investor presentation - westernforest.com · in laws, regulations or public policy; and the factors...
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Forward Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measures
All financial references are expressed in C$ unless otherwise noted.
This presentation contains statements and estimates that may constitute forward-looking statements under theapplicable securities laws. Readers are cautioned against placing undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Allstatements herein, other than statements of historical fact, may be forward-looking statements and can be identifiedby the use of words such as “projected”, “plan”, “should”, “expect”, “will”, “target”, “expected”, “poised”, “likely” andsimilar references to future periods.
Forward-looking statements in this presentation include, but are not limited to, statements relating to future supplyand demand; future growth plans and strategy; our marketing plans and strategy; our competitive position andexpectations regarding future competition; regulatory developments; or anticipated trade challenges.
Although such statements reflect management’s current reasonable beliefs, expectations and assumptions, there canbe no assurance that forward-looking statements are accurate, and actual results and performance may materiallyvary. Many factors could cause our actual results or performance to be materially different including: generaleconomic conditions; changes in annual allowable cut; competition and selling prices; foreign trade disputes; changesin foreign currency exchange rates; labour disruptions; natural disasters; relations with First Nations groups; changesin laws, regulations or public policy; and the factors discussed in the company’s annual information form, which isavailable on our website at www.westernforest.com. The foregoing list is not exhaustive, as other factors couldadversely affect our actual results and performance. Forward-looking statements are based only on informationcurrently available to us and refer only as of the date hereof. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation toupdate forward-looking statements.
During the course of this presentation, certain non-GAAP financial information will be presented. Definitions andreconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A for Western Forest Products Inc.(the “Company”)
1
Western Forest Products: Company Overview
5th largest Canadian lumber producer.
Operating on the coast of British Columbia and Washington State, serving global markets.
— Largest Crown timber tenure holder in Coastal B.C.
— Leading cedar lumber manufacturer in North America.
— Timber resource unaffected by mountain pine beetle.
Lumber capacity of 1.1 billion board feet.
Sales exceed $1 billion over past three years.
TSX listed [TSX:WEF] with strong share liquidity.
Attractive industry dividend yield.
Balance sheet well positioned.
2
A Compelling Pure-Play, Solid Wood Products Investment
3
Western is well-positioned to capitalize on improving market fundamentals.
-Margin-focused business strategy.
-Superior timber asset base and secure fibre supply.
-High-value, diverse products serving global markets.
-Strong financial position and cash flow profile.
-Business of scale with a liquid share capital.
-Committed to enhancing shareholder value.
Western Forest Products: Margin-Focused, Log and Specialty Lumber Company
4
LTM1 revenue of $1.1 billion and EBITDA of $153 million.
Targeted products of scale to selected customers.
(1) Last twelve months total external revenue ended December 31, 2017.
Revenue by Product1 Revenue by Market Area1 Revenue by Currency1
Revenue from 2010 – 2017
Specialty Lumber
58%Commodity Lumber
17%
Logs19%
By-products6%
$USD52%
$CAD43%
¥JPY5%
$668
$854 $925 $978 $1,037 $1,082
$1,187 $1,143
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rev
enu
e ($
M)
Canada38%
Japan12%
China16%
United States26%
Europe3%
Other5%
Western Forest Products: A Margin-Focused Business
Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) for Logs
~ 6.0 million m3
Internal Log Consumption
ExternalLog Sales
Domestic LogMarkets
Export LogMarkets
ManufacturingFacilities
Diverse and Unique Species Mix
Hemlock / BalsamYellow Cedar
Diverse and Unique Species Mix
Hemlock / Balsam SpruceYellowCedar
Douglas Fir
Western Red Cedar
~68%Logs processed at
WFP manufacturingfacilities
~32%Logs sold
Log Purchases1
~ 1.3 million m3
Pulp Log Markets
Timber resource is directed to highest margin opportunity.
5(1) Based on the twelve months ended December 31, 2017.
Log Strategy: Directing Volume to Highest Margin Opportunity
6(1) Based on total external log sales and internal log consumption for the twelve months ended December 31, 2017, including purchased logs. Internal transfer values based on Vancouver Log Market prices.
Log End Market
Domestic
Export
Pulplogs
Description
Includes sawlogs, peelers and shingle logs sold through contractual commitments and open market transactions.
Represents log sorts produced in excess of internal mill requirements.
Typically command premium prices due to strong demand.
Volumes committed under long-term fibre supply agreements.
Commitments met through internal log supply, supply contracts and open market pulplog purchases.
Primary Target Geographies
Canada
China Korea Japan U.S.
Canada
% Value1 % Volume1
External Log Sales
WFP Sawmills
All five species of Western’s sawlogs consumed by internal manufacturing operations.
Internal log supply supplemented by open market purchases to maximize margin.
Canada
3%7%
10%9%
19%16%
68% 68%
Western’s Scale Creates Unique Marketing Opportunity
7
11 - 18”
5 – 11”
16 - 22”
20 - 30”
24”+
NarrowDimension
WideDimension
Squares Timbers Grade &Appearance
Log Cutting Patterns
Commodity Commodity /WRC
Japan Niche /WRC
Niche /WRC
WFP ProductGroup
WFP MarketingGroup
Log diameter determines the products manufactured.
Log Supply Marketing Strategy Manufacturing Strategy Sales Strategy
23%
47%
10%
8%
20%
18%
47%
27%
Diversified Lumber Product Offering Allows Western to Profitably Serve Multiple Markets Throughout the Cycle
8
Lumber Segment
Western Red Cedar
Japan Specialty
Niche
Commodity
Description
Consumer-orientated products.
Naturally durable. Ideal for outside uses.
Products for traditional post and beam construction.
Requires unique and rigorous quality standards.
Specialty products and markets.
Focused on appearance grades, value-add products.
Traditional dimension lumber and developing grades.
Currently focused on China.
Primary Target Geographies
U.S. Canada
Japan
U.S. Canada Asia Europe Australia
China U.S.
% Value1 % Volume1
Specialty Segments
Example Products
(1) Based on lumber sales for the twelve months ended December 31, 2017.
77%
53%
Arlington Lumber Distribution and Processing Facility
9
Facility and Location Provides Numerous Operating and Logistic Advantages
18 acre site with a distribution and processing facility and related equipment.
Centralized warehousing and distribution closer to our U.S. customers.
Rail spur on site serviced by BNSF.
Allows Western to increase production of targeted specialty products.
Expected to be accretive by mid-2018.
Provides Western with protection from damaging effects of US lumber duties.
California Texas
US
Northeast
Specialty Products Reduce EBITDA Volatility
10
77% of Western’s lumber revenue is generated from non-commodity products.
Specialty lumber sells at a significant premium to commodity lumber.
Specialty products provide more stable margins.
Product/market diversity and global exposure provide additional opportunities to seek best margin.
Cedar, niche and commodity grades will benefit from U.S. housing recovery.
(1) Comparison of selling prices for the reported period over the last 5 years. Quarterly selling price (reported in CAD) compared to to KD W S-P-F #2&Btr 2x4 random(reported in USD and CAD).
(2) Top 3 competitors: West Fraser, Canfor (average of Q4 analyst estimates) and Interfor.(3) Up to December 31, 2017.
EBITDA Margins2,3
WFP Lumber Sales/mfbm vs. Lumber Price1,3
Focus on specialty products delivered 32 consecutive quarters of positive EBITDA3.
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Q1
12
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q4
12
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q4
13
Q1
14
Q2
14
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q1
16
Q2
16
Q3
16
Q4
16
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
17
$ /
MFB
M
WFP Lumber Sales / MFBM - $CADKD W S-P-F #2&Btr 2x4 random - $USDKD W S-P-F #2&Btr 2x4 random - $CAD
Seasonality Can Impact EBITDA Margins
Weather (snow pack, heat) and daylight can impact harvest volumes and costs.
Inventory levels can fluctuate through the year, impacting working capital.
Seasonal market demand can impact lumber production.
11
Seasonal influences can impact operations.
Harvest Production and Log Inventory Volume (1)
Average Lumber Production Volume (1)
(1) Based on last four years’ average.
750
1,000
1,250
1,000
1,250
1,500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Log
Inve
nto
ry 0
00
's m
3
Har
vest
Vo
lum
e 0
00
's m
3
Total Harvest Volume Average Closing Log Inventory By Quarter
200
225
250
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Volu
me
MM
FBM
Competitive Strengths
1. A sustainable, diverse timber base providing a unique range of products.
2. Customer of choice for other coastal log producers due to competitive advantages of scale, financial strength and proximity.
3. Flexible manufacturing platform that can target a variety of global markets.
4. High margin specialty products for the U.S. market – cedar, timbers, moulding & millwork, industrial applications.
5. Low cost access to ocean shipping (break bulk, container & barge) providing competitive transportation to global markets and avoiding rail congestion.
6. Uniquely positioned to capitalize on growth in U.S. market. Western’s market share in Japan / China likely to benefit from repatriation of U.S. production.
7. Washington State based warehousing and distribution facility close to I-5 corridor servicing U.S. customers.
12
Capital to Contribute Significantly to EBITDA
13
$125 million of strategic capital projects are focused on:
– Reducing costs– Increasing efficiency– Improving product
flexibility– Growing production
Capital projects expected to generate a return in excess of 20%.
Investments ($millions)
2012 - 2014
2015 - 2016
2017-2018
Total
Implemented $58.9 $38.8 $10.0 $107.7
Future - - $17.3 $17.3
Total $58.9 $38.8 $27.3 $125.0
Demonstrating Sustainability and Environmental Stewardship
14
Western is committed to ensuring the sustainability of the natural resources in our care
All of Western’s timber tenures are certified according to globally recognized standards, including:
Sustainable Forestry Initiative
Canadian Standards Association
Chain of Custody (PEFC and FSC)
Third party independent audits are conducted annually of Western’s Environmental Management Systems
Western participates in energy conservation programs, such as the Sustainable Energy Management Program with BC Hydro
Western operates a tree seed orchard and a seedling nursery that produces 6.5 million seeds per year and has produced over 100 million seedlings to date
Western’s Business to Benefit from Global Supply/Demand Factors
16
Highly Attractive UnderlyingSupply/Demand Dynamics
U.S. Economicand Housing
Market Recovery
Housing market and repair and remodel activity recovering from trough levels.
Transition from supply driven to demand driven market expected to result in improved pricing for wood products.
Continued Growth in China
Economic growth and urbanization.
Consumption of wood will increase.
Limited domestic fibre supply; increasing need for imports.
U.S. Supply Exit from Japan Market
Repatriation of U.S. lumber exports back to U.S. market creates opportunity for Western.
Government policy designed to increase domestic consumption.
Canadian FibreSupply Reduction
Mountain pine beetle expected to negatively impact interior fibre supply and lumber production.
Eastern Canada AAC reductions.
Strong Underlying
Demand Drivers for
Wood Products
Reduced Supplyof Fibre
1
2
3
4
Demand Drivers: U.S. Economic and Housing Market Recovery
17
U.S. Housing Starts
U.S. Repair & Remodel Expenditures
1
Source: Forest Economic Advisors (February 2018)
Poised to increase shipments to the U.S. as demand and pricing recover.
1.85 1.95 2.071.81
1.340.90
0.55 0.59 0.61 0.78 0.93 1.00 1.11 1.18 1.19 1.28 1.36 1.49 1.61 1.48
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Ho
usi
ng
Star
ts (
mill
ion
s)
50-Year Average: 1.4MM
116.6 125.8146.2 134.9 127.8 123.8 113.7 115.6 120.1 113.8 114.1 120.1 127.8 135.8
152.5 152.6 155.7 162.5 169.8 171.7
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Exp
end
itu
res
(US$
bill
ion
s)
Demand Drivers: New Supply/Demand Dynamics Will Positively Impact Lumber Pricing
Reduced supply from traditional sources combined with increased demand from U.S. and Asian markets is expected to benefit lumber prices.
18Source: Forest Economic Advisors (February 2018); Western Forest Products
Housing Starts (North American and Lumber Export Equivalent) vs. Western SPF Lumber Pricing
1
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
US$
pe
r Mfb
m
Ho
usi
ng
Star
ts (
MM
)
U.S. Housing Starts Canada Housing Starts NA Lumber Exports (Housing Starts Equivalent)
KD SPF 2x4 2+Btr (US$) (Actual) KD SPF 2x4 2+Btr (US$) (FEA Projections)
Demand Drivers: China Growth Has Changed Global Wood Products Demand Dynamics
A deficit of domestic fibre will require China to rely on imports.
Rising wealth/urbanization trends expected to increase demand for structural and higher grade lumber:
– 300 million Chinese people (roughly equivalent to the U.S. population) expected to move from rural to urban areas between 2010 and 2025.
19
Chinese Log Imports Chinese Lumber Imports
Source: China Customs; International Wood Markets (February 2018)
2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
'04A '05A '06A '07A '08A '09A '10A '11A '12A '13A '14A '15A '16A '17A
mill
ion
m³
Russia New Zealand North America
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
'04A '05A '06A '07A '08A '09A '10A '11A '12A '13A '14A '15A '16A '17A
mill
ion
m³
Russia New Zealand North America
Demand Drivers: U.S. Supply Exit From Japan Will Create Market Opportunity
Japan continues to be a major source of demand for wood products and lumber from North America:
– In recent years, suppliers in the U.S. West have increased export activities to Japan due to a lack of domestic demand in the U.S.
– As North American housing markets recover, much of this U.S. supply will be diverted back to local U.S. markets, potentially creating a significant supply gap in Japan for imported lumber.
20Source: Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport; The Trade Statistics, Japan Ministry of Finance; Japan Lumber Importers’ Association (February 2018)
3
Japanese Imports of Canadian and U.S. Lumber and Japanese Housing Starts
Japanese Lumber Imports of Canadian and U.S. Douglas Fir and Hemlock
~100 million board feet opportunity to replace non-SPF
U.S. exports to Japan
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A
Lum
ber
Imp
ort
s (m
illio
n m
3)
U.S. Hem U.S. Dfir CDN Hem CDN Dfir
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A
Ho
usin
g Starts (millio
ns)
Lum
ber
Imp
ort
s (m
illio
n m
3)
Softwood Lumber Imports from Canada Softwood Lumber Imports from U.S.
Japan Housing Starts
Supply Drivers: Canadian Fibre Supply Reduction
21Source: Forest Economic Advisors (February 2018)
B.C. Interior AAC
Quebec AAC
Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic and lower AAC in B.C. and Eastern Canada areexpected to have significant negative impact on North American lumber capacity.
4
55.462.2 64.1 65.7 68.0 67.0 66.9 66.4
61.5 60.8 61.3 60.7 62.156.5
50.3 50.3 50.3 49.3 49.3 48.8
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
AA
C (
mill
ion
m3)
30.5 30.5
24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.320.0 20.0 21.2 21.2 21.2 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4
10
15
20
25
30
35
2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
AA
C (
mill
ion
m3)
23
These materials have been prepared by Management of the Company. No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved of the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the Company and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of the Company’s securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Securities of the Company may not be offered or sold in the United States absent their prior registration or qualification or an applicable exemption from the applicable registration or qualification requirements.
Investor Relations Contacts
Stephen Williams Dallyn Willis
Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Senior Director, Finance & Administration
604-648-4572 604-648-4595