investment letter

7/25/2019 Investment Letter

1/12

PatternsProfits & Peace of Mind - Page 1 - 01/13/14

Published by TFNN, Corp. ~ 601 Cleveland Street, Ste 618 Clearwater, FL 33755 ~ 1-877-518-9190 ~ http://www.tfnn.com ~ Copyright 2013 ~ All Rights Reserved

01-13-14

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS vs FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Technical Analysis depends on 3 basic market tenets:

1. The markets discount all governing factors

2.

Trends do exist and are likely to continue rather than reverse3. History repeats itself

The Technician must follow these beliefs at all cost.

So where are we now in the US stock markets? Are we breaking out to the upsidelike the news tells us? Are we going to crash like the 1929 markets did? Or is thisa top forming before the next rise into new high ground?

Here is what we know: margin debt is equal or greater than Sept 1929, bullishconsensus is equal to 1929, price patterns are completing in every major sector,

and it is different this time.

Tom Demark, the famous market technician, has produced a chart showing thecomparisons of 1929 to the present. It looks as though there is a strongcorrelation present here, in my opinion (but I am very bearish).

Take a look at the JNK (i.e. junk bond ETF) enclosed in this letter - as you can seeit is making new high ground as investors are grasping for the highest yieldpossible. The 30 year US T-bond has lagged badly as you can see, even with theFederal Reserve QE programs. This is further indication that investors have nofear (and why should they after 5 years of partying).

This market has all the ingredients to be setting up for a crash; but when and ifcomes, it wont be from the top. It will happen after a break and then a shallowrally that fails very quickly, accompanied by a very high volume sell off closing atthe low end of the days range. The crash would come the following day, usuallywith some news to give merit to the decline.
http://www.tfnn.com/http://www.tfnn.com/http://www.tfnn.com/


2/12


From an astro-cycles perspective, the logical time for this would be near theSpring Equinox - March 21st.

Foreign exchange markets were active as usual after the Non Farm Payroll Reportbut stocks still came back to close up on the week. The NYSE Index hascompleted a bearish Gartley pattern on the 30 min chart as has the cash S&P

500. The NASDAQ also rallied to close at the 786 level (see attached charts). TheJPY/USD is the one to watch as it correlates well to the Japanese stock market.The Euro looks long term bearish as long as it does not get above 1.3860.

Gold and silver -- these two markets are starting to turn upward. Gold needs toget above 1,300/oz and silver above 22/oz to change the trend to up. The bottomwe have been looking for in these metals has been formed - making new weeklylows now would negate this bullish scenario.

The oil complex tested support at 91/bbl last week and has held thus far. Thelonger term targets show the next support at the 85/bbl level.


3/12


4/12



5/12



6/12



7/12



8/12



9/12



10/12



11/12



12/12


_________________________________________________________________

Disclaimer:Trading in securities such as stocks, options, indices, currencies and futures involve risk and should not be undertaken without due diligence and serious

independent study. Subscribers may carry out their own trading based on what they learn from PatternsProfits & Peace of Mind, but all r isks of potential financial losses are

the subscribers responsibility. TFNN will be in no way liable for financial losses resulting from trading decisions based on this newsletter. Past performance is no guarantee of

future results. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without prior written consent. All rights reserved.

investment letter

Documents