investor & analyst update 17th november 2004 · 2013-03-07 · lp-2 / cmmc strong price outlook...

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3Q 04 results and comment INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17 th November 2004

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Page 1: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

3Q 04 results and commentINVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE

17th November 2004

Page 2: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

2

1. Summary

2. Focus: BLCP

3. Operational review

4. Commercial review

5. Financial review

Page 3: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

3

1. Summary

Somruedee SomphongChief Financial Officer

Page 4: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

4

Net profit of Bt 1,193m in 3Q04

Gross margin 40%, up from 37% in 2Q04

Coal sales 4.1 million tonnes

Average selling price US$26.3 per tonne(up 13% QoQ)

Summary

Page 5: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

5

Growth

Restructuring

2001 2002 2003 1H2004

COCO shares

sold

Portactivity

sold

Indocoalacquisition(ph.1)

Indocoalconsolidation

(ph.2)

Industrial Mineralssell-down

TECO share sold to RATCH

Indominco-Bontang

acquisition +35%

FurtherRegional

growth

RATCH/EGCOMoU with EGATre: sale/purchase

ATCDivestment 4% in 2003,

14% remaining stake

ChinaInvestmentAACI, 18.8%

ChinaAACI, Increased to 20.9%

Industrial Mineralssell-down

BharintoAcquisition 99%

MoU with EGATcalled off

ATCDivestment

1.9% in 1H04, 12.1% remaining stake

ATCDivestment 1.3% in 3Q04,

10.7% remaining stake

3Q2004

Progress to date

Page 6: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

6

2. Focus: BLCP

Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer

Page 7: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

7

BLCP now 17.5% completed

• Location: Map Taput Industrial Estate

• Capacity: 1,434 MW

• Fuel: Coal (approximately 3 Mtpa.)

• COD: Oct 06 and Feb 07(c. 700MW each unit)

• Status (Nov 04): c.17.5% completion (procurement of construction materials secured)

Page 8: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

8

BLCP has a strong financial structure

• PPA:

• Tariff structure:

• BOI:

• Project cost:

• D/E ratio:

25 years with EGAT

AP covers fixed costs; EP covers variable (incl. fuel) costs

Tax-free for first 8yrs after COD; 15% tax rate for 5yrs after that

US$ 1.34 billion

3:1

Page 9: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

9

BLCP is climbing up the value curve

Development approval

Heads of agreement

(major contracts)

FinancialClosure

Technical completion

COD

100%

50%

7.5%

25%

75%

90%

Project stage of development

NPV

ILLUSTRATIVE ONLYSource: Bank of America

20%completionNOVEMBER 2004

Value?NOVEMBER 2004

Page 10: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

10

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

MW

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: Ministry of Energy

4,903 MW

4 x 700 MW

3 x 700 MW

3 x700 MW

3 x700 MW

3 x 700 MW

920 MWNam Thuen

700 MWBangpakong

cc no.5

700 MWN.Bangkok

700 MWS.Bangkok

700 MWUnion Power

No.2

700 MWSongkhla

700 MWGulf Power

700 MWUnion Power

No.1

385 MWKhanom

1,400 MWBLCP

80 MWSPP

500 MWLamtakong

108 MWSPP

300 MWKrabi

122 MWLan Krabue

13 – 14,000 MWs ?

(700 MW)Ph.1

BLCP

EGAT

Independent

THAILAND NEW POWER PLANT COD

BLCP is the largest new IPP since 2001

Page 11: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

11

There is potential for more coal-fired IPPs longer term

Source: Ministry of Energy

250

200

150

100

50

TWh

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

72%47%

5%

15%

7%

7%

5%

? ?? ? ?

35% 90 TWh???

imported coal

lignite

hydroother

new poweron-stream

planning &financing

construction

natural gas

BLCP kicks-in

Preparation and planning for new capacity starts now !

THAILAND POWER SUPPLY BY FUEL TYPE

Page 12: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

12

More than 50% of power generation in Asia is coal-fired

Source: IEEJ Asia Energy Outlook March 2004

WORLD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

%

Coal-fired

Gas-firedHydro

Oil-fired

Other renewables

Nuclear

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

% Coal-fired

Gas-firedHydro

Oil-fired

Other renewables

Nuclear

ASIA

Page 13: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

13

Thailand’s reliance on coal-fired power is low

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020

Other Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

CoalSource: IEEJ Asian/World energy outlook 2004

INDIGENOUS COAL RESOURCESMORE LESS

China India Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia Japan Korea Taiwan

?

Page 14: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

14

CW intakePower plant

Coal stock yard

BLCP : Aerial view

Page 15: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

15

BLCP : Aerial view

Coal unloading port

Coal stock yard

Power plant

Page 16: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

16

StackControl roomTurbine / Generator

Intake

BLCP : Power plant

Page 17: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

17

BLCP : Power plant

Control building

Boiler structure

Page 18: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

18

BLCP : Manufacturing work in Japan

LP Rotor

Page 19: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

19

3. Operational review

Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer

Page 20: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

20

Banpu’s total coal reserves are approx 156 Mt*

Mampun Pandan14 mt

Barasentosa25 mt

BharintoReserves 40 Mt.

BharintoReserves 40 Mt.

TrubaindoReserves 52 Mt.Resources 21 Mt.

TrubaindoReserves 52 Mt.Resources 21 Mt.

Indominco-BontangReserves 34 Mt.Indominco-BontangReserves 34 Mt.

Kitadin-EmbalutReserves 28 Mt.Resources 72 Mt.

Kitadin-EmbalutReserves 28 Mt.Resources 72 Mt.

JorongReserves 32 Mt.Resources 8 Mt.

JorongReserves 32 Mt.Resources 8 Mt.

LP-29 Mt

CMMC2 Mt

Operation

Project

Daning21% x 56% x 79 Mt.

Daning21% x 56% x 79 Mt.

* Total 156 mt excluding Daning and Bharinto

Page 21: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

21

Trubaindo to bring additional 3 Mtpa production in 2005

Indominco-Bontang8.0 mt

Jorong3.0 mt

Kitadin-Embalut1.8 mt

LP-22.1 mt

CMMC0.6 mt

Daning4.0 mt

Operational 2005

Trubaindo3.0 mt

Operational 4Q04

Production est. 2005

Production est. 2004, 2005

Note: tonnages shown are total gross production targets; they do not take into account Banpu’s equity ownership

Page 22: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

22

Total production for 2004 is on target

Indominco-Bontang

Kitadin-Embalut

Jorong

LP-2 / CMMC

Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR;

stock build-up is underway

Higher SR due to mining at flatter pitwall;

Production target is adjusted down due to technical difficulties

Good progress in overburden removal has helped smooth

production

Economy of scale achieved through strong production

1.6 2.0 2.2 2.2

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4e

SR 7.4:1 9.9:1 9.7:1

.6 .5 .5 0.2

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4e

SR 8.2 5.6 8.8

0.9

Q4e

.6 .8 .7

Q1 Q2 Q3

SR 3.7 4.7 5.5

0.9

Q4e

.5 .7

Q1 Q2

SR 4.3 3.4

2004e3.0mt

2004e1.8mt

.6

Q3

4.5

2004e2.7mt

2004e8.0mt

Page 23: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

23

New coal projects on schedule

Project

Location

Banpu %

Reserves

Operational

Peak production

Coal type

Status

Trubaindo

Kalimantan, Indonesia

95%

52 mt

4Q04

5.0 mt (2006)

6,950 kcal/kg

Operational in 4Q04

Daning

Shanxi Province, China

c.21%

79 mt

Late 2005

4.0 mt (2005)

Anthracite

Under construction (on-schedule)

Page 24: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

24

Trubaindo : Loading port

Page 25: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

25

Trubaindo : Coal stock yard

Reclaiming pit

Page 26: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

26

Trubaindo : Coal hauling road

Page 27: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

27

Concrete form work

Trubaindo : Kedang Pahu Bridge

Page 28: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

28

Trubaindo : Crushing plant

Dump Hopper, Primary Crusher

Secondary Crusher

Radius Stacker

Page 29: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

29

Trubaindo : Coal stock

Temporary ROM Stockpile Mine Operation Seam 3000

Coal Getting Seam 3000 Coal Getting Seam 3000

Page 30: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

30

4. Commercial review

Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer

Page 31: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

31

c.45% of sales (by value) are to premium Asian markets

Philippines7%

Indonesia2%

Japan, Korea,

Taiwan, Hong Kong

45%

India10%

Italy10%

Thailand25%

Others1%

Coal sales by value: Bt4,738m in 3Q04

-

0.5

1.0

1.5Thai minesJorongKitadin-EmbalutIndominco-Bontang

Japa

n,

Kor

ea,

Taiw

an, H

K

Thai

land

Indi

a

Italy

Phi

lippi

nes

Indo

nesi

a

Oth

ers

Coal sales by volume: 4.1 Mt in 3Q04Mt

29%

36%

12%

9%

5%

9%

1%

Page 32: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

32

Coal prices soften but still high relative to historical level

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

BJI*

Note: *Barlow Jonker Index (BJI) based on CV 6,700 kcal/kg GAD from Australia to JapanSource: Barlow Jonker

Avg. October ’04:$53.50

US$/Tonne

Recent prices trend

Coal price softens due to easing fears of supply shocks

Short-term outlook

Prices in 2005 are likely to stay high relative to historical trend

Main drivers

Fluctuation in Chinese export will influence price outlook for Asia-Pacific region

Page 33: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

33

But, Banpu average selling price to increase in 2005

Banpu’s coal selling prices are on the uptrend while benchmark prices have peaked

ASP 2004 is expected at $25.5 per tonne (+15% from 2003)

ASP 2005 is expected to rise by at least 20% from 2004

10

20

30

40

50

60

1Q02

2Q02

3Q02

4Q02

1Q03

2Q03

3Q03

4Q03

1Q04

2Q04

3Q04

4Q04

E1Q

05E

BJI

Weighted avg

Indominco

US$/Tonne

Page 34: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

34

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 2005

Unpriced

Base price 2004

Base price 2003

Base price 2002

Because over 50% of 2005 volumes already secured

43%

15%

51%

49%44%

56%

1%

Note:For Indonesian coal only

Page 35: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

35

5. Financial review

Somruedee SomphongChief Financial Officer

Page 36: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

36

Coal business revenues increased by 19% QoQ

Note : Revenues from other businesses (e.g. industrial minerals) are not included

4,738

4,013

2,9583,422

748

3Q03 1Q04 2Q04 Indominco Kitadin Jorong Coal Thai 3Q04

19%

Bt. million

40%

(20) +18 (21)

Increased 33% QoQdue to: 10% increase in sales volume and 18% increase in selling price

Page 37: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

37

Average gross profit margin increased to 40%

178

622

545

2,002

444

675

649

2,245

423

693

629

2,993

Thai mines

Jorong

Kitadin-Embalut

Indominco-Bontang

3Q042Q043Q03

Bt. million

40%

32%

30%

38%

50%

22%

43%

41%

31%

40%

38%

35%

GPM Sales revenue

Page 38: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

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1,1931,129

485

733

(93)(39)

(321)

(291)

69

3Q03 2Q04 Revenues COGs SG&A Royalty Otherincomes

Financialcharges

Incometaxes

Non-recurring

FX Others 3Q04

Strong core business generates higher net profit

3Q042Q04

Increased 18% QoQ: slightly higher sales volume and 13% QoQ increase in ASP

Increased 13% QoQ, in line with higher sales revenue

Higher tax from increased profit and taxable gain on ATC divestment

Page 39: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

39

Summary of income statement

Year-end Dec (Btm) 3Q04 2Q04 3Q03Coal sales volume (k tonnes) 4,098 4,041 3,854 Sales revenues 4,785 4,053 3,466Cost of sales (2,860) (2,539) (2,478)Gross profit 1,925 1,514 988GPM 40% 37% 29%Adminstrative expenses (226) (202) (180)Selling expenses (252) (238) (220)Royalty (480) (387) (363)Equity income - Pow er (22) (53) 270Dividend income - Pow er 196 217 163Other income 44 49 146EBIT 1,184 900 805EBIT margin 25% 22% 23%Interest expenses (107) (110) (131)Financial expenses (34) (35) (41)Income tax (456) (164) (55)Minorities (26) (12) (5)Net profit before extra items 562 579 573Non-recurring items 612 544 130Bond redemption premium - - (57)Mining property expense (18) (15) (11)Net profit 1,156 1,108 636FX translations 37 21 (151)Net profit 1,193 1,129 485EPS (Bt/share) 4.39 4.16 1.85Depreciation 127 129 108Amortization 246 324 201EBITDA 1,566 1,582 794

Sales increased from higher tonnage and selling price

GPM rose to 40%, in line with higher ASP

Dividend income Bt196m mostly from RATCH

Higher tax payment due to stronger operation and tax charge on

divestment of non-core asset (ATC); Tax shield used up by 2Q04

Non-recurring reflects 12.6m shares of ATC sold

Net profit Bt1,193m

Page 40: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

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Fixed rate82%

Floating rate18%

Balance sheet remains strong

0.6

0.30.3

0.3 0.3

3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04

Net D/E (Times) Debt profile

As end of 3Q04

Page 41: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

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Capital expenditure plan

(US$, mln) 2004 2005 2006 2007 TotalExisting mines and others 10 10 10 15 45 Expansion and replacement

Indominco-Bontang 13 13 Total 13 13 New investment

New coal mine projects 15 13 13 41 Trubaindo 64 10 74 Bharinto 13 15 15 43 China * 20 20 20 20 80

Total 112 58 48 20 238 Project - Power

BLCP - 50% equity 1 1 1 145 148 Total 1 1 1 145 148 Grand total 136 69 59 180 445

* Planned investments in China are under management’s review

Page 42: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 17th November 2004 · 2013-03-07 · LP-2 / CMMC Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR; stock build-up is underway Higher SR due

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