investor presentation · 2020-02-27 · a world of difference. investor presentation february 27,...
TRANSCRIPT
©2020 Graphic Packaging International 2
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Any statements of the Company’s expectations in these slides, including but not limited to the amount of net organic volume growth per year, the start-up timing of the new
paperboard machine in Kalamazoo, MI and projected productivity improvements, expected increases in sales due to pricing and volume performance improvements, Adjusted
EBITDA and cash flow, as well as expected capital spending, pension expense and settlement charges, timing for payment of U.S. federal taxes, depreciation and amortization,
pension amortization, interest expense, effective tax rate, and net leverage, as well as targeted reductions in water usage, energy consumption, green house gases and low-density
polyethylene usage constitute "forward-looking statements" as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are based on currently available
information and are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company's present expectations. These risks and
uncertainties include, but are not limited to, inflation of and volatility in raw material and energy costs, cutbacks in consumer spending that reduce demand for the Company’s
products, continuing pressure for lower cost products, the Company’s ability to implement its business strategies, including productivity initiatives, cost reduction plans, and
integration activities, as well as currency movements and other risks of conducting business internationally, and the impact of regulatory and litigation matters, including the
continued availability of the Company’s net operating loss offset to taxable income, and those that impact the Company’s ability to protect and use its intellectual property. Undue
reliance should not be placed on such forward-looking statements, as such statements speak only as of the date on which they are made and the Company undertakes no
obligation to update such statements except as required by law. Additional information regarding these and other risks is contained in the Company's periodic filings with the SEC.
NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
This presentation includes certain financial measures that exclude or adjust for charges or income associated with business combinations, facility shutdowns, extended mill
outages, sales of assets and other special charges or income. The Company’s management believes that the presentation of these financial measures provides useful information
to investors because these measures are regularly used by management in assessing the Company’s performance. These financial measures are not calculated in accordance
with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (“GAAP”) and should be considered in addition to results prepared in accordance with GAAP, but should not be
considered substitutes for or superior to GAAP results. In addition, these non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures utilized by other
companies, since such other companies may not calculate such measure in the same manner as we do. A reconciliation of these measures to the most relevant GAAP measure is
available in our latest earnings press release which can be found in the Investors section on the Graphic Packaging website at www.graphicpkg.com.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING: INVESTMENT CASE
• REDEFINING INDUSTRY LEADERSHIP WITH VISION 2025
• CAPTURING SUSTAINABILITY SUPPORTED ORGANIC GROWTH
• CLEAR PATH TO DELIVER PRODUCTIVITY DRIVEN MARGIN IMPROVEMENT
• STRONG FINANCIAL FLEXIBLITY TO ACHIEVE VISION 2025
• BALANCED CAPITAL ALLOCATION MAXIMIZING STOCKHOLDER RETURN
©2020 Graphic Packaging International 3
©2020 Graphic Packaging International4
FOOD, BEVERAGE, FOODSERVICE & CONSUMER PRODUCTS PAPERBOARD PACKAGING LEADER
$6.2B2019 SALES
87% 11% 2%Americas Europe ROW
9 68 3.8MPaperboard Mills Converting
Plants
Tons
Produced
MARKETS
Food
Beverage
Foodservice
Consumer
37%
20%
23%
20%
©2020 Graphic Packaging International 5
KEY CUSTOMERS ACROSS FOOD, BEVERAGE, FOODSERVICE & CONSUMER PRODUCTS MARKETS
37%of all folding cartons
in North America
30%
©2020 Graphic Packaging International 6
SUSTAINED MARKET LEADERSHIP
#2 SBS Producer
22%5.4M ton U.S. market
#1 CUK Producer
58%2.8M ton U.S. market
#1 CRB Producer
52%1.9M ton U.S. market
of all paper cups in the U.S.
Source: PPC, AF&PA, RISI, GPI estimates
©2020 Graphic Packaging International 7
POWERFUL, VERTICALLY INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL
PRODUCTS WE USE EVERYDAYHIGHLY EFFICIENT CONVERTING & PACKAGING MACHINERY
68% vertical integration results in best-in-class EBITDA margins; significant opportunities to drive integration rates higher
LOW COST, HIGH QUALITY PAPERBOARD MILLS
Grow converting volume
8
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL OFFERS TREMENDOUS OPERATING LEVERAGE
• Europe
• Asia/Australia/New Zealand
• North America
• Sustainability supported organic
growth
• Targeted share gains/acquisitions
• Increase integration across all
paperboard grades
• Conversions into CRB, CUK, SBS to
optimize mix
• Add incremental capacity for growth
(when clearly required)
• Reduce costs
• Expand product offering to support
customer requirementsOutsource to support
additional demand
Fill the millsInvest in the mills
Model
Drives EBITDA
& Cash Flow
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
INVEST IN THE BUSINESSPURSUE TARGETED
ACQUISITIONS
9
RETURN CAPITAL TO STOCKHOLDERS
• Invest to drive 100-200 basispoints of organic growth peryear
• Drive productivity in excess oflabor & benefits inflation withinnormalized capital spend($325M per year)
• When capital spend exceedsnormalized levels, clearlyoutline project scope and returnprofile
• Target after-tax IRR’s in excessof the cost of capital
• Expand geographic reach andparticipation in growth nichesfor paperboard packaging
• Increase paperboard verticalintegration rates
• Extend runway for organiccapital deployment atcompelling IRR’s
• Purchase assets at post-synergy multiples below thelong-term valuation tradingmultiple
• Dividends
– $0.30/share
• Share repurchases
‒ Repurchase sharesopportunistically when share price is below intrinsic value of GPK
CAPITAL ALLOCATION PRIORITIES
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS & PRODUCTIVITY(2) TARGETED ACQUISITIONS
10
BALANCED APPROACH TO CAPITAL ALLOCATIONFROM 2015 TO 2019, $3.4B IN ADJ(1) OPERATING CASH FLOW
NET DEBT LEVERAGE RATIORatio consistently in desired 2.5x–3.0x range
STOCKHOLDER RETURNReturned significant value to stockholders
430M 538M ~11%Dividends Share
repurchases
Net reduction in
share count
$ $
Invested $1.5B in capital
~6% of sales driving $355M in productivity
$244 $295
$260
$395 $353
$74 $73 $57 $77 $74
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Acquired 14 businesses for ~$900M at compelling post synergy valuations
Combined with IP’s Consumer Packaging business in 2018 adding ~$200M in ADJ EBITDA and ~$75M synergies
Multiples
(Pre/Post)~8.5X ~5.6X
ADJ EBITDA
($M)~$100 ~$170
1.7B 4.2%Liquidity Current weighted
avg. interest rate
$ 2.6xYE19
(2) 2018 productivity includes $35m in synergies; 2019 productivity excludes $36M of incentives & pension
(3) Includes $23M for CRB consolidation
(5) (5)
(1) Operating cash flow in 2018 and 2019 adjusted to recognize net cash from receivables program
(4) Includes distributions to GPIP partner
(5) Share repurchases through 4Q’19
(3)
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
(4)
PRICE / COST RECOVERY OCCURRING
11
100-200 BPS / YEAR NET ORGANICVOLUME GROWTH MATERIALIZING
POISED FOR SALES, VOLUME, MARGIN & CASH GENERATION GROWTH
($8)
$131
($124)
($33)
2016-18 2019
Price
Cost Cost
From 9 to 6 months
Price
PRICE LAGS REDUCED
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
12
VISION 2025
Partners
People
Profit
Planet
GROW WITH THE BEST CUSTOMERS IN THE BEST MARKETS
GENERATE SUPERIOR RETURNS
LEVERAGE SUSTAINABILITY PROFILE & REDUCE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
ENGAGE EMPLOYEES IN A HIGH-PERFORMANCE CULTURE
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
13
VISION 2025
PartnersGrow with the best customers in the best markets
#1 paperboard market
share in North America &
Europe
$400M – $700M net new
product sales 2020-2025
included in organic growth
100 – 200 bps/year
sustainability supported,
organic growth
Strategic,
high return M&A
$400M – $500M in
productivity 2020-2025
to drive margin growth
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
14
VISION 2025
ProfitGenerate superior returns
2019 Vision 2025
Paperboard Integration 68% 80 – 90%
Sales $6.2B ~$10B
ADJ EBITDA Margins 16.7% 18 – 20%
ROIC 8% 10 – 12%
ADJ EPS $0.87 $2.00+
Normalized Capex (% Sales) 5% 5%
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
15
VISION 2025
Reduce water
usage by 15%
Reduce LDPE usage
by 40%
Reduce green house
gases by 15%
PlanetLeverage industry leading sustainability profile, reducing impact on the environment
4
Reduce energy
consumption by 15%
GPI products
100% recyclable
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
16
VISION 2025
PeopleEngage employees in a high-performance culture
Top quartile
engagement scores
Reduce LTIR from
0.3 to 0.2 (Safety)
GPI University
30 hours of training per
employee, per year
Attract and retain the right
talent
Play on a winning team
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
17
SUSTAINABILITY HAS BECOME A GLOBAL PHENOMENON & MANDATEWHAT BRANDS ARE SAYING….
Source: Goldman Sachs
“Tackling plastic waste is one of my top priorities and I take this challenge personally. We are doing our part to address the issue head on by reducing, recycling and reinventing our packaging.”
—Ramon Laguarta, CEO PepsiCo
Soft drink giants Coca-Cola & PepsiCo have announced they are cutting ties with a trade association representing the plastic industry over concerns their memberships contradict a commitment to reducing waste.
—Newsweek, July 2019
Starbucks is aiming to double the recycled content in [their] cup by 2022. It’s also testing more than 12 greener technologies for paper cup liners.
—CNN, February 2019
Pepsi has committed to using only recyclable, compostable or biodegradable packaging by 2025.
—CNN, July 2019
In Germany, Aldi scrapped single-use bags. Aligned to its pledge to cut down plastic packaging by 25% by 2024, the new compostable bags are made of biodegradable material.
—Forbes, July 2019
The Kellogg Company is expanding its global sustainability commitments to include a goal of working towards 100% reusable, recyclable or compostable packaging by the end of 2025.
—Kellogg Company PR, October 2018
[McDonald’s] wants to have 100% of its customer packaging come from renewable, recycled, or certified sources and have recycling available in all its restaurants [by 2025].
—USA Today, January 2018
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
18
GPI SUSTAINABILITY INITIATIVES SUPPORT CUSTOMER ASPIRATIONS
Source: Goldman Sachs; Molson Coors Sustainability Report 2019
100% by 2025
Renewable / Recyclable Sources
100% by 2025
PBP Recyclable / Reusable / Compostable
17% by 2025
PBP Recycled Content
100% by 2025
Recyclable / Reusable Materials
100% by 2024
Elimination of 10 Problematic Plastics
100% by 2025
Recyclable / Reusable / Compostable
25% by 2025
Recycled Content
100% by 2025Reusable / Recyclable / Compostable / Biodegradable
30% by 2025Recycled Content
100% by 2030Recyclable Packaging
50% by 2030Recycled Content
100% by 2025Recyclable Products
-15%
Water Usage
-15%
Green house gases
-15%
Energy
-40%
LDPE usage
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
19
PAPERBOARD PACKAGING WILL EMERGE AS A WINNERAMONG THE SOLUTIONS PREFERRED BY CONSUMERS
Paperboard Packaging
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
20
LARGE $5 BILLION ADDRESSABLE MARKET ESTIMATED IN NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE FOR PAPERBOARD CONVERSIONS
Foam Cups Plastic Cups Foam Containers
Beverage Packaging CPET Trays, Bowls Stand-up Pouches
$ $ $
$ $ $
1B 1B 1B
1B 500M 250M
CURRENT MARKET OFFERING
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
21
TARGETING 100-200 BASIS POINTS OF NET ORGANIC GROWTH PER YEAR(10-15% OF ADDRESSABLE MARKET FROM 2020 TO 2025)
Paperboard
bowls
Microwave
cooking
solutions
Insulated
paperboard cups
(hot & cold)Packaging
machinery &
beverage
carriers
Packaging
machinery &
food can
containers
PE-free
cups
High strength
packaging
Food
containers
Ship in own
container (SIOC)
TARGETED, INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS
Compostable
cups
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
22
GPI WILL SELL A PE-FREE CUP IN 2020 THAT IS COMMERCIALLY VIABLE FOR THE MARKETPLACE
Foam Cups
Major customers announced exits from foam Next gen plant-based lined cup; now more
cost effective
PE Coated Paperboard Cups PE-Free Cups (100% Plant-Based)
+40% cost premium to foam +50% cost premium to PE coated,
reduced to +10% to +15% at scale
Cost premium for 100% plant-based cup is currently ~50% more than a PE coated paper cup.
Expect to reduce the premium to 10-15% at scale with next gen PLA
2013 2019 2020
Recyclable
Renewable
Compostable
90% Renewable
Recyclable
Compostable
90% Renewable
Recyclable
Commercially
Compostable
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
CUMULATIVE GROWTH PLAN (CUSTOMER COMMITTED)
23
INSULATED PAPERBOARD CUP AND BOWL GROWTH IS ACCELERATING
• Consumers’ negativeperception of foam and plasticare driving replacementactions
• Lowest cost option with similarfunctional characteristics
$13M
$50M
$100M
$130M
2019 2020 Est. 2021 Est. 2022 Est.
Customer A Customer B Customer C Other
~$50MConversion from foam
food containers
~$10MPlastic bowl conversion
~$50MHot cup from foam to
paperboard
~$20MSingle wall paper and
polypropylene cups to
double wall cold cup
VALUE DRIVERS
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
CUMULATIVE GROWTH PLAN (CUSTOMER COMMITTED)
24
BEVERAGE PACKAGING GROWTH IN EUROPE IS ACCELERATING
• Beverage brands focused oneliminating plastic & waste
• Improved sustainability profile
• Enhanced premium impact /brand messaging
• Efficient high-speedmachinery solutions
$24M
$50M
$75M
$100M
$1M
$15M
$25M
$40M
2019 2020 Est. 2021 Est. 2022 Est.
Carton Machine
VALUE DRIVERS
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
TRACK RECORD OF ONGOING PRODUCTIVITY CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
25
TWO MAJOR SOURCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT AND MARGIN GROWTH
Mill Curtain Coaters Automation
Monroe Facility
50-70MPer Year
$ 100MAdditional Per Year
$
Kalamazoo
870kT
K1: 370kT
K2: 500kT
East Angus
100kT
White Pigeon
70kT
~1,050kTTotal CRB capacity
Kalamazoo
500kT
K1: 370kT
K3: 130kT
Battle
Creek
210kTEast Angus
100kT
Middletown
170kT
White
Pigeon
70kT
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
SNEEK FACILITY MONROE FACILITY
26
CURTAIN COATERS
ONGOING COMMITMENT TO GENERATING $50-70M IN PRODUCTIVITY EVERY YEAR
• Invested Capital: $25M
• Most productive and flexible folding carton
manufacturing facility in Europe
• Increase sales capacity by $40M to support
conversions from shrink/plastic to paperboard
• Expect ~$10M run-rate EBITDA
• Invested Capital: $180M
• State Of The Art Fully Automated
1.3M ft2 of manufacturing & warehouse space
• Strategically located near West Monroe
paperboard mill to reduce logistics costs
• 400K converting tons per year
• Expect ~$30M run-rate EBITDA
• Invested Capital: ~$115M
• Macon and Kalamazoo investments in place
• West Monroe planned over the next two years
• Significant reduction in Latex and TiO2 usage
• Expect ~$40M run-rate EBITDA
TRACK RECORD OF ONGOING PRODUCTIVITY
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
CURRENT CRB MILL SYSTEM POST CRB MILL CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM
27
CONSOLIDATE FROM 5 TO 3 CRB MILLS, RETAIN OPTIONALITY FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OR GROWTH
Note: Currently purchase ~70kT annually to support existing Mexico converting operations
Kalamazoo500kT
K1: 370kTK3: 130kT
Battle Creek210kT
East Angus100kT
Middletown170kT
Kalamazoo870kT
K1: 370kTK2: 500kT
East Angus100kT
White Pigeon70kT
White Pigeon70kT
~1,050kTTotal CRB capacity
~1,050kTTotal CRB capacity
CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
• Lowest basis weight andcaliper profile in NorthAmerica
• Higher quality paperboardenables internalconverting improvementsand external customerbenefits
• Significantly enhancessustainability profile
28
• Rare opportunity for alarge, highlydifferentiating investment
• Fully supports customermandates for high qualitysustainable paperboard
• High return on capitalemployed with valuedriven by cost reduction
• World-class paperboardtechnology
• Best in class coststructure
• Lowest ongoingmaintenance capital
• Leverage digitally nativetalent pool as populationof skilled machinistsshrinks
• Operating one large andtwo small mills focusesand simplifies operations
• One large mill reducesfinancial impact ofongoing maintenancedowntime and mill systemcomplexity
HIGHLY STRATEGIC AND UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO INVEST IN OUR CRB PLATFORM
CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
AN INVESTMENT
IN THE COREMORE
“FUTURE-PROOF”
FOCUSED, SIMPLIFIED
OPERATIONS
HIGHEST QUALITY
PRODUCT
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
ANNUAL FIXED COSTS VARIABLE COSTS
29
$100M REDUCTION IN ANNUAL FIXED AND VARIABLE COSTS
CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
~$70MCost Savings
~$30MCost Savings
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
30
UNMATCHED CRB COST STRUCTURE POST INVESTMENT
Source: RISI
GPI Mills
Competitor Mills
CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
GP
I K
ala
ma
zo
o
GP
I W
hite P
ige
on
GP
I E
ast A
ngu
s
GPI $400/ton
Competitors (Avg)
$532/ton
~$130/ton
advantage
Production = ~2.1M tons
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
QUANTIFIED BENEFITS FINANCIAL RETURNS
31
HIGHLY STRATEGIC AND UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO INVEST IN OUR CRB PLATFORM
Note (1) WACC = 7%
Not a material U.S. cash taxpayer until 2022
Fixed Cost Reduction
• ~$70M, versus today’s
footprint
—Close Middletown
—Close Battle Creek
—Close K3 machine
—300+ reduction in
workforce
Variable Cost Reduction
• ~$30M, at today’s
volumes
• Reduced commodity input
consumption
—Freight
—Chemicals
—Energy
—Coatings
—Fiber
CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
310M 12%
NPV IRR (after tax)
$
($200)
($150)
($100)
($50)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049
Unlevered Free Cash Flow from CRB Mills
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
32
COMPELLING POSITIVE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
*Information based on Legacy GPI / Source: Schneider Electric and GPK Management Estimates
CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
Current Future % Change
Green House Gases (Metric Tons)
497K 419K - 16%
Water Usage(Gallons/Ton)
916 614 - 33%
Purchased Energy(KWH/Ton)
1,901 1,562 - 18%
ANNUAL CRB PROFILE
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
FULL YEAR 2019 FINANCIAL RESULTS
(US$ M) 2019 2018 % Chg
Net Sales $6,160 $6,029 +2%
Adj. EBITDA $1,030 $971 +6%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 16.7% 16.1% +60bps
Adj. EPS $0.87 $0.81 +7%
Adj. Cash Flow $528 $469 +13%
Global Liquidity $1,710 $1,280 ------
Integration Rate(1) 68% 67% +100bps
2019 GROWTH & INVESTMENT
• Adj. EBITDA met upwardly revised target,growing +6% y/y
• Adj. EPS increased +7% y/y to $0.87
• Volume driven by acquisitions &sustainability supported net organicgrowth
• Price to commodity input cost relationshipimproved $98 million
• Capital investment back into business of$353M including initial $23M intransformational CRB investment
• $1.7B in global liquidity
• Integration rate increased 100bps to 68%
Adjusted figures represent non-GAAP measures. Please refer to Q4 and full year 2019 earnings press release for
reconciliations to equivalent GAAP measures.
(1) Integration rate is defined as paperboard we produce which is converted in manufacturing facilities we operate.
33©2020 Graphic Packaging International
2020 Est. Adj EBITDA $1,050M – $1,100M
Components
Price $10M – $20M
Volume(1)
Commodity Costs
Net Performance
L&B / Other(2)
$15M – $25M
($0M – $10M)
$65M – $75M
($50M – $60M)
FX $0M
34
(1) Includes EBITDA from Quad folding carton facility acquisition
(2) Other primarily includes inflation associated with insurance and property taxes
(3) Cash interest range assumes Company executes two acquisitions of $250M of minority interest in 2020
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
$0 ($55M) +$30M +$25M
Y/Y Net Maintenance Outage Cost Impact to Adj EBITDA
2020 EBITDA & CASH FLOW GUIDANCE COMPONENTS
2020 Est. Cash Flow $200M – $275M
Components
Cap Ex ($600M – $625M)
Interest ($140M – $160M)
Tax ($30M – $40M)
Working Capital ($10M – $30M)
Pension ($10M – $20M)
(3)
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
$353 $600 - $625
2019 2020E 2021E
$600
Normalized
$325
Cash flow expected to meaningfully increase in 2022
ACQUISITION OVERVIEW
• $40M purchase price; estimated $7M ofannualized EBITDA w/ synergies over 24 months
• Approximately 40K tons of paperboardconsumed annually, predominately CRB
• >100 basis point increase in paperboardintegration rate (68% to 69%) upon execution
• Facility strategically located close to manyexisting food, beverage and industrial customers
• Complementary food, beverage and industrialmarket participation
• Compelling post-synergy multiple and above costof capital return
QUAD/GRAPHICS, INC. OMAHA, NE FOLDING CARTON FACILITY ACQUISITION
©2020 Graphic Packaging International 35
TIMING AND LIQUIDITY
36
• Acquiring initial $250M of minority ownership interest per the agreement
• 15.1M partnership units at a price of $16.50
• To be funded from domestic revolving credit facility by 01/31/20
• Next potential $250M transaction is July 2020 per the agreement
• Assuming IP continues to reduce the ownership interest per the agreement, GPK does not expect to be a material U.S. Federal cash taxpayer until 2024
GPK/IP PARTNERSHIP
GPK/IP Partnership
Units
As of
12/31/19
% of
Ownership
Interest
As of
01/31/20
% of
Ownership
Interest
GPK Units 290.2 78.4% 290.2 81.7%
IP Units 79.9 21.6% 64.8 18.3%
Total 370.1 100.0% 355.0 100.0%
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
INITIAL $250M ACQUISITION RESULTS IN A 4% REDUCTION IN TOTAL PARTNERSHIP UNITS
37
MITIGATING EXPOSURE to MARKET and DEMOGRAPIC CHANGES
• Settling approximately $900M in pension obligations related to its largest U.S. pension plan
• Approximately $150M in pension obligations settled through lump sum payments in Q4 2019
• Approximately $750M in pension obligations to be transferred to annuity provider in Q1 2020
• Non-cash settlement charge of $39M in Q4 2019 related to lump sum payments; anticipate a
non-cash settlement charge of approximately $150M in Q1 2020 related to the transfer of the
liability to the annuity provider
U.S. PENSION PLAN SETTLEMENT
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
38
CONTINUED FOCUS ON A BALANCED CAPITAL ALLOCATION STRATEGY WILL BE KEY ENABLER OF ACHIEVING VISION 2025
2015–2019 Adjusted(1) Operating Cash Flow $3.4B
Capital, $1.5B, 45%
Acquisitions, $0.9B, 27%
Share Repurchases,
$0.5B, 15%
Dividends, $0.4B, 13%
$3.4B
(1) Operating cash flow in 2018 and 2019 adjusted to recognize net cash from receivables program. Reconciliation can be found in Company’s Q4 2019 press release.
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
39
EBITDA GROWTH DRIVERS
• Price/commodity input cost recovery
• 100 to 200 basis points of net organic volume growth
• Productivity greater than labor/benefits inflation
• Strategic capital investments in the business to drive significant cost reduction
• Strategic M&A to drive paperboard integration rates at returns above the cost of capital
MULTIPLE EBITDA GROWTH DRIVERS – ANNUALIZED ADJ. EBITDA >$1B
$971
$1,030
$1,050-$1,100
2018 2019 2020E
Adj. EBITDA $s in millions
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
COMMODITY ANNUAL CONSUMPTION 2019 REVENUE BY CURRENCY
41
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Categories Units
Wood (Million tons)
10
Recycled Fiber (Million tons)
1
Natural Gas (MMBTU)
22
Caustic Soda (000, tons)
40
Starch (Million lbs.)
150
TiO2 (Million lbs.)
25
Polyethylene (Million lbs.)
105
80.7%
2.2%
0.4%
0.8%
2.6%0.4%
2.0%5.6% 4.6% 0.7%
USD AUD NZD BRL CAD
CNY MXN GBP EUR JPY
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
Nearly 100% of revenue from defensive end-markets
• Food – 37%
• Beverage – 20%
• Foodservice – 23%
• Non-food consumer staples folding cartons and Other –20%
• North America – 85% of revenues
• Integrated mill to converting network
What happened in 2009?
• Core paper folding carton volume declined 3.6%
• Adj EBITDA improved $81M y/y to $556 million or 14%
─Altivity acquisition closed in March 2008 and added $26 million to EBITDA
─Excluding Altivity, EBITDA increased by $54 million y/y driven by positive price/cost spread, productivity, synergies realization
Adjusted EBITDA and Converting Volume
Beverage,
20%
Food, 37%
Foodservice,
23%
Non-food,
20%
End-Market ExposureRECESSION RESISTANT MODEL
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
Yo
Y %
Ch
an
ge
US
$,
M
Adjusted EBITDA Net Tons Sold Y/Y % Chg.
©2020 Graphic Packaging International 42
Note: SBS demand was down mid-to-high single digits in 2009, largely recovered in 2010
VISION 2025
GROW WITH THE BEST CUSTOMERS IN THE BEST MARKETS
GENERATE SUPERIOR RETURNS
LEVERAGE INDUSTRY LEADING SUSTAINABILITY PROFILE, REDUCING IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT
ENGAGE EMPLOYEES IN A HIGH-PERFORMANCE CULTURE
2019 Vision 2025
Paperboard Integration 68% 80% – 90%
Sales $6.2B ~$10B
ADJ EBITDA Margin 16.7% 18% – 20%
ROIC 8% 10% – 12%
ADJ EPS $0.87 $2.00+
Normalized Capex
(% of Sales) 5% 5%
#1 paperboard
market share in
North America
and Europe
$400M - $700M
net new product
sales 2020-2025
included in
organic growth
100 - 200
bps/year
sustainability
supported, organic
growth
Strategic, high
return M&A
$400M - $500M in
productivity 2020-
2025 to drive
margin growth
Reduce water
usage by 15%Reduce LDPE
usage by 40%
Reduce green
house gases
by 15%
4
Top quartile
engagement
scores
Play on a winning
team
Reduce LTIR from
0.3 to 0.2 (Safety)
GPI
University
30 hours
of training per
employee, per year
Attract and retain
the right talentReduce energy
consumption
by 15%
GPI products 100%
recyclable
©2020 Graphic Packaging International 43