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Chris Field & Katharine Mach IPCC Working Group II
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE
UNDERSTANDING, MANAGING, & REDUCING RISKS
EMISSIONS and Land-use Change
IMPACTS
Warming over the past century
Based on WGII Figure SPM 4
Warming since 1970 Change in Energy Content (1021 Joule)
1980 1990 2000 2010
300
200
0
100
1970
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
300
200
100
0
-100
Based on WGI Box 3.1 Figure 1
Worldwide Effects
Human influence on the climate system is clear
atmosphere, land, ocean
extreme events
water cycle
global mean sea level
sea ice, glaciers, ice sheets
7
GHG EMISSIONS GROWTH HAS ACCELERATED DESPITE REDUCTION EFFORTS
GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades.
Based on WGIII Figure SPM 1
GHG emissions rising with growth in GDP and population
9
Based on WGIII Figure SPM 3
ARE WIDESPREAD
OBSERVED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND CONSEQUENTIAL
\
AROUND THE WORLD
VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE
IN DIFFERENT WAYS
VULNERABLE AND EXPOSED
PEOPLE, SOCIETIES, AND ECOSYSTEMS AROUND THE WORLD
ALREADY OCCURRING ADAPTATION IS
ALREADY OCCURRING ADAPTATION IS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF
INCREASING MAGNITUDES OF WARMING INCREASE
SEVERE AND PERVASIVE IMPACTS
Warming over the 21st century
Based on WGII Figure SPM 4
Warming over the 21st century
1901-2012
End of 21st century
Based on WGII Figure SPM 4
2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089
20
40
60
80
100
PERCEN
TAG
E O
F YI
ELD
PRO
JECTI
ON
S
0 2090-2109
0 – -5%
-5 – -10%
-10 – -25%
-25 – -50%
-50 – -100%
50 – 100%
25 – 50%
10 – 25%
5 – 10%
0 – 5%
Range of Yield Change
Increase in Yield
Decrease in Yield
Assessing risk
Based on WGII Box SPM 2 Table 1
North America
A global perspective on risks
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
Small-scale, unique, nonmarket
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
Extremes
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
Unfairness of impacts • Uneveness spatially and temporally
• Challenges of resolution
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
An aggregate view • Next generation of economic estimates?
• Next generation of non-economic estimates?
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
Abrupt and irreversible changes
• Long timeframes, large uncertainties
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
LIMITING WARMING TO 2°C INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL TECHNOLOGICAL, ECONOMIC AND INSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGES
Stabilizing temperature (eventually) requires zero net emissions – regardless of the warming limit chosen
35
Based on WGIII Figure SPM 4
36
~3°C
Based on WGIII Figure SPM 4
Stabilizing temperature (eventually) requires zero net emissions – regardless of the warming limit chosen
Stabilizing temperature (eventually) requires zero net emissions – regardless of the warming limit chosen
38
INCREASING FRACTION OF EMISSIONS COVERED BY MITIGATION PLANS AND STRATEGIES
Increase in national and sub-national mitigation policies
39
Based on WGIII Figures 15.1 and 13.3
EFFECTIVE CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSES A MORE VIBRANT WORLD
Substantial emissions reductions linked to new investments
42
Based on WGIII Figure SPM 9
CLIMATE CHANGE
UNDERSTANDING, MANAGING, & REDUCING RISKS
