ipsos poll conducted for thomson reuters core political data...undecided, lean trump 6% 4% 2% 7% 11%...
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© 2020 Ipsos 1
Core Political DataAUGUST 12, 2020
Ipsos Poll Conducted for Thomson Reuters
© 2020 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
© 2020 Ipsos 2
For the survey,
a sample of
1,215Americans
including
521Democratic Registered
Voters
386Republican Registered
Voters
93Independent
Registered Voters
18+
ages
w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e
1,034Registered
Voters
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for date
August 10-11, 2020
Core Political DataIPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
© 2020 Ipsos 3
IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.
In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points
For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
3.2
All Adults
4.9
Democratic Registered Voters
5.7
Republican Registered Voters
11.6
Independent Registered Voters
3.5
All RegisteredVoters
Core Political Data
© 2020 Ipsos 4
• The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
– Gender
– Age
– Education
– Ethnicity
– Region
• Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.
• All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
• Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.
• Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
• To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit: http://polling.reuters.com/
Core Political DataIPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
© 2020 Ipsos 5
Right Direction/Wrong TrackALL ADULT AMERICANS
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Don’t know
22%
69%
10%
All Adults
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
23%
71%
6%
All Registered
Voters
6%
91%
2%
Democratic Registered
Voters
47%
43%
10%
Republican Registered
Voters
10%
81%
9%
Independent Registered
Voters
© 2020 Ipsos 6
Most Important Problem Facing AmericaALL ADULT AMERICANS
All Adults All Registered VotersDemocratic
Registered VotersRepublican
Registered VotersIndependent
Registered Voters
Economy generally 19% 20% 15% 24% 23%
Unemployment / lack of jobs 10% 10% 10% 11% 9%
War / foreign conflicts 2% 2% 1% 3% 2%
Immigration 5% 5% 4% 7% 6%
Terrorism / terrorist attacks 3% 3% 1% 6% 2%
Healthcare 19% 21% 28% 13% 20%
Energy issues 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Morality 7% 8% 5% 12% 1%
Education 4% 3% 4% 1% 4%
Crime 4% 4% 2% 8% 3%
Environment 5% 5% 7% 3% 1%
Other 16% 16% 20% 10% 23%
Don’t know 4% 2% 1% 2% 5%
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
© 2020 Ipsos 7
Most Important Problem Facing AmericaALL ADULT AMERICANS
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Economy generally
Unemployment / jobs
Healthcare
Terrorism
Immigration
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2020 Ipsos 8
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)
All Adults Registered VotersDemocratic
Registered VotersRepublican
Registered VotersIndependent
Registered Voters
Strongly approve 23% 25% 4% 56% 12%
Somewhat approve 14% 13% 3% 27% 11%
Lean towards approve 3% 3% 1% 4% 4%
Lean towards disapprove 1% 1% 0% 1% 2%
Somewhat disapprove 9% 8% 9% 6% 13%
Strongly disapprove 45% 48% 81% 5% 46%
Not sure 5% 2% 1% 1% 12%
TOTAL APPROVE 40% 41% 8% 87% 27%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 55% 57% 91% 12% 61%
Donald Trump’s ApprovalALL ADULT AMERICANS
© 2020 Ipsos 9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan
20-
24
, 20
17
Feb
10
-14
, 20
17
Mar
ch 3
-7, 2
017
Mar
ch 2
4-2
8, 2
017
Ap
ril 2
1-2
5, 2
017
May
12
-16,
20
17
Jun
e 2
-6, 2
017
Jun
e 2
1-2
7, 2
01
7
July
14-
18
, 20
17
Au
g 4
-8, 2
017
Au
g 2
5-2
9, 2
017
Sep
t 1
5-1
9, 2
01
7
Oct
6-1
0, 2
017
Oct
27
-31,
201
7
No
v 1
7-2
1, 2
017
Dec
8-1
2, 2
017
Dec
29,
201
7 -
Jan
2,…
Jan
19-
23
, 20
18
Feb
9-1
3, 2
018
Mar
ch 2
-6, 2
018
Mar
ch 2
3-2
7, 2
018
Ap
ril 1
3-1
7, 2
018
May
4-8
, 20
18
May
25
-29,
20
18
Jun
e 1
5-1
9, 2
01
8
July
6-
10
, 201
8
July
27-
31
, 20
18
Au
gust
15
-21
Sep
t 5
-11
, 20
18
Sep
t 2
6-O
ct 2
, 201
8
Oct
ob
er 1
7-2
3, 2
01
8
No
vem
ber
14-
20
, 20
18
Dec
emb
er 5
-11,
20
18
Dec
emb
er 2
6, 2
01
8-…
Jan
uar
y 1
6-2
2, 2
019
Feb
ruar
y 6
-13
, 20
19
Mar
ch 6
- 1
2, 2
019
Mar
ch 2
6 -
Ap
ril 1
, 20
19
Ap
ril 1
7-2
3, 2
019
May
10
-14,
20
19
May
29
-Ju
ne
5, 2
01
9
Jun
e 2
4-2
5, 2
01
9
July
15-
16
, 20
19
Au
gust
1-5
, 20
19
Au
gust
26
-27
, 201
9
Sep
t 1
6-1
7, 2
01
9
Oct
7-8
, 20
19
Oct
28
-29,
201
9
No
v 1
8-1
9, 2
019
Dec
9-1
0, 2
01
9
Jan
uar
y 1
3-1
4, 2
020
Feb
ruar
y 3
-4, 2
020
Mar
ch 2
-3, 2
020
Mar
ch 3
0-3
1, 2
020
Ap
ril 1
5-2
1, 2
020
May
11
-12,
20
20
Jun
e 1
-2, 2
020
Jun
e 2
2-2
3, 2
020
July
13-
14, 2
020
Au
gust
3-4
, 20
20
Donald Trump’s Weekly ApprovalALL ADULT AMERICANS
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
40%
55%
Total ApproveTotal Disapprove
© 2020 Ipsos 10
Issue ApprovalALL ADULT AMERICANS
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues?
Strongly approve
Somewhatapprove
Lean towards approve
Lean towards
disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Stronglydisapprove
Don’t know
TOTALAPPROVE
TOTALDISAPPROVE
The U.S. Economy 26% 12% 10% 7% 8% 32% 5% 48% 46%
Healthcare Reform 16% 14% 9% 8% 7% 39% 8% 39% 53%
Employment and jobs 25% 14% 10% 7% 8% 31% 5% 49% 46%
Immigration 25% 11% 8% 6% 6% 39% 6% 43% 51%
China 23% 11% 9% 7% 8% 36% 7% 42% 51%
Coronavirus/COVID-19 17% 14% 7% 7% 5% 43% 6% 38% 56%
© 2020 Ipsos 11
March2-3,2020
March9-10,2020
March16-17,2020
March18-24,2020
March30-31,2020
April 6-7, 2020
April13-14,2020
April15-21,2020
April27-29,2020
May 4-5, 2020
May11-12,2020
May18-19,2020
May20-27,2020
June 1-2, 2020
June 8-9, 2020
June10-16,2020
June22-23,2020
June29-30,2020
July 6-7, 2020
July 13-14,
2020
July 15-21,
2020
July 27-28,
2020
August3-4,2020
August10-11,2020
Response to the CoronavirusALL ADULT AMERICANS
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues? Coronavirus/COVID-19:
Total ApproveTotal Disapprove
56%
38%
© 2020 Ipsos 12
All Adults Registered VotersDemocratic
Registered VotersRepublican
Registered VotersIndependent
Registered Voters
Donald Trump 37% 38% 6% 84% 27%
Joe Biden 44% 49% 86% 7% 32%
Some other candidate 7% 6% 4% 4% 18%
I would not vote 5% 1% 0% 1% 4%
Not sure 7% 5% 4% 4% 19%
General ElectionALL ADULT AMERICANS
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?*Order of candidates is randomly rotated in question text
© 2020 Ipsos 13
All Adults Registered VotersDemocratic
Registered VotersRepublican
Registered VotersIndependent
Registered Voters
Donald Trump 37% 38% 6% 84% 27%
Undecided, lean Trump 6% 4% 2% 7% 11%
Undecided, lean Biden 12% 9% 7% 2% 30%
Joe Biden 44% 49% 86% 7% 32%
General Election – Forced ChoiceALL ADULT AMERICANS
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?*If you had to choose, would you say you lean towards supporting Donald Trump or Joe Biden?*+*Order of candidates is randomly rotated in question text
+ Forced choice only asked of those who said “some other candidate”, “I would not vote”, or “not sure” in initial question
© 2020 Ipsos 14
All Adults Registered VotersDemocratic
Registered VotersRepublican
Registered VotersIndependent
Registered Voters
Donald Trump 37% 38% 6% 84% 26%
Joe Biden 43% 47% 83% 6% 32%
Jo Jorgensen 2% 2% 1% 1% 4%
Howie Hawkins 1% 1% 1% 0% 3%
Kanye West 3% 2% 2% 2% 1%
Some other candidate 3% 3% 3% 1% 16%
I would not vote 5% 2% 1% 2% 2%
Not sure 7% 6% 4% 4% 17%
General ElectionALL ADULT AMERICANS
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote?
© 2020 Ipsos 15
March18-24,2020*
March30-31,2020*
April 6-7,
2020*
April13-14,2020
April15-21,2020
April27-29,2020
May 4-5, 2020
May11-12,2020
May18-19,2020
May20-27,2020
June 1-2, 2020
June 8-9, 2020
June10-16,2020
June22-23,2020
June29-30,2020
July 6-7, 2020
July13-14,2020
July15-21,2020
July27-28,2020
August3-4,2020
August10-11,2020
ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden? Order of candidates is randomly rotated in question text
Presidential Ballot Trend
*“If the 2020 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote?” Question text from March 18-April 7, 2020
49%
38%
© 2020 Ipsos 16
March2-3,2020
March16-17,2020
March18-24,2020
March30-31,2020
April 6-7, 2020
April13-14,2020
April15-21,2020
April27-29,2020
May 4-5, 2020
May 11-12,
2020
May 18-19,
2020
May 20-27,
2020
June 1-2, 2020
June 8-9, 2020
June 10-16,
2020
June 22-23,
2020
June 29-30,
2020
July 6-7,2020
July 13-14,
2020
July 15-21,
2020
July 27-28,
2020
August3-4,2020
August10-11,2020
Coronavirus ConcernALL ADULT AMERICANS
How concerned are you personally about the spread of coronavirus/COVID-19?% Somewhat/Very concerned All Americans
Democratic Registered VotersRepublican Registered Voters
93%
80%
66%
© 2020 Ipsos 17
Political Identity
20%
17%
9%
9%
13%
15%
10%
8%
37%
28%
45%
37%
10%
8%
Strong Democrat
Moderate Democrat
Lean Democrat
Lean Republican
Moderate Republican
Strong Republican
Independent
Other/Don't know/Refused
Democrat
Republican
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Other/None/Don't know
Party ID
Party ID w/ Lean
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
With which political party do you most identify?
© 2020 Ipsos 18
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility IntervalsAPPENDIX
The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean ( ത𝑌) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution.
The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior
distribution is also a beta distribution (π(𝜃
𝑦)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base.
There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π (𝜃
𝑦). Since we want only one measure of
precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal
distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately: ഥ𝑌 ∓1
𝑛
© 2020 Ipsos 19
FOR THIS POLL
The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below:
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility IntervalsAPPENDIX
SAMPLE SIZECREDIBILITY INTERVALS
2,000 2.5
1,500 2.9
1,000 3.5
750 4.1
500 5.0
350 6.0
200 7.9
100 11.2
1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 20032 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
© 2020 Ipsos 20
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