ipsos’ 1st quarter spec (social, political, economic and cultural) survey: 9th media release:...
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SPEC Barometer: Election and Political IssuesPress Release: General Media (9th Release of March-April Survey)
Prepared by: Ipsos
Release date: 30th May 2015
Election Issues
Knowledge of next election date
Preference for next election date
Awareness of any voter registration
ICC Issues
Outcome preferences regarding Ruto-Sang case
Views on proposed Kenya withdrawal from ICC
Views on proposed establishment of African Human Rights Court
Political Issues: Deaths of Prominent People
Awareness of deaths of prominent people
Preference for revelation of cause of death
Political Issues: Political Party/Coalition Alignment
Political Issues: Raila Odinga’s Public Future
Preference among three options2
Contents
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Methodology
Methodology
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Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015
Sample Size 1,964
Sampling methodologyRandom, Multi-stage stratified using PPS(proportionate to population size)
Universe
Data collectionmethodology
Sampling error
Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Poll funding Ipsos Limited
Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above livingin Urban and Rural areas
+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
Sample Structure Statistics
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RegionSample Frame statistics
(April 2015)*Weighted data
%Population Census as at 2009
Adults (18 years +)%
Central 257 13 2,548,038 13
Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9
Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15
Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10
North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5
Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13
Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25
Western 200 10 1,980,090 10
TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100
Quality Control Measures
For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout
Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at theirhouseholds to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).
After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: anindependent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of therespondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the saidrespondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).
Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes andlongitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of theinterviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.
Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensureconformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.
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Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highestpossible integrity of obtained results/data
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Respondents’
Demographic Profile:
28%
2%
30%
8%
11%
9%
10%
1%
1%
9%
22%
28%
23%
4%
4%
2%
5%
1%
2%
Catholic
Catholic Charismatic
Mainstream Protestant (ACK,…
SDA
Evangelical
Other Christian
Muslim
Refused To Answer/None
No religion
Public Sector wages/salary
Private sector wages /salary
Gains from self employment/…
Agriculture (own/household farm)
Livestock
Given money by others
Pension from previous employment
Other
Don’t Know
Refused To Answer
Demographic Profile
10%
9%
13%
25%
5%
15%
13%
10%
51%
49%
28%
29%
18%
25%
37%
63%
100%
Nairobi
Coast
Nyanza
Rift Valley
North Eastern
Eastern
Central
Western
Female
Male
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45+
Urban
Rural
Kenyans
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Region
Gender
Age
Setting
Religion
Nationality
Source of Household Income
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Demographic Profile
4%
14%
19%
14%
26%
8%
7%
3%
3%
1%
42%
33%
11%
4%
1%
1%
0%
2%
7%
No formal education
Some primary education
Primary education completed
Some secondary education
Secondary education completed
Some middle level college (not…
Completed mid-level college (Not…
Some University education
University education completed
Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)
Less than 10,000
10,001 – 25,000
25,001 – 40,000
40,001 – 55,000
55,001 – 75,000
75,001 – 100,000
100,001 and above
Has No income
RTA/DK
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Level of Education
Monthly Household Income (ALLmembers of the Household)
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Demographic Profile
41%
18%
11%
10%
7%
5%
5%
2%
1%
Self-Employed
Unemployed
Employed in the private sector
Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)
Casual labour
Employed in the public sector
Student
Retired
Other
10
Employment Status
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
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Election Issues
% Who Know the Date of the Next Election (August, 2017):by Total, Setting, Gender
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78%80%
76%
81%
74%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235) Male (n=956) Female (n=1,008)
% Who Know Date of the Next Election (August, 2017): by Region
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89%84%
80% 79%
73%70% 70%
56%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Central(n=257)
Rift Valley(n=484)
Eastern(n=293)
Nyanza(n=257)
Nairobi(n=206)
Coast(n=173)
NorthEastern(n=94)
Western(n=200)
% Who Support Changing the Date of the Next Election fromAugust to December, 2017: by Total, Setting, Gender and MainPolitical Party/Coalition
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64% 65% 64% 66%63%
66% 67%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total(n=1,964)
Urban (n=729) Rural(n=1,235)
Male (n=956) Female(n=1,008)
CORDSupporters
(n=623)
JubileeSupporters
(867)
% Who Support Changing the Date of the Next Election fromAugust to December, 2017: by Region
15
80%
71%68%
64%
58% 56%53%
47%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Nyanza(n=257)
Rift Valley(n=484)
Central(n=257)
Nairobi(n=206)
NorthEastern(n=94)
Western(n=200)
Eastern(n=293)
Coast(n=173)
% Aware of Any Voter Registration in Their Locality Since LastElection: by Total, Setting, Gender, Main Political Party/Coalition
16
20%22%
18%
22%
17%
21% 22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Total(n=1,964)
Urban(n=729)
Rural(n=1,235)
Male (n=956) Female(n=1,008)
CORDSupporters
(n=623)
JubileeSupporters
(n=867)
% Aware of Any Voter Registration in Their Locality Since LastElection: by Region
17
37%
27% 27%
20%17% 17%
15%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
NorthEastern(n=94)
Central(n=257)
Coast(n=173)
Nairobi(n=206)
Rift Valley(n=484)
Nyanza(n=257)
Eastern(n=293)
Western(n=200)
“Do you think voters will have enough confidence in the IEBC tomanage the next elections?”: by Total, Setting, Gender, MainPolitical Party/Coalition
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42%
35%
46%43% 42%
21%
61%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total(n=1,964)
Urban (n=729) Rural(n=1,235)
Male (n=956) Female(n=1,008)
CORDSupporters
(n=623)
JubileeSupporters
(n=867)
% saying “YES”
“Do you think voters will have enough confidence in the IEBC tomanage the next elections?”: by Region
19
60%56%
53%48%
39%
28% 26%22%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Central(n=257)
NorthEastern(n=94)
Rift Valley(n=484)
Coast(n=173)
Eastern(n=293)
Nairobi(n=206)
Western(n=200)
Nyanza(n=257)
% saying “YES”
Kenyan ICC Casesand other ICC Issues
20
“What would you like to happen to the Ruto and Sang’ case?”
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48%
33%
8%
5%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
It should be terminated/dropped completely
It should continue at the ICC as it is now
It should continue at the ICC but without thepresence of the accused
Not sure
It should be deferred for a year
There should be a fair trial
It should be referred to Kenyan courts
RTA
1) 88% of Kenyans correctlymentioned William Ruto ascurrently being tried at the ICC
2) 76% of Kenyans correctlymentioned Joshua rap Sang’Ruto as currently being tried atthe ICC
Base: Those aware of either William Ruto, Joshua arap Sang’ orboth as facing trial at the ICC (n=1,735)
“Whatever your view about this case….?”
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26% 27%24%
26%
33% 33%
16%14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
How likely do you think it is that the Rutocase will end in his conviction?
How likely do you think it is that there willbe any violence if Ruto is convicted?
Certainly will Possibly will Certainly NOT Not sure
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
“Do you support the proposal for Kenya to withdraw from theICC?”
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50%
76%
69%
59%
50%
44%41%
32%
24%
50%
24%
31%
41%
50%
56%59%
68%
76%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total(n=1,964)
Central(n=257)
NorthEastern(n=94)
Rift Valley(n=484)
Eastern(n=293)
Nairobi(n=206)
Western(n=200)
Nyanza(n=257)
Coast(n=173)
YES NO
“Do you support/oppose the proposal by the African Union toestablish an African Human rights court as a substitute for theICC?”
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54%
32%
48%
43%
49%53%
62% 63%
79%
40%
62%
50%48%
45%40%
34%30%
17%
6% 6%3%
9%6% 7% 5% 7%
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total(n=1,964)
Nyanza(n=257)
Nairobi(n=206)
Western(n=200)
Coast(n=173)
Eastern(n=293)
Rift Valley(n=484)
NorthEastern(n=94)
Central(n=257)
Support Oppose Not sure
25
Political Issues:
Deaths of ProminentPeople
“Which prominent people have died or been killed in recent months thatyou know of?” (MULTIPLE RESPONSE)
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55%
43%
40%
6%
4%
1%
1%
17%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Hon. Muchai
Otieno Kajwang’
Fidel Odinga
Mutula Kilonzo
George Saitoti
Orwa Ojode
Meshack Yebei
Can't remember/None/Don't Know
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
“Do you think the cause of death in such cases should be revealedto the public?” (By Total)
YES, 72%
NO, 17% Not Sure, 10%
27Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
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Political Issues:
Political Party/
Coalition Alignment
“Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?”(By Coalitions Showing Affiliated Parties)
29
18%
11%9%
4%1%
20%
6% 5%1% 1% 1% 1%
4%
16%
Jubilee affiliated parties =43% CORD affiliatedparties=32%
Others=3%
Shy=20%
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
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Political Issues:
Raila’s Political Future
“Which of the following regarding Raila Odinga's future is closestto your view?” (By Total, CORD vs. Jubilee Supporters)
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33%
8%
53%
27%24%
29%34%
67%
14%
5%1% 3%
Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=624) Jubilee Supporters (n=871)
He should retire from politics completely
He should continue to lead/work with his political party but should not contest the next election
He should remain active in his party and even contest the presidency in the next election if hewantsNot Sure/NR
“Which of the following regarding Raila Odinga's future is closestto your view?” (Trend Analysis)
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36%39%
35%
40%37%
42%
33%
28% 25% 24%21%
26%25%
27%
32%32%
36%
35% 34%
24%
34%
4% 4%6%
4% 4%8%
5%
June 2013(n=2,000)
November 2013(n=2,060)
February 2014(n=2,031)
May 2014(n=2,059)
September2014 (n=2,021)
November 2014(n=2,005)
April (n=1,964)
He should retire from politics completely
He should continue to lead/work with his political party but should not contest the next election
He should remain active in his party and even contest the presidency in the next election if hewantsNot Sure/No Response
Perceived Confidence in the IEBC to Manage the Next GeneralElection by 3 Preferences Regarding Raila’s Future
56%
45%
27%
44%
55%
73%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Raila should retire from politicscompletely (N=657)
Raila should continue tolead/work with his political
party but not contest any seatin the future (N=540)
Raila should remain active inhis party and even contest thepresidency again in 2017 if he
wants to (N=660)
YES NO
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“Do you think voters will have enough confidence in theIEBC to manage the next general election?”
For further information contact:Dr Tom WolfSocial Political [email protected]
Victor RatengProject Manager - Opinion [email protected]
Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe
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