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MGSM836 Investment Management 2016 Term 1 Ross Hosmann UNIT GUIDE North Ryde Campus Weekly Class Thursday 6:00pm to 10:00pm Email: [email protected] Phone: + 61 2 9850 9027 Fax: + 61 2 9850 9019

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MGSM836

Investment Management 2016 Term 1

Ross Hosmann

UNIT GUIDE

North Ryde Campus Weekly Class Thursday 6:00pm to 10:00pm Email: [email protected] Phone: + 61 2 9850 9027 Fax: + 61 2 9850 9019

MACQUARIE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT

MGSM836 INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Updated 15 January 2016 Page 2 of 16 NB This unit outline is subject to change. For latest version refer to Student Website

1. About this unit

Credit Points: 4 Contact Hours: Total: 40 hours

2. Unit Description

This unit develops a conceptual framework in the understanding of modern investments. MBA students learn about the investment industry, the risk-return relation, asset allocation between risky and risk-free assets, how optimal portfolios are constructed and why they are constructed the way they are. The unit also provides insights in terms of models that explain the cross-section of stock returns, articulating and considering the market efficiency debate, differences between behavioural finance and rational expectations, bond portfolio management, and portfolio insurance techniques (i.e. hedging with derivatives). The unit concludes by examining portfolio performance measurement as the final step in the investment process.

3. Unit Learning Outcomes

By the end of the unit, students will be able to:

Critically evaluate and assess how investment portfolios are constructed and their performance, using a conceptual framework for, and models that explain the structure, institutions and dynamics of modern investments.

Assess and synthesise the differences between behavioural finance and rational expectations in a global investment environment.

Critically assess the impact of the ethical, social and environmental responsibilities of organisations on the construction of optimal portfolios and assessing their performance.

Critically analyse stakeholder relationships involved in the construction of portfolios that create and deliver sustainable value across complex networks.

4. Unit Alignment with MGSM’s Mission-Driven Attributes

Leadership: The unit develops a broad range of skills required by modern leaders facing challenges related to investing and investment management, equipping them with a know-how required to make informed decisions either themselves or as a member of an executive team.

Global mindset: The unit is addressing global activities, opportunities and challenges impacting investing and investment decision-making across a broad spectrum of stakeholders.

Citizenship: The unit topics are developed and will be discussed based on the principles that underpin responsible investments and fiduciary duty and possibly the implications of investment decisions on stakeholders.

Creating sustainable value: The unit focuses on long term investment and forward looking implications of the investment decision making on stakeholders and a broader community.

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5. Unit Requirements

Students are required to:

Attend all classes/lectures as per the MGSM attendance policy in the MGSM Student Handbook;

Prepare for and participate in practise set questions from the textbook, seminars, company visits, and research studies;

Follow financial markets and press in Australia (AFR), US (WSJ) and UK (FT) and be prepared to discuss some of the articles/events published in one of the newspapers;

Complete one individual and one group assignment and be able to present and discuss;

Complete an open book, short multiple choice assignment at a pre-scheduled time (mid-term);

Complete a final open book assignment in the scheduled examination week.

6. Classes

Students are required to attend all classes; attendance is subject to the MGSM attendance policy. Lectures will included a mix of formal teaching, practice set questions from the textbook, research paper/article discussions as well as guest and student presentations. Students are encouraged to read textbook chapter(s) and familiarise themselves with research papers and articles listed in 10.3. While some of the material presented will be technical in places, the objective is for students to understand and be able to discuss the key insights. The unit will be presented over 10 weeks as follows:

Session Date Topic Textbook, Chapter

Required Reading

1 14 January 2016 Introduction, Financial Markets, Asset Classes

BKM:1,2,3,4

Haris, L., 2015, Trading and Electronic Markets, what investment professionals need to now

2 21 January 2016 Investment Return and Risk, Relationship between Risk and Return

BKM:5,6,7 Siegel, J., 2005, Perspectives on the Equity Risk Premium

3 28 January 2016 Industry Analysis, Investment in Equity Securities

BKM:17,18,19

Campbell, J., Shiller, R., 2001, Valuation Ratios and the Long Run stock market outlook - An Update

4 4 February 2016 Fixed Income Securities BKM:14,15,16,

Zelouf, M., 2013, Fixed-Income Portfolio Benchmarks

5 11 February 2016 Derivatives BKM: 20,21,22,23,

The UK National Association of Pension Funds, 2013, Derivative and Risk Management Made Simple

6 18 February 2016 Mid-term exam, Efficient

Capital Markets, CAPM BKM: 9,10,11,12

Malkiel, B., 2003, The Efficient Market Hypothesis and its critics

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Session Date Topic Textbook,

Chapter Required Reading

7 25 February 2016

Introduction to Portfolio Management, Portfolio Performance, Evaluation of Asset Managers

BKM:5, 24

Amenc, N., Goltz, F., Lioui, A., 2011, Practitioner Portfolio Construction and Performance Measurement: Evidence from Europe

8 3 March 2016 Investment Funds, Strategies,

Investment Management Process

BKM: 25,26,28

Anson, M., 2004, Strategic versus Tactical Asset Allocation, Euromoney Institutional Investor

9 10 March 2016 Active Portfolio Management BKM:27

Ibbotson et al, 2010, Equal Importance of Asset Allocation and Active Management, Financial Analyst Journal

10 17 March 2016 Overview of Topics and Revision

21 to 26 March 2016 FINAL EXAM

BKM is Bodie,Kane & Marcus, 10th edition

7. Assessment Tasks

The unit mark will be made up of 4 parts:

Assessment Component Due Weighting

7.1. Group presentation To be arranged 10%

7.2 Individual Market Commentary and Assignment

7.2.a Stock market comment 7.2.b Short individual assignment

Throughout term: see 7.2 for more In session 10

25%

7.3. Mid-term exam In class of Session 6 25%

7.4. Final Examination Exam week: 21 to 26 March 2016 40%

Total 100%

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7.1 Group Presentation (Groups of 3-4 Students)

Length: 20 minute presentation

Format: In-Class PowerPoint Presentation

Due: To be arranged with groups

Weighting: 10%

Students (groups of 3-4 students) are expected to present a topic of relevance to investment management, and to apply the topic to the current practice in funds management. This may be presented from an institutional fund manager’s perspective or an individual investor. The presentation should be conducted for not longer than 20 minutes during class (using MS-PowerPoint slides). Questions may be asked by the class at the conclusion. Each student should share an equal amount of time preparing and also presenting the topic. Once the topic has been identified, the presenters must adequately introduce the topic, articulate why it is important, and what we know of the area from scholarly material and industry reports. The presentation should investigate the topic deeply and present accordingly with respect to why the topic is significant, what we know about the area (and what remains unresolved), the economic significance of the topic, and the practical importance of the topic to industry. The presentation will be graded based on understanding of the material, ability to inform audience, provision of practical insights into the area, implications for the investors as well as presenters capability to respond to questions. 7.2 Individual Market Commentary and Assignment

7.2.a Market Commentary

Length: 5 minutes presentation

Format: In-Class, verbal

Due: At the beginning of each class, 2-3 students selected on an ad-hoc basis, starting from Session 2

7.2.b Individual assignment

Format: Written report

Due: End of Session 10

Weighting: Worth a+b: 25%

This assignment requires that students:

1. Observe market events related to twenty large stocks listed on the Australian

Stock Exchange (ASX) and provide a five minutes summary of the events related to one of the stocks at the beginning of each session between week 3 and week 10. Each student will present only once on an ad-hoc basis. The list of twenty stocks is provided in the Appendix.

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2. Manage AUD 100mln portfolio holding 7-10 stocks as follows:

- The stocks should be selected from the list of twenty stocks provided, half of the portfolio holdings should be in companies having annualised dividend yield of 100bps above the latest CPI as published by RBA in week 3 (http://www.rba.gov.au);

- Portfolio construction should occur on Monday of week 3, portfolio should be liquidated on Monday of week 9;

- Once the portfolio has been constructed, portfolio turnover for the rest of the period should be limited to 50% of portfolio value.

- Stocks should be traded at closing prices each Monday as published by Yahoo Finance (https://au.finance.yahoo.com/)

- Portfolio should be well diversified across sectors and cash holding not exceeding 20% of the portfolio value at any single time;

- Assume brokerage fees of 30bps, the risk free rate equivalent to 90-day T-note (www.rba.gov.au);

- The benchmark portfolio is S&P/ASX 200.

Tasks required:

a) Produce report outlining investment strategy to be applied in managing portfolio between week 3 and week 9. For example, is the portfolio targeting growth or value stocks, targeting high dividend yields, etc? b) Download time series of daily historical data from Yahoo Finance, export data into MS-Excel and compute daily return series for the selected stocks and the benchmark in the five years prior to portfolio construction. c) Produce one chart showing performance of each stock and the benchmark during the period, assuming $100 is invested on the first day of the sample period in each of the stocks individually; d) Compute the annualized return, variance of returns, and standard deviation of returns for each company and the S&P/ASX 200 index in the last five years through to portfolio formation. You can assume 250 trading days per year to annualize the data.

Describe rational for each transaction, performance of each investment during the period and summarise overall performance of the portfolio, but in absolute terms in relative to the benchmark.

7.3 Mid-term Examination

Length: 1 hour

Format: Open book, multiple choice questions

Due: In-Class of Session 6,

Weighting: 25%

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7.4 Final Examination

Length: 3 hours plus 10 minutes reading time

Format: Open book

Due: Exam Week: 21 to 26 March 2016

Weighting: 40%

The MGSM Examination period in Term 1, 2016 is from 21 to 26 March 2016 You are expected to present yourself for examination at the time and place designated in the MGSM Examination Timetable. The timetable will be available on 3 February 2016 at https://students.mgsm.edu.au/sydney-students/study/exams/ EXCEPTIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES: alternate exam date

Students are expected to sit their examinations on the specified date and time during the examination period.

Only in exceptional circumstances (i.e. in the event of serious illness, injury or death of a close family member, unavoidable pre-scheduled overseas/interstate work trip) will alternative arrangements be considered. In the event of illness, students must submit a medical certificate within 48 hours of the date of the missed exam.

For the purpose of adhering to the Master Degree Regulations, Academic Senate will also treat as unavoidable disruption cases where the student has been prevented from attending an examination for the following reasons:

As a member of the armed forces involved in compulsory exercises

As a person in full-time employment required to be overseas by his or her employer

As a person representing their country at an international sporting or cultural competition Students, who for any of the reasons set out above, cannot sit in the exam period, must advise their lecturer and submit a Request for an Alternate Exam Date form which can be downloaded from the student website at https://students.mgsm.edu.au/assets/PDF/Student-Website/Exam-request-for-alternate-exam-date.pdf. Full supporting documentation must be attached to any request proposing to sit an exam outside of the scheduled time. Upon approval, an alternate exam date will be advised.

If an alternate exam date is granted, the examination will be scheduled after the conclusion of the official examination period. You are advised that it is Macquarie University policy not to set early examinations for individuals or groups of students. All students are expected to ensure that they are available until the end of the teaching term that is the final day of the official examination period.

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8. Required and Recommended Texts and/or Materials

Required Textbook

Bodie, Z., Kane, A., Marcus, A., 2010, Investments, 10th Edition, McGraw Hill,

ISBN: 9780077861674

Supplementary References and Additional Learning Materials:

There are many textbook written on the topic of investment management, students are encouraged to read widely after completing the course. However, it is not envisaged that the students will need to read beyond what is prescribed (see Section 6) to be able to successfully complete the course. Students are encouraged to continue reading financial press and literature and press after completing the course.

Suggested books: Arnold, G., 2010, Investing: the definitive companion to investment and the financial markets. 2nd edition, Pearson Bogle, J.C., 1999, Common sense on mutual funds, 10th edition, Wiley Burton, M., 1973, A random walk down Wall Street, 11th edition, W. W. Norton & Company; Nofsinger, J., 2008, The psychology of investing. 3rd edition, Prentice Hall Shiller, R., 2000, Irrational exuberance, 3rd edition, Princeton University Press Throughout the course, students are required to read material that will be provided in the class at the end of each session and read daily The Australian Financial Review. Textbook lists for Sydney classes are available at https://students.mgsm.edu.au/sydney-students/study/textbooks/

For information on textbook prices and online ordering, please refer to the Co-Op Bookshop webpage at http://www.coop.com.au

iLearn Unit

The web page for your iLearn unit can be found at: https://ilearn.mq.edu.au/login/MGSM/ You will receive details (e.g. your id/password) to access your MGSM iLearn unit after you have enrolled.

You can log in (using your id and password) to your MGSM iLearn unit at: https://ilearn.mq.edu.au/login/MGSM/

Use the MSGM iLearn unit to access the following:

Unit materials e.g. videos, readings

Exercises and other activities.

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To access resources and assessment tasks in your MSGM iLearn unit, you will need:

A computer with access to the internet. Your MSGM iLearn unit will operate on the following web browsers (upgrade your browser to its most recent (non-testing) version):

Mozilla Firefox

Google Chrome

Apple Safari

Microsoft Internet Explorer (version 8 or later).

A printer connected to your computer so that you can print out unit materials if you wish.

9. Policies

Disruption to Studies policy

The University is committed to equity and fairness in all aspects of its learning and teaching. It recognises that students may experience disruptions that adversely affect their academic performance in assessment activities. To assist students through their studies, the University provides support services. Whilst advice and recommendations may be made to a student, it is ultimately the student’s responsibility to access these services as appropriate.

This Policy applies only to serious and unavoidable disruptions that arise after a study period has commenced. Such disruptions commonly result from personal, social or domestic nature and may include illness (either physical or psychological), accident, injury, societal demands (such as jury service), bereavement, family breakdown or unexpected changes in employment situations.

Students with a pre-existing disability/health condition or prolonged adverse circumstances may be eligible for ongoing assistance and support. Such support is governed by other policies and may be sought and coordinated through Campus Wellbeing and Support Services.

This policy replaces what was previously known as the Special Consideration policy, and is now in effect for Term 3 2014 onward. Special Consideration is now referred to as the provision of the additional opportunity for a student after careful evaluation of evidence supporting a notification of Disruption to Studies.

Under the Disruption to Studies Policy the University deems a disruption to studies to be serious and unavoidable if it arises from a set of circumstances that:

could not have reasonably seen anticipated, avoided or guarded against by the student; and

was beyond the student’s control; and

caused substantial disruption to the studies capacity for effective study and/or completion of required work; and

occurred during an event critical study period and was at least three (3) consecutive days duration, and/or

prevented completion of a final examination.

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A Disruption to Studies Notification must be submitted within five (5) working days of the commencement of the disruption and all the supporting documentation must be submitted within five (5) working days of submission of the notification form. The form is available at https://students.mgsm.edu.au/assets/PDF/Student-Website/Exam-APScons.pdf A Disruption to Studies notification must be supported by documentary evidence. The evidence must:

identify the disruption;

explain the severity and impact of the disruption; and

clearly describe how the disruption has adversely affected that the student’s capacity for effective study to which an assessment relates

NOTE: The University’s Professional Authority Form (page 2 of the Disruption to Studies

Notification form) is the only form of documentary evidence for notifications pertaining to a medical disruption (physical or psychological). The form must be completed by an appropriate professional authority as specified in the Disruption to Studies Supporting Evidence Schedule at http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/disruption_studies/schedule_evidence.html

For further information on Disruption to Studies, please read through the official university policy at http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/disruption_studies/policy.html

Academic Honesty Policy

It is a fundamental principle that all staff and students act with integrity in the creation, development, application and use of ideas and information. This means that:

all academic work claimed as original is the work of the author making the claim

all academic collaborations are acknowledged

academic work is not falsified in any way

when the ideas of others are used, these ideas are acknowledged appropriately You should be familiar with the: University Policy on Academic Honesty http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/academic_honesty/policy.htm University Statement on Ethics http://www.mq.edu.au/ethics/ethic-statement-final.html The policies and procedures explain what academic honesty is, how to avoid it, the procedures that will be taken in cases of suspected dishonesty, and the penalties if you are found guilty. Penalties may include a deduction of marks, failure in the unit, and/or referral to the University Discipline Committee. Examples of dishonest academic behaviours are:

Plagiarism

Deception

Fabrication

Sabotage

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Grading Policy

The University operates on the premise that through assessment students are encouraged to engage in their education, rather than merely pursue grades. The grades that you achieve at MGSM reflect assessment of the extent to which you have met the learning outcomes of a unit. Marks awarded in the continuous assessment items will not automatically guarantee a specific grade. Final grades for this unit are formally determined at the Examiners' Meeting, in accordance with University assessment procedure. NOTE: It is necessary to achieve an overall pass in the individual assessment to pass this subject. The following grade descriptors are university-wide standards used to determine your final grade for this unit. High Distinction

Provides consistent evidence of deep and critical understanding in relation to the learning outcomes. There is substantial originality and insight in identifying, generating and communicating competing arguments, perspectives or problem solving approaches; critical evaluation of problems, their solutions and their implications; creativity in application as appropriate to the discipline.

Distinction

Provides evidence of integration and evaluation of critical ideas, principles and theories, distinctive insight and ability in applying relevant skills and concepts in relation to learning outcomes. There is demonstration of frequent originality in defining and analysing issues or problems and providing solutions; and the use of means of communication appropriate to the discipline and the audience.

Credit

Provides evidence of learning that goes beyond replication of content knowledge or skills relevant to the learning outcomes. There is demonstration of substantial understanding of fundamental concepts in the field of study and the ability to apply these concepts in a variety of contexts; convincing argumentation with appropriate coherent justification; communication of ideas fluently and clearly in terms of the conventions of the discipline.

Pass

Provides sufficient evidence of the achievement of learning outcomes. There is demonstration of understanding and application of fundamental concepts of the field of study; routine argumentation with acceptable justification; communication of information and ideas adequately in terms of the conventions of the discipline. The learning attainment is considered satisfactory or adequate or competent or capable in relation to the specified outcomes.

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Fail

Does not provide evidence of attainment of learning outcomes. There is missing or partial or superficial or faulty understanding and application of the fundamental concepts in the field of study; missing, undeveloped, inappropriate or confusing argumentation; incomplete, confusing or lacking communication of ideas in ways that give little attention to the conventions of the discipline. Grades awarded will be aligned to the following numerical ranges:

GRADE High

Distinction Distinction Credit Pass Fail

% 85-100 75-84 65-74 50-64 0-49

Attendance Policy

The interactive environment of the classroom is central to the MGSM experience. Students are required to attend all classes for the duration of each class. We recognise that exceptional circumstances may occur circumstances such as unavoidable travel on behalf of your organization or the serious illness or injury of you or a close family member. Special consideration may be given for a maximum of 20% non-attendances for such circumstances as long as, where possible, lecturers are notified in advance and supporting documentation provided. Failure to abide by these conditions may result in a Fail grade being recorded.

Planning Your Time

The unit is based on an average student workload of 160 hours; made up of 40 hours face to face contact and 120 hours unsupervised private study and group work.

Disclaimer

These unit materials and the content of this unit are provided for educational purposes only and no decision should be made based on the material without obtaining independent professional advice relating to the particular circumstances involved.

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10. Session Topics and Readings Topic 1: Introduction, Financial Markets, Asset Classes

Required Reading: Harris, L., 2015, Trading and Electronic Markets, what investment professionals need to now, CFA Research Foundation Additional Readings: Australian Trade Commission, 2010, Investment Management Industry in Australia Jennings, M.,2005, Ethics and Investment Management - True Reform, Financial Analyst Journal Naegle, A., Tsykin, N., 2001, ‘Please Explain-ASX Share Price Queries and the Australian Continues Disclosure Regime, Centre for Corporate Law and Securities Regulation, University of Melbourne.

Topic 2: Investment Return and Risk, Relationship between Risk and Return

Required Reading: Siegel, J., 2005, Perspectives on the Equity Risk Premium, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 61, No. 6 (Nov. - Dec., 2005), pp. 61-73 Additional Reading: Hammond, B., Leibowitz, M., 2011, Rethinking the Equity Risk Premium-An Overview and Some New Ideas, The Research Foundation of CFA Institute

Topic 3: Industry Analysis, Investment in Equity Securities

Required Reading: Campbell, J., Shiller, R., 2001. Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook, National Bureau of Economic Research Additional Readings: Campbell, J., Shiller, R. 1998. Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook, Journal of Portfolio Management. Winter, 24, pp. 11–26. Erb, C. et al , 1995, Inflation and World Equity Selection, Financial Analysts Journal Vol. 51, No. 6 (Nov. - Dec., 1995), pp. 28-42

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Topic 4: Fixed Income Securities

Required Reading: Zelouf, M., 2013, Fixed-Income Portfolio Benchmarks, CFA Institute Additional Readings: Adler, M., 1983, Global Fixed-Income Portfolio Management Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 39, No. 5 (Sep. - Oct., 1983), pp. 41-48 Asness, C., 1998, Why not 100% equities, The Journal of Portfolio Management

Topic 5: Derivatives

Required Reading: The UK National Association of Pension Funds, 2013, Derivative and Risk Management Made Simple Additional Reading: Jacobs, B., 2009, Subprime Securitization and the Credit Crisis, Tumbling Tower of Babel, Financial Analyst Journal

Topic 6: Efficient Capital Markets, CAPM

Required Reading: Malkiel, B., 2003, The Efficient Market Hypothesis and its critics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, volume 17, number 1, pages 59-82 Additional Readings: Fama, Eugene. 1970. Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work Hirshleifer, David. 2001. Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing, Journal of Finance, vol. 56, no. 4 (August):1533-97

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Topic 7: Introduction to Portfolio Management, Portfolio Performance, Evaluation of Asset Managers

Required Reading:

Amenc, N., Goltz, F., Lioui, A., 2011, Practitioner Portfolio Construction and

Performance Measurement: Evidence from Europe, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 67, No. 3 (May/June 2011), pp. 39-50

Additional Readings:

Brinson, G. et al, 1991, Determinants of Portfolio Performance II: An Update. Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 47, no. 3 (May/June):40-48. Sharpe, William F., 1992. Asset Allocation: Management Style and Performance Measurement, Journal of Portfolio Management 18: 7–19.

Topic 8: Investment Funds, Strategies, Investment Management Process

Required Reading: Anson, M., 2004, Strategic versus Tactical Asset Allocation, Euromoney Institutional Investor Additional Readings: Lakonishok, J., 2002, On Mutual Fund Investment Styles Waring, B., Siegel, B. 2006, The Myth of the Absolute-Return Investor, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 62, No. 2 (Mar. - Apr., 2006), pp. 14-21

Topic 9: Active Portfolio Management

Required Reading: Ibbotson et al, 2010, Equal Importance of Asset Allocation and Active Management, Financial Analyst Journal Additional Reading: Petajisto, A., 2013, Active Share and Mutual Fund Performance, Financial Analysts Journal

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Appendix

Code Company Sector

CBA Commonwealth Bank of Australia Financials

NAB National Australia Bank Financials

BHP BHP Billiton Resources

TLS Telstra Corporation Telecommunication Services

CSL CSL Star Stock Industrial

WES Wesfarmers Conglomerate

WOW Woolworths Consumer Staple

WPL Woodside Petroleum Energy

RIO RIO Tinto Resources

WFD Westfield Corp Real Estate

TCL Transurban Group Infrastructure

QBE QBE Insurance Group Insurance

AMP AMP Insurance

BXB Brambles Industrial

AMC Seek Ltd Technology

RHC Ramsay Health Care Healthcare

AGL AGL Energy Energy

AIO Asciano Transport

SHL Sonic Healthcare Healthcare

CCL Coca-Cola Amatil Consumer Discretionary