ipsos poll november 19 2015

8/20/2019 IPSOS Poll November 19 2015

1/17

© 2015 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary informationand may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

11.18.2015

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Core Political Approval


2/17

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted

for date

November 14-18, 2015

For the survey,

a sample of

3,418

Americans

including

1,275

Democrats

1,299

Republicans

459

Independents

w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e


3/17

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility inte

In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percent

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

1.9

for all adults

3.1

Democrats

3.1

Republicans

5.2

Independ


4/17

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:

─ Gender

─ Age

─ Education

─ Ethnicity

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.

All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage

error and measurement error.

Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of on

per cent.

Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.


5/17

RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACKGenerally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on

24%

61%

14%

All Adults44%

40%

17%

Democrats

10%

84%

5%

Republicans

Right Direction

Wrong Track

Don’t Know


6/17

BARACK OBAMAOverall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do yo

disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)

Total Democrat Republican

Strongly approve 21% 40% 9%

Somewhat approve 17% 32% 5%

Lean towards approve 4% 6% 1%

Lean towards disapprove 3% 2% 2%

Somewhat disapprove 12% 10% 14%

Strongly disapprove 36% 9% 68%

Not sure 7% 2% 1%

TOTAL APPROVE 42% 77% 15%

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 51% 20% 83%


7/17

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016.

If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you v

Total

(n=2,143)

Republican

(n=1,299)

Inde

(n

Donald Trump 30% 37%

Benjamin Carson 11% 14%

Marco Rubio 8% 11%

Ted Cruz 5% 8%

Rand Paul 5% 5%

Jeb Bush 4% 6%

Mike Huckabee2% 3%

Carly Fiorina 2% 3%

Chris Christie 2% 3%

John Kasich 2% 2%

Bobby Jindal 1% 1%

Rick Santorum 1% 1%

Lindsey Graham 1% *%

George Pataki *% *%

Jim Gilmore *% *%

Wouldn’t vote 24% 6%

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES


8/17

Regardless of your personal preference, if the Republican Presidential Primaries came down to these candidvote?

Total

(n=2,143)

Republican

(n=1,299)

Donald Trump 36% 43%

Benjamin Carson 21% 26%

Marco Rubio 18% 25%


REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES


9/17

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016.If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vo

Total

(n=2,119)

Democrat

(n=1,275)

Hillary Clinton 39% 52%

Bernie Sanders 27% 31%

Martin O’Malley 4% 4%


DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES


10/17

Weekly Presidential Approval

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

J a n 1 - 7 , 2 0 1 2

J a n 1 5 - 2 1 , 2 0 1 2

F e b 5 - 1 1 , 2 0 1 2

F e b 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 2

M a r 4 - M a r 1 0 , 2 0 1 2

M a r 1 8 - 2 4 , 2 0 1 2

A p r 1 - 7 , 2 0 1 2

A p r 1 5 - 2 1 , 2 0 1 2

A p r 2 9 - M a y 5 , 2 0 1 2

M a y 1 3 - 1 9 , 2 0 1 2

M a y 2 7 - J u n 2 , 2 0 1 2

J u n 1 0 - 1 6 , 2 0 1 2

J u n 2 4 - J u n 3 0 , 2 0 1 2

J u l 8 - 1 4 , 2 0 1 2

J u l 2 2 - 2 8 , 2 0 1 2

A u g 5 - 1 1 , 2 0 1 2

A u g 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 2

S e p t 2 - 8 , 2 0 1 2

S e p t 1 6 - 2 2 , 2 0 1 2

S e p t 3 0 - O c t 6 , 2 0 1 2

O c t 1 4 - 2 0 , 2 0 1 2

O c t 2 8 - N o v 3 , 2 0 1 2

N o v 1 1 - 1 7 , 2 0 1 2

N o v 2 5 - D e c 1 , 2 0 1 2

D e c 9 - 1 5 , 2 0 1 2

D e c 2 3 - 2 9 , 2 0 1 2

J a n 8 - 1 4 , 2 0 1 3

J a n 2 2 - 2 8 , 2 0 1 3

F e b 5 - 1 1 , 2 0 1 3

F e b 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 3

M a r 5 - M a r 1 1 , 2 0 1 3

M a r 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 3

A p r 2 - 8 , 2 0 1 3

A p r 1 6 - 2 2 , 2 0 1 3

A p r 3 0 - M a y 6 , 2 0 1 3

M a y 1 4 - 2 0 , 2 0 1 3

M a y 2 8 - J u n 3 , 2 0 1 3

J u n 1 1 - 1 7 , 2 0 1 3

J u n 2 5 - J u l 1 , 2 0 1 3

J u l 9 - 1 5 , 2 0 1 3

J u l 2 3 - 2 9 , 2 0 1 3

A u g 6 - 1 2 , 2 0 1 3

A u g 2 0 - 2 6 , 2 0 1 3

S e p t 3 - 9 , 2 0 1 3

S e p t 1 7 - 2 3 , 2 0 1 3

O c t 1 - 7 , 2 0 1 3

O c t 1 5 - 2 1 , 2 0 1 3

O c t 2 9 - N o v 4 , 2 0 1 3

N o v 1 2 - 1 8 , 2 0 1 3

N o v 2 6 - D e c 2 , 2 0 1 3

D e c 1 0 - 1 6 , 2 0 1 3

D e c 2 4 - 3 0 , 2 0 1 3

J a n 8 - 1 4 , 2 0 1 4

J a n 2 2 - 2 8 , 2 0 1 4

F e b 5 - 1 1 , 2 0 1 4

F e b 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 4

M a r 5 - M a r 1 1 , 2 0 1 4

M a r 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 4

A p r 2 - 8 , 2 0 1 4

A p r 1 6 - 2 2 , 2 0 1 4

A p r 3 0 - M a y 6 , 2 0 1 4

M a y 1 4 - 2 0 , 2 0 1 4

M a y 2 8 - J u n 3 , 2 0 1 4

J u n 1 1 - 1 7 , 2 0 1 4

J u n 2 5 - J u l 1 , 2 0 1 4

J u l 9 - 1 5 , 2 0 1 4

J u l 2 3 - 2 9 , 2 0 1 4

A u g 1 3 - 1 9 , 2 0 1 4

A u g 2 7 - S e p t 2 , 2 0 1 4

S e p t 1 0 - 1 6 , 2 0 1 4

O c t 1 - 7 , 2 0 1 4

O c t 1 5 - 2 1 , 2 0 1 4

O c t 2 9 - N o v 4 , 2 0 1 4

N o v 2 6 - D e c 1 , 2 0 1 4

D e c 1 0 - 1 6 , 2 0 1 4

J a n 1 - 7 , 2 0 1 5

J a n 1 5 - 2 1 , 2 0 1 5

J a n 2 9 - F e b 4 , 2 0 1 5

For tracking purposes, approval ratings in the above graphic reflect weekly roll-ups of our tracking data (a 7-day period), rather than the 5-day period reflected throughout this topline document


11/17

CORE POLITICAL APPROVALIn your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following?(n=1,249)

All Adults (n=1,249) Democratic

Party

Republican

Party Independents Other None Don’t know

DEM/

PARTY

Healthcare 30% 25% 6% 1% 14% 25% 5%

The war on terror 18% 30% 6% 2% 17% 28% -12

Iran 16% 24% 5% 2% 18% 34% -8%

The US Economy 26% 26% 7% 1% 15% 25% 1%

Immigration 22% 30% 5% 3% 15% 25% -8%

Social Security 28% 19% 6% 2% 17% 27% 9%

Medicare 31% 20% 5% 1% 17% 26% 12

Taxes 25% 27% 6% 2% 15% 25% -2%

Gay marriage 33% 16% 7% 1% 14% 28% 16

Jobs and employment 30% 24% 5% 3% 13% 24% 7%The federal government deficit 21% 23% 8% 2% 19% 28% -3%

Supporting small businesses 24% 22% 10% 2% 13% 29% 2%

Education 29% 21% 5% 1% 16% 29% 8%

Foreign policy 21% 27% 7% 2% 15% 29% -6%

Women’s rights 36% 16% 7% 1% 13% 28% 20

The environment 31% 16% 10% 2% 14% 28% 15

Israel 17% 25% 5% 2% 16% 35% -8%

Syria 16% 24% 5% 1% 18% 36% -8%

Energy policy 26% 19% 6% 2% 14% 32% 7%


12/17

36%33%

31% 31% 30% 30% 29% 28%26% 26% 25% 24%

22% 21% 21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following?(n=1,249)

Democratic Party


13/17


Republican Party

30% 30%27% 27% 26% 25% 25% 24% 24% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


14/17

20%16% 15%

12%

9% 8% 7% 7%5%

2% 1%

-2%-3%

-6%

-8% -8

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Democratic/Republican Party Difference

Democrat Advantage

Republican Advantage


15/17

Party IdentificationAll Adults: n= 3,418

13%

19%

7%

7%

14%

12%

14%

8%

6%

39%

33%

14%

14%

Strong Democrat

Moderate Democrat

Lean Democrat

Lean Republican

Moderate Republican

Strong Republican

Independent

None of these

DK

Democrat

Republican

Independent

None/DK


16/17

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Inte

• The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the paramete

where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample

mean (y ̅) is a natural esmate of the true populaon proporon θ. This model is oen called the likelihood fu

standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both tthe likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion ab

plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s kn

using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribu

distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.

• Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals repre

which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calc

based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to whaClassical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The wo

assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution

interval is given by, approximately:


17/17

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Inte

For this poll,the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for com

Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.

SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY

INTERVALS

2,000 2.5

1,500 2.9

1,000

3.5

750

4.1

500 5.0

350

6.0

200

7.9

100

11.2

1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 20032 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

Ipsos does not publish data

for base sizes

(sample sizes) below 100.

ipsos poll november 19 2015

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