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11
TransAlta Corporation
Investor Presentation
May 2018
22
This presentation includes forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities
legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs as well as assumptions based on available information and on management’s experience and perception of
historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts,
but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as “may”, “will”, “can”, “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”,
“project”, “forecast”, “foresee”, “potential”, “enable”, “continue”, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not guarantees of our future performance and are subject to
risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to be materially different from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. In
particular, this presentation contains, but is not limited to, forward-looking statements pertaining to:anticipated industry trends, including decarbonization, growth in renewables and
natural gas renewables and shift to fast-ramping technologies; 2018 goals and priorities, including delivering free cash flow growth of 5% to 10% and advancing work on coal to gas
conversions; extension of contracts beyond original contract term; ability to leverage our knowledge and customer relationships to develop new sites; life extension and growth of the
hydro facilities, including the green credits expected under the new regulation and development of Brazeau pumped storage and Bighorn facility expansion; converting 2,600 MW of
the Alberta coal fleet to clean energy by 2022; monetization of Off-Coal Payment; carbon tax climbing to $50/tCO2 by 2022; implementation of the capacity market in Alberta with the
first auction in 2019 for capacity in 2021; fleet life extended by approximately 75 years adding over $1 billion of FCF; new green credits and terms, including application of credits to
offset the carbon costs for coal and converted gas units; increase in wind revenue from Alberta of over 90% going forward; post-PPA upside for Alberta hydro; benefits of Alberta
capacity market and capacity requirements to 2030; Alberta capacity and energy price forecasts to 2032; reduction in emissions; the characteristics of the coal-to-gas conversions,
including timing, reduction in costs, impact on free cash flow and heat rate; key actions to support TransAlta’s growth strategy, including leveraging existing sites, merchant
exposures and expanding into new regions; growth opportunities from 2018 to beyond 2031, including acquisitions, coal-to-gas and solar development; Alberta pipeline strategy and
benefits of Tidewater pipeline; the Brazeau pumped storage project and Bighorn hydro expansion, including construction and costs, contracting and timing; growth to be realized,
including the Garden Plains and Cowley Ridge wind farms in Alberta and the Antelope Coulee Wind farm in Saskatchewan, including the capacity, in-service date and cost of each
project; capital allocation in 2018 and 2020; future capital structure, including adjusted FFO to net debt in 2020; FCF outlook in 2018; the 2018 outlook, including comparable
EBITDA, FFO and FCF ranges; the 2018 to post-2021 FCF outlook; and the relationship with TransAlta Renewables, including TransAlta’s continued sponsorship of TransAlta
Renewables and the ability of TransAlta renewables to compete for third party acquisitions and new opportunities. Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements
include risks relating to: legislative or regulatory developments, including as it pertains to the Alberta capacity market and Federal environmental legislation; changes in economic
and competitive conditions; inability to secure natural gas supply and the construction of a natural gas pipeline on terms satisfactory to the Company; the introduction of disruptive
sources of energy or capacity; changes in the price for natural gas; decreased demand for energy or capacity; availability of financing; fluctuations in market prices, including
deviations of Alberta spot and Mid-C spot prices relative to stated assumptions; the availability of fuel supplies required to generate electricity, including the costs of natural gas
within Alberta; changes to the relationship with, or ownership of, TransAlta Renewables; wind and hydro resources being less than long term average; reduction to the Canadian coal
capacity factor; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; risks associated with development projects and acquisitions, including permitting,
labour and engineering risk associated with the coal to gas conversions; increased costs or delays in the construction or commissioning of pipelines to the converted units. The
foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of our Management Discussion and Analysis and under the heading “Risk
Factors” in our Annual Information Form. Readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to place undue
reliance on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this document are made only as of the date hereof and we do not undertake to publicly
update these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable laws. Readers are cautioned not to place undue
reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect the Corporation's expectations only as of the date of this presentation. The purpose of the financial outlooks contained in this
presentation is to give the reader information about management's current expectations and plans and readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other
purposes. In light of these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events might occur to a different extent or at a different time than we have described, or might
not occur at all. We cannot assure that projected results or events will be achieved.
Certain financial information contained in this presentation, including Comparable EBITDA, FFO and FCF, may not be standard measures defined under International Financial
Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute
for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. For further information on non-IFRS financial measures we use, see the section entitled “Reconciliation of Non-IFRS Measures”
contained in our most recently filed Management's Discussion and Analysis, filed with Canadian securities regulators on www.sedar.com and the Securities and Exchange
Commission on www.edgar.com.
Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.
Forward Looking Statements
33
Emerging Industry Trends
TransAlta well positioned to capitalize on emerging trends
Move away from coalDe-carbonization
Growth in renewables as a source of low carbon generation
Cost of renewables is declining
Intermittent nature of renewables is shifting value from
baseload to peaking resources
Significant
Growth in
Renewables
Abundant supply of low cost natural gas will support
dispatchable natural gas generation and coal to gas
conversions
Natural Gas
Generation
Growth
Growing need for flexible, responsive generation
Value of hydro-based power storage will increase
Increasing recognition of the importance of reliability
Shift to Fast-
Ramping
Technologies
44
2018 Goals and Priorities
Meeting Customer Needs With Low Cost, Reliable, Clean and Firm Power
1 Support the development of a fair and equitable capacity market
2 Advance ongoing work on coal to gas conversions
3 Continue to improve our safety and environmental metrics
4 Deliver free cash flow growth between 5% and 10%
5 Continue to pursue our Greenlight initiatives and accretive growth projects
PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2018-05-11 9:32 AM
55
TransAlta’s Global Generation Portfolio
66
BC
WA
ON
WY
QC
NB
MN
AB
MA
TransAlta Today
Significant generator with 8,266 MW of capacity
Highly contracted (70%) with upside to Alberta market
1 Comparable EBITDA less sustaining capital and other adjustments and excludes Energy Marketing and Corporate Segments
Diversified operations with over 65 facilities in three countries
AUSTRALIACoal / Future CTG
Hydro
Gas
Solar
Wind
Corporate Offices
2017 SEGMENTED CASH FLOW FROM
THE BUSINESS(1)
25%
43%
25%
7%
Wind / Solar
Hydro
Gas
Coal
77
$315
$334
$372
2014 2015 2016 2017 2021E
EBITDA ($ millions)
$400
$300 - $330
Natural Gas
Long-term stable cash flows
OVERVIEW
100% of generation contracted
9 year weighted average contract life
Total net capacity of 1,348MW
67% Canada and 33% Australia
CUSTOMER FOCUS
Sites designed and built to supply a
customer need
Excellent track record of extensions
beyond original contract term
WESTERN
CANADA
EASTERN
CANADA
AUSTRALIA
Gas-fired Generation Assets
88
$179 $176
$195
2014 2015 2016 2017 2021+
Contracted EBITDA ($ millions) Merchant EBITDA ($ millions)
$214
$220 - $240
Wind and Solar
OVERVIEW
71% of generation contracted with an
average capacity weighted contract life of
13 years
Total net capacity of 1,339MW
Canada’s largest generator of wind power
Experienced developer and operator of
wind in Alberta
OPERATING MODEL
Remote monitoring and operation of all
sites optimizes site performance
Extensive data enables optimization of
operations
Able to leverage our knowledge and
customer relationships to develop new
sites
WESTERN
CANADA
EASTERN
CANADA
WESTERN
U.S.
Wind / Solar Assets
Highly contracted asset base with upside in Alberta
99
Hydro
Unique, reliable and perpetual
OVERVIEW
Own and operate over 90% of Alberta’s
hydro
Expecting approximately $25 million
annually in green credits under new
regulation
Critical back-up for wind and solar
Essential for market stability
Immediate ramping
LIFE EXTENSION AND GROWTH
Re-contracted Akolkolex for 30 years
Optionality for extensions and upgrades
New opportunities:
Brazeau Pumped Storage
Bighorn facility expansion
WESTERN
CANADA
EASTERN
CANADA
CANADA
Hydro Facilities
$87 $73
$82
2014 2015 2016 2017 2021+
EBITDA ($ millions)
$75
$225 - $275
1010
CA and US Coal / Future CTG
OVERVIEW
Total net capacity of 4,653MW
3,313MW in Alberta and 1,340MW in US
PPAs on Keephills 1 and 2 and Sheerness expire
at end of 2020 in advance of the transition to the
new capacity market
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
Optimize the value of the coal portfolio between
2018 to 2020
Convert 2,600 MW of the Alberta coal fleet to
clean energy by 2022
Evaluate timing of conversions of jointly owned
facilities – Keephills 3, Genesee, and Sheerness
OFF-COAL AGREEMENT
Government of Alberta annual off-coal payments
of $37.4 million totaling $524 million
First payment received in Q3/17
Opportunity to monetize ($300-350 million)
Coal / Future CTG
Facilities
Approximately $200 million in FCF annually for an additional
fifteen years beyond 2021
$451 $456$434
2014 2015 2016 2017 2021+
EBITDA ($ millions)
$413
$300 - $350
PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2018-05-11 9:32 AM
1111
Clarity in Alberta’s Power Market
Transition
1212
Regulatory Clarity Achieved
Regulatory clarity supports investment strategy
Off-coal agreement and federal rules mean coal is phased out by 2029 in
CanadaCoal Phase Out
Initial carbon tax of $30/tCO2 effective January 1, 2018, potentially
climbing to $50/tCO2 by 2022
Credits for electricity generation with emissions below 0.37 tCO2 per
MWh
Existing wind and hydro eligible
Environmental
Policies
Supports incumbent and new generation by providing value for capacity
Capacity market design well advanced
First auction in 2019 for capacity in 2021
Capacity Market
Plant life extended by 5 to 10 years past coal end of life
TransAlta’s cumulative fleet life extended by approximately 75 years
adding over $1 billion of FCF
Coal to Gas
1313
Alberta Carbon Rules are a Positive Outcome for TransAlta
$30 to $50 million annually in credits for existing renewables
EXISTING WIND AND HYDRO
GENERATION
Will receive credits for generation up to
the performance standard under the
OBA
NEW GREEN CREDITS
Eligible to use credits for up to 40% of
carbon price obligations starting in 2018
Escalating by 5% per year to 60% by
2022
Credits will be used to offset the carbon
costs for coal and converted gas units
0.37 tCO2e/MWh
Emissions
above standard
Emissions
below standard
Generators
charged based
on emissions
above the
performance
standard
Generators
credited based
on emissions
below the
performance
standard
OBA SYSTEM
1414
Upside Potential for Alberta Wind Assets
Revenue from Alberta expected to increase over 90% going forward
Alberta market supports higher value
Benefit from higher expected power
price due to carbon costs and higher
stronger fundamentals
$15 to $20 million annually in green
credits
Will qualify for capacity payments in
2021
ALBERTA WIND REVENUE(1)
1) Energy price in 2018 to 2020 assumed to be $65/MWh. Energy and capacity prices post 2021 assumed to be $40/MWh and $10/KW-month, respectively. Credits based on a $30 carbon tax in 2018 to 2020 and a $50
carbon tax post 2022. Generation assumed to be 1,000 GWh
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Today 2018 to 2020 Post 2021
Power Revenue ($ mm) Capacity Revenue ($ mm)
Credits ($ mm)
1515
Significant Upside Post-PPA for Alberta Hydro
Comparable hydro assets valued at 12x to 14x EBITDA
1Balancing Pool
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Historical EBITDA(5-yr average)
Capacity PaymentReceived from BP¹
Obligations Paid tothe BP¹
Future CapacityPayments
Emissions Credits Future ProformaEBITDA
$ m
illio
ns
$225 - $275
1616
Development of Alberta’s Capacity Market Supports Our Fleet
TransAlta is well positioned to compete in a capacity market
Provides future revenue visibility and stabilityForward Auction
All capacity resources permitted to participate
TransAlta’s entire generation fleet will be able to participateEqual Treatment
Mitigates price volatility and supports capacity revenue during
periods of oversupply
Downward
Sloping Demand
Curve
REP Capacity
Excluded
Avoids negative impact on capacity price due to subsidized
renewables
1717
12,144 12,557 13,231
1,822 1,884 1,985
13,966 14,441
15,216
2021E 2025E 2030E
Peak Demand 15% Reserve
Adjusted Capacity: 13,700
TransAlta’s Units are Required
EXPECTED CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS (MW)
(3) (4)
1 Based on AESO’s 2017 reference case 2 Assumes AESO sets a 15% reserve margin above peak demand for determining capacity requirements 3 Adjusted for outages, de-rates and anticipated capacity
eligibility for thermal (95%), hydro (90%) and wind (15%) generation 4 Assumes interties are ineligible for capacity
(1) (2)
PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2018-05-11 9:32 AM
1818
Transitioning our Coal Fleet
1919
Timeframe
“Fuel switching is an attractive and
economical option for utilities that must
maintain a certain generating capacity in
their fleet […]”
– Power Engineering
“A number of coal plants nationwide have
converted to natural gas, a move that
uses much of the same infrastructure but
involves different economics, less
pollution […]”
– Midwest Energy News
NORTH AMERICAN
CTG CONVERSIONS
MW
Converted
Not a new concept - many North American examples of CTG conversion
CTG Conversions: Proven Technology
Harding Street
Unit 72016450MW
Joliet
Unit 7/820161,326MW(1)
Shawville
Unit 3/4 2015/2016376MW
2 2 510
2618
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016M
W C
on
vert
ed
Conversions
(# Completed)
1Capacity for Unit 6 (290MW), Unit 7 (518MW), and Unit 8 (518MW). Units 7 and 8 are most similar to TransAlta’s planned conversions
2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039
No Conversion Scenario Convert to Gas
Key Driver of Conversion – Life Extension
Cumulative fleet life extended
by approximately 75 years
TRANSALTA’S COAL & CTG GENERATION CAPACITY (MW)
2121
Key Outcomes of Conversion – Emissions Reduction
1NOx reduction ranges from 10% to 70% depending on unit specification. Certain units already generate low NOx emissions.
Carbon emissions are
almost halved and
particulate emissions
are effectively
eliminated for
converted generation
EMISSIONS INTENSITY REDUCTION (%)
(1)
48%
60%
98%95%
CO2 NOx SO2 Hg
2222
Key Outcomes of Conversions – Reduced Fixed Costs
Fixed OM&A and sustaining capital costs are reduced
by approximately 15%1Average annual fixed costs for a 400 MW unit
Less complex
operations lead to
significant cost
reductions
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Convertible Coal Converted Gas
$ m
illio
ns
Fixed OM&A Sustaining Capital Pipeline Tolls
2323
Key Outcomes of Conversion – Competitive Variable Costs
Cost of carbon drives competitive advantage
Note: Converted unit based on natural gas price of $2.50/GJ. “Other” category includes costs associated with the removal of mercury, and costs associated with reducing NOX, SOx, and particulates. Transmission costs
are excluded in all scenarios.
$30 PER TONNE CARBON COSTS
($/MWh)
$50 PER TONNE CARBON COSTS
($/MWh)
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
Coal Converted Coal Converted
Fuel Carbon Other
2424
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Key Outcomes of Conversions – FCF Generation
Assumes $30 carbon tax and $8/KW-month capacity price
CUMULATIVE FCF OVER LIFE OF ASSETS ($ MILLION)
Expected FCF growth of over $1 billion with conversion
Conversion expected to
generate over $1 billion in
additional FCF given
expected federal
regulations
Stay on Coal
Convert to
Gas
2525
-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 $11.00 $12.00 $13.00
FC
F @
$3
0/to
nne
Capacity Price ($/KW-month)
FCF of converted units is expected to be in-line with historical
Sensitivity of FCF to Capacity Prices
2014 - 2016
Average
EST. AVERAGE ANNUAL FCF UNDER CAPACITY MARKET ($ MM)
2626
Substantial Economic Advantages Compared to New Build
• Conversions will be able to enter the market faster, at lower capital cost and
with substantially less risk than new CCGT
Build Cost (2,700 MW)
Carbon Tax
Ramping
Time to Build
CTG Conversion
$300 million
Higher
Slower
60 days
New Combined Cycle Facility
$4.5 billion
Lower
Faster
4 – 5 years
Conversions will supply customers with low priced, reliable power
Illustrative Heat Rate 9.5x - 11x 7x
PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2018-05-11 9:32 AM
2727
Strongly Positioned For The Future
2828
TransAlta’s Growth Strategy
De-carbonizeLeverage
Existing Sites
Leverage
Scale and
Operational
Expertise for
Acquisitions
Focus on
Greenfield &
Brownfield
Take Some
Merchant
Risk
Expand into
New Regions
Expand Direct
Customer
Business
Partner
2929
TransAlta’s Growth Strategy – Key Actions
De-carbonize Fleet
Leverage Existing Sites
Leverage Scale and
Operational Expertise
Focus on Greenfield &
Brownfield
Take Some Merchant
Risk
Expand into New
Regions
Expand Direct Customer
Business
Partner
• Convert coal to gas
• Expand in hydro/wind/solar/efficient gas
• Expand existing Alberta hydro sites (e.g. Brazeau)
• Future repowering of existing wind sites
• Add new natural gas at existing coal sites
• Integrate new assets without adding significant overhead/admin costs
• In-sourcing of operations and maintenance
• Leverage experience and competitive advantage in new builds
• Less competitive - higher returns
• Leverage Energy Trading & Marketing expertise and knowledge
• Opportunities with some merchant risk attract fewer competitors and generate
higher returns
• Expand into other regions of U.S. and Eastern Australia
• Behind-the-fence generation
• PPAs with non-traditional counterparties (e.g. technology/telecom companies)
• Create value by combining strengths of other parties
• Potential to partner with financial players, OEMs, and customers
Strategy Actions
3030
Growth Opportunity Set
TransAlta/TransAlta Renewables well positioned to continue to grow
Alberta natural gas pipeline
Potential for 500+ MW of renewables in Alberta and Sask.
Behind the fence gas generation in Alberta, BC and Ontario
Solar development in Australia and U.S.
Significant acquisition opportunities in U.S., Canada, Australia
Conversion of 2,500 - 3,000 MW of coal to gas
Potential for 4,000 MW of renewable in Alberta
Brazeau energy storage project, Bighorn expansion, Dunvegan
Repowering of existing wind sites in U.S. and Canada
Acquisitions
Replacement of 3,000 MW of converted CTG in Alberta with
greenfield natural gas fired generation and storage
Greenfield solar and wind in U.S.
Acquisitions
2018 - 2020
2021 - 2030
2031+
3131
PROVIDES ACCESS TO TIDEWATER
STORAGE FACILITIES
Alberta Pipeline Strategy
NATURAL GAS PIPELINE
REQUIREMENTS
Sundance and Keephills can consume up
to 175 MMcf/d through fuel blending; up
to 700 MMcf/d when running at full
capacity once converted
Existing pipelines can provide only limited
amount of gas today
TIDEWATER NATURAL GAS PIPELINE
Entered into an agreement with Tidewater
to construct a pipeline from their Brazeau
River Complex to TransAlta’s generating
facilities
Initial volumes of 130 MMcf/d with the
potential to expand to 440 MMcf/d
Cost of $150 to $170 million, and
expected COD in early 2020
TransAlta has the option to invest in up to
50% of the pipeline
Aligns both companies interests;
provides low cost access to natural gas
transportation and future flexibility
Ownership builds on TransAlta’s
ownership of natural gas pipeline
infrastructure in Australia
PROPOSED PIPELINE MAP
3232
Edmonton
Bonnyville
Grande Prairie
Hinton
Camrose
Wetaskiwin
Red Deer
Drumheller
Calgary
Lethbridge
Medicine Hat
Ft. McMurray
100 km
60 mi
Big Horn 1&2 – 120MW
Abraham
Lake
Rocky
Mountain House
Brazeau Dam
355MW
Brazeau Gorge
Brazeau
Canal
Brazeau
Reservoir
Edmonton
Water Flow
Water Flow
Water Flow
Brazeau Energy Storage
SIGNIFICANT VALUE
Unique one-of-a-kind pumped storage
hydro project
Up to 900 MW
Investment of $1.5 to $2.7 billion
Significant economic and employment
benefits
Targeting 2025/2026 operating date
Requires long-term contract
3333
Brazeau Pumped Hydro – Significant System Benefits
Brazeau Pumped Hydro
Storage
Fast Ramping
Load Following
Wind Firming
Avoided Curtailment
Voltage and Inertia Support
Supports Transition to Clean Energy and a Low Cost, Reliable Electricity
System
3434
TransAlta’s Brazeau Pumped Hydro Opportunity
Leverages existing infrastructure
Existing power house
Proposed pumped hydro
3535
Brazeau: Significant Work Completed and Underway
Engaged Owner’s Engineer, providing Class 5 Estimate
Conducted initial geotechnical work
Started engagement with First Nations
Started environmental field studies
Engaged with Governments, Communities, Unions, Regulators and NGOs
3636
Bighorn 1&2 – 120MW
Abraham
Lake
Rocky
Mountain House
Brazeau Dam
355MW
Brazeau Gorge
Brazeau
Canal
Brazeau
Reservoir
Edmonton
Water Flow
Water Flow
Water Flow
Bighorn Hydro Expansion
Expand existing Bighorn from 120 MW to
240 MW
Two additional turbines and intake
structure
Preliminary engineering work completed,
identifying no significant issues
Utilizes existing infrastructure
Capable of providing energy, capacity
and ancillary services
Preliminary cost estimate of $360 million
3737
Alberta wind projects remain candidates for future REP procurements
or third party contracting
Canadian Wind Projects
Edmonton
Calgary
Saskatoon
Regina
Hanna
Pincher Creek
Swift Current
Garden Plains Wind
Location30 km north of Hanna, Alberta
Capacity 130MW
Proposed
In-Service Date
Future Alberta REP calls or third
party contracting
Capital Costs $260 mm
Other Details Wind resource data dating back
to 2009
Partnerships with landowners
since 2011
Antelope Coulee Wind
Location 35 km southwest of Swift
Current, Saskatchewan
Capacity Up to 200MW
Proposed
In-Service DateApril 2021
Capital Costs $400 mm
Other Details Wind resource data dating back
to 2008
Cowley Ridge Wind Repower
Location Northwest of Pincher Creek,
Alberta
Capacity 20MW
Proposed
In-Service Date
Future Alberta REP calls or
third party contracting
Capital Costs $40 mm
Other Details Site of original Cowley Ridge
Wind Farm which was built in
1993 and dismantled in 2016
Long-term understanding of
wind resource
3838
Well Positioned to Grow
Proven track record with significant opportunities being evaluated
Competitive advantages beyond cost of capital
Brownfield expansions leveraging existing infrastructure provide unique growth
opportunity
Continue to utilize TransAlta Renewables for long-term contracted opportunities
Remain Focused and Disciplined
PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, 2018-05-11 9:32 AM
3939
Outlook and Financial Summary
4040
$0.3
$1.2
$0.1
$0.3
$0.3
$1.4
$0.2
$0.4
Uses Sources
Growth
Capital Allocation - 2018 to 2020
Prudent allocation of capital – excess cash could be allocated
to growth or be returned to shareholders
Bond Repayment
Amortizing Debt
Dividend
FCF including payment for
Alberta PPA termination
Off-Coal Monetization
RNW tax equity
Existing Liquidity
SOURCES & USES ($ BILLION)
4141
Capital Structure – On Solid Ground
Flexibility to fund additional growth or to return cash to shareholders over
the next three years
ADJUSTED FFO TO NET DEBT
Adjusted FFO/Net Debt expected to be at the high end of our 25 – 30% range in 2021
2018 to 2020 Target (20 – 25%)
Post 2020 Target (25 – 30%)
16.5% 17.6% 17.0% 18.2% 18.2% 19.2% 20.4% 20.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018
4242
$328
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2017 2018E
Free Cash Flow Outlook
FREE CASH FLOW BUILD-UP ($ MILLION)
Int. Exp. Reduction
Alberta Market
Optimization
Greenlight & Other
South Hedland$300 - $350
Solomon
Sundance A
Sundance B/C
Coal Cost
Sundance B/C
Termination Payment
More upside through additional productivity gains, cost and capital
reductions and higher prices
4343
2018 Outlook
2018 Outlook Ranges(1) ($ million) Low High
Comparable EBITDA $1,000 $1,050
Funds from Operations $750 $800
Sustaining and Productivity Capital (215) (235)
Free Cash Flow $300 $350
Free Cash Flow Per Share $1.04 $1.22
Annual Dividend $0.16 $0.16
Dividend Payout Ratio 15% 13%
Range of Key AssumptionsAlberta Spot ($/MWh) $50 - $60
Alberta Contracted ($/MWh) $35 - $40
Mid-C Spot (US$/MWh) $20 - $25
Mid-C Contracted (US$/MWh) $47 - $53
Canadian Coal Capacity Factor 65% - 75%
Hydro / Wind Resource Long term average
(1) Outlook excludes $157 million received in the first quarter related to the Sundance B and C termination payment.
4444
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2018E 2019 to 2020 Post 2021
Free Cash Flow Outlook
Full Year of Greenlight
Interest Reductions
Optimization
Full Coal Cost Reductions
Mississauga
Poplar Creek
Hydro Upside
FREE CASH FLOW BUILD-UP ($ MILLION)
$300 - $350
Sundance B/C
Termination Payment$375 - $425
$525 - $575
4545
Enhancing Growth Through Sponsored Vehicle
COMMENTARY ADVANTAGE FOR TRANSALTA
Attractive portfolio of highly
contracted renewables and
gas-fired assets
Current dividend yield 8%
Majority shareholder - 64%
Provides stable and predictable
dividends to TransAlta
Low leverage offers strong
potential for growth
Significant acquisition capacity
(both third-party acquisitions
and drop-downs)
Market premium multiple for
assets with strong, stable cash
flows – 9.4x EV/EBITDA
Access to competitive cost of
capital – 11% AFFO Yield
Ability to compete for third party
acquisitions and new
opportunities
Ability to align risk/return profile
with appropriate entity
Provides natural home for new
renewables investments
Significant
Source of Value
Strong Balance
Sheet
Premium for
Strong, Stable
Cash Flows
4646
Why Invest in TransAlta
Diversified portfolio in Alberta creates short-term value
Significant value creation from coal to gas conversions
Strong long term cash flows from diversified portfolio
Improving balance sheet
Growth opportunities unique to TransAlta
4747
$1.9
$3.1
$0.9
$1.3
$2.9
$1.0
$2.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.2
TA Equity TA Debt,net of cash
Preferred Shares NCI RNW Equity RNW Debt Remaining Value Coal Plant
Value of Coal Not Being Recognized
Correct valuation for the coal and CTG would
increase the share price by $5 to $8 per share
Hydro (2)
Coal Monetization
Renewables and gas not held at RNW
PPA Termination payment
Market is currently
assigning no value
to coal assets
TA RNW TA-Excluding
RNW
Priced as of April 30, 2018. Balance sheet items reflect Q1 2018 values.1 includes the market value of TransAlta Renewables and BV of TA Cogen. 2 Hydro valued at $2.6 million per MW
(1)
TA Upside
Implies
Coal at
6x to 8x
EBITDA