Rapid reduction in CO2 emissions (RCP 2.6)

Burn all available fossil fuel reserves (RCP 8,5)

Average projected surface temperature change for 2081-2100 relative to surface temperature for 1986-2005 for emission scenarios RCP2.6and RCP8.5

Major impacts by continent

Major impacts by continent

Major impacts in North America

Major impacts in North America (cont.)

Major impacts by region

Projected increases and decreases of crop yields for successive 20 year periods in 21st century (for a variety of emission scenarios)

As CO2 and temperature increase during 21st century, fewer crops will increase yields (and those increases will be smaller); while more crops will decrease yields (and those decreases will be larger).

Paths to the future will involve multiple decision points that will take into account changing conditions that cannot be accurately foreseen. Putting a price on carbon will guide us towards a higher resilience, lower risk future.

What we have to deal with... our recent history of greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation (CO2 FOLU))

Analysis of the recent history of CO2 emissions in terms of Carbon Intensity of Energy, Population, Energy Intensity of GDP, and GDP Per Capita. Rate of emissions increase was decreasing due primarily to reduction of Energy Intensity of GDP until 2001-2010 when increased power generation in developing world (China and India) changed the trend.

Projection of changes in investment flows for 2010 to 2029 (relative to average baseline investment levels) for mitigation scenarios that stabilize CO2-equivalent concentrations at approximately 430-530 ppm. Carbon fee and dividend would be a useful component of such mitigation scenarios.

Note the reduction in investment in extraction of fossil fuels, and the large increase in investment in Energy Efficiency, and other increases in investment in Renewables, Nuclear, and Power Plants with CCS (Carbon Capture and Sequestration)

Table showing the likelihood of keeping global surface temperature change below various levels for different emissions scenarios. If we keep the CO2-equivalent concentration at or below 450 ppm, it is likely that the global surface temperature change over the 21st century relative to the temperature for 1850-1900 will be below 2 degrees C.

Table of global mitigation costs for different projected CO2-equivalent concentrations in 2100. Boxed figures are cumulative reduction of economic growth through 2100 (4.8%) and average annual reduction of growth (0.06%) due to pursuit of mitigation of CO2-eq to 450 ppm in 2100.