ipcc working group ii: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability climate change and the ipcc fourth...

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Climate Change and the IPCC Fourth Assessment

Jean PalutikofHead, Technical Support UnitWorking Group IIIPCCMet Office, Exeter, UK


What is the greenhouse effect?


What is our contribution?


Other gases are important as well as CO2


What is the evidence for climate change?


And from the longer record?


What is the expected impact on climate?

Change in global surface temperature

Change in global mean sea level


And at the regional scale?


What tools do we have available?


Pattern of annual average temperature change, 2080s relative to present day for A1F1 (left) and B2 (right) emissions scenarios


A2a scenario

A2a

B2a

A2a:– Longer by 15-30

days in centre and south east

– 10 days shorter over northern Europe

B2a:– Smaller changes than

A2a– wetter Eastern Med.

10oW 0o 10oE 20oE 30oE 40oE 30oN

35oN

40oN

45oN

50oN

-10

0

10

20

30


35oN

40oN

45oN

50oN

-10

0

10

20

30

Precipitation indices: maximum length of dry spell per year (2070-99 minus 1961-90)


Precipitation indices: max. 5-day running total(2070-99 minus 1961-90)

A2a scenario

A2a:– Lower intensity, by

10-20 mm, in future, particularly in west

– Increased intensity in centre and Adriatic

B2a:– Smaller changes

than A2a– Clearly higher

intensity in Italy


35oN

40oN

45oN

50oN

-40

-20

0

20

40


35oN

40oN

45oN

50oN

-40

-20

0

20

40


What are the implications for European urban areas?


Impacts

• Impacts of more intense rainfall on storm drains/sewers

• Heat stress

• Changes in circulation and the implications for air pollution

• Coastal cities and tidal surge

• Implications of increased wind storm


All cause death rate• Strongest associations with temperature

are between August and March

• In November, 64% of the variance in the death rate is explained by temperature

• The reduction in the death rate due to a 1 degC increase in temperature and a 10mm decrease in rainfall is in the range 1-3%

y = 53.259x2 - 2167.6x + 69562R2 = 0.67

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

°C

nu

mb

er

of

death

s

Deaths per day and mean temperatures in July

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480

1500

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Mean temperature in degrees C.

Dea

ths

per d

ay

All months r2 = 0.67


Adaptation

• Through design:– Of urban spaces– Of buildings

• Through behaviour– Use of the outdoor environment– Transport policies– Air conditioning


Mitigation activities

• Energy use– Reduction in demand– Use of renewables

• Fuel-efficient transport systems


What about surprises/abrupt climate change?

• Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

• Melting of the Greenland ice cap

• Collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

• Of course, the real surprises are the ones we haven’t thought of


Is there controversy?


The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change

• To assess the scientific literature on climate change

• To support the UNFCCC• Three Working Groups

– Science– Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability– Mitigation and Policy

• Now carrying out the Fourth Assessment• To report in 2007


Structure of WGII• Two Co-Chairs:

– Martin Parry, UK– Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina

• Six Vice-Chairs• One TSU with four full-time staff• Writing team of around 200 CLAs, LAs and REs, plus

Contributing Authors• Four Lead Author Meetings


Working Group II AR4Summary for Policymakers + Technical Summary Introduction1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed

systems II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future

conditions3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement, and society8. Human health III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: REGIONS 9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin

America 14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small IslandsIV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability


Supposing you wanted to contribute to the process

• The IPCC assesses the literature• It seeks to be inclusive and consensual• The preference is for fully refereed

publications• There are procedures to deal with ‘grey

literature’• Submissions of literature and/or text can be

made to the appropriate CLA, the Co-Chairs or the TSU, for consideration


The message from IPCC TAR• Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to

human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to alter our climate

• There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities

• Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composion throughout the 21st century

• Global temperatures and sea level are projected to rise under all IPCC SRES scenarios

• Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries

• See www.ipcc.ch


What will be the principal messages of the AR4?

ipcc working group ii: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability climate change and the ipcc fourth...

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