The theme for IRAHSS 2017 is "Black Swans and Black Elephants". As the theme suggests, the symposium aims to identify the Black Swans – rare, hard-to-predict events with a large impact, and Black Elephants – rare but significant risks that everyone knows about, but no one wants to discuss.

Discussions will centre on Black Swans and Black Elephants in...

The FutureGeopoliticallandscape

TheFuture ofTechnology

TheFuture Society

TheFuture ofTerrorism

Global leaders are facing an increasingly challenging task – how to make sense of a tumultuous and rapidly shifting global environment. The popular revolt against globalisation has undermined traditional politics and drastically altered the face of international relations. New tensions and conflict zones have emerged as a result of these developments. What are the political, economic and security challenges of this revised landscape, and how can actors position themselves amidst a time of unprecedented volatility?

DeepStack, a computer AI programme, recently beat top professional players in no-limit Texas Hold 'Em Poker, a game of not just intelligence, but intuition, bluff and luck. Is technology finally progressing faster than we can cope? The speed at which new breakthroughs and innovations are emerging has outpaced attempts at limiting the excesses of technological development. What can we expect from this industrial revolution, and what measures are there to contain the genie now that it’s free from its bottle?

Modern society has been swept by a wave of disruptive innovation that promises to make our lives easier and more convenient, while simultaneously threatening our safety, livelihoods, and independence. What are the driving forces that could lead to the creation of a harmonious technological utopia, or does an Orwellian dystopia await us?

Although the so-called Islamic State has been pushed to the edge of defeat, its adherents and sympathisers are finding new, novel ways to strike at the enemies of the would-be Caliphate. In this regard, the nexus between jihadists and technology is extremely strong, from leveraging social media platforms to recruit new fighters, to using smartphone applications to avoid surveillance. The democratisation of knowledge through the Internet also means that once sophisticated weapons such as pathogenic agents and radiological explosive devices are no longer off-limits to the determined individual. How will technology change terrorism and what can we do to defeat this ominous development?

IRAHSS 2017PROGRAMMED A Y 1

Tuesday 18 July 2017

Registration

Opening Remarks by Peter HoBlack Swans and Black Elephants

Kishore MahbubaniThe Three Global Revolutions

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Evelyn GohA Risen China and Geopolitics in East Asia

Parag KhannaThe New Connected World Order

Symposium Opening

Chris SchroederUnleashing the Bottom Up

Futures Conversations 1Featuring: Kishore Mahbubani, Evelyn Goh, Chris Schroeder, Parag Khanna

Moderated by Aaron Maniam and Max Brooks

The Future Geopolitical Landscape

Lunch

AM Tea Break

IRAHSS 2017PROGRAMMED A Y 1

Tuesday 18 July 2017

Liran TancmanThe Future of Cyber Security: Will Society be able to Trust Technology?

Lim May-AnnThe Next Web: Digital Governance and Public Policy

Victor AlexievArtificial Intelligence as Gods or Genies

Nik Gowing & Ken LyonDay 1 Closing: Connecting the Dots

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Futures Conversations 2Featuring: Lim May-Ann, Liran Tancman, Linton Wells II, Victor Alexiev

Moderated by Aaron Maniam and Max Brooks

Linton Wells IISocio-Economic Opportunities in Technological Change: Collaborative Community Resilience

IRAHSS 2017 Dinner (Speakers, Moderators and Invited Guests)

The Future of Technology

End of Day 1

PM Tea Break

IRAHSS 2017PROGRAMMED A Y 2

Wednesday 19 July 2017

Futures Conversations 3Featuring: Peter Klimek, Noboru Nakatani, Thomas Philbeck,Noah Raford

Moderated by Barry Pavel and Dave Snowden

Nicole YeoThe Future As I See it

Peter KlimekDigital Transformation in Healthcare: Risks and Opportunities

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Guests to be Seated0 8 4 0

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Noboru NakataniProtecting Future Society from Future Crime – INTERPOL’s Perspective

Thomas PhilbeckPurpose and Prosperity in the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Noah RafordSuper Us or The Last of Us? Elites, Aliens and Authority in Your Neighbourhood

Lunch

The Future Society

AM Tea Break

IRAHSS 2017PROGRAMMED A Y 2

Wednesday 19 July 2017

Futures Conversations 4Featuring: Shashi Jayakumar, John Robb, Wedad Al Hassen, Peter Neumann

Moderated by Barry Pavel and Dave Snowden

Peter NeumannOld and New Terrorism: How will Jihadism Evolve?

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Shashi JayakumarExtremism and its Futures

John RobbThe Automation of Terrorism

Wedad Al HassenPreventing and Countering Violent Extremism

The Future of Terrorism

End of Symposium

PM Tea Break

Nik Gowing & Ken LyonDay 2 Closing: Connecting the Dots

Day 1 - Tuesday 18 July 2017

T H E F U T U R E G E O P O L I T I C A L L A N D S C A P E

T H E F U T U R E O F T E C H N O L O G Y

Day 2 - Wednesday 19 July 2017

T H E F U T U R E O F T E R R O R I S M

F U T U R E S C O N V E R S A T I O N S Moderated by

IRAHSS 2017PROGRAMME

T H E F U T U R E S O C I E T Y

Shashi JayakumarHead of Centre of Excellence for National Security

S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Nanyang Technological University

Peter NeumannDirector, ICSR and Professor of

Security StudiesKing’s College London

Wedad Al Hassen Senior Program Associate

Hedayah

John RobbAuthor, Military Analyst

and Entrepreneur

Liran TancmanCEO and Co-Founder

CyActive

Aaron ManiamSenior Director (Industry Division)

Ministry of Trade and Industry

Max BrooksBest-Selling Author

World War ZThe Zombie Survival Guide

The Harlem Hellfighters

Dave SnowdenDirector Cyne�n Centre

Bangor University, Wales

Barry PavelSenior Vice President

Arnold Kanter Chair and DirectorBrent Scowcroft Center on

International Security

Global leaders are facing an increasingly challenging task – how to make sense of a tumultuous and rapidly shifting global environment. The popular revolt against globalisation has undermined traditional politics and

of these developments. What are the political, economic and security challenges of this revised landscape, and how can actors position themselves amidst a time of unprecedented volatility?

DeepStack, a computer AI programme, recently beat top professional players in no-limit Texas Hold ‘Em faster

than we can cope? The speed at which new breakthroughs and innovations are emerging has outpaced attempts at limiting the excesses of technological development. What can we expect from this industrial revolution, and what measures are there to contain the genie now that it’s free from its bottle?

Modern society has been swept by a wave of disruptive innovation that promises to make our lives easier and more convenient, while simultaneously threatening our safety, livelihoods, and independence. What are the driving forces that could lead to the creation of a harmonious technological utopia, or does an Orwellian dystopia await us?

Noboru NakataniExecutive Director

Interpol Global Complex for Innovation

Christopher SchroederFounder, Next Billion Ventures; Serial

Entrepreneur; Author Startup Rising:

The Entrepreneurial Revolution Remaking the Middle East

Parag KhannaBest-Selling Author

Connectography

Kishore MahbubaniDean

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public PolicyNational University of Singapore

Noah Raford

Dubai Future Foundation

Lim May-AnnExecutive Director

Asia Cloud Computing Association

Evelyn GohShedden Professor of Strategic Policy Studies

Australia National University

Peter Ho Senior Advisor

Centre for Strategic Futures

Nik GowingVisiting Professor, NTU

Founder, ‘Thinking the Unthinkable’ ProjectInternational Broadcaster

Ken LyonManaging DirectorVirtual Partners Ltd

Linton Wells IIPresident

Global Resilience Strategies

O P E N I N G R E M A R K S C L O S I N G S P E A K E R S

Peter KlimekAssistant Professor

Section for Science of Complex SystemsMedical University of Vienna

Thomas PhilbeckGlobal Leadership Fellow and Project Lead

for the Fourth Industrial Revolution World Economic Forum

Victor AlexievFounder and Co-Managing Director

Innovator SG

Although the so-called Islamic State has been pushed to the edge of defeat, its adherents and sympathisers are �nding new, novel ways to strike at the enemies of the would-be Caliphate. In this regard, the nexus between jihadists and technology is extremely strong, from leveraging social media platforms to recruit new �ghters, to using smartphone applications to avoid surveillance. The democratisation of knowledge through the Internet also means that once sophisticated weapons such as pathogenic agents and radiological explosive devices are no longer off-limits to the determined individual. How will technology change terrorism and what can we do to defeat this ominous development?

T H E F U T U R E G E O P O L I T I C A L L A N D S C A P E

IRAHSS 2017SPEAKER LINE-UP

Kishore MahbubaniDean

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public PolicyNational University of Singapore

Kishore MAHBUBANI served as Singapore’s Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) and President of the UN Security Council. He was listed by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the top 100 global thinkers in 2005, 2010 and 2011, where he was proclaimed ‘the muse of the Asian century’. Kishore is the author of many in�uential books and articles, and his latest book is titled “The ASEAN Miracle: A Catalyst for Peace”.

Parag KhannaBest-Selling Author

Connectography

Parag KHANNA’s diverse research covers globalisation, Chinese grand strategy, Eurasian geopolitics, energy and transportation infrastructure. Parag is a best-selling author, and his latest book “Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization” was praised for its scholarship and considered by many to be a must-read for anyone interested in geopolitics. Parag is a CNN Global Contributor, Managing Partner of Hybrid Reality, and Co-Founder and CEO of Factotum, and a Senior Research Fellow at the LKY School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.

Evelyn GohShedden Professor of Strategic Policy Studies

Australia National University

Evelyn GOH is the Director of Research at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre of Australia National University. She has published widely on US-China relations and diplomatic history, East Asian security and international relations, contemporary strategic relations, and environmental security.

Christopher SchroederFounder, Next Billion Ventures; Serial

Entrepreneur; Author Startup Rising:

The Entrepreneurial Revolution Remaking the Middle East

Christopher SCHROEDER is an entrepreneur, advisor, and venture investor in interactive technologies and social communications. His book, “Startup Rising -- The Entrepreneurial Revolution Remaking the Middle East”, is a unique account of start-ups in the Arab world, providing a timely look at what he called “the second stealth revolution in the Middle East” after the Arab Spring. He also previously served in public policy, politics, and business capacities.

T H E F U T U R E O F T E C H N O L O G Y

IRAHSS 2017SPEAKER LINE-UP

Lim May-AnnExecutive Director

Asia Cloud Computing Association

May-Ann LIM was appointed to the World Economic Forum (WEF)'s Global Future Council in 2016-2017, for her extensive work on technology-focused public policy in multiple regional and global institutions, including the World Bank, the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), and the Singapore Internet Project. May-Ann is also the Executive Director of the Asia Cloud Computing Association (ACCA), an industry association which represents the voice of technology and cloud computing businesses in Asia Paci�c.

Victor AlexievFounder and Co-Managing

Director of Innovator SG

Victor ALEXIEV applies a rare combination of practical experience and systematic rigour to Innovator SG’s core mission: making innovation pipelines more effective. Victor has been active in rational decision modelling and systems design since 2006, working with a diverse client base: Unilever, Deutsche Bank, Citibank, Microsoft, Siemens, among many others. Victor has launched several startups, has an interest in a software development house and AI studio and has managed 16 product development teams across the EU and Asia. Prior to returning to Innovator SG, he was Head of R&D at Nugit, a Singapore arti�cial intelligence (AI) company providing analytics for digital marketers that received a 5.2 million USD Series A from Sequoia in 2016.

Liran TancmanCEO and Co-Founder

CyActive

Liran TANCMAN is an entrepreneur and expert in all things Cyberspace. Formerly head of cyber security-strategy at an elite military intelligence unit in Israel, he co-founded a start-up called CyActive, which works on solutions for predictive malware detection, an important tool for detecting new strains of malicious software. After CyActive was bought over by PayPal in 2015 for US$60m, Liran continued to work on unique cyber security approaches. He now works with a start-up called APERIO that develops solutions for critical infrastructure systems.

Linton Wells IIPresident

Global Resilience Strategies

Linton WELLS II served 26 years in the United States Navy and was appointed by the White House as the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, serving through the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations. He has written many books, articles, and white papers on matters of national security, American military capability, and global humanitarian operations. Linton founded the international STAR-TIDES network in 2007, to promote sharing of technology research towards innovation in human security and emergency support. Today, it is a network of some 5,000 global ‘nodes’ comprising agencies, organizations, institutions and individuals in over 40 countries. Linton was listed as one of the top 16 "Players of Tech" by Fortune magazine in 2016.

T H E F U T U R E S O C I E T Y

T H E F U T U R E A S I S E E I T

Noboru NakataniExecutive Director

Interpol Global Complex for Innovation

Noboru NAKATANI  is a law enforcement specialist, combatting both organized crime and cybercrime. Mr Nakatani holds the rank of Commissioner at the National Police Agency (NPA) of Japan and also heads the INTERPOL Global Complex for Innovation (IGCI) in Singapore, an R&D facility that develops innovative solutions to �ght future crime. He previously supervised the development of critical Infocom Technology services for the global law enforcement community, as well as solutions against �nancial and high-tech crime at INTERPOL HQ.

Noah RafordChief Operating Of�cer

Dubai Future Foundation

Noah RAFORD is the Chief Operating Of�cer (COO) of the Dubai Future Foundation, the UAE’s �rst national foresight unit, and a former advisor on futures, foresight and innovation in the UAE Prime Minister’s Of�ce. He is currently in-charge of the development of the Museum of the Future, which is scheduled to be opened in 2018. The Museum, a �rst-of-its-kind, is set to be an incubation centre for new and futuristic inventions, such as bio-desalination (water), robotic farming (“food net” and “food bot”) and automated construction. Prior to working in the UAE, Noah was the founding CEO of Futurescaper LLC, a foresight technology company.

IRAHSS 2017SPEAKER LINE-UP

Peter KlimekAssistant Professor

Section for Science of Complex SystemsMedical University of Vienna

Peter KLIMEK’s research focuses on the possibilities that big data and complexity science offer for the future of medicine. His work uses methods from network analysis, statistical mechanics, complex data analysis, and various simulation and modelling approaches to understand how we can improve patient health and the healthcare system. Peter’s work has attracted broad media interest and was featured on various BBC programs, scienti�c publications, and multiple international newspapers.

Thomas PhilbeckGlobal Leadership Fellow and Project Lead

for the Fourth Industrial Revolution World Economic Forum

Thomas PHILBECK is a Global Leadership Fellow and the project lead for the Fourth Industrial Revolution at the World Economic Forum (WEF). Before joining the WEF, Thomas served as assistant dean of the College of Arts and Sciences for the New York Institute of Technology. His area of focus is the intersection between technology, society, business and philosophy.

Nicole YeoIntern, RAHS Programme Of�ce

National Security Coordination Secretariat

Nicole YEO is an intern with the RAHS Programme Of�ce in NSCS. With a Diploma in Media and Communications, she is currently pursuing a degree in English Literature at NTU. Her research interest lies in war, trauma studies and psychoanalysis in literature. Having enjoyed the interaction with international students and professors during her exchange in England, Nicole plans to further her studies abroad. Nicole hopes to eventually work with trauma survivors and displaced peoples. She aspires to be an author and creative artist who dabbles with �owers, paint, embroidery.

T H E F U T U R E O F T E R R O R I S M

Shashi JayakumarHead of Centre of Excellence for National Security

S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Nanyang Technological University

Shashi JAYAKUMAR is head of the Centre of Excellence in National Security (CENS) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and is an authority on medieval history as well as on radicalisation and countering violent extremism. He has been a member of the Singapore Administrative Service since 2002, having served in the Ministries of Defence, Manpower, Information and the Arts, Community Development, Youth and Sports. The focus of Shashi’s research has been on Singapore’s history post-1965, society and politics and national security.

John RobbAuthor, Military Analyst

and Entrepreneur

John ROBB worked for the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff to examine how Arti�cial General Intelligence (AGI) and robotics would transform the combat tactics in 2035. John has written extensively, whether it be on his blog, “Global Guerrillas” (which covers developments in terrorism and guerrilla warfare), or his 2012 book, “Brave New War”, which discussed the future of terrorism. John is also an Internet entrepreneur, and served as the COO and CEO of User Land Software, which built the �rst fully functional social networking system in 2001. This technology was then used to create Facebook in 2004 and Twitter in 2006.

Wedad Al Hassen Senior Program Associate

Hedayah

Wedad Al HASSEN is a senior program associate at the HedayahCenter, UAE. Described as a “Think-and-do Tank”, the Hedayah Centre serves as an international hub for policy makers, practitioners and researchers in the �eld of Countering Violent Extremism (CVE), to enhance understanding and share best practices. Wedad manages multiple initiatives and projects on CVE both in the UAE and internationally, including the development of its Communications Strategy, Internship Programme and corporate branding. Wedad managed the �rst ever Global CVE Expo, and also introduced and the �rst ever CVE Hackathon.

Peter NeumannDirector, ICSR and Professor of

Security StudiesKing’s College London

Peter NEUMANN is the Director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR). He has led and worked on many in�uential policy projects on the crime-terror nexus, radicalisation and de-radicalisation, foreign �ghter networks, terrorist defectors, and terrorist recruitment in Europe. As Chairman of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)’s Special Representative on Countering Violent Radicalisation, Peter advises the Club de Madrid, an association of former Presidents and Prime Ministers, and has testi�ed before the UN Security Council, the US House of Representatives and the UK House of Commons. His latest book, published in 2016, is titled “Radicalised New Jihadists and the Threat against the West”.

IRAHSS 2017SPEAKER LINE-UP

C L O S I N G S P E A K E R S

F U T U R E S C O N V E R S A T I O N SModerated by

Aaron MANIAM is Senior Director of the Industry Division at the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). He began his career in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and since then, had undertaken many portfolios: the Strategic Policy Of�ce at the Public Service Division in 2008, Head of the Singapore Government’s Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) in 2010, and Director of the Institute of Policy Development at the Civil Service College. In his current role in the MTI, Aaron coordinates policy on manufacturing, services, tourism and economic transformation. Aaron has received many accolades: Asia Society’s “Asia 21 Young Leaders’ (2006), the Orchid Jayceettes of Singapore’s “Outstanding Young Singaporean (2011), the Singapore Youth Award (2012), and a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader (2013).

Max BROOKS is a leading author, screenwriter and actor, well-known for his bestselling novel “World War Z: An Oral History of the Zombie War”. Besides being undeniably entertaining, his book raises awareness on issues of disaster preparedness, crisis management, and scenario planning. World War Z spent four weeks on the New York Times Best Seller list and had sold one million copies in multiple formats by 2011. His work was later produced into a Hollywood blockbuster in 2013. Max is currently a non-resident senior fellow with the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security’s Art of the Future Project.

Barry PavelSenior Vice President

Arnold Kanter Chair and DirectorBrent Scowcroft Center on

International Security

Barry PAVEL focuses on emerging security challenges, defence strategies and capabilities. Prior to this, he was a career member of the Senior Executive Service in the Of�ce of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy for 18 years. Barry served as the special assistant to the President and senior director for defence policy and strategy on the National Security Council (NSC) staff, serving both former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Barry led the development of �ve of the �rst eight Obama Administration Presidential Study Directives. He was the initiator and architect of the NSC’s �rst-ever National Security Priorities Review and a key contributor to the President’s 2010 National Security Strategy. Barry received a Presidential Rank Award in 2007 in recognition of his career accomplishments.

Aaron ManiamSenior Director (Industry Division)

Ministry of Trade and Industry

Max BrooksBest-Selling Author

World War ZThe Zombie Survival Guide

The Harlem Hellfighters

IRAHSS 2017SPEAKER LINE-UP

Dave SnowdenDirector Cyne�n Centre

Bangor University, Wales

Dave SNOWDEN is the founder and chief scienti�c of�cer of Cognitive Edge. His work covers government and industry, examining complex issues relating to strategy and decision making. He has pioneered a science-based approach to organisations which draws on anthropology, neuroscience and complex adaptive systems theory. Dave is well known for his pragmatic cynicism and iconoclastic style, holding visiting Chairs at the Universities of Pretoria and Hong Kong Polytechnic University as well as a visiting fellowship at the University of Warwick. He is a senior fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at NTU.

Nik GOWING co-authored interim �ndings of the "Thinking the Unthinkable" study in 2016. They reveal candidly why so many leaders face new dif�culties identifying what looms in the disruptions of the “new normal” since 2014. Nik Gowing was a main news presenter for the BBC’s international 24-hour news channel BBC World News 1996-2014. For 18 years he worked at ITN where he was bureau chief in Rome and Warsaw, and Diplomatic Editor for Channel Four News (1988-1996). He has been on the councils of Chatham House (1998-2004), the Royal United Services Institute (2005-present), and the Overseas Development Institute (2007-2014), the board of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy including vice chair (1996-2005), and the advisory council at Wilton Park (1998-2012 ). In 1994 he was a fellow at the Joan Shorenstein Barone Center in the J. F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. He is a board member for the Hay Literature Festival. His peer-reviewed study at Oxford University “Skyful of Lies and Black Swans” predicted and identi�ed the new vulnerability, fragility and brittleness of institutional power in the new all-pervasive public information space.

Ken LYON is Managing Director of Virtual Partners. He has over 35 years of experience in the use of information systems to manage the operations of logistics service providers and their trading partner networks. He is a member of government forums and institutes focused on the impact of agile and adaptable supply chain strategies, Internet of Things, 3D printing and other emerging technologies. He is a Fellow of The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, a member of The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and The Institute of Directors.

Nik GowingVisiting Professor, NTU

Founder, ‘Thinking the Unthinkable’ ProjectInternational Broadcaster

Ken LyonManaging DirectorVirtual Partners Ltd

VISION

MISSION

A leading centre of expertise for strategic anticipation for national security.

Enhance policymaking capabilities through engaging analysis, robust processes, andleading-edge systems.

I D E N T I F Y I S S U E S D E V E L O P F O R E S I G H T D E V E L O P S Y S T E M S

SCAN FOR WEAK SIGNALS

The RAHS Programme Office (RPO) scans open source data for emerging trends and weak signals using the RAHS System, highlighting articles of interest in a daily SKAN publication.

From the SKAN articles, RPO identifies issues of potential significance to Singapore’s national security in a 5- to 10-year timeframe.

IDENTIFY EMERGING NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES

Important issues are developed into Risk Scenarios, which will be further studied with relevant stakeholders and agencies.

DEVELOP RISK SCENARIOS(SCENARIO PLANNING)

Risk Scenarios are prioritised and further assessed to understand their potential impact and surface possible mitigation and response measures.

RISK ASSESSMENT

DEVELOP FORESIGHT TOOLS

FORESIGHT TRAINING

RPO develops new tools and vehicles to enable and communicate foresight work. Tools developed include SKAN, Scan-to- Issues, Dashboards, System Mapping, Morphological Analysis, Backcasting, Crowdsensor and WikiSense, our collaborative foresight platform.

RPO trains agencies on foresight methods and the use of the RAHS System to conduct horizon scanning and scenario planning independently. The training is jointly conducted by RPO and DSTA.

DEVELOP RAHS SYSTEM

The RAHS System is developed in partnership with our core technology partner, the Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA). It supports NSCS and 30 government agencies with horizon scanning and strategic anticipation. Currently at version 3.0, ongoing system development is performed in consultation with key agencies to ensure the system’s operational and strategic utility.

EXPERIMENT WITH TECHNOLOGY

Together, RPO and DSTA experiment with new technologies to enhance horizon scanning, risk assessment and risk communication. RPO and DSTA leverage technology to develop solutions and countermeasures for the national security issues and scenarios identified.