investor breakfast meeting - seb group...individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans...
TRANSCRIPT
1 September 2011
Nomura Financials Conference
Jan Erik BackChief
Financial Officer
SEB
222
●
SEB’s home markets relatively less affected
●
SEB retains resilience and flexibility
●
Strategic priorities remain
3
European sovereigns SEB’s home markets enjoy strong sovereign finances
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
GreeceItaly
BelgiumIreland
PortugalGermany
FranceUK
HungaryAustria
MaltaNetherland
CyprusSpain
PolandFinlandNorway
LatviaDenmarkSweden
LithuaniaSlovenia
LuxemburgEstonia
Sovereign debt, % of GDP
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
IrelandGreece
UKSpain
PortugalPolandLatvia
LithuaniaFrance
SloveniaNetherlands
CyprusAustria
ItalyHungaryBelgium
MaltaGermanyDenmark
FinlandLuxemburg
SwedenEstonia Norway
Deficit, % of GDP
4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
In May 2011In Aug 2011
GDP growth forecast SEB's
home markets and Eurozone, in per cent
Forecast
for 2012Forecast
for 2011 Forecast
for 2013
Source: Nordic Outlook August 30 2011
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Eurozone
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
55Source: SEB's Chief Financial Officers‘ confidence survey, addressed to about 100 of the largest companies in Sweden (Aug 2011)
Economic sentiment relatively firm
354045505560657075
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11
SEB's Financial Officers Survey 2007-2011 “Business Climate”
Swedish corporate lending growth vs. economic sentiment
Source: Datastream, SEB Enskilda
-10-505
101520
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
758595105115
Corporate lending growth, y-o-y % - lagged by 12 months (LHS) Economic sentiment (RHS)
6
Swedish banks less affected CDS spreads, bps
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
EU banks Danske Bank DnBNOR Handelsbanken Nordea Swedbank SEB
7
Swedish TED-spreads
still far below 2008 levels
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Graph shows spread between 3 month STIBOR and a 3 month Swedish treasury bill
8
Lending still growing
Swedish lending growth (y-o-y) Nordic corporate lending growth (y-o-y)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Non-financial Companies and HouseholdsCorporate lending
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Sweden NorwayDenmark Finland
Source: Central banks, as of July 2011Source: Statistic Sweden, as of July 2011
9
Swedish house market cooling off
Mortgage lending growth (y-o-y) House price development (y-o-y)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Source: Valueguard
HOX IndexSource: Statistic Sweden, as of July 2011
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Houses Sweden Houses StockholmHouses Gothenburg Houses MalmoeFlats Sweden Flats StockholmFlats Gothenburg Flats Malmoe
Houses
Flats
10
Conclusions
On an absolute and relative basis, SEB operates in a region which continues to show strong performance
The stress in the financial markets is markedly lower than in the rest of Europe
The uncertainty on the future impact is nevertheless high
10
111111
●
SEB’s home markets relatively less affected
●
SEB retains resilience and flexibility
●
Strategic priorities remain
121212
Balance sheet stronger than ever
Highlights
Core Tier 1
Operating profit SEK 4.3bn
Operating profit
Continued progress of corporate expansion plan
Credit volume
13.5%
+91bn
Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11
13
Q2 financial
wrap-upProfit and loss development Q2-09 –
Q2-11 (SEK bn)
Operating income Operating expenses Net credit lossesQ2-11 Q2-11 Q2-11
Operating profit (SEK bn)
3.6
Highlights
from results:
Divisional pre-provision profit Q2 vs. Q1 +7%
Group total income H1-11 vs. H1-10 +7%
Customer-driven NII Q2 vs. Q1 +7%
Negative result
effects
in Q2:
NII: SEK 50m German hedge QoQ, SEK 70m investment portfolio, SEK 100m funding & liquidity
NFI: SEK 200m portfolio valuations directly related to GIIPS exposures
4.3
Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11
9.55.9
0.6
14
NII dynamics
Customer driven NII, SEK bn Funding and Other, SEK m
Customer driven NII shows positive trend while sale of German Retail materially impacted overall NII
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
Q108
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111
Q2
Lending Deposits
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Q108
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111
Q2
Funding & other Sale GRB
15
Geography based on SEB's operations
NB: Jun ‘11 FX rates applied historically
+8% YoY
0% YoY
-2% YoY
Lending 336 330 343 362Cont. liab's 239 249 293 283Derivatives 28 36 25 22Total 603 615 661 667
Growth
in corporate lending SEB Group, corporate credit
portfolio (SEK bn)
+12% YoY
Changed dynamics
Committed facilities +22 per cent in 2010Lending at a trough in the summer of 2010, now +10% YoY
456 461 505 515
91 103 107 10157 51 49 51603 615 661 667
Dec '09 Jun '10 Dec '10 Jun '11
Nordic & Other Germany Baltics
16
0
5
10
15
Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11
Non Net Interest Income Net Interest Income
12.5
8.09.6
8.4
11.910.8
9.1 9.2 8.7 9.2
59%59%64%54%60%49%58%52%59%53%
41%41%36%46%
40%51%42%
48%41%47%
8.9
53%
47%
Total operating income
split between
Non-NII
and NII
10.0
55%
45%
9.7
44%
56%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11
Custody, mutual funds, net life, payments cards, lendingNew issues & advisory, secondary market and derivatives
Underlying market shares render stable and growing commission and net life incomeSEK bn
SEK bn
44%
56%
9.5
Well-diversified revenue streams
17
SEB’s
financial
position –
2008 vs H1 2011
Core
Tier
1*
Matched
funding
Leverage
ratio
(FDIC)
2008 2009 2010 Jun 2011
8.6%
11.7% 12.8% 13.5%13.5%
23x18x 17x 16x16x
7 months
17 months 18 months26 months26 months
Bond inv
portfolio
SEK 133bnSEK 90bn
SEK 48bn SEK 34bnSEK 34bn
* Basel II without transitional floor; 2010 pro forma for disposal of German retail
NPLs SEK 15bn
SEK 29bn SEK 24bn SEK 22bnSEK 22bn
17
18
A strong capital situation
Core Tier 1 ratio (%) Equity to assets/leverage ratio (%)
Capital ratios well above European average support strong funding access
Basel II
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
Q108
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111
Q2 0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Q108
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111
Q2
US FDIC
Equity to assets
19
Extended match-funding in Q2 ahead of potential summer break-down
Matched funding. Note this is a cash flow based model where assets and liabilities are mapped to contractual maturities. SEB will manage more than 2 years without any new funding if the loans and liabilities mature without prolongation.
SEB’s matched funding horizon (number of months)
SEK 78bn LT funding raised in H1 2011 vs FY maturity of SEK 98bn
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q108
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111
Q2
20
Upgraded, smaller bond portfolio
Bond portfolio has decreased by SEK 80bn since mid 2008
Structural shift from unsecured financials and structured bonds into sovereign and covered bonds
Investment portfolio reduced from SEK 126bn mid 2008 to SEK 34bn in mid 2011
GIIPS exposure limited to 5% -
majority in Spanish covered bonds
Bond portfolio, SEK bnKey characteristics(incl. Treasury and Trading portfolios)
0
100
200
300
400
Q2 08 Q2 11Gov't
and public sector Covered bondsFinancials ABSCorporates
21
Active downsizing of bond exposure to GIIPS countriesGIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn Majority in Spanish covered bonds
Limited in relation to total Bond portfolio
* 8 July
Other95%
GIIPS5%
Bank bonds2%
ABS28%
Covered bonds59%
Sovereign bonds11%
26
2119 18 17 16
Jun2010
Sep2010
Dec2010
Mar2011
Jun2011
Jul2011*
22
Continued improvement of asset quality without reducing the reserve ratio too fastLevel of impaired loans net (%) Reserve ratio individually assessed (%)
Reserve ratio is total reserves (specific & collective) in relation to total gross individually assessed impaired loans
SEB’s impaired loans peaked two years ago and have been falling since. SEB’s reserve ratio at 65% remains the highest among peers.
Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Q108
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111
Q2 20
40
60
80
100
Q108
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111
Q2
232323
●
SEB’s home markets relatively less affected
●
SEB retains resilience and flexibility
●
Strategic priorities remain
2424
Exploit core strengths
Maintain flexibility & resilience
Corporates in Nordics & Germany Universal bank in Sweden & Baltics
Priorities for 2011
25
Great position for growth in areas of strength
Growth strategyPrerequisites
Core relationship growth
Geographic growth
Segment growth
No ailing businesses
Desired business mix in place
One SEB business model
Strong capital position
Scalable platform
Investments in Nordic & German wholesale franchise and SMEs and savings in Sweden
2626
Loans and commitments:
Large corporates Nordic and German expansion* continues
26
Large cap clients:
Client executives:
+91bn
Top FX-provider Best supplier of Trading and Capital Markets Operations
Mandated lead arranger EUR 1,300m
Mandated lead arranger EUR 2,000m
MLA/bookrunner
EUR 750m
MLA/bookrunner
EUR 2,000m
Best Sub-custodian Bank Best Supply Chain Finance Provider
+94
+136
Best Bank
Best M&A House
Best Cash Management House
* Statistics since launch of expansion 1 Jan 2010
27
SMEs and private customers Meeting
customers’ advisory
needs*
Priv
ate
SM
Es
** Cash management SME customers
+7bn private deposits
48% fixed-rate
mortgages
+0.1%market share
gain
per month
5,000 new SME customers**
+17bn Private Banking AuM
inflow
No. SME customers**
Mutual
fund
sales
Sweden***
*** Cumulative incl
PPM (Svensk
Fondstatistik)
+14bn new lending
volume
* Statistics for H1 2011
020,00040,00060,000
80,000100,000120,000
2005 2007 2009 Q2 2011
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
2005 2007 2009 2011
SEB
282828
Balance sheet strength ensures SEB can continue to support customers
Elevated short-term macroeconomic risks
SEB maintains its strategic direction and growth plans are on track
Outlook 2011