investment outlook 2h2021 exploring the next market mover

MAY 2021MNCS Research Division | [email protected]

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2H2021

Exploring the Next Market Mover

BackgroundDivergence Movement of Domestic Asset Class

Source : Bloomberg, MNCS. Data as of May 19th 2021

Equity Market

Dow Jones

+10.75%

Global Asset Class (YTD Return) Domestic Asset Class(YTD Return)

-0.45%

+4.27%Commodity

Nickel

IndonGovt

10 Year

-4.25%

USD Index

CryptoCurrency

+0.23%

+40.26%

Bitcoin

AltcoinRipple

+262.54%

JCI Index

-2.91%

Weakening IDR

Currency

+2.46%US T-Bill

10 Year

BackgroundTransition from Bond Year to Equity Year?

Source : Bloomberg

Investor appetite moved from defensive asset (fixed Income) toward riskier asset (equity).

However, the domestic equity market is laggard compared to developed equity market

Why is Indonesia Laggard?Combination of Global and Domestic Factors

Source : Google

1Increased 10 Year US T-Bill Yield as themain concern arise over the potential oftantrum before tapering off;

3 The Battle of Liquidity: the rising appetitetoward Crypto assets;

2 The hike of COVID-19 cases and itsmutation pull the trigger of future lockdown;

Top of Concerns from the Global perspectives:

Copper Price as Leading IndicatorTo Foresee the T-Bill Yield Movement

Source : Bloomberg, MNCS

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US 10-year Treasury Yield in % (LHS) Copper to Gold Ratio (RHS)

Copper price became the proxy of Global Economy Recovery, it also indicates the next movement of T-Bill yield

Short Term Investment RiskFear of US T-Bill Yield as Trigger of Tantrum before Tapering

Source : The Balance, Bloomberg, MNCS

Recession started.A stimulus of USD120 bn was distributed.

Second stimulus of USD14.2 bn was disbursed in 2009. Tapering off started in December 2013.Fed kept the rate at zero until 2015.

Growth stabilized, so Fed began raising rates.

Slow global growth and muted inflation, Fed begun cutting rate

2007 -2008

2009 -

2016 -

2019 -

2020 - Covid-19 Pandemic.Rate drop from 1.25% to 0%

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Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

Dow Jones Fed Rate % (RHS)

Rate and Market

Dip

Flat Rate, MarketRise

Rate and Market

Rise

Rate and Market

Dip

Flat Rate, MarketRise

Tapering Off Begin

The increase of T-bill yieldto ~1.6% as the hike of USinflation to 2.6% in Mar’21,creates a short-term volatilitydue to concern of: 1) Thepotential tapering can createinstability for financialmarket; 2) Speculation forThe FED to increase the FEDrate earlier than expected; 3)Increase of discount factor tothe equity valuation.

However, we note that theconcern is more to be ashort-term pullback ashistorically stock markethad negative correlation torate cut rather than rateincrease as the focus on theexpectation of futurerecovery in US economy.

Recession started.A stimulus of USD120 bn was distributed.

Second stimulus of USD14.2 bn was disbursed in 2009. Tapering off started in December 2013.Fed kept the rate at zero until 2015.

Growth stabilized, so Fed began raising rates.

Slow global growth and muted inflation, Fed begun cutting rate

2007 -2008

2009 -2015

2016 -2019

2019 -2020

2020 -present

Covid-19 Pandemic.Rate drop from 1.25% to 0%

Shor-term RiskStrengthening Dollar Index -> the Weakening IDR -> Sell off in Bond Market


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IDR Currency (lhs) Dollar Index (rhs)

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IDR Currency (lhs) Govt10Yrs (rhs)

Increasing USD Index pushes IDR to weaken

Short IDR TP:IDR14,700 – 14,800

Yield TP :6.8%

Which further increasing yield

COVID-19 Case UpdateUprising trend again!


Global COVID-19 cases pass 136.7 million with deaths 2.94 million. 616,629 new cases in Apr’21 where mostof cases in India with 161,736 cases. There are some new risks arise from: 1) Pause recommended in USfor Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine on concerns about rare and severe blood clotting side effects(previously AstraZeneca); 2) The worry of mutated COVID-19 variants, B.1.1.7 strain that arose in theU.K; 3) Lockdown in Germany; 4) 4th wave in Malaysia.

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Global (LHS) Indonesia Malaysia Singapore China India UK

The Battle of LiquidityFOMO on Planet Crypto?


Bitcoin as the largest crypto currency by market capitalization has successfully recorded a fantastic return by+876.03% vs US stock (+76%) from the lowest position in March’21. The uprising trend of BTC has led intothe movement of global liquidity supported by the participation of big institution and influencers.

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Bitcoin (RHS) Dow Jones

The Battle of LiquidityIncrease of Market Caps and Trading Value

Source : Bloomberg, Coinmarketcaps, MNCS

7.10 17.82

573.59

128.53 194.04

754.88

2,160.00

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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Apr-21

Market Caps (in USD bn)

The global crypto market caps stood at USD2.16 tn, surged by >1,000% in just 2 years. The 24-hour volume transaction is USD168.99 bn

More Acceptance from Industry Players

The Battle of LiquidityOversubscribed Phenomenon of Tokocrypto

Source : Tokocrypto, Binance

Rare event in stock market recently but still ordinary for crypto Assets. Tokocrypto as one of DeFithrough exchange recorded over than USD3.5 bn vs USD7.5 mn and 22.4x of return since ICO.

Why is Indonesia a Laggard?Combination of Global and Domestic Factors

1Lower test for COVID-19 cases vs slowerrollout of vaccines haunt the domesticeconomy recovery;

3The “exhausted retail investors” vs thenoise from the rebalancing agenda fromthe big boys of local institution;

2 Unfavorable result of macro data releasecreate concern over earning and GDP growth;

Concerns to Domestic Market:

5 Primbon Index 2021 : sideways pattern untilMay’21 and better outlook in 2H21.

Source : Google

4 All eyes on execution rather sentiment:SWF case for construction and battery holdingfor nickel mining.

COVID-19 Case UpdateVaccine Rollout in Indonesia is still lagging

Source : Ministry of Health, Our World in Data, Bloomberg. Data as of May 20th 2021

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The fall of daily cases to around 4.8k due to lower tests

The vaccine rollout in Indonesia is at 8.5% from totalpopulation, which are lower compared global with 9.7%.

1.04

8.5

13.51

31.23

58.24

82.91

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Vietnam

Indonesia

India

China

Singapore

US

Dose of Vaccine administered per Population (%)

COVID-19 Case UpdateVaccine Timeline : more doses in 2H21

Source : Government of Indonesia

The realization of vaccine distribution until mid April 2021 is still far below than the targeted bythe Indonesia Govt. Hope for better rollout in 2H21 to reach at least 60% of total population toachieve herd immunity.

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ari 2

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Sinopharma Sinovac AMC-GA VI

*in (thousand people)

The realization is still far behind from target

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Retail Sales (% YoY growth)

Recovery in Indonesia EconomyStill Mixed Macro Indicators: Unfavorable Retail Sales Data

Source : Industry Associations and MNCS

121.7117.7113.8

84.877.8 83.8 86.2 86.9 83.4 79

92 96.584.9 85.8

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Consumer Confidence

49.351.945.3

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39.146.950.847.247.850.651.352.250.953.254.6

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PMI Markit Manufacturing

40,719 43,093

45,931 3,804

1,102 4,586

10,140 16,773

25,799 26,410

24,42527,02426,83026,502

45,52141,676

39,716 36,552

30,880 4,064

2,449 8,037

15,143 15,604

22,755 22,633

29,40930,483

26,07922,700

39,39437,232

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

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Mar-21

Car Sales

Astra Non Astra

-7.39%-0.11%

-6.75% -6.28%

-38.27%

28.61%

-14.08%-9.27% -7.78%

-14.98%-13.92%-12.30%-5.79% -5.00%

10.69% 8.34%

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ton

Cement SalesCement Sales (LHS) % YoY (RHS)

Recovery in Indonesia EconomyConcern on the Revival of Economy?


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FY21E1Q21E4Q203Q202Q201Q204Q19

%

GDP FY21 : 4.1% - 5.1%

GDP in 1Q21:-0.74% YoY

Exhausted Retail InvestorMany reasons for loose grip on the stock market


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Average Monthly Trade

Average Turnoverfrom Jan to Oct 2020 is at 6.38 tn

Average Turnoverfrom Nov-20 to Mar-21 is at 14.16 tn with the highest on

Jan-21 at 19.37 tn

8.2 tn in Apr-21 and May-21

Noise from the Rebalancing AgendaIs the big guy unloading their guns?

Source : BPJS TK, MNCS

12.52%

14.07%

16.84%47.74%

8.82%

Deposit Stock Bond/Sukuk SBN OtherSOE Company

Code Acquisition Cost Per-Share 2019

% Total Investment

Return as of Apr 13 2021

PGAS 5.359 15,82% -77,98%

BMRI 7.740 7,34% -18,92%

BBRI 4.211 6,68% -1,21%

TLKM 4.129 6,58% -19,36%

ANTM 1.197 6,10% 89,59%

BBNI 8.859 4,59% -34,53%

SMGR 14.880 4,30% -29,43%

BBTN 3.076 2,40% -47,82%

JSMR 5.784 1,39% -28,94%

KRAS 797 1,26% -17,18%

WIKA 2.430 1,20% -43,62%

PTBA 4.177 0,40% -41,11%

TINS 1.303 0,16% 16,26%

Private CompanyCode Acquisition Cost

Per-Share 2019% Total

InvestmentReturn as of Apr 13 2021

UNVR 10.619 8,02% -41,38%

ASII 7.651 6,84% -33,67%

BBCA 28.549 4,29% 5,08%

INCO 4.767 3,85% -8,33%

KLBF 1.585 3,23% -5,98%

ITMG 40.949 3,21% -71,43%

UNTR 36.116 3,19% -37,63%

LSIP 2.317 2,70% -42,60%

ICBP 10.434 2,06% -17,34%

INDF 7.715 1,62% -14,78%

AALI 19.359 1,49% -49,25%

SIMP 1.144 0,98% -56,29%

BSDE 1.627 0,19% -31,15%

ADRO 1.539 0,11% -24,64%

BPJS Investment Position on Feb-2021:IDR497.2 tn, including of 14.07% (IDR70.05 tn) of stock market.

Government start to talk on New Tax Law 2021 Tax Amnesty and VAT hikes


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JCI IndexCurrent Account in USD mn (RHS)JCI (LHS)

2009 VAT hike: 10%; Revenue from VAT: IDR214 tn

2016 Tax Amnesty Program: 2%-10% taxes adjustmentRevenue from tax amnesty: IDR114 tn

As Indonesia's current account deficit widened to USD997mn in 1Q21, the MoF began to consider re-implementing the Tax Amnesty policy andcurrently assessing a multi-tariff VAT (PPN) scheme ranged 5%-15% (vs the current 10%-flat VAT rate) as a policy option. We seeseveral negative impacts that could occur, including: 1) As tax amnesty did not bring significant result in 2016, less effective results on previoustax amnesty just being as a vehicle for the upper-classes to wipe out taxes in Indonesia (highly unfair situation); 2) An increase in VAT during apandemic has the potential to diminish purchasing power and only create a sham increase in inflation. However, the additional tax revenue andfund repatriations can be used for Indonesia's much-needed infrastructure development and social programs and therefore should benefit society asa whole.

Recovery in Indonesia EconomyMacroeconomic Assumption in 2020/2021

No Key Indicators 2020 2021

1 GDP growth (YoY) -2.00% 4.10% - 5.10%

2 Inflation (YoY) 2.00% 2.50% - 3.00%

3 7DRRR 3.75% 3.50%

4 Currency IDR per USD (average) 14,500 14,200

5 Current Account (% of GDP) -1.30% -2.40%

6 Govt Bond 10 Years Yield 6.10% 6%-6.8%

7 EPS growth -30.00% +35.00%

Source : Ministry of Finance, IMF, MNCS

Source : Bloomberg

CPO 4,266 (+90.64% YoY/+14.22% YTD)

Tin 29,615 (+92.44% YoY/+46.37% YTD)

Nickel 17,322 (+35.38% YoY/+3.22% YTD)

Gold 1,869 (+7.38% YoY/-1.11% YTD)

Coal 98 (+91.64% YoY/+27.89% YTD)

Oil 63 (+91.64% YoY/+23.91% YTD)

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Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21

CPO (MYR/mt) Tin (USD/mt) Nickel (USD/mt) Gold (USD/mt) Coal (USD/mt) Oil (USD/barel )

Commodity Super Cycle in Question!Will the price rise last for years?The previous super cycles last for more than 10 years with average commodity staggeringlyincreased by 445% from low (1996) to peak(2007-2008). While from lowest point in Mar-20 topresent, average commodity price has just increased by 95% with Tin and CPO on the lead, whichwe believe have not reach their maximum potential.

Growing Expectations on QoQ Growth1Q21Earnings Mostly Better than Expected


-9.82%

96.68%

YoY Growth QoQ Growth15%

15% 41%

41%

15% 41%

44%15% 41%

BELOW INLINE ABOVE

Mostly consist of banking

Consist of metal, energy and consumer sectors

Consist of Industrial, coal mining and consumer

sector.

The largest IPO in Southeast Asia?GoTo can possibly become the 2nd largest market cap with est. valuation of USD35-50 billion.

Source : Bloomberg, Companies

The GoTo Group, which is a new entity resulting from the merger of Gojek-Tokopedia, is consideredto have a pre-IPO valuation of USD17 billion. With this assumption, GoTo becomes the technologygiant with the largest valuation in the Southeast Asia region ahead of Grab with a valuation ofUSD14 billion.

Free Float RebalancingPotential Inflow and Outflow

Source : Bloomberg, Companies

The most benefited fromthe rebalancing are BigBanks (BBCA, BBRI,BMRI) and TLKM with themost free float weight. Onthe other hand, Consumerstocks (UNVR, HMSP,ICBP, GGRM, MYOR) willpotentially experience anoutflow due to low FreeFloat Weight.

No Ticker 100% FF MKT Cap Free Float

Full Mkt Cap

Weight

Weight 30% FF

Weight 60% FF

Weight Full FF

Adjustment 30%

Adjustment 60%

Full Adjustment

1 BBCA IJ Equity 351,917,011,974,789 45% 11% 13.31% 14.15% 16.76% 1.86% 2.70% 5.30%2 BBRI IJ Equity 207,352,215,700,580 43% 7% 8.10% 8.53% 9.87% 0.82% 1.25% 2.60%3 TLKM IJ Equity 155,184,243,066,744 48% 5% 5.56% 6.00% 7.39% 0.80% 1.24% 2.63%4 BMRI IJ Equity 103,161,859,894,840 38% 4% 4.50% 4.60% 4.91% 0.53% 0.63% 0.94%5 UNVR IJ Equity 31,919,919,785,303 15% 3% 3.22% 2.81% 1.52% 0.06% -0.35% -1.64%6 HMSP IJ Equity 10,904,725,333,399 7% 2% 2.14% 1.74% 0.52% -0.04% -0.43% -1.66%7 ARTO IJ Equity 63,700,202,953,542 46% 2% 2.38% 2.54% 3.03% 0.23% 0.39% 0.89%8 TPIA IJ Equity 10,746,393,602,736 8% 2% 2.09% 1.71% 0.51% 0.09% -0.29% -1.49%9 CPIN IJ Equity 45,937,173,402,511 44% 2% 1.75% 1.86% 2.19% 0.25% 0.35% 0.68%

10 BBNI IJ Equity 39,705,698,755,518 40% 1% 1.66% 1.71% 1.89% 0.20% 0.26% 0.43%11 ICBP IJ Equity 18,899,665,053,382 19% 1% 1.50% 1.35% 0.90% 0.07% -0.07% -0.53%12 BRPT IJ Equity 22,530,377,212,724 27% 1% 1.33% 1.27% 1.07% 0.12% 0.06% -0.14%13 SMMA IJ Equity 33,086,732,462,198 41% 1% 1.35% 1.40% 1.58% 0.22% 0.28% 0.45%14 BRIS IJ Equity 62,890,119,337,167 83% 1% 1.47% 1.84% 2.99% 0.37% 0.74% 1.90%15 KLBF IJ Equity 29,327,718,119,545 43% 1% 1.16% 1.22% 1.40% 0.15% 0.21% 0.39%16 GGRM IJ Equity 15,064,884,453,909 24% 1% 0.99% 0.93% 0.72% 0.06% -0.01% -0.22%17 TOWR IJ Equity 29,000,456,635,013 47% 1% 1.05% 1.13% 1.38% 0.14% 0.22% 0.47%18 TBIG IJ Equity 23,551,769,174,296 42% 1% 0.94% 0.98% 1.12% 0.09% 0.13% 0.27%19 MDKA IJ Equity 27,181,602,676,029 48% 1% 0.97% 1.05% 1.29% 0.15% 0.22% 0.47%20 MYOR IJ Equity 8,816,108,372,913 16% 1% 0.85% 0.75% 0.42% 0.03% -0.08% -0.41%

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80000

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13

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13

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Oct

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14

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15

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15

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-20

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Inflow Update in Stock MarketWhat has Come Out, Will Come In?


The inflow tracker showed that the outflow of foreign investors would back into inflow in more orless the same or even bigger up to 2x.

?

2020-IDR47.81

trillion

2018-IDR50.75

trillion

2015-IDR22.47

trillion

2013-IDR20.65

trillion

2014+IDR42.59

trillion

2016+IDR16.05

trillion2019

+IDR49.19trillion

Apr 13th

2021+IDR5.03

trillion

MNCS Strategy 2021Sectoral Rotation is the Key!

DEFENSIVE/ NON-CYCLICAL SECTORS

MAIN CRITERIA :• Solid cashflow, higher dividend yield

and resilient earning growth even during Crisis;

• Lower volatility : Beta <1

KEY SECTORS: Utilities (inc.telco), Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Tourism & Aviation (before COVID-19)

TOP PICKS: JSMR, PGAS, TLKM, TOWR, ICBP, UNVR, GGRM

01 02 03

Moving from Non-Cyclical/Defensive to Cyclical -> Mid to small caps to maximize the return

CYCLICAL SECTORSMAIN CRITERIA :• Sensitive to economy or certain

business cycle;• Proxy at recovery economy• Higher volatility : Beta >1

KEY SECTORS: Banking, Auto, Commodity, Heavy Equipment, Consumer Discretionary, Cement, Property & Construction

TOP PICKS: BBCA, BBNI, ASII, ADRO, ANTM, UNTR, ACES, ERAA, RALS, SMGR, PWON, BSDE, WSKT

MID, SMALL TO VALUE STOCKS

MAIN CRITERIA :• Turnaround story (Corporate Action)• High earning growth expectation• Reasonable to cigar-but valuation• Mostly low liquidity

KEY SECTORS: across sectors

SELECTION PICKS: ARNA, DSNG,WIIM, TKIM, TOTL, INKP, LINK, Paninand MNC Group (Not-Rated) etc.

MNCS Strategy 2021Sectoral Rotation is the Key!

JAKCONS

JAK

PR

OP

JAKTRAD

JAKMIN

E

JAK

AG

RI

JAKBIND

JAKINFR

JAK

MIN

D

JAK

FIN

IMPR

OVING LEADING

WEAKENING

LAGGIN

G

With the fall of JCI Index, the previoustop movers likes JAKMINE is in theweakening area. While the mostlaggard sector likes JAKCONS hashigh probability to have aturnaround in 2Q21, followed byJAKAGRI. Meanwhile JAKTRAD willgain good sentiment fromseasonality event likes Eid Fitr.

Source : Bloomberg, MNCS. Data as of Apr 13th 2021

MNCS Strategy 2021MSCI Indonesia ESG Index

Source :MSCI. Data as of Apr 2020

MNCS Strategy 2021Exponential Growth of ESG Index

Source :Morningstar, PWC, Bloomberg

Flows into sustainable funds rebounded strongly after the coronavirus pandemic market sell-off,more than doubling to $54.6 billion over the 2Q20. The record second-quarter inflows weredriven by growing investor interest in ESG issues, especially in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis.

PWC forecasts 57% of mutual fund assetsin Europe will be held in ESG Funds by2025, or 7.6 trillion euros ($8.9trillion), up from 15.1% at the end oflast year. In addition, 77% ofinstitutional investors surveyed by PwCsaid they plan to stop buying non-ESGproducts within the next two years.Moreover The study found that 37% ofinstitutional investors are willing topay a premium for ESG products, withthe majority of them ready to paybetween 21 basis points and 40 basispoints extra.

MNCS Strategy 2021Focus on Sectoral Growth


-60.00%

-40.00%

-20.00%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

JAKFIN JAKAGRI JAKMINE JAKMIND JAKBIND JAKINFR JAKCONS

2020 2021 2022

Consumer Staples remains Weak in

2021,offering cheap

valuation?

Banks In the recovery trends,But watch from the upside riskIn NPL trend after 1Q21

Uprising momentum especially nickel based, Coal to follow as the increase

demand for electricity

CPO is still positive until

Feb’2021 due to LaNina but low

productivity as old plants and few re-planting agenda

Mostly driven by the recovery of

ASII’s performance

Earning volatility as

higherCAPEX for 5G and leverage

Driven by cement sector as recovery

expectation on property and hard

infra

On base scenario, EPS JCI is estimated to grow from -30% YoY in 2020 to +35% YoY in 2021.JAKPROP and JAKTRAD is estimated to book stellar performance by over +100% YoY as low base

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

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19

Feb-

19

Mar-1

9

Apr-1

9

May-1

9

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

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19

Oct-19

Nov-

19

Dec-1

9

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar-2

0

Apr-2

0

May-2

0

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20

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

Oct-20

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20

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0

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar-2

1

Apr-2

1

MSCI Developed MSCI Emerging

Lucrative ValuationEmerging Market will potentially Outperform Developed and World in 2021


MSCI EM is lagging far behind the MSCI Developed and World. MNCS believe that with therecovery story kicks in 2021, EM will offer more return upside with lesser risk factors ahead.

Hit New High!

Still in Consolidation,More Upside ahead

Lucrative ValuationPE JCI among Peers


JCI is traded at 11.93x/11.19x of PE21F/22F below than average of other peers at 17.22x/15.28xof PE21F/22F especially in Asia Pacific region.

0

5

10

15

20

25

China Singapore Indonesia Thailand Philippines US Japan India

PE (X) 2021 PE (X) 2022

Average of PE21F: 17.22x

Average of PE22F: 15.28x

Lucrative ValuationJCI is traded below 5-year mean


JCI is traded at near to Mean of 15.58x Forward PE21. More upside back to at least to +1STD at17.36x

10.00

11.00

12.00

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15.00

16.00

17.00

18.00

19.00

20.00

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep-

15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-

16

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16

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-16

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep-

17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep-

18

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Jan-

19

Mar

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May

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19

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JCI PE FORWARD Mean STD-1 STD-2 STD+1 STD+2 Potential Upside to :+1STD PE (17.36x)+1STD PE (18.83x)

JCI Scenarios in 2021Base, Bull and Base Cases

Source : Bloomberg, MNCSDisclaimer : The JCI TP is subjected to the effectiveness of vaccines and earning recovery in 2021

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

Janu

ary-

20

Febr

uary

-20

March

-20

April-

20

May-2

0

June

-20

July-

20

Augu

st-20

Sept

embe

r-20

Octob

er-2

0

Nove

mber-2

0The worst performance Mar 24th 2020 (Close price) : 3,938

Closing 2020:5,979

Bull Case:7,221

Base Case:6,320

Bear Case:5,651

+42% from low to date

Base Case : 17x PE, +35% of EPS growth FY21F; Bull Case : 18.5x PE, additional +10% ofhigher EPS growth; Bear Case : 16x PE, additional -10% of lower EPS growth.

Source : Dr Darmoko, MNCS

Source : Dr Darmoko, MNCS

Primbon Index 2021 is still inline with the current JCI movement. We expect for sideway patternfor JCI until May’2021 and hopefully followed by better outlook as supported by larger and fastervaccine distribution in 2H21.

Institutional Research TeamDisclaimer on

Thendra Crisnanda – Head of Institution [email protected] Strategy

Victoria Venny – Research [email protected], Toll Road, Logistic, Consumer, Poultry

Muhamad Rudy Setiawan – Research [email protected], Property, Oil and Gas

T. Herditya Wicaksana – Technical [email protected] Specialist – Elliott Wave

Catherina Vincentia – Research [email protected]

Disclaimer : MNCS Investment Outlook has been issued by PT MNC Sekuritas, It may not be reproduced or further distributed or published, in whole or inpart, for any purpose. PT MNC Sekuritas has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has notindependently verified; PT MNC Sekuritas makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility to liability as to its accuracy orcompleteness. Expression of opinion herein are those of the research department only and are subject to change without notice. This document is not and shouldnot be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any investment. PT MNC Sekuritas and its affiliates and/or their offices,directors and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and may from time to time add to ordispose of any such investment. PT MNC Sekuritas and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting position in the securities ofcompanies discusses herein (or investment related thereto) and may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seekto perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies.

Aqil Triyadi – Research [email protected]

investment outlook 2h2021 exploring the next market mover

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