucasus and beyond).

Improving intra-Asian security, trade and energy linkages.An Indian-built road from the Afghan border town of Zaranj to Afghan garland highway for providing it market.

India has allotted $100 million for the sorting out a trilateral arrangement with Iran and Afghanistan for a customs and transit agreement.

Well by analyzing all the facts we can say it is defiantly a game changer that somehow shifts the power balance in west Asia. At least war has been temporally averted.Now it is up to New Delhi how she plays her role in changing geopolitics.

Neha Shrivastava

SOURCES –

THE HINDUIDSAEPW