ipm overview
DESCRIPTION
IPM Overview. Elliot Lieberman U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington, D.C. 20460. Documentation on Web. www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa-ipm. What is IPM?. The Integrated Planning Model (IPM) is a tool developed by ICF Consulting and used by EPA for policy analysis. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
IPM Overview
Elliot LiebermanU.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
Documentation on Web
www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa-ipm
What is IPM?
The Integrated Planning Model (IPM) is a tool developed by ICF Consulting and used by EPA for policy analysis.
IPM is a long-term capacity expansion and production costing model for analyzing the electric power sector.
It is a multi-regional, deterministic, dynamic linear programming model.
IPM finds the least-cost solution to meeting electricity demand subject to environmental, transmission, fuel, reserve margin, and other system operating constraints.
Linear Program Advantages
Finds optimal solution
Comprehensive, integrated approach
Bottom-up detail
– Allows fine grain parameter variations
– Analysis based on detailed disaggregate information
Typical IPM Constraints and Variables
Electricity Demand Constraints Reserve Margin Constraints Environmental Constraints Transmission Constraints Fuel Constraints Other Operational Constraints
Model plants– Existing Units– Planned/Committed Units– Potential Units
Retrofit options Repowerings and
retirements
140,225 Constraints 1,980,251 Variables
(x load segments x coal or fuel types x run years x seasons)
Model Regions
Reserve Margin Assumptions
Reserve margin is a measure of the system’s generating capability above the amount required to meet peak load requirements.
Planning Reserve Margins
Generating Resources
Existing units Planned/committed units New potential units that the model can build Repowerings, relicensings, and retirements
Categories represented
Potential Units
Pulverized Coal Integrated Gasification
Combined Cycle Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Nuclear
Biomass Gasification Combined Cycle
Wind Solar Geothermal Landfill gas Fuel cells
Emission Control Technologies
SO2 Scrubbers– Limestone Forced Oxidation (LSFO)– Magnesium Enhanced Lime (MEL)– Lime Spray Dryer (LSD)
NOx Post-Combustion Controls
– Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)– Selective Non-catalytic Reduction (SNCR)– Gas Reburn
Mercury Removal– Activated Carbon Injection (ACI)– By-product of SO2, NOx, and particulate
controls
Other– Combustion Optimization– Biomass cofiring
First Stage Retrofit Assignment Scheme in EPA Base Case 2000
Run Year Mapping in EPA Base Case 2000
Model Plant Aggregation
Categories Used in Aggregation Scheme Model Region Unit Technology Type Fuel Demand Region Environmental Regulations
– NOx SIP Call Participation– State Specific Regulations in CT, MO and TX
State– Texas– Connecticut– Missouri
Unit Configuration– Boiler Type– Firing Type– SO2 Pollution Control
– NOx Pollution Control– Particulate Matter Control
Heat Rate– Low Efficiency Group– Mid Efficiency Groups– High Efficiency Group
Size– Coal Steam Units
» Less than 25 MW» From 25 MW to less than 100 MW» 100 MW or greater
– Non-coal fossil units and other non-coal emitting units» Less 25 MW» 25 MW or greater
Unit ID Capacity(MW)
Heat Rate(Btu/kWh)
NOx Rate(lbs/Mmbtu)
SO2 Rate(lbs/MMBtu)
Hg EMFBit
Hg EMFSub Bit
ExistingControls
Model Plant 11091_B_2 300 10475 0.46 0.84 0.6 0.85 Cold-side ESP
7343_B_4 624 10108 0.46 0.83 0.6 0.85 Cold-side ESP
Model Plant 22442_B_4 740 9661 0.46 0.47 0.05 0.3 Fabric Filter + Wet
Scrubber2442_B_5 740 9661 0.68 0.47 0.05 0.3 Fabric Filter + Wet
Scrubber
Model Plant 36082_B_1 675 9188 0.42 0.58 0.05 0.05 Cold-side ESP +
SCR + WetScrubber
Typical Model Plants
Financial Assumptions
Financial Assumptions
Discount Rate– Represents the time value of money– Allows for inter-temporal analysis
Capital Charge Rate– Allows annualized capital payments to be
calculated for an investment
Discount Rate
Capital structure Pre-tax debt rate Post-tax equity rate
Key parameters considered:
Capital Charge Rate
Capital structure Pre-tax debt rate (or interest cost) Debt life Post-tax return on equity Taxes and insurance Depreciation schedule Book life
Key parameters considered:
Factors Affecting the FinancingOf Different Technologies
Risk profile– Medium risk– High risk
Financing scheme– Project financing– Corporate financing
Capital Charge Rates and Discount Rates
Investment Technology
CapitalChargeRate*
DiscountRate
FinancingScheme
RiskProfile
Environmental Retrofits 12.0% 5.34% Corporate
MediumRepowering of Existing Units 12.9% 6.14%
Project
Coal (including IGCC) 12.9% 6.14%Combined Cycle 12.9% 6.14%Combustion Turbine 13.4% 6.74%
HighRenewable GenerationTechnologies 13.4% 6.74%
Advanced Nuclear 13.4% 6.74%*30-year book life assumed
Capital Charge Rates and Discount Rates
Investment Technology
CapitalChargeRate*
DiscountRate
FinancingScheme
RiskProfile
Environmental Retrofits 12.0% 5.34% Corporate
MediumRepowering of Existing Units 12.9% 6.14%
Project
Coal (including IGCC) 12.9% 6.14%Combined Cycle 12.9% 6.14%Combustion Turbine 13.4% 6.74%
HighRenewable GenerationTechnologies 13.4% 6.74%
Advanced Nuclear 13.4% 6.74%*30-year book life assumed