ipsos mori political monitor - march 2017source: ipsos mori political monitor base: 1,032 british...
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Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
Ipsos MORIMarch 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS
3Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
43%
30%
6%
4%
13%4%
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends
vote in General Elections = 745. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015
GE.
Voting Intention
40%
31%
6%
4%
14%
5%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +9
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +13
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
4Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep
03
Mar
04
Sep
04
Mar
05
Sep
05
Mar
06
Sep
06
Mar
07
Sep
07
Mar
08
Sep
08
Mar
09
Sep
09
Mar
10
Sep
10
Mar
11
Sep
11
Mar
12
Sep
12
Mar
13
Sep
13
Mar
14
Sep
14
Mar
15
Sep
15
Mar
16
Sep
16
Mar
17
2015 General Election
Miliband
elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: August ‘03 – March ‘17
2005 General Election 2010 General Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Brown
as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 5
SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS
6Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
14%
51%
35%
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Paul Nuttall Tim Farron The Government
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 . Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron were asked on a split sample 517 and 515 British adults 18+
respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
38%
54%
7%
52%39%
8%23%
64%
13%
-2%swing from February
2017
-1.5%swing from February
2017
-9.5%swing from January
2017
0%swing from January
2017
+1%swing from February
2017
+13 Net -41 Net -37 Net -10 Net -16 NetSATISFIED 52% SATISFIED 23% SATISFIED 14% SATISFIED 26% SATISFIED 38%
DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 64% DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 54%
26%
36%
38%
7Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. In February 2016 data for Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron was not collected
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Mar 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep
15
Oct
15
No
v 1
5
Dec
15
Jan
16
Feb
16
Mar
16
Ap
r 16
May 1
6
Ju
n 1
6
Ju
l 16
Au
g 1
6
Sep
16
Oct
16
No
v 1
6
Dec
16
Jan
17
Feb
17
Mar
17
MAY CORBYN
52%
23%26%*
14%*
8Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Net
sati
sfact
ion
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May
9Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2017)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Net
sati
sfact
ion
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
Corbyn
10Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction)
52%39%
8%
March 2017 August 2016 – March 2017
SATISFIED 52%
DISSATISFIED 39%
DON’T KNOW 8%
Net = +13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
11Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 349 Conservative supporters 18+ , 10th – 14th March 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
90%
7%4%
March 2017
SATISFIED 90%
DISSATISFIED 7%
DON’T KNOW 4%
Net = +83
August 2016 – March 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
12Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
23%
64%
13%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
SATISFIED 23%
DISSATISFIED 64%
DON’T KNOW 13%
Net = -41
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
March 2017 September 2015 – March 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
13Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
42%
52%
6%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 52%
DON’T KNOW 6%
Net = -10
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 270 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
March 2017 September 2015 – March 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
14Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
26%
36%
38%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
Mar-
17
SATISFIED 26%
DISSATISFIED 36%
DON’T KNOW 38%
Net = -10
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 515 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
March 2017 September 2015 – March 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
15Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PAUL NUTTALL IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
UKIP, THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 517 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Paul Nuttall(satisfaction)
January 2017
18%
36%
46%
SATISFIED 18%
DISSATISFIED 36%
DON’T KNOW 46%
Net = -18
March 2017
14%
51%
35% SATISFIED 14%
DISSATISFIED 51%
DON’T KNOW 35%
Net = -37
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 16
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM
17Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
22%
24%
50%
4%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Au
g-0
4
Feb
-05
Au
g-0
5
Mar-
06
Oct
-06
Jun
-07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Feb
-11
Au
g-1
1
Feb
-12
Au
g-1
2
Feb
-13
Au
g-1
3
Feb
-14
Au
g-1
4
Feb
-15
Sep
-15
Mar-
16
Sep
-16
Mar-
17
IMPROVE 22%
STAY THE SAME 24%
GET WORSE 50%
DON’T KNOW 4%
EOI = -28
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Economic Optimism Index
March 2017
18Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jul 1997
No
v 1
997
Mar
1998
Jul 1998
No
v 1
998
Mar
1999
Jul 1999
No
v 1
999
Mar
2000
Jul 2000
No
v 2
000
Mar
2001
Jul 2001
No
v 2
001
Mar
2002
Jul 2002
No
v 2
002
Mar
2003
Jul 2003
No
v 2
003
Mar
2004
Jul 2004
No
v 2
004
Mar
2005
Jul 2005
No
v 2
005
Mar
2006
Jul 2006
No
v 2
006
Mar
2007
Jul 2007
No
v 2
007
Mar
2008
Jul 2008
No
v 2
008
Mar
2009
Jul 2009
No
v 2
009
Mar
2010
Jul 2010
No
v 2
010
Mar
2011
Jul 2011
No
v 2
011
Mar
2012
Jul 2012
No
v 2
012
Mar
2013
Jul 2013
No
v 2
013
Mar
2014
Jul 2014
No
v 2
014
Mar
2015
Jul 2015
No
v 2
015
Mar
2016
Jul 2016
No
v 2
016
Mar
2017
-28
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Budget
20Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
ON BALANCE DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: IN THE LONG TERM,
THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF BRITAIN’S ECONOMY
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Does the government have the right policies for
47
39
47
49
50
46
53
48
43
44
Mar-12
Mar-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
AGREE DISAGREE
Britain’s economy?
21Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
34%
46%
20%
CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS
DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Phillip Hammond (satisfaction)
SATISFIED 34%
DISSATISFIED 46%
DON’T KNOW 20%
Net = -12
39%
28%
34%SATISFIED 39%
DISSATISFIED 28%
DON’T KNOW 34%
Net = +11
March 2017 November 2016
22Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
66%
44%
67%
52%
45% 45%
34%
39%
44%42%
37%39%
36%37%
18%
31%
17%
24%
28%
38%
34%
52%
44%
56%
45%
42%
48%
52%
34%
41%
55%57%
48%46%
49%47%
42%
32%
28%
36%
40%
36%38%
28%27%
47%
43%44%
35%
40%
27%
39%
34%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ma
r-76
Ma
r-77
Ap
r-7
8
Jul-
80
Ma
r-82
Jun
-83
Ma
r-85
Ma
r-86
Ma
r-87
Ma
r-88
Ma
r-89
Ma
r-90
Ma
r-91
Ma
r-92
Ma
r-93
Dec-9
3
De
c-9
4
No
v-9
5
De
c-9
5
Nov-9
6
De
c-9
6
Jul-
97
Fe
b-9
8
Ma
r-98
Ma
r-99
Fe
b-0
0
Ma
r-00
Jul-
00
Se
p-0
0
No
v-0
0
Ma
r-01
Ap
r-0
2
Ap
r-0
3
Ma
r-04
No
v-0
5
Fe
b-0
6
De
c-0
6
Ap
r-0
7
Ma
r-08
Ma
r-10
Jun
-10
Ma
r-11
Dec-1
1
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
r-15
Jul-
15
No
v-1
5
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-16
No
v-1
6
Ma
r-17
CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS
DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Satisfaction with the Chancellor - trends
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
% saying ‘satisfied’Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne Hammond
23Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS 2017 BUDGET THIS WEEK/ LAST WEEK.
FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD
THING OR A BAD THING….?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Budget reaction
33
38
39
42
For you personally
For the country
GOOD THING BAD THING
24Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS 2017 BUDGET THIS WEEK/ LAST WEEK.
FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD
THING OR A BAD THING….?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Budget reaction
33
35
45
43
25
39
40
38
35
60
Mar-17
Mar-16
Jul-15
Apr-14
Apr-12
GOOD THING BAD THING
For you personally
25Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS 2017 BUDGET THIS WEEK/ LAST WEEK.
FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD
THING OR A BAD THING….?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017
Budget reaction
GOOD THING BAD THING
For the country
38
30
46
48
33
42
53
44
33
53
Mar-17
Mar-16
Jul-15
Apr-14
Apr-12
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
26
March 2017POLITICAL MONITOR