investor update presentation - schroders · 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 focus on growth – cities not...
TRANSCRIPT
Tony Smedley, Head of Continental European Real Estate Investment Andrew MacDonald, Head of Real Estate Finance July 2017
For professional investors only. This material is not suitable for retail clients
Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust Investor update presentation
Highlights
The European growth city strategy Nearing full investment and growing income
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Investment Finance Growth strategy European markets
− Investment: €26.2m invested during the quarter in Seville; €211 million invested in past 18 months
− Portfolio: €210m1 in nine retail/office assets with high occupancy, 4.5yr lease length
− Income: portfolio yield 6.1%; over 8% post debt (pre costs)
− Value growth: portfolio value growth recovers stamp duty costs; further 0.6% this quarter
− NAV: €176.9m NAV as at 30 Jun (€1.323 p.s.), representing NAV total return of 1.5% over the quarter
− Dividends: Increased to 1.5 Euro cents p.s. declared for Apr – Jun, representing 4.4% yield, 116% cover3
− Debt: 26% LTV at interest cost of 1.30%, 7 years duration
− Markets: Broad based economic recovery
− Growth cities: Portfolio located in fastest growing cities in Europe
− Megatrends: urbanisation, infrastructure, demographic change
− Markets: rents rising, voids falling, supply response limited, asset price growth continues
− Market presence: deep local market knowledge and access of Schroder teams
− Dividend: On track for target 5.5% once fully invested2
− Pipeline: In exclusivity to deploy €30m remaining capacity
− Accretive growth: grow portfolio through earnings enhancing acqusitions
− Scale benefits: improves diversification, liquidity and cost economies
Source: Schroders, May 2017/Data: 1Portfolio market value is based on 30 June 2017 independent valuation. 2Dividend is only a target and yield based on IPO issue price in Euro. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. 3 yield based on IPO issue price in Euro
Portfolio, asset management and markets
Portfolio evolution Invested €210m1, 9 assets in France, Germany and Spain
Source: Schroders, July 2017. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell. 1Portfolio market value is based on 30 June 2017
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Jan 2016
€0 €210m1
2017
Retail Warehouse Berlin, Germany
Office Stuttgart, Germany
Retail Frankfurt, Germany
Retail Rennes, France
Office Paris, France
Office St. Cloud, Paris, France
Retail Biarritz, France
Office Hamburg, Germany
Retail Seville, Spain
Recent acquisitions Paris and Seville
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St. Cloud, Paris, France
Purchase Price c. €30m / c. €2,000 psm / 9.5% NIY
Location Saint-Cloud, an upscale mixed use suburb in West Paris
Description 15,800 sqm office premises; the best quality space in a larger 65,000 sqm office complex; fully leased; multi-tenanted; modest rents of €215/sqm. Next to future Grand Paris train station
Asset Management
Refurbish lift lobbies; re-gear leases to maintain attractive NIY and extend WAULT
Strategy Re-gear leases Light refurbishment
Metromar Shopping Centre, Seville, Spain – 50% share
Purchase Price c. €52.5m (100%) / c. €2,200 psm / 6.2% NIY
Location Mairena del Aljarafe, a growing suburb of Seville
Description
23,500 sqm urban shopping centre servicing a catchment of 250,000 people within 15 minutes drive. Strong tenant mix Zara, Mango, Pull & Bear, Mercadona supermaket with a leisure point of difference (cinemas / restaurants)
Asset Management
Lease vacancy, improve leisure offer, improve brand / signage / wayfaring / lighting and general vibrancy
Strategy Lease vacancy Place making
Source: Schroders, July 2017. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
Portfolio overview Nine institutional grade assets in growth markets
6 Source: Schroders, July 2017. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
City Country Sector Valuation No. Tenants Contracted rents
WAULT to break
Void
€m €m yrs % Paris (Boulogne) France Office 41.5 1 2.4 3.8 0.5 Paris (Saint-Cloud) France Office 33.1 11 3.1 2.0 2.9 Biarritz France Retail 21.6 9 1.3 4.2 1.0 Rennes France Retail 18.8 1 0.9 5.0 0.0 France Subtotal 115.1 22 7.7 3.3 1.5 Berlin Germany Retail 25.5 1 1.6 8.5 0.0 Hamburg Germany Office 16.5 15 1.2 6.7 0.6 Stuttgart Germany Office 15.1 4 0.8 8.0 0.4 Frankfurt Germany Retail 11.5 6 0.7 6.5 0.0 Germany Subtotal 68.6 26 4.3 7.6 0.2 Seville, Metromar Spain Retail 26.5 53 2.1 2.8 2.6 Total portfolio 210.1 101 14.0 4.5 1.3
51% 49%
Office Retail
Sector allocation
55% 33%
12%
France Germany Spain
Country allocation
20%
16%
13% 12%
10%
9%
8% 7%
5%
Paris B-B) Paris (SC) Sevilla Berlin Biarritz
Rennes Hamburg Stuttgart Frankfurt
Property allocation
Lease expiry to earliest termination WAULT
Tenant overview Over 100 tenants and weighted average lease term of 4.5 years
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– Portfolio weighted average unexpired lease term of 4.5 years – Seville: c.3 years due to rolling breaks prevalent with the larger
retailers (e.g. Inditex Group and cinema). This is mitigated by the fact that these retailers are trading well (sustainable effort ratios) and are long term occupiers (since 2007)
– Paris (St.Cloud): nature of tenant profile (SMEs) results in shorter term leases. Good progress being made with lease re-gears/extensions
Top 10 tenants Sector City Rent p.a.
WAULT to earliest expiry years Credit risk assessment € m % of total
1 ALTEN Technology Paris (Boulonge) 2.3 16.6% 3.8 Low 2 Casino Grocery Retail Rennes & Biarritz 1.9 13.2% 5.0 Low 3 Hornbach Retail Berlin 1.6 11.5% 8.5 Low 4 City BKK Insurance Hamburg 0.8 6% 7.7 High* 5 Land Baden-Württemberg Government Stuttgart 0.7 4.7% 8.6 Low 6 Thesee (Leyton) Consultancy Paris (Saint Cloud) 0.6 4% 2.2 Medium 7 Ethypharm Pharmaceutical Paris (Saint Cloud) 0.6 4% 0.5 Low 8 Filassistance Insurance Paris (Saint Cloud) 0.5 3.3% 2.0 Low 9 Garantie assistance Insurance Paris (Saint Cloud) 0.4 2.9% 2.0 Low 10 Moody's Analytics Financial Paris (Saint Cloud) 0.4 2.7% 2.1 Low Subtotal 9.6 68.7% 5.0
Remaining Tenants 4.4 31.3% 3.5
Total 14.0 100% 4.5
Source: Schroders, July 2017. *City BKK is part of a national insurance co-operative which mitigates their risk assessment as the co-operative must cover the liabilities of all members. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Focus on growth – cities not countries Major cities and regions enjoy faster economic growth
Source: Oxford Economics, Schroders. July 2017 The forecast should be regarded as illustrative of trends. Actual figures will differ from forecasts. Please refer to Important Information regarding forecasts
Average GDP Growth 2017-2021, % pa
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SEREIT’s Investment Universe SEREIT’s portfolio vs. Investment Universe
Exposure to higher GDP growth, winning centres SEREIT portfolio located in highest growth regions of Western Europe
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Source: Oxford Economics, Schroders. July 2017 –Total of 9 assets as at last valuation. Investment universe consisting of 1043 NUTS3 regions in countries shown on map. Data based on Oxford Economics’ GDP growth forecasts end-2016–end 2021 as at April 2017.
Outer ring shows SEREITs direct exposure as a % of value
47%
29%
19%
5%
80%
20%
Fastest Growing RegionsSecond QuartileThird QuartileSlowest Growing Regions
Inner ring shows
average for investment
universe
Office employment: Forecast growth in absolute employment between end-2016 to end-2021
ILO-Unemployment rates
Labour markets continue to recover Unemployment falling – strong growth in office employment
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Source: PMA, Oxford Economics, April 2017. The forecast should be regarded as illustrative of trends. Actual figures will differ from forecasts. Please see the information slide at the end of this presentation. Countries mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
(%)
0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5% 20.0%
MilanHelsinkiBrussels
DusseldorfRotterdam
CopenhagenVienna
ParisBarcelona
LisbonStuttgart
MunichHamburg
LyonFrankfurtCologne
OsloAmsterdam
MadridBerlin
StockholmLuxembourg
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Germany France Italy Netherlands Sweden
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,000
Germany France UK and Ireland Italy BeNeLux Iberia Sweden
European occupier activity remains high Broad based recovery in occupier demand
Source: JLL, Schroders. April 2017. Country figures based on major markets
Take-up, 12m tolling Totals, ‘000 sq m
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2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Germany France Italy Spain BeneluxNordic Central Europe Other Net Additions (lhs)
Office development is subdued Limited building activity supportive of rental growth
Source: PMA, Schroders. April 2017. Data for Europe ex. UK Note forecasts should be regarded as illustrative of trends. Actual figures will differ from forecasts. See Important Information regarding forecasts
Office completions, million square metres
Forecast
Net-Additions (% of Stock)
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Modern Grade A office space remains scarce This creates opportunity for rental growth/refurbishments
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Source: JLL, April 2017 *Paris, Brussels, Luxembourg and Lyon based on vacancy in newly completed stock **Barcelona and Madrid estimated
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Vacancy Rate (%) Vacancy Rate Grade A
Schroder European REIT Deploying remaining capital (€28m) in line with strategy
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Source: Schroders, July 2017. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
Opportunity Country Sector Pricing Yield Profile Comment
1 Barcelona Parcel Delivery (in exclusivity) Spain Logistics €9m 6.5% Core
Fully let 9,000 sqm facility built to good specification, WAULT 5.5 years. 4.5m people within 30 kms. Rack rented.
2 Rummily Logistics Warehouse (in exclusivity)
France Logistics €9m 6.5% Core Let to Nestle subsidiary, term expires 2025. Located 40kms from Geneva and 110kms from Lyon.
3 Valencia Parcel Delivery Spain Logistics €9m 6.5% Core Forward purchase of a new 9,000 sqm parcel delivery unit. 8/18 year lease. Strong tenant.
4 Beersel Logistics Belgium Industrial/ Logistics €20m 6.3% Core+ Logistics asset located close to Brussels ring
road. Off-market, likely to be 2018.
Total €47m 6.4%
Financial review
Financial highlights
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June 30 NAV of €176.9m (132.3 cents per share (‘cps’) )
– Increase of 0.6% over the quarter – Driven by valuation uplift and profit, partially offset by property acquisition costs – NAV total return over the quarter of 1.5%
Third interim dividend declared of 1.5 cents per share – 116% covered from net income over the quarter – Represents annualised dividend yield of 4.4% – Fourth consecutive quarterly increase – Targeting 5.5% dividend yield once fully invested1
Overall LTV is 26% at a weighted average interest rate of 1.30% and a weighted duration of c. 7 years
Approximately €30m of remaining investment capacity (including debt)
1Yield based on the Euro equivalent of the issue price as at admission. This is a target only, based on a number of assumptions that may not materialise. There can be no guarantee that this target will be met. Source: Schroders, July 2017. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
NAV movement over quarter 1.5% NAV total return underpinned by valuation growth
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Source: Schroders, July 2017 Numbers based on proportionally consolidated basis and therefore represent SEREITs share of joint ventures.
€m cps Comments
NAV as at 31 March 2017 175.9 131.5
Unrealised gain in valuation of the property portfolio 1.1 0.8 Hamburg €0.4m, Berlin €0.2m, Seville €0.2m, Stuttgart
€0.15m and all other assets €0.15m Transaction costs of investments made during the quarter (0.7) (0.5) Acquisition costs for Seville
Net Operating Income 2.3 1.8 Annualised rent increased to €14m
Other non-cash items (0.1) (0.1) Change in fair value of interest rate caps, FX etc
Approved dividend payable (1.6) (1.2) Dividend for Mar – Jun (1.2 cents ps), paid in July
NAV as at 30 June 2017 176.9 132.3
As at 30 June 2017 (€m) Investment properties 210.1 External third-party loans (60.4m) Cash and other net assets 27.2 NAV 176.9
Summary balance sheet
Final stages of capital deployment Property acquisitions generating income growth
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Source: Schroders, July 2017. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. *European Public Real Estate Association (“EPRA”).
Growth in annualised gross rental income €’million
0
5
10
15
30-Sep-16 31-Dec-16 31-Mar-17 30-Jun-17
Paris - Boulogne Berlin Hamburg Stuttgart Frankfurt Rennes / Biarritz Paris - St. Cloud Seville
€8.7m €8.7m
€12.0m
€14.1m
– Over €211m invested over 18 months
– Average acquisition income yield of 6.1%
– Remaining investment capacity of c€30m
– Includes drawing additional debt up to 30% - 35% LTV 88%
12%
Invested Available
Total funds including debt
– Once fully invested, targeting annualised euro dividend yield of 5.5%1
– Dividend of 1.5 Euro cents per share declared in respect of period April - June, payable in September 2017 – Represents annualised dividend yield of 4.4% – Increase from 1.2 Euro cents per share for January - March, equating to quarterly increase of 25% – 116% covered from net income – Will grow towards target yield as deployment of remaining capital is completed
Fully covered dividend Good progress towards yield target of 5.5%1 p.a.
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1Yield based on the Euro equivalent of the issue price as at admission. This is a target only, based on a number of assumptions that may not materialise. There can be no guarantee that this target will be met. Source: Schroders, July 2017.
Growth in dividend per share € cents p.s.
0.8 0.9
1 1.2
1.5
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4
Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017
Loans summary as at 30 June 2017
Debt strategy
Debt financing Current borrowing rates accretive to income returns
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1. LTV based on GAV of overall company. Source: Schroders, July 2017.
– Portfolio gearing capped at 35% LTV; loans targeted against assets where most accretive and may be up to 50% LTV
– Seven of the nine portfolio assets have gearing secured against them; the two Paris offices are currently ungeared
– Property level income returns from existing portfolio increased from 6.1% to over 8% post gearing (pre costs and expenses)
– Different loan maturities to spread refinance risk
– Interest only to maximise income distribution
– 100% of interest rate exposure either fixed or capped;
– Likely to draw further debt against ungeared assets or future acquisitions, taking gearing to 30% - 35% LTV
Loan Loan Amount LTV Maturity Interest Rate
Hamburg/Stuttgart €14.0m 48% June 2023 0.85%
Frankfurt / Berlin €16.5m 46% June 2026 1.31%
French Hypermarkets €18.2m 45% July 2023 1.35%
Seville €11.7m 45% May 2024 1.76%
Total €60.4m 26%1 7.0 Years 1.30%
30%
51%
19%
France GermanySpain
44%
34%
22%
2023 2024 2026
Loans by country Loans by maturity
Summary and outlook
– High quality portfolio of over €200m located in growth cities across France, Germany and Spain
– Strong income profile with c. 100% occupancy and 4.5 year average lease length
– Good progress on asset management initiatives
– Low cost, long duration debt financing at 26% LTV – accretive to income return
– Dividend increase takes yield to 4.4% p.a.; target 5.5% when fully invested1
– Investor and occupier activity in target markets remains strong post Brexit vote; rents continue to rise
– Megatrends (e.g. urbanisation, infrastructure investment) support long-term focus on growth cities
– Targeting further accretive investments and equity issuances to fulfil growth ambitions; scale will improve share liquidity and cost economies
The Company investing in European growth cities Nearing full investment with potential for further growth
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1Yield based on the Euro equivalent of the issue price as at admission. This is a target only, based on a number of assumptions that may not materialise. There can be no guarantee that this target will be met. Source: Schroders, July 2017.
Important information
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For professional investors or advisers only. This material is not suitable for retail clients. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. The views and opinions contained herein are those of Tony Smedley, Head of Continental European Real Estate Investment, and Andrew MacDonald, Head of Real Estate Finance , and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This presentation is for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Real Estate Investment Management Ltd (‘SREIM’) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The data has been sourced by SREIM and should be independently verified before further publication or use. No responsibility can be accepted for error of fact or opinion. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. The forecasts included in this document should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. We accept no responsibility for any errors of fact or opinion and assume no obligation to provide you with any changes to our assumptions or forecasts. Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors. Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust risk factors: Companies which invest in a smaller number of assets carry more risk than those spread across a larger number of assets. The Company may invest solely in property located in one country or region. This can carry more risk than investments spread over a number of countries or regions. The Company may borrow money to invest in further investments, this is known as gearing. Gearing will increase returns if the value of the assets purchased increase in value by more than the cost of borrowing, or reduce returns if they fail to do so. The fund holds investments denominated in currencies other than sterling, changes in exchange rates will cause the value of these investments, and the income from them, to rise or fall. The dividend yield is an estimate and is not guaranteed.
Use of IPD data and indices: © and database right Investment Property Databank Limited and its Licensors 2013. All rights reserved. IPD has no liability to any person for any losses, damages, costs or expenses suffered as a result of any use of or reliance on any of the information which may be attributed to it. Issued in July 2017 by Schroder Real Estate Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA. Schroder Real Estate Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registration number 1188240 England. UK12044
Important information
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Contact Schroder Investment Management Limited,
31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA.
schroders.com