investor letter q2/2020 · the recovery in global markets extended into may albeit again in a...

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JULY 2020 INVESTOR LETTER Q2/2020 For the quarter ending June 30, 2020, Tramondo GreyJung Global Opportunities CHF F, EUR F and USD F returned +0.01%, +0.03% and +0.38%, respectively, net of all fees. For the year-to- date period ending June 30, 2020 the Tramondo GreyJung Global Opportunities CHF F, EUR F and USD F returned +3.22%, +3.37% and +4.20%, respectively, net of all fees. Assets under management stand at CHF 35m. Please find below a summary of each month of the second quarter of 2020 and our outlook.. REVIEW After the severe shock in March, markets rebounded strongly in April albeit in a volatile fashion. Daily new infection rates started to fall and governments were planning to gradually reopen their economies next to very significant stimulus measures to reduce the damage caused by the economic shutdown, restoring some positive sentiment to markets. Given that we have been betting against the markets most of the time in anticipation of a failure of the recovery rally and have mistimed positions benefiting from a value style underperformance vs growth, we could still end the month on a positive note. On the positive side, this underlines our rigorous risk management process in terms of implementing a wrong assessment and still eking out gains for the month. On the disappointing side, we have not participated more in our equity book which is attributable to the many gap openings leaving little opportunity for us to build positions within the day with an attractive risk/reward. Thus, we generally kept a low allocation to this book throughout the month. Lastly, we could benefit from the substantial volatility in oil and our newly implemented strategic position in gold. The recovery in global markets extended into May albeit again in a choppy fashion. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with an increasing focus on the relaxation of lockdown measures. The month was dominated by a wide and trendless range in most asset classes with serious violations of uptrends during mid-month. Unfortunately, the only thing we had to witness was that these violations of key support levels on Monday 18th proved to be false breaks, underpinned by supportive vaccine news and a sharp rotation from growth to value stocks simultaneously. Prior, having returned slightly positive for the month with a solid positioning, one day changed the behavior of the markets and forced us to change the portfolio dynamics. We reduced our exposure to individual stocks, closed market-neutral trades, sold long duration exposure and switched to index futures. In addition, the trendless month was characterized by a considerable number of gaps on either side, which made it difficult for us to increase risk, while other asset classes did not yet offer attractive risk/return and our strategic gold position did not markedly mitigate the adverse effects. As a STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL / NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION Dear investors

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Page 1: INVESTOR LETTER Q2/2020 · The recovery in global markets extended into May albeit again in a choppy fashion. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with

JULY 2020

INVESTOR LETTER Q2/2020

For the quarter ending June 30, 2020, Tramondo GreyJung Global Opportunities CHF F, EUR F and USD F returned +0.01%, +0.03% and +0.38%, respectively, net of all fees. For the year-to-date period ending June 30, 2020 the Tramondo GreyJung Global Opportunities CHF F, EUR F and USD F returned +3.22%, +3.37% and +4.20%, respectively, net of all fees. Assets under management stand at CHF 35m.

Please find below a summary of each month of the second quarter of 2020 and our outlook..

REVIEW

After the severe shock in March, markets rebounded strongly in April albeit in a volatile fashion. Daily new infection rates started to fall and governments were planning to gradually reopen their economies next to very significant stimulus measures to reduce the damage caused by the economic shutdown, restoring some positive sentiment to markets. Given that we have been betting against the markets most of the time in anticipation of a failure of the recovery rally and have mistimed positions benefiting from a value style underperformance vs growth, we could still end the month on a positive note. On the positive side, this underlines our rigorous risk management process in terms of implementing a wrong assessment and still eking out gains for the month. On the disappointing side, we have not participated more in our equity book which

is attributable to the many gap openings leaving little opportunity for us to build positions within the day with an attractive risk/reward. Thus, we generally kept a low allocation to this book throughout the month. Lastly, we could benefit from the substantial volatility in oil and our newly implemented strategic position in gold.

The recovery in global markets extended into May albeit again in a choppy fashion. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with an increasing focus on the relaxation of lockdown measures. The month was dominated by a wide and trendless range in most asset classes with serious violations of uptrends during mid-month. Unfortunately, the only thing we had to witness was that these violations of key support levels on Monday 18th proved to be false breaks, underpinned by supportive vaccine news and a sharp rotation from growth to value stocks simultaneously. Prior, having returned slightly positive for the month with a solid positioning, one day changed the behavior of the markets and forced us to change the portfolio dynamics. We reduced our exposure to individual stocks, closed market-neutral trades, sold long duration exposure and switched to index futures. In addition, the trendless month was characterized by a considerable number of gaps on either side, which made it difficult for us to increase risk, while other asset classes did not yet offer attractive risk/return and our strategic gold position did not markedly mitigate the adverse effects. As a

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL / NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Dear investors

Page 2: INVESTOR LETTER Q2/2020 · The recovery in global markets extended into May albeit again in a choppy fashion. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with

result, the month finally left us slightly in the red due to a vicious change in market dynamics.

June closed what has been a strong quarter for global assets as central banks and governments pro-vided enormous amounts of stimulus and economies started to reopen. The month started by a buying climax move in “re-opening” and value stocks after economic data has shown signs of a sharp rebound. We took advantage by participating via European equities. While the value rotation turned out to be short lived and followed by a very sharp sell-off, we tactically moved in and out of our value biased exposure while we simultaneously increased our exposure to the Swiss market due to its relative strength by making new highs while others were still struggling. This commitment was not yet bearing fruit. Moreover, we initiated a strategic short USD-Index position and increased our strategic precious metals exposure, which has been the main driver of the return for the month.

For the quarter, our top contributors were long gold, long oil and a basket of global growth stocks while our worst contributors were our market neutral positions (long growth vs short value positions in the US and Europe).

During the first half of 2020, global markets seemed to be as violent as the last time during the Great Depression of the late 1920s. While we managed to perform strongly in the first quarter, our performance in the second quarter, albeit positive again, was indeed rather disappointing given the opportunities available. After a comprehensive review within the team of what went well and what did not go well, i.e. our lessons learned and reflection of a historical market rout, we are both very motivated and determined to successfully manage assets and to aim for strong results in the months, quarters and years to come.

OUTLOOK

Overall, we still retain a degree of caution as the pros and cons are balanced alongside significant stimulus while the risk of a second wave and an economic fallout persists. Seasonally, we face a difficult period after July with the upcoming presidential election on top of it in November.

Furthermore, the market is largely pricing in an event recession (usually 1-2 years of pain) while a shift towards a structural recession would include much more pain and this scenario is still not off the table (2-5+ years till we see new highs in equity markets). However, we acknowledge that the unprecedented policy response – particularly the willingness of central banks to intervene in credit markets – has shifted the balance of risks.

Our highest conviction ideas can be found across various asset classes. After having been bullish on gold for quite a while, we like to reiterate our positive view on gold and even silver (tactically) one more time. A weaker dollar will boost gold prices, while higher inflation down the road makes gold an attractive hedge, opportunity costs remain low and safe haven assets will be sought after. Additionally, we do like gold miners. The fundamentals and technicals for the precious metals complex are worth noting (please refer to the investment example for more information).

On the currency side we initiated a strategic short USD-Index position and tend to increase it over time. Unlike last year, the dollar no longer benefits from higher US interest rates. Indeed, US real rates are below those of many partner countries due to the fact that US inflation expectations are generally higher than elsewhere. The dollar is a countercyclical currency, meaning that it tends to move in the opposite direction of the global business cycle. If global growth recovers over the coming quarters, the dollar should weaken. The negative pressure on the dollar may be amplified by the fact that the second wave of the pandemic seems likely to affect the US more than most other large economies.

Regarding equities, the focus will be on the forthcoming earnings season during which we should get more insight into the status quo, trends and sentiment as well as the market's risk appetite. Specifically, we will be looking for confirmation of the existing tailwinds for companies supported by secular growth trends and, most importantly, the reaction of the market to earnings releases. Considering thematic investments, we like to own technology and health care related companies in general and will not shy away to increase exposure via indices or ETFs to style oriented themes such as growth or

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value as the market started to be more erratic regarding style exposure.

As previously mentioned in our letters, we always have a clear plan at hand of what we want to see and what we do not want to see and will adjust our portfolio accordingly. During what is likely to be a volatile quarter ahead of us, we remain flexible and open-minded and try to take advantage of opportunities where they arise - day by day. We will stick to our investment philosophy: "In investing, we cannot direct the wind but we can adjust the sails".

In our quarterly letters, we highlight the investments we have made to familiarize readers and investors with our approach. Accordingly, we have selected our highest conviction: Exposure to precious metals.

GOLD, SILVER AND GOLD MINERS

Gold is a currency - the currency of last resort which acts as an insurance against the known and unknown risks in the financial system. An insurance against a lasting loss of confidence in our monetary system underpinned by QE infinity. Both fundamentals and technicals are supportive and we do also like to own silver tactically over the coming months. Lastly, “Grey” underpins its attractiveness by always quoting the old adage: “There is no bull market like a gold bull market”.

Regarding gold miners the fundamentals and technicals have never been so positive. Much of the input costs, such as oil (20% of costs) and emerging market currencies (30% of the labour force is located in EM countries) have fallen significantly. In addition, while gold prices further edge higher all-in sustaining costs hover around USD 1’000 an ounce in the years ahead improving margins and which will lead to a doubling of free cash flow.

Please find thereafter charts of the precious metals complex:

GOLD, MONTHLY 2009 - 2020

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GOLD MINERS (GDX), WEEKLY 2011 - 2020

SILVER, WEEKLY 2015 – 2020

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LEGAL NOTICE

TRAMONDO INVESTMENT PARTNERS AG UNTER ALTSTADT 10CH-6302 ZUGT +41 710 76 76F +41 710 76 [email protected]

THIERRY [email protected]. +41 41 729 08 47

FLORIAN [email protected]. +41 41 729 08 34

This document has been prepared by Tramondo Investment Partners AG (the “Company”) regardless of specific or future investment objectives, a particular financial or tax situation or the individual needs of a particular recipient and is provided to you for the exclusive purpose of personal use and information only. It is based on specific facts and circumstances and prepared for a specific purpose. It is not intended to be, and may not be, relied on by any other person.

The information in this document constitutes neither a solicitation, an offer, nor a recom-mendation to any person in Switzerland or any other jurisdiction, to purchase, subscribe or sell any securities or other financial instruments, to use it as a sufficient basis for an investment decision or to conclude any legal act of any kind to this end. Furthermore, this presentation should not be construed as a financial, legal or tax advice.

The information and opinions expressed in this document were carefully collected, analyzed and composed by the Company based on publicly available information from trustworthy sources as of the date of the creation of the presentation. They are subject to change. The Company undertakes no obligation to update the information herein and it should be noted that significant events may have occurred since the date of the creation. Although the information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that the Company believes to be reliable, no guarantee is assumed that the information is accurate or complete. Any reference to past performance data is not necessarily indicative of current and future returns.

The calculated values are solely indicative. The effective allocation and results depend on investment activity and the development of investments and may differ from the model results. The implementation of an investment proposal can ultimately occur differently and deviate from the structure presented or the products mentioned.

Individual products or components of this document may have a certain complexity and a high risk (e.g. derivatives, alternative investments, structured investments). They are only intended for investors who understand and assume the risks involved. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to currency fluctuations, investments in emerging markets or in special products are exposed to special risks. An investment in a target described in this presentation should be made only after careful study of the most recent prospectus and a comprehensive due diligence on the targeted assets. The Company recommends that investors carefully assess and seek professional advice if needed with regard to financial, legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences before making a final investment decision or implementing a strategy. The investor assumes responsibility for the proper declaration of all assets and their tax assessment.

The Company reserves the right to change at any time the content of this document in part or entirely, at all times and without prior notice. Although the Company acts with due care to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this document, it cannot guarantee such. The Company or its employees assume no liability for any damages (neither tangible nor intangible) that arise through the use or non-use of the information contained herein, especially no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, reliability or comparability of the information contained herein relating to third parties that is based solely on publicly available information. Without prior written consent of the Company this document shall not be copied, referred to or disclosed, in whole or in part. This applies in particular to the Company’s logo.

Tramondo Investment Partners AG is incorporated in Switzerland and is FINMA licensed and regulated.

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