investor & analyst update 17th november 2004 · 2013-03-07 · lp-2 / cmmc strong price outlook...
TRANSCRIPT
3Q 04 results and commentINVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE
17th November 2004
2
1. Summary
2. Focus: BLCP
3. Operational review
4. Commercial review
5. Financial review
3
1. Summary
Somruedee SomphongChief Financial Officer
4
Net profit of Bt 1,193m in 3Q04
Gross margin 40%, up from 37% in 2Q04
Coal sales 4.1 million tonnes
Average selling price US$26.3 per tonne(up 13% QoQ)
Summary
5
Growth
Restructuring
2001 2002 2003 1H2004
COCO shares
sold
Portactivity
sold
Indocoalacquisition(ph.1)
Indocoalconsolidation
(ph.2)
Industrial Mineralssell-down
TECO share sold to RATCH
Indominco-Bontang
acquisition +35%
FurtherRegional
growth
RATCH/EGCOMoU with EGATre: sale/purchase
ATCDivestment 4% in 2003,
14% remaining stake
ChinaInvestmentAACI, 18.8%
ChinaAACI, Increased to 20.9%
Industrial Mineralssell-down
BharintoAcquisition 99%
MoU with EGATcalled off
ATCDivestment
1.9% in 1H04, 12.1% remaining stake
ATCDivestment 1.3% in 3Q04,
10.7% remaining stake
3Q2004
Progress to date
6
2. Focus: BLCP
Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer
7
BLCP now 17.5% completed
• Location: Map Taput Industrial Estate
• Capacity: 1,434 MW
• Fuel: Coal (approximately 3 Mtpa.)
• COD: Oct 06 and Feb 07(c. 700MW each unit)
• Status (Nov 04): c.17.5% completion (procurement of construction materials secured)
8
BLCP has a strong financial structure
• PPA:
• Tariff structure:
• BOI:
• Project cost:
• D/E ratio:
25 years with EGAT
AP covers fixed costs; EP covers variable (incl. fuel) costs
Tax-free for first 8yrs after COD; 15% tax rate for 5yrs after that
US$ 1.34 billion
3:1
9
BLCP is climbing up the value curve
Development approval
Heads of agreement
(major contracts)
FinancialClosure
Technical completion
COD
100%
50%
7.5%
25%
75%
90%
Project stage of development
NPV
ILLUSTRATIVE ONLYSource: Bank of America
20%completionNOVEMBER 2004
Value?NOVEMBER 2004
10
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
MW
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: Ministry of Energy
4,903 MW
4 x 700 MW
3 x 700 MW
3 x700 MW
3 x700 MW
3 x 700 MW
920 MWNam Thuen
700 MWBangpakong
cc no.5
700 MWN.Bangkok
700 MWS.Bangkok
700 MWUnion Power
No.2
700 MWSongkhla
700 MWGulf Power
700 MWUnion Power
No.1
385 MWKhanom
1,400 MWBLCP
80 MWSPP
500 MWLamtakong
108 MWSPP
300 MWKrabi
122 MWLan Krabue
13 – 14,000 MWs ?
(700 MW)Ph.1
BLCP
EGAT
Independent
THAILAND NEW POWER PLANT COD
BLCP is the largest new IPP since 2001
11
There is potential for more coal-fired IPPs longer term
Source: Ministry of Energy
250
200
150
100
50
TWh
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
72%47%
5%
15%
7%
7%
5%
? ?? ? ?
35% 90 TWh???
imported coal
lignite
hydroother
new poweron-stream
planning &financing
construction
natural gas
BLCP kicks-in
Preparation and planning for new capacity starts now !
THAILAND POWER SUPPLY BY FUEL TYPE
12
More than 50% of power generation in Asia is coal-fired
Source: IEEJ Asia Energy Outlook March 2004
WORLD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
%
Coal-fired
Gas-firedHydro
Oil-fired
Other renewables
Nuclear
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
% Coal-fired
Gas-firedHydro
Oil-fired
Other renewables
Nuclear
ASIA
13
Thailand’s reliance on coal-fired power is low
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020
Other Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
CoalSource: IEEJ Asian/World energy outlook 2004
INDIGENOUS COAL RESOURCESMORE LESS
China India Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia Japan Korea Taiwan
?
14
CW intakePower plant
Coal stock yard
BLCP : Aerial view
15
BLCP : Aerial view
Coal unloading port
Coal stock yard
Power plant
16
StackControl roomTurbine / Generator
Intake
BLCP : Power plant
17
BLCP : Power plant
Control building
Boiler structure
18
BLCP : Manufacturing work in Japan
LP Rotor
19
3. Operational review
Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer
20
Banpu’s total coal reserves are approx 156 Mt*
Mampun Pandan14 mt
Barasentosa25 mt
BharintoReserves 40 Mt.
BharintoReserves 40 Mt.
TrubaindoReserves 52 Mt.Resources 21 Mt.
TrubaindoReserves 52 Mt.Resources 21 Mt.
Indominco-BontangReserves 34 Mt.Indominco-BontangReserves 34 Mt.
Kitadin-EmbalutReserves 28 Mt.Resources 72 Mt.
Kitadin-EmbalutReserves 28 Mt.Resources 72 Mt.
JorongReserves 32 Mt.Resources 8 Mt.
JorongReserves 32 Mt.Resources 8 Mt.
LP-29 Mt
CMMC2 Mt
Operation
Project
Daning21% x 56% x 79 Mt.
Daning21% x 56% x 79 Mt.
* Total 156 mt excluding Daning and Bharinto
21
Trubaindo to bring additional 3 Mtpa production in 2005
Indominco-Bontang8.0 mt
Jorong3.0 mt
Kitadin-Embalut1.8 mt
LP-22.1 mt
CMMC0.6 mt
Daning4.0 mt
Operational 2005
Trubaindo3.0 mt
Operational 4Q04
Production est. 2005
Production est. 2004, 2005
Note: tonnages shown are total gross production targets; they do not take into account Banpu’s equity ownership
22
Total production for 2004 is on target
Indominco-Bontang
Kitadin-Embalut
Jorong
LP-2 / CMMC
Strong price outlook will off-set higher costs from higher SR;
stock build-up is underway
Higher SR due to mining at flatter pitwall;
Production target is adjusted down due to technical difficulties
Good progress in overburden removal has helped smooth
production
Economy of scale achieved through strong production
1.6 2.0 2.2 2.2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4e
SR 7.4:1 9.9:1 9.7:1
.6 .5 .5 0.2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4e
SR 8.2 5.6 8.8
0.9
Q4e
.6 .8 .7
Q1 Q2 Q3
SR 3.7 4.7 5.5
0.9
Q4e
.5 .7
Q1 Q2
SR 4.3 3.4
2004e3.0mt
2004e1.8mt
.6
Q3
4.5
2004e2.7mt
2004e8.0mt
23
New coal projects on schedule
Project
Location
Banpu %
Reserves
Operational
Peak production
Coal type
Status
Trubaindo
Kalimantan, Indonesia
95%
52 mt
4Q04
5.0 mt (2006)
6,950 kcal/kg
Operational in 4Q04
Daning
Shanxi Province, China
c.21%
79 mt
Late 2005
4.0 mt (2005)
Anthracite
Under construction (on-schedule)
24
Trubaindo : Loading port
25
Trubaindo : Coal stock yard
Reclaiming pit
26
Trubaindo : Coal hauling road
27
Concrete form work
Trubaindo : Kedang Pahu Bridge
28
Trubaindo : Crushing plant
Dump Hopper, Primary Crusher
Secondary Crusher
Radius Stacker
29
Trubaindo : Coal stock
Temporary ROM Stockpile Mine Operation Seam 3000
Coal Getting Seam 3000 Coal Getting Seam 3000
30
4. Commercial review
Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer
31
c.45% of sales (by value) are to premium Asian markets
Philippines7%
Indonesia2%
Japan, Korea,
Taiwan, Hong Kong
45%
India10%
Italy10%
Thailand25%
Others1%
Coal sales by value: Bt4,738m in 3Q04
-
0.5
1.0
1.5Thai minesJorongKitadin-EmbalutIndominco-Bontang
Japa
n,
Kor
ea,
Taiw
an, H
K
Thai
land
Indi
a
Italy
Phi
lippi
nes
Indo
nesi
a
Oth
ers
Coal sales by volume: 4.1 Mt in 3Q04Mt
29%
36%
12%
9%
5%
9%
1%
32
Coal prices soften but still high relative to historical level
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
BJI*
Note: *Barlow Jonker Index (BJI) based on CV 6,700 kcal/kg GAD from Australia to JapanSource: Barlow Jonker
Avg. October ’04:$53.50
US$/Tonne
Recent prices trend
Coal price softens due to easing fears of supply shocks
Short-term outlook
Prices in 2005 are likely to stay high relative to historical trend
Main drivers
Fluctuation in Chinese export will influence price outlook for Asia-Pacific region
33
But, Banpu average selling price to increase in 2005
Banpu’s coal selling prices are on the uptrend while benchmark prices have peaked
ASP 2004 is expected at $25.5 per tonne (+15% from 2003)
ASP 2005 is expected to rise by at least 20% from 2004
10
20
30
40
50
60
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
E1Q
05E
BJI
Weighted avg
Indominco
US$/Tonne
34
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004 2005
Unpriced
Base price 2004
Base price 2003
Base price 2002
Because over 50% of 2005 volumes already secured
43%
15%
51%
49%44%
56%
1%
Note:For Indonesian coal only
35
5. Financial review
Somruedee SomphongChief Financial Officer
36
Coal business revenues increased by 19% QoQ
Note : Revenues from other businesses (e.g. industrial minerals) are not included
4,738
4,013
2,9583,422
748
3Q03 1Q04 2Q04 Indominco Kitadin Jorong Coal Thai 3Q04
19%
Bt. million
40%
(20) +18 (21)
Increased 33% QoQdue to: 10% increase in sales volume and 18% increase in selling price
37
Average gross profit margin increased to 40%
178
622
545
2,002
444
675
649
2,245
423
693
629
2,993
Thai mines
Jorong
Kitadin-Embalut
Indominco-Bontang
3Q042Q043Q03
Bt. million
40%
32%
30%
38%
50%
22%
43%
41%
31%
40%
38%
35%
GPM Sales revenue
38
1,1931,129
485
733
(93)(39)
(321)
(291)
69
3Q03 2Q04 Revenues COGs SG&A Royalty Otherincomes
Financialcharges
Incometaxes
Non-recurring
FX Others 3Q04
Strong core business generates higher net profit
3Q042Q04
Increased 18% QoQ: slightly higher sales volume and 13% QoQ increase in ASP
Increased 13% QoQ, in line with higher sales revenue
Higher tax from increased profit and taxable gain on ATC divestment
39
Summary of income statement
Year-end Dec (Btm) 3Q04 2Q04 3Q03Coal sales volume (k tonnes) 4,098 4,041 3,854 Sales revenues 4,785 4,053 3,466Cost of sales (2,860) (2,539) (2,478)Gross profit 1,925 1,514 988GPM 40% 37% 29%Adminstrative expenses (226) (202) (180)Selling expenses (252) (238) (220)Royalty (480) (387) (363)Equity income - Pow er (22) (53) 270Dividend income - Pow er 196 217 163Other income 44 49 146EBIT 1,184 900 805EBIT margin 25% 22% 23%Interest expenses (107) (110) (131)Financial expenses (34) (35) (41)Income tax (456) (164) (55)Minorities (26) (12) (5)Net profit before extra items 562 579 573Non-recurring items 612 544 130Bond redemption premium - - (57)Mining property expense (18) (15) (11)Net profit 1,156 1,108 636FX translations 37 21 (151)Net profit 1,193 1,129 485EPS (Bt/share) 4.39 4.16 1.85Depreciation 127 129 108Amortization 246 324 201EBITDA 1,566 1,582 794
Sales increased from higher tonnage and selling price
GPM rose to 40%, in line with higher ASP
Dividend income Bt196m mostly from RATCH
Higher tax payment due to stronger operation and tax charge on
divestment of non-core asset (ATC); Tax shield used up by 2Q04
Non-recurring reflects 12.6m shares of ATC sold
Net profit Bt1,193m
40
Fixed rate82%
Floating rate18%
Balance sheet remains strong
0.6
0.30.3
0.3 0.3
3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04
Net D/E (Times) Debt profile
As end of 3Q04
41
Capital expenditure plan
(US$, mln) 2004 2005 2006 2007 TotalExisting mines and others 10 10 10 15 45 Expansion and replacement
Indominco-Bontang 13 13 Total 13 13 New investment
New coal mine projects 15 13 13 41 Trubaindo 64 10 74 Bharinto 13 15 15 43 China * 20 20 20 20 80
Total 112 58 48 20 238 Project - Power
BLCP - 50% equity 1 1 1 145 148 Total 1 1 1 145 148 Grand total 136 69 59 180 445
* Planned investments in China are under management’s review
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