IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Synthesis Report, Topic 2:

Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts

Chris Field

Katharine Mach

IPCC WGII

EMISSIONS and Land-use Change

IMPACTS

Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1

2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089

20

40

60

80

100

PERCEN

TAG

E O

F

YIE

LD

PRO

JECTIO

NS

0 2090-2109

0 – -5%

-5 – -10%

-10 – -25%

-25 – -50%

-50 – -100%

50 – 100%

25 – 50%

10 – 25%

5 – 10%

0 – 5%

Range of Yield Change

Increase in Yield

Decrease in Yield

CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B)

<50% -21 – 50% -6 – 20% -1 – 5% No data 0 – 4% 5 – 19% 20 – 49% 50 – 100% >100%

Risk Level with Current Adaptation

Risk Level

Very Low Med

Very High

4°C

2°C

Present

Long Term (2080-2100)

Near Term (2030-2040)

Assessing risk

Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk

Risk Level with High Adaptation

Risk Level with Current Adaptation

Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk

Risk Level with High Adaptation

Risk-Level Very Low Med

Very High

4°C 2°C

Present

Long Term (2080-2100)

Near Term (2030-2040)

COASTS

LIVELIHOODS

SMALL ISLANDS

WATER

FOOD

HEALTH

AFRICA

ASIA

FLOODS HEAT DROUGHT

HEAT

FLOODS EUROPE

WATER

FLOODS COASTS

AUSTRALASIA

CORALS

WILDFIRES HEAT FLOODS

NORTH AMERICA

WATER

FOOD

CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA

HEALTH

FISHERIES

CORALS

COASTS

THE OCEAN

RATE OF CHANGE ECOSYSTEMS POLAR REGIONS

HEALTH

Based on WGII Box SPM 2 Table 1

Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1

CLIMATE CHANGE

REDUCING AND MANAGING RISKS