investors’ update after vv17avio-data.teleborsa.it/2020/vv17-investors-update...2020/11/27 ·...
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AVIO SpA- All rights reserved – subject to the restrictions of last page.
Investors’ update after VV1727 November 2020
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2
Update on VV17 flight anomaly – Established facts and ongoing investigation
3
(*) Established on 18 November 2020, chaired by ESA and Arianespace with participation of CNES and AvioSOURCE: Arianespace, ESA
Established facts
• 1st stage (P80) nominal propulsion and separation
• 2nd stage (Z23) nominal propulsion and separation
• 3rd stage (Z9) nominal propulsion and separation
• 4th stage (AVUM) nominal ignition and propulsion
• At ~8:00 min. (242km altitude) degradation of trajectoryobserved, thrust vector control stroke anomaly
• At ~17:48 min. loss of telemetry
• At ~28:00 min. estimated splashdown
Root Cause Early Investigation
• Initial analyses point out to an integration mistake in the electrical actuation system of the 4th stage (AVUM)
• Independent Inquiry Commission setup* to:
• Verify root cause of anomaly
• Define corrective actions for return-to-flight
• Maintain confidentiality until completion of investigation(targeted by 15th December)
P80
Z9
Z23
AVUM
The way forward
4
• Support the Independent Inquiry Commission – conclusion targeted by 15th December
• Timely return-to-flight key priority for all involved stakeholders: Customers, Avio, Arianespace, ESA, CNES
• 2021 Vega manifest to be updated once corrective actions will be finalized by the Independent Inquiry Commission
• Continue in parallel the various development streams: • Vega C: Qualification Review kick-off imminent - preparing for Maiden Flight• Space Rider: First tranche of contract approved this week• Vega E: First tranche of contract approved this week• Space Exploration Propulsion Systems: new opportunities captured• Space Propulsion Test Facility in Sardinia: construction well in progress
• Execute on production activities: • P120 production ramp-up: 2021-22 volumes under definition• Increase ASTER-30 production
• FY 2020 Guidance confirmed
Strong support of Institutions for Vega return-to-flight
5SOURCE: Italian Government, Twitter
“Spazio: pieno supporto COMINT alanciatore Vega
[…] Il Comitato Interministeriale per le politiche dello Spazioe l’Aerospazio, unitamente all’Agenzia Spaziale Italiana,garantiscono il pieno supporto ad Avio per assicurare lacontinuità alle attività di accesso allo Spazio cherappresentano una capacità strategica per il Paese“
Comitato Interministeriale per le politiche relative allo spazioe all'aerospazio, 17th November 2020
Space launchers worldwide show an average 6% failure rate
6
4 7 6 3 4 5 3 6 3 5 9
63 71 67 7684 77 77
84
11197
88
6,0%
9,0%8,2%
3,8%4,5%
6,1%
3,8%
6,7%
2,6%
4,9%
9,3%
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
0,2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YtD
Space launches worldwide 2010-20 YtD
Failures Successes Failure rate
SOURCE: Elaboration on SpaceLaunchReport data
6%
Average
97102114
908082
8879
7378
67
After 17 launches, Vega is in line with the average performance
7*Includes also partial failures **Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat *** Proton-M/Briz MSOURCE: Elaboration on SpaceLaunchReport; Press Search
14
15
8
16
15
14
16
16
13
15
3
2
5
1
2
2
1
1
4
2
H2
PSLV
GSLV
Proton***
Soyuz**
Electron
Atlas 5
Falcon 9
Ariane 5
Vega
Successes Failures
11.8%
23.5%
5.9%
11.8%
5.9%
38.4%
11.8%
12.5%
Failure rate*
17.6%
14.5%
5.9%
AverageSpace Launchers’ performance of the first 17 launches
Space launchers show dispersion in performance over the first 20 launchesbefore reaching full product maturity
8
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
MaidenFlight
L- 6 L- 11 L- 16 L- 21 L- 26 L- 31 L-36 L-41 L-46
Launchers success over time
Vega Ariane 5 Falcon 9 Soyuz* Atlas 5
Proton* H2 GSLV PSLV
*Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat ** Proton-M/Briz M
SOURCE: Elaboration on SpaceLaunchReport
Product introduction Product maturity
Comparison of recently developed launchers allows for some considerations
9
2012Vega MF
2006Falcon 1 MF
2010Falcon 9 MF
2012-1914 Vega flights – no failures
1 24 4 5
8
14
1 23
3
3 33
3
3
1
1
1
2006 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 2014
Nr partial failures
Nr total failures
Nr successful launches
1 2 36
811
13 14 15
12
2012 13 14 15 6 17 18 19 2020
Nr partial failures
Nr total failures
Nr successful launches
18 17
12
877
54
21
1513
11
8
6
32
1
Return-to-Flight timing varies depending on specific actions to be undertaken
10
*Average elapsed time for the R-t-F after the last two failures. Includes also partial failures **Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat *** Proton-M/Briz MSOURCE: Elaboration on SpaceLaunchReport; Press Search
7
13
20
4
7
4
5
5
4
14
H2
PSLV
GSLV
Proton***
Soyuz**
Electron
Atlas 5
Falcon 9
Ariane 5
Vega
Average* Return-to-Flight time in months
8
= COVID-19 delay
Average
Despite the many challenges in Space Launch, private investments in the sector continues to increase rapidly
11
0,5 0,7 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,92,4 3,1
3,93,0
5,8
17,5
0
5
10
15
20
2009 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2019 20209M
Inve
stm
en
ts1
($ b
n)
(1) Annual non-governmental equity investmentSource: Elaboration on Space Angels Quartelry Investment Reports
5%
48%
47%
Other Satellites Launch
Breakdown of cumulated 2009-2019 investments by sector (% of 26$ Bn)
Private sector investments in Space Ventures
The rise of satellite constellations confirms space launch capabilities to be an indespensable and strategic capability
12
• 955 satellites alreadylaunched in LEO
• In October 2020 antennas for Beta testing of Starlink delivered to end-users
• Agreements in place with US Army and Microsoft Azure for connection services
• Granted the FCC authorization to launch>3,000 satellites in LEO by 2030
• $ 10 Bn of totalinvestments
• Target to provide directinternet access to Amazon customers
• Different size and resolution Earth Observation (both optical and Radar) satellitesconstellations alreadyactive in LEO
• Launched in total >150 satellites since first launch in 2008
• New LEO constellation to deliver internet connectivity
• First demonstrationsatellite launched in 2018
• Planned a total of > 100 sats and potentially up to 300
SOURCE: Institutional websites, Press search
Appendix
13
Launchers’ reliability study peer group composition
14
51
51
13
96
46
16
86
100
109
17
H2
PSLV
GSLV
Proton-M/Briz M
Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat
Electron
Atlas 5
Falcon 9
Ariane 5
Vega
Number of flights LEO Capacity (t) Maiden Flight Last failure*
*Includes also partial failuresSOURCE: Elaboration on SpaceLaunchReport; Press Search
2012 2020
2018
2016
2007
2003
2017
2015
2010
2017
2020
1996
2010
2002
1994
2006
2001
2001
1993
2017
15
1,8
8
23
4,4
0,3
14
13
20
1,5
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Launchers’* reliability over time
Vega is currently showing performance in line with the market average
15
= Vega Performance
= Average performance
= Best Performer
= Worst Performer
*Benchmark includes Vega, Ariane 5, Falcon 9, Atlas 5, Proton-M/Briz M, Soyuz 2.1/Fregat, Electron, H2, PSLV, GSLV
SOURCE: Elaboration on SpaceLaunchReport; Press Search
MaidenFlight
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