investor breakfast meeting - seb group...individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans...

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1 September 2011 Nomura Financials Conference Jan Erik Back Chief Financial Officer SEB

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Page 1: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

1 September 2011

Nomura Financials Conference

Jan Erik BackChief

Financial Officer

SEB

Page 2: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

222

SEB’s home markets relatively less affected

SEB retains resilience and flexibility

Strategic priorities remain

Page 3: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

3

European sovereigns SEB’s home markets enjoy strong sovereign finances

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

GreeceItaly

BelgiumIreland

PortugalGermany

FranceUK

HungaryAustria

MaltaNetherland

CyprusSpain

PolandFinlandNorway

LatviaDenmarkSweden

LithuaniaSlovenia

LuxemburgEstonia

Sovereign debt, % of GDP

-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

IrelandGreece

UKSpain

PortugalPolandLatvia

LithuaniaFrance

SloveniaNetherlands

CyprusAustria

ItalyHungaryBelgium

MaltaGermanyDenmark

FinlandLuxemburg

SwedenEstonia Norway

Deficit, % of GDP

Page 4: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

In May 2011In Aug 2011

GDP growth forecast SEB's

home markets and Eurozone, in per cent

Forecast

for 2012Forecast

for 2011 Forecast

for 2013

Source: Nordic Outlook August 30 2011

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Sweden

Norway

Denmark

Finland

Germany

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Eurozone

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Page 5: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

55Source: SEB's Chief Financial Officers‘ confidence survey, addressed to about 100 of the largest companies in Sweden (Aug 2011)

Economic sentiment relatively firm

354045505560657075

Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11

SEB's Financial Officers Survey 2007-2011 “Business Climate”

Swedish corporate lending growth vs. economic sentiment

Source: Datastream, SEB Enskilda

-10-505

101520

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

758595105115

Corporate lending growth, y-o-y % - lagged by 12 months (LHS) Economic sentiment (RHS)

Page 6: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

6

Swedish banks less affected CDS spreads, bps

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

EU banks Danske Bank DnBNOR Handelsbanken Nordea Swedbank SEB

Page 7: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

7

Swedish TED-spreads

still far below 2008 levels

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Graph shows spread between 3 month STIBOR and a 3 month Swedish treasury bill

Page 8: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

8

Lending still growing

Swedish lending growth (y-o-y) Nordic corporate lending growth (y-o-y)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Non-financial Companies and HouseholdsCorporate lending

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Sweden NorwayDenmark Finland

Source: Central banks, as of July 2011Source: Statistic Sweden, as of July 2011

Page 9: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

9

Swedish house market cooling off

Mortgage lending growth (y-o-y) House price development (y-o-y)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Source: Valueguard

HOX IndexSource: Statistic Sweden, as of July 2011

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Houses Sweden Houses StockholmHouses Gothenburg Houses MalmoeFlats Sweden Flats StockholmFlats Gothenburg Flats Malmoe

Houses

Flats

Page 10: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

10

Conclusions

On an absolute and relative basis, SEB operates in a region which continues to show strong performance

The stress in the financial markets is markedly lower than in the rest of Europe

The uncertainty on the future impact is nevertheless high

10

Page 11: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

111111

SEB’s home markets relatively less affected

SEB retains resilience and flexibility

Strategic priorities remain

Page 12: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

121212

Balance sheet stronger than ever

Highlights

Core Tier 1

Operating profit SEK 4.3bn

Operating profit

Continued progress of corporate expansion plan

Credit volume

13.5%

+91bn

Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11

Page 13: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

13

Q2 financial

wrap-upProfit and loss development Q2-09 –

Q2-11 (SEK bn)

Operating income Operating expenses Net credit lossesQ2-11 Q2-11 Q2-11

Operating profit (SEK bn)

3.6

Highlights

from results:

Divisional pre-provision profit Q2 vs. Q1 +7%

Group total income H1-11 vs. H1-10 +7%

Customer-driven NII Q2 vs. Q1 +7%

Negative result

effects

in Q2:

NII: SEK 50m German hedge QoQ, SEK 70m investment portfolio, SEK 100m funding & liquidity

NFI: SEK 200m portfolio valuations directly related to GIIPS exposures

4.3

Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11

9.55.9

0.6

Page 14: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

14

NII dynamics

Customer driven NII, SEK bn Funding and Other, SEK m

Customer driven NII shows positive trend while sale of German Retail materially impacted overall NII

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0

Q108

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111

Q2

Lending Deposits

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Q108

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111

Q2

Funding & other Sale GRB

Page 15: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

15

Geography based on SEB's operations

NB: Jun ‘11 FX rates applied historically

+8% YoY

0% YoY

-2% YoY

Lending 336 330 343 362Cont. liab's 239 249 293 283Derivatives 28 36 25 22Total 603 615 661 667

Growth

in corporate lending SEB Group, corporate credit

portfolio (SEK bn)

+12% YoY

Changed dynamics

Committed facilities +22 per cent in 2010Lending at a trough in the summer of 2010, now +10% YoY

456 461 505 515

91 103 107 10157 51 49 51603 615 661 667

Dec '09 Jun '10 Dec '10 Jun '11

Nordic & Other Germany Baltics

Page 16: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

16

0

5

10

15

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11

Non Net Interest Income Net Interest Income

12.5

8.09.6

8.4

11.910.8

9.1 9.2 8.7 9.2

59%59%64%54%60%49%58%52%59%53%

41%41%36%46%

40%51%42%

48%41%47%

8.9

53%

47%

Total operating income

split between

Non-NII

and NII

10.0

55%

45%

9.7

44%

56%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11

Custody, mutual funds, net life, payments cards, lendingNew issues & advisory, secondary market and derivatives

Underlying market shares render stable and growing commission and net life incomeSEK bn

SEK bn

44%

56%

9.5

Well-diversified revenue streams

Page 17: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

17

SEB’s

financial

position –

2008 vs H1 2011

Core

Tier

1*

Matched

funding

Leverage

ratio

(FDIC)

2008 2009 2010 Jun 2011

8.6%

11.7% 12.8% 13.5%13.5%

23x18x 17x 16x16x

7 months

17 months 18 months26 months26 months

Bond inv

portfolio

SEK 133bnSEK 90bn

SEK 48bn SEK 34bnSEK 34bn

* Basel II without transitional floor; 2010 pro forma for disposal of German retail

NPLs SEK 15bn

SEK 29bn SEK 24bn SEK 22bnSEK 22bn

17

Page 18: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

18

A strong capital situation

Core Tier 1 ratio (%) Equity to assets/leverage ratio (%)

Capital ratios well above European average support strong funding access

Basel II

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

Q108

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111

Q2 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Q108

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111

Q2

US FDIC

Equity to assets

Page 19: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

19

Extended match-funding in Q2 ahead of potential summer break-down

Matched funding. Note this is a cash flow based model where assets and liabilities are mapped to contractual maturities. SEB will manage more than 2 years without any new funding if the loans and liabilities mature without prolongation.

SEB’s matched funding horizon (number of months)

SEK 78bn LT funding raised in H1 2011 vs FY maturity of SEK 98bn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q108

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111

Q2

Page 20: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

20

Upgraded, smaller bond portfolio

Bond portfolio has decreased by SEK 80bn since mid 2008

Structural shift from unsecured financials and structured bonds into sovereign and covered bonds

Investment portfolio reduced from SEK 126bn mid 2008 to SEK 34bn in mid 2011

GIIPS exposure limited to 5% -

majority in Spanish covered bonds

Bond portfolio, SEK bnKey characteristics(incl. Treasury and Trading portfolios)

0

100

200

300

400

Q2 08 Q2 11Gov't

and public sector Covered bondsFinancials ABSCorporates

Page 21: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

21

Active downsizing of bond exposure to GIIPS countriesGIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn Majority in Spanish covered bonds

Limited in relation to total Bond portfolio

* 8 July

Other95%

GIIPS5%

Bank bonds2%

ABS28%

Covered bonds59%

Sovereign bonds11%

26

2119 18 17 16

Jun2010

Sep2010

Dec2010

Mar2011

Jun2011

Jul2011*

Page 22: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

22

Continued improvement of asset quality without reducing the reserve ratio too fastLevel of impaired loans net (%) Reserve ratio individually assessed (%)

Reserve ratio is total reserves (specific & collective) in relation to total gross individually assessed impaired loans

SEB’s impaired loans peaked two years ago and have been falling since. SEB’s reserve ratio at 65% remains the highest among peers.

Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Q108

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111

Q2 20

40

60

80

100

Q108

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111

Q2

Page 23: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

232323

SEB’s home markets relatively less affected

SEB retains resilience and flexibility

Strategic priorities remain

Page 24: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

2424

Exploit core strengths

Maintain flexibility & resilience

Corporates in Nordics & Germany Universal bank in Sweden & Baltics

Priorities for 2011

Page 25: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

25

Great position for growth in areas of strength

Growth strategyPrerequisites

Core relationship growth

Geographic growth

Segment growth

No ailing businesses

Desired business mix in place

One SEB business model

Strong capital position

Scalable platform

Investments in Nordic & German wholesale franchise and SMEs and savings in Sweden

Page 26: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

2626

Loans and commitments:

Large corporates Nordic and German expansion* continues

26

Large cap clients:

Client executives:

+91bn

Top FX-provider Best supplier of Trading and Capital Markets Operations

Mandated lead arranger EUR 1,300m

Mandated lead arranger EUR 2,000m

MLA/bookrunner

EUR 750m

MLA/bookrunner

EUR 2,000m

Best Sub-custodian Bank Best Supply Chain Finance Provider

+94

+136

Best Bank

Best M&A House

Best Cash Management House

* Statistics since launch of expansion 1 Jan 2010

Page 27: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

27

SMEs and private customers Meeting

customers’ advisory

needs*

Priv

ate

SM

Es

** Cash management SME customers

+7bn private deposits

48% fixed-rate

mortgages

+0.1%market share

gain

per month

5,000 new SME customers**

+17bn Private Banking AuM

inflow

No. SME customers**

Mutual

fund

sales

Sweden***

*** Cumulative incl

PPM (Svensk

Fondstatistik)

+14bn new lending

volume

* Statistics for H1 2011

020,00040,00060,000

80,000100,000120,000

2005 2007 2009 Q2 2011

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

2005 2007 2009 2011

SEB

Page 28: Investor breakfast meeting - SEB Group...Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2 20

282828

Balance sheet strength ensures SEB can continue to support customers

Elevated short-term macroeconomic risks

SEB maintains its strategic direction and growth plans are on track

Outlook 2011