ipcc projection (ar 4, 2007) the annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends in bangladesh....
Post on 19-Dec-2015
215 views
TRANSCRIPT
IPCC Projection (AR 4, 2007)
• The annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends in Bangladesh. Decadal rain anomalies are above long term averages since 1960s.
• Serious and recurring floods have taken place during 2002, 2003, and 2004. Cyclones originating from the Bay of Bengal have been noted to decrease since 1970 but the intensity has increased.
IPCC Projection (AR 4, 2007)
• Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels during the dry season.
• The precipitation decline and droughts has resulted in the drying up of wetlands and severe degradation of ecosystems.
Summary of Climate Change induced disasters
• Increase of intensity and duration of floods, water logging, flash flood.
• Increase of moisture stress (droughts)• Intensified storm surge, wave heights, erratic
precipitation• Salinity intrusion (100 km inside the country
during dry season)• Slow-onset impacts (salinization, dryness,
ecosystem degradation etc)• Sea Level rise up to 69 cm.
Too much water during monsoon More Floods
F l_ p r o n e .s h pS e v e r e R iv e r F lo o d i n gM o d e r a te R i v e r F l o o d in gL o w R i v e r F l o o d i n gS e v e r e F la s h F l o o d i n gM o d e r a te F l a s h F l o o d in gL o w F la s h F l o o d i n gS e v e r e T i d a l S u r g eM o d e r a te T id a l S u r g eN o t F lo o d P r o n e
Water shortage during dry periodsMore Drought
EXISTING DROUGHT
DROUGHT CLASSES (RABI SEASON)
Very Severe Drought
Severe Drought
Moderate Drought
Less Moderate Drought
Slight Drought
Very Slight to Nil
Severe & Moderate
Moderate & Less Moderate
Sunderbans
Forest
ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2030
ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2075
PRECIS Simulation at BUET
• Simulated for period of 1961-1990 by Dr. Nazrul Islam, Physics department, BUET
• Calibrated with observed rainfall and temperature data (1961-1990)
• Verification of model using 1991-2007 data
• Future scenarios will be generated.
Mean Rainfall and Temperature (1961-1990)
Rainfall Temperature
8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 22 0 . 6
2 1 . 6
2 2 . 6
2 3 . 6
2 4 . 6
2 5 . 6
2 6 . 6
LO NGI T UDE (E)
LAT
ITU
DE
(N)
PR EC IS R ain fa ll JJAS 1961-90
m m /d
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 22 0 . 6
2 1 . 6
2 2 . 6
2 3 . 6
2 4 . 6
2 5 . 6
2 6 . 6
LO NGI T UDE (E)
LAT
ITU
DE
(N)
O bserved R ainfa ll JJAS 1961-90
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
m m /d
MODEL OBSERVATION
Comparison of results (1961-1990)
Monthly Temperature (1960-1990)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Tem
pera
ture
(C
)
Obs Temp_1961-1990
blsula Temp_1961-1990
Plan of using PRECIS
Component 1: knowledge Center – Creating knowledge base and database of climate
change scenarios in regional scale. – Understanding and interpretation of model results.
Building awareness of the people for future climate induced risks.
– House of various climate models and outputs.– Training of Trainers (TOT) for building capacity of the
organization through organizing regional and local workshops and seminars.
Plan of using PRECIS
• Component-2: Research
– Use of PRECIS results for Agriculture, Fisheries and other sectors.
– Forecasting of disasters such as flood and cyclone
– Coupling of hydrological and climate models
In 2008, Bangladesh University and Engineering Technology (BUET) has
establish a Climate Change Study Cell
The vision of the Climate The vision of the Climate Change Study Cell is to Change Study Cell is to establish itself as the establish itself as the premier knowledge center premier knowledge center on climate change risk and on climate change risk and adaptation for Bangladesh.adaptation for Bangladesh.
Mission of the cell To improve knowledge about climate change and
associated risk to Bangladesh;
To increase awareness of the planners, policy makers about the effects of climate change;
To become institutional home for climate modeling and predicting future scenarios;
To strengthen capacity of professionals in climate change modeling; and
To share knowledge and expertise with other organizations.
Activities
Following list of activities has been proposed for this cell. Research Short coursesWorkshopSeminarAdvisory ServicesConferencePublications of JournalsClimate change Database Dissemination of information through web
