investigation about lithium-ion battery market evolution...
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InvestigationaboutLithium-IonBatteryMarketEvolutionandfuturePotentialofSecondaryRaw
MaterialfromRecycling
Reiner Weyhe, Xiaofei Yang
ACCUREC Recycling GmbH, Wiehagen 12 - 14, 45472 Mülheim an der Ruhr, e-mail: [email protected]
1 Abstract
Accurecisamedium-sized,dedicatedbatteryrecyclingcompany,whichwasestablished
in 1996. Innovative recycling processes for nickel-cadmium, nickel-metal hydride,
lithium-ion batteries and other specific primary portable batteries have already been
installedatindustrialscale.Someoftheseprocessesaredevelopedincooperationwith
theInstituteofProcessMetallurgyandMetalRecyclingatRWTHAachenUniversityand
reflect the status of Best Available Technology (BAT). This systematic research and
implementationoftheprocesseswerehonoredbytheawardofEfficientRawMaterial
fromGermanRawMaterialAgency(DERA) in2012,aswellas theEuropeanECOPOL-
prizein2013.
ThisinvestigationaimstoidentifyfuturesecondarymetalpotentialfromLi-IonEndof
Life (EOL)batteries. It considersmultipledata sources, influencing factors, interviews
and conservative estimations to model this future raw material feedstock until year
2020.Firstofall,thepastandfutureEuropeanmarketvolumeoflithium-ionbatteriesis
discussedby country, application and chemistry. Further to this, the factor of lifetime
and hoarding effect is investigated, so that the prognosis of EOL batteries is made
available. Besides, other factors staying behind, which reduce the mass of collected
batteries are considered and determined as well. The weight of potential collected
batteries,whichcanentertherecycling,andtheirfuturemetalcontent,arecalculatedby
thedatasources.
2 Introduction
Therechargeablelithiumbatterymarkethasalreadybeengrowingrapidlyinthefieldof
portable electronics (cellular phones, laptops, tablets etc.) for a decade. This
development has been accelerated through the electrification of transportation, for
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example, E-Bikes and scooters. Besides, theworldwide increase in demand of hybrid
and full-electric vehicles, combining with the continuous decrease of battery
manufacturingcost, leadstoamoreandmorewidespreadusageofelectricvehicles.A
rapidgrowthinthisfieldcanalsobeexpectedinnextdecades.
Ingeneral the legislationofbatteryrecyclinggotabreaktroughwiththeEUDirective
2006/66/EC, a pioneering new regulation, adopting the requirement of marking,
registration, collection and recycling of batteries. The collection rate was defined
graduallyforthefirsttime(25%in2014and45%in2016),andarecoveryrequirement
forthesecollectedEOLbatterieswasissuedatmin.75%forNiCd,65%forPband50%
forotherbatteries.Thisrecoveryobligationwasfurtherspecifiedasrecyclingefficiency
(RE)inaseparatedirective493/2012/EU.Itprescribeshowtocalculateandproofthe
RE.
3 ResearchonEULi-Ionbatterymarket:methodologyanddatasources
To estimate the future European recycling potential from lithium-ion batteries, the
material flow analysis is performed according to Figure 3.1, where the historic and
predicted Put On Market (POM) data by applications are analyzed first. After
acknowledgingthemarketshareofdifferentcountriesinEU,POMdatabycountrywill
becalculated.Similarly,POMdatainthecategoryofdifferentcathodematerialswillalso
beconductedbythepercentageofdifferentchemistriesfordifferentapplications.Thus,
threecategoriesofapplication,countryandchemistrywillrunthroughfollowingsteps
inthewholeinvestigation.Secondly,theanalysisandquantificationwhenabatterywill
reach its EOLwill be conducted, while the technical and emotional reasonswon’t be
illuminatedindetail. Inthethirdstep, theefficiencyofcollectionofdiscardedlithium-
ion batteries by country for different applications is discussed. So the systematic
investigationdescribesa forecastofpotentialcollecteddiscarded lithium-ionbatteries
until 2020. In the end, the amount of potential recoverablemetals is calculatedwith
metalcontentsofdifferentcathodematerials.
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3.1 Data sources and categories
To determine the weight of POM of lithium-ion batteries, different applications are
analyzedandinformationsfrommanufacturersandsuppliersareusedasdatasources.
In essence, these are represented by subject-specific sources: Avicenne/F [1],
Statista/DE [2], Umicore/BE [3], R. Berger/DE [4] and national/international
associations ZIV/DE [5], ILZSG [6], ACEA/BE [7], Recharge/BE [8], and EBRA/BE [9].
There have been also interviewswith batterymanufacturers and Original Equipment
Manufacturer (OEM), publications in newspapers and magazines, and conference
attachments. Depending on interests, data sources are in units of number, turnover,
energy content, etc.,while theweightofbatteryproduction/sales isnevermentioned,
buttherelevantanalysisofthesecondaryrawmaterialsisintonnage.
Inordertouseandcomparesources,dataindifferentunitshavetobeconverted.The
sources,which are adoptedmostly in this investigation, are the sale of appliances.To
convert sale into the weight of batteries, average weights of batteries for each
applicationareestimated,whicharelistedinTable3.1.Besides,theworldwidesaledata
POM to
by country
by chemistry
EOL to
Collected to
Lifetime + Hording Effect
Collection Rate
% MetalContent
by application
by country
by chemistry
by application
by country
by chemistry
by application Potential recycled metals
to
Figure3.1Li-ionbatterflowanalysis:methodology
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forcellularphones,portablePCandautomobilesarealsoavailable.ThustheEUmarket
share needs to be considered for the calculation of EU sales. The EUmarket share of
cellularphoneturnstobeabout17%from2007to2009.Thenitdecreasesto14.14%in
the year of 2013. Same share is used for the prognosis in the future. The EUmarket
share of portable PC shows similar slight decrease through year, which was 29% in
2007andisforecastedtobe16%in2020.FortheapplicationofE-bikes,notalle-bikes
areequippedwithlithium-ionbatteriesbefore2014.Thegrowingpenetrationof50%in
2007and80%in2013isassumedforlithium-ionbatteries[6].
Table3.1Averagecellweightsofbatteriesfordifferentapplications
CellularPhone 22g(2007)-26g(2010)PortablePC 390g(2007)-300g(2010)Tablets 188g
Powertool 500gE-Bike 3000g
0Automobile150kg(EV)
40kg(PHEV)
Deviationispossiblebecauseoftheaccuracyofsourcesandtheconversionofunitsof
the data. When deviation is low, an average number is calculated und used. When
deviation is high, the plausibility of the data sources has been investigated further in
ordertoexcludeunverified,doubtfulsources.Alldatasourcesandanalyticaldetermined
data are considered and evaluated conservatively to avoid an unrealistic high
expectationofthematerialflow.
To calculate the final potential recyclable value of respectivemetals of the discarded
lithium-ion batteries, its categories of application, country and chemistry are
considered. Not only the different power performance of the chemistry, but also the
usagecorrespondingtoapplicationscanleadtoverydifferentlifetimeandreturnpath.
Itisobviousthat,forexample,thebatteriesofmobilephonesareinthechargingcycle
almosteveryday inthefirst threeyears,whose lifetimeisconsiderablydifferent from
batteriesofnon-professionalpowertoolsthatareusedonlyoccasionallyorbatteriesof
electric vehicles that are constantly recuperated in micro cycles with a high current.
Besidesthecollectionandreturnpathofthebatteries,thevolumedependsconsiderably
onthecategoryofapplications,consumerbehaviorsanddifferentnationalimplemented
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legislations. Commonly, the division of applications is subdivided into followingmain
groups:
• Cellularphones
• PortablePCs
• Tablets
• PowerTools
• E-bikes
• Automobile
• Others
Different cathodematerialsaredecidedbyperformanceof electrochemistry to realize
application-oriented properties. The decision of the properties in a customer-sized
batterycellismadeupofnecessary:
• Powerdensity
• Capacity
• Cyclesstability/lifetime
• Highcurrentcapability
• Storageconditions/temperaturestability
• Safetyaspects
• Cost
In essence, the electrode systems in this investigation are distinguished as: lithium
cobalt oxide (LCO), lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC), lithium iron
phosphate (LFP), lithiummanganeseoxide (LMO)and lithiumnickel cobalt aluminum
oxide(NCA).
Thegoodcapacityandoverchargestability,aswellasahighvoltagemakepurecobalt-
basedcells (LCO) tobe the initialpreferredbatterysystemforconsumerapplications.
Buttheincreasingrawmaterialcostandsensitivityontemperaturestabilitymadethe
marketingshareofLCOdecline, substitutingcobaltbymanganeseandnickel.This so-
calledNCMsystembecomesanalternative,whichistechnicallymatureandeconomical.
Todayitisthedominatingmassproductionchemistry,alsobecauseitallowsvaryingthe
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mixingratioofthesethreemetalsinordertoprovideawiderangeofcustomer-oriented
technicalfeatures[1,4,10-12].
The pure manganese cells (LMO) impresses with high voltage and power, but still
suffers from several technical performances like capacity fade orweak cycle stability.
Becauseofthis,itisstillapreferredchoiceforapplicationswithhighcircuitdemandlike
power tools. Incontrast to this, lithium ironphosphatecells (LFP)have less favorable
performances, such as low cell voltage (3.3V), while showing a moderate limiting
behavior, particularly in the case of a good thermal stability [13]. Therefore, these
materialsarecommonlyusedforlaminate/pouchcellsthataresensitivetomechanical
impact. Applications of transportation, such as E-bikes and automotive batteries, the
usageof LMOandLFP is increasing aswell. Alsobatterieswith a cathodematerial of
nickel,cobaltandaluminummixture(NCA)showahighpowerreputation,andimprove
currently their performance in terms of safety – having a no relevant market share
today,butpotentialperspectiveinfuture[1,4,10,14].
3.2 Socio-technical factors influencing End of Life scenarios
To determine an EOL scenario for lithium-ion batteries, two important periods are
neededtoidentify.Oneisthetechnicallifetime,i.e.theperiodoftimewhenlithium-ion
batteries are technically used, while the other one is the additional storage time
betweentheendofusageandactualdiscardbyendusers,whichisreferredashoarding
time.
The technical usage limit of a battery pack embedding a BMS (battery management
system) isdeterminedby the thresholdvalueofabout25-40%lossof thecapacity. In
thatcaseasafety-relatedforcedshutdowniscommonlycaused.Dependingonthetype
ofapplicationsandindividualhabits,thepointcanbereachedaround800-1500charge
cycles.Forexample,thebatterieswouldbereplacedforBEVvehiclesat25%lossofthe
capacity,whichcanbearoundthewarrantyperiodor8-10yearsofanormal lifetime
[12,15,16].
Forrarelyorseasonalusedapplications,suchasE-bikes,thereisalsoanearlypossible
loss of capacity, and therefore premature reason to discard,with the poor storage of
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lithium-ionbatteries.Thelifetimeisespeciallydependingonthecorrecttricklecharging
and storage temperature. Study shows that the duration of the lifetime of lithium-ion
batteries isabout8years,whentheyarestoredunderan idealstoragecondition.The
requirements of an ideal storage condition are usually not fulfilled, so that a shorter
lifetime of lithium-ion batteries,which is around3-5 years for certain applications, is
possible[17].
The defective batteries (production or manufacturing defects and scraps) are not
includedinthescenario.Butthe lifetimeofappliancesandlifetimeofbatteriesshould
betakenintoconsideration.Lithium-ionbatteriesinconsumerapplicationscanalsobe
disposedbecauseofthechangeofmoderntechnologiesagainstout-of-datetechnologies,
evenbeforebatteriesreachatechnicalEOL.(Forexample,buy-inactions,newphones
withcontractextension,etc.)Incontrast,forapplicationsoftransportation,thelifetime
ofappliancesislongerthanbatteries,forinstance,e-bikesandautomobiles.
Thehoarding effect also depends on applications. In general the period of hoarding
time isexpectedtobe longer forconsumerapplications thancommercialor industrial
applications.Forexample,specialistworkshopswillmanagethedisposalforconsumed
batteries,suchasbatteriesforautomobilesorprofessionalpowertools,intensivelyand
timely.Incontrasttothat,thehoardinginafamilyhouseholdisindeedcommon,butits
reason could be of different motivations. It is difficult to identify whether hoarding
occursbecauseofsecondlifeusage(e.g.mobilephonesforkids),lassitudeofconsumer
fordedicateddisposalorkeepingbatteriesorapplicationsasakindofreserve.Hoarding
is not yet intensively investigated, so that only a few statistical data have been
integrated.Lifetimeincludinghoardingperiodhasthereforebeensetbyinvestigationof
batteryagebyapplications(internallyandexternalstudies).
Bothofthetimeperiods(technicallifetimeandhoardingperiod)dependstronglyonthe
categoryof application, so theyareanalyzed separately.Mostof the factorsdiscussed
abovearegivenbyliteraturesinawiderange,sothatanaveragelifetimeoflithium-ion
batteries can't be determined unambiguously. In fact the end of use of consumed
batteries distributes with different rates (according to applications) in the following
yearsaftersale.
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Aftertheanalysisaboveandgettingaccordancewithliteratures[14,18,19],Table3.2
figures out the discard distribution of lithium-ion batteries for main categories of
application.Itshowstheevolutionofpercentageofdisposalinthefollowingyearsafter
thesale.Thefactof“disposal”doesnotnecessarilymeanthatapplications/batteriesare
feedtodedicatedcollectionpoints–itdoesjustindicatethattheownergetsridofit–
wherever it is ending up in a waste stream (e.g. Waste Electrical and Electronic
Equipment-scrap (WEEE) collection, battery collection, conventional waste bin with
furtherincinerationetc.).
Table3.2Discarddistributionsoflithium-ionbatteriesbyapplicationYears CellularPhone PortablePC Tablet PowerTool E-Bike Auto Others1 1% - 2% 1% 1% - -2 3% - 3% 2% 1% - 13%3 4% 1% 5% 3% 2% - -4 5% 4% 7% 7% 3% - 22%5 10% 7% 12% 15% 5% 1% -6 14% 9% 16% 16% 8% 2% 28%7 15% 11% 20% 14% 15% 2% -8 14% 11% 20% 12% 17% 4% 24%9 11% 9% 12% 9% 13% 7% -10 9% 8% 2% 7% 10% 10% 13%11 6% 7% - 5% 8% 11% -12 5% 6% - 4% 7% 10% -13 4% 5% - 3% 6% 8% -
For cellular phones, the discard distribution shows a long tail since there is a strong
second-hand or -use market at around 7 years after its purchase. Portable PCs for
professional usagewill probably be discarded closely after usage, while end users of
privatelaptopsprefertokeepthemupto10yearsfurtherbecauseofthepersonaldata
storage or second use, which finally postpones the date of disposal. Besides, electric
automobiles have a longer lifetime than other applications because of the advanced
BMS. Thus the cumulative discard distributions don’t reach 100% within the time
rangesthisresearchhascovered.
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3.3 Return and collection of consumed batteries
Sofar,onlyinfluencingfactors,whichdeterminethetimeperioduntilEOL-Lithium-Ion
batteries are “Ready for Collection” have been analyzed.Whether these batteries are
finallyrecycledornot,stilldependsonadditionalfactors:
- Europeanlegislation(inparticularEUDirective66/2006/EC)
- Profoundness of national implementation of this legislation -which could vary
fromminimumrequirementsofEU-legislationanddependsonfollowingdetails:
o Monopolistic or competitive approach of CRO (collection and recycling
organizationonbehalfofproducersresponsibility)
o MonetarybudgetavailableforCRO´s
o Intensity of PR (public relation) and advertisement to motivate for
dedicatedcollection
o Consideration of WEEE-schemes as source of rechargeable batteries
(applianceswithembeddedbatteries)
o Knowhowandsortingqualityofservicecompanies
According to the EU legislation, member states must achieve a collection rate for
portablebatteriesofat least25%in2012and45%in2016.Thisrate isbasedonthe
averagePOMvalueincurrentandtwoprecedingyears.However,thecurrentrealand
expected return rates are regionally, significantly different. According an EPBA study,
only 3 countries were not able to fulfill the first threshold in 2012 [9]. Own
investigationshaveevenshownlowercollectionrates.Itisexpectedthatthenumberof
countries,whichwon’tsucceedthresholdII(45%)in2016willbesignificantlyhigher.
The fact that newmember states stay far behind the requirement is due to the early
stage of collection learning curve; this matter is informally tolerated. Other, well
developedcountrieslikeSpainandItalyneedtoimprovetheiroveralleffortsintermsof
PR,numberofcollectionpointsandetc.tocatchuptheirfigures.
Besides,pathsofcollectioncanalsobedifferent:itdependsonbatteryapplicationsand
is influencing dramatically the success of CRO´s. Standard collection paths are done
troughmunicipalityandretailshopcollection.ButasignificantamountofEOLbatteries
are still disposed off along with conventional household garbage. Further more,
batteries embedded in WEEE appliances are disassembled manually at minority.
Consequently, themarketshareofsecondarybatteries,which isdissipative lost in the
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stream of electronic waste, is growing fast. Summarizing, it can be stated that a
collectionisgoingtobesuccessfulif:
- Thecollectionisorganizedcloselytoconsumerenvironment(quickandeasy).
- A high return rate ofWEEE combinedwith consequent extraction of batteries
enablesahighnumberofreturnedrechargeablebatteries.
Considering all boundary conditionsmentioned above, theweight of EOL lithium-ion
batteries,whichwillbecollectedforrecyclinginthefuturewithinEUcanbeprognosed.
Theamountofcomprisedrecyclablemetalscanbedeterminedafterwardsbytheweight
ofcollectedlithium-ionbatteriesdifferentiatedbyapplicationandchemistryofcathode
materials.
4 ResearchonMarketEvolutionandCollection:Results
4.1 Historical and future POM data of lithium-ion batteries
Figure4.1showsthetonnageoflithium-ionbatteriessalesinthecategoryofapplication.
A significant and stable growth of 3000-5000 tons per year in sales can be observed
from2007to2014.Year2008and2009ismarkedbyarelativeshortperiodofglobal
economy crisis. Starting from 2010, the increase is dominated by new Li-Ion related
products, specifically electric automobiles and tablets. After 2015 the increase is
foreseentobegentle,butanincreaseof2000-3000tonsperyearcanbestillkept.
Thecumulativemarketofportableelectronics(category1-4)isrelativelystable,andthe
increase ismainlydrivenby the spreadof electric vehicles.Even theportablemarket
showsastableincrease,asthemarketshareofapplicationschangethroughyears.The
widespreadoftabletscanrestrainandevencutdownthedevelopmentofthemarketof
portablePCs.Incontrast,theamountoflithium-ionbatteriesforcellularphonesonthe
figurereflectsthesaturationofEUmarket,sincethereisonlyreplacementbusinessfor
mobile phones. The steady increase of power tools from 2010 is mainly due to the
legislative-driven replacement of the existing NiCd-battery system [20]. It shows a
relativelystablemarketafterwards.Thetechnologyoflithium-ionbatteriesalsopoints
to the fast-developing electric bikes. Since the lifetime of batteries is far shorter than
bikes, the replacement of batteries for the sectionofE-bikes explains thehigh sale of
batteriesforthisappliance[5,6,21].
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Inthefieldofelectricautomobile,themarketpenetrationofhybridvehicles(HEV)and
plug-inhybridvehicles(PHEV)indicatesanadditionalincreaseoflithium-ionbatteries.
However, the rising price of petrol leads to a further demand of increasing technical
efficiency in order to compensate the different kinds of rising operating costs [1, 14].
The pure electric vehicles (BEV), which are driven exclusively by the technology of
lithium-ion batteries, are still in the launch phase. It ismost likely to get aminor, or
niche market for short distance transportation and implementation of new mobility
concepts (car-sharing, etc.) [20, 22]. The comparison of the forecast and demand of
lithium-ionbatteries fromdifferentstudies iswidelydistributed in the fieldofelectric
vehicles [1, 14, 23-25]. This is mainly due to different growth expectations of these
studies,andtheaccuracyofconsiderationalsoresultsverydifferentweightsofbattery
packsinHEV,PHEVandBEV.Inaddition,futurebatterycelltechnologymightdevelop
e.g. pouch cells, with performance-enhancing electrolytes, better active materials,
leadingtoamoderatedgrowthexpectation[1,4].
Figure4.1POMoflithium-ionbatteriesinEU28byapplication(2007-2020)
In figure 4.2 the POM tonnage of lithium-ion batteries is represented in category of
chemistry according to the most important cathode materials. LCO has grown and
dominated the market until 2014 and foreseen to stay steady the next 5 years.
AdditionalincreaseofLi-IonmarketisgeneratedbythecathodematerialNCM,possibly
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performing a comparable strong market share of 45% in 2020 with LCO. The LFP
system also shows a significant growth,which is essentially a result of good thermal
stability,highcurrentcapabilityand low internal resistance [13].Themain forecasted
area of LFP application focuses on the transportation section,which includes both E-
bikesandelectricvehicles.
Figure4.2POMoflithium-ionbatteriesinEU28bychemistry(2007-2020)
4.2 Historical and future EOL data of lithium-ion batteries
Considering the socio-economic factors in section3.2, the lifetime–which is the time
when the batteries are used functionally - can be determined. In addition with the
empiricalhoardingeffect–whichistheperiodoftimewhenbatteriesarestillkeptbut
withoutanyintendedfunctionalusage-theEOLscenariocanbeconducted.
Figure4.3finallyshowstheresultingmassofEOLLi-Ionbatteriesfrom2010to2020,
differentiated by cathodematerials. The LCO system is still dominating the discarded
tonnage,whileasimilargrowthiscontributedbyNCM-applicationsaswell.Amaturity
ofLCOchemistriesinthewastestreamisrecognizableandadeclinebeyond2020can
beexpected.TheenormousgrowthofNCM-batteriesthesedaysisevolvingitsimpacton
battery scrapmarket after2020.Nevertheless, amassof 15.000 tons already reaches
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theirendoflifein2015,tobedoubledwithinfollowing3years.In2020,39000tonsof
consumedlithium-ionbatterieswillbereadyforcollectioninEU.
Figure4.3EOLoflithium-ionbatteriesinEU28bychemistry(2010-2020)
4.3 Historical and future data of collected lithium-ion batteries for recycling
EU countries like Belgium, Germany, France and Netherlands, have a well-organized
reverselogisticsystem,dedicatedtodiscardedbatteriesformorethantenyears.Some
othereconomicallyimportantcountries,suchasUK,orevennewmemberstatesbegan
the implementation of the EU directive late and started collection from about 2010.
Accordingly, different countries are atdifferent stagesof the collection learning curve
andstillneedto invest inconsumereducationconcerninghazardouswasteawareness
andwaste behavior.Most end users in EU countries still discard consumed batteries
with household garbage. Namely Belgium and Netherlands have been successful to
improvetheircollectioneffortstoapproximately40-50%ofEOLportablebatteriesthat
could have been returned in 2013 - while this number is less than 15% in other
countries,likeUK,RomaniaandCyprus[9].Thecollectionrateoflithium-ionbatteriesis
evenmuchlower,whichisonlyaround5%inthelasttenyear[8].
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With considerations of all previous data and assumptions, the calculation model has
been compiled and additionally crosschecked with reliable industrial sources from
CRO´s (Collection and Recycling Organization) respective concerned association like
EBRA[26]andRecharge[8].Hereafter,all28differentcountriesrelatedcollectionrates
forEOLLi-Ionbatteries,andthedifferentiationofapplicationandchemistryis leading
toaconsolidatednumberofcollectedbatteriesforrecyclinginEurope.
Figure4.4Collectedlithium-ionbatteriesforrecyclinginEU28(2010-2020)
Li-Ionbatteryscraphasarisenatthebeginningofthisdecadewithamoderategrowth
up to 2000 tons in 2014. As it can be seen in Figure 4.4, beyond 2015 the annual
accelerationofcollected lithium-ionbatteries isexpected tokeepwith1000 tons.The
delayed development indicates clearly the effective lifetime and hoarding effect of
lithium-ion batteries. Until 2020, there seems to be no saturation or slow down of
collection, which is due to a legislative mandatory improvement of CRO´s result,
combinedwithitsinitialfastgrowthofbatteriessalesbefore2010.
Furtherforecast(>2020)islinkedwithcriticaluncertainties–andneedstoconsiderthe
improvement of consumer education and an economic-technical limitation of the
collectionrate.Acollectionrateof45to55%isagreedtobeasuccessforacompliance
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schemesothatafurthergrowthofLi-Iontonnageisjustreflectingitsportablebattery
marketshare.
Referring to the details of Figure 4.4, the totalmass of collected lithium-ion batteries
with the cathode material LCO keeps increasing, but its share starts to decline after
stayingatpeakof50%from2014.ItisworthtomentionthattheshareofNCMsystem
shows an adverse trend. Beyond 2019, NCM will dominate the collected lithium-ion
batteries chemistry, since it is equipped more with power tools, e-bikes and
automobiles, whose return rates are higher than portable communication electronics
(e.g.cellularphones,laptops,tablets).
Figure4.5ComparisonofEOLversuscollectedlithium-ionbatteriesinEU28
Concerningthecollectionefficiencyoflithium-ionbatteries,thereturnpathofbatteries
has a strong influence, beside the general factor of legislative mandatory collection
targets.Well known from our daily live,more andmore products are equippedwith
embeddedrechargeablebatteries(iPhone, tablets,etc.).Neitherprofessionals,norend
users will disassemble the batteries after the termination of the usage or before
discarding it.Then,batteriesbecomeapartofWEEE,wherethebattery isanextreme
minor and in general tolerated impurity. Today,WEEE processing is not specified to
treataLi-Ionbatteryaccordingitspotentialfirerisk,andinmostcasesnotequippedto
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extractbatteriesmanuallyor semi-automated.This isgoing tobe themost important,
dissipativeleakagedrainofindustrialandstrategicmetalsfrombatteries.
Thisdiscrepancyofsustainabilityisaproductdriventrendandexplainstheimpressive
comparison between EOL (ready for collection) and effectively collected lithium-ion
batteriesinEUfrom2010to2020,illustratedadditionallywithFigure4.5.
4.4 Potential scondary metals from collected and recycled lithium-ion batteries
Depending on the Li-Ion battery chemistry, a different average composition has been
reported and figured out in Table 4.1. Historically, most consumer applications have
beenconstructedwithsteelbatteryhousing,butan increasingshareofapplications is
madetodaybyaluminumcases(e.g.mobile,automotive)andpouchcellconstructions
(PC, tablet, others). In addition, aluminum and copper are always added as electrode
foils. Besides,metals in different oxidation stage from cathode activemass contribute
phosphorus,cobalt,nickelandmanganesebetween8%and19%.High-gradegraphiteis
givenupto16%,whereasLithium,whichgrantsthenametothisbatterytype, isonly
lessthan2%.
Table4.1MetalcontentofconsumerapplicationswithLCO,NMCandLMO
LCO NMC LMO
CellhousingSteel 19% 18% 19%Al 0% 0% 0%
Plastics 1% 1% 1%
AnodeC 16% 16% 16%Cu 8% 7% 8%
Cathode
Mn 0% 6% 8%Li 2% 2% 2%Co 19% 6% 0%Ni 0% 4% 0%Al 4% 3% 4%Fe 0% 0% 0%P 0% 0% 0%Ti 0% 0% 0%O 10% 9% 13%
Others 5% 11% 13%Separator Plastics 3% 3% 3%Electrolyte Solvent 14% 12% 14%
Sum 100% 100% 100%
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Figure4.6Potentialrecycledmetalsfromlithium-ionbatteriesinEU28(2010-2020)
Thetonnagesofmetals,whicharetheoreticallyrecoverable,arevisualizedinFigure4.6.
Asshown,thereisanexponentialgrowththroughtheyears,inparalleloffigure4.4.In
2014,therecycledmetalshavebeenonlyabout1.000tons,butit isestimatedtogrow
up to 4000 tons of metals until 2020. Because of the initial increase of LCO based
lithium-ionbatteriesputonmarket,cobaltkeepsgrowingfromonly16tonsin2010to
760tonsin2020,butshowsamaturitywithanexpecteddeclinebeyond2020.
5 Discussions
5.1 Sensitivity analysis
Twomain converting factors have been investigated: the period of time for reaching
EOL(i.e.technicallifetimeandperiodofhoarding),andthecollectionrateofdiscarded
lithium-ion batteries, in order to calculate future potential tonnage from recycled
batteries.Theinfluenceandevaluationofthesetwofactorsneedtobediscussed.
Table 5.1 shows the collected tonnage of discarded lithium-ion batteries by four
scenarios:
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- ESC(ExpectedScenario):themostconservativescenariowithpremises,whichis
describedinchapter4andvisualizedbyFigure4.4.
- SLT3:ShorteningLifeTimeofallapplicationsforabout3years,withoutchanging
otherpremises.
- PLT3:ProlongingLifeTimeofallapplicationsforabout3years,withoutchanging
otherpremises.
- ICR: Increasing Collection Rate to 60% of accessible batteries – ready for
collectionbyFigure4.3
Table5.1Sensitivityanalysis:variationofcollectedlithium-ionbatterymass(tons)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020ESC 2.970 3.934 4.926 5.978 7.072 8.274SLT3 4.950 6.024 7.165 8.432 9.690 10.984PLT3 674 1.234 1.999 2.874 3.801 4.764ICR 9.516 12.233 15.128 17.922 20.715 23.520
AscanbeseeninTable5.1,shorteningthelifetimefor3yearsincrease30-60%ofthe
mass of expected collected batteries, but the tonnage stays at same magnitude. In
contrast to this, theprolongationof lifetime for3yearsagainstESCcuts the collected
mass of batteries by 40-70%.Anyway, thewaste stream tonnage stays again at same
scale.
ComparingthepreviouschangeswithscenarioICR,asignificantincreaseofevenmore
than15.000tonsliftsthenumberofcollectedlithium-ionbatteriestoadifferentscale.A
slight increase of about 30% collection rate has an enormous impact on materials
enteringtherecyclingpath.
The slight effect of lifetimedeviationencounters the common industrial position, that
lowreturnratesofrechargeablebatteriescanbeexplainedbytheparticularbehaviorof
consumers, hoarding batteries in household. In fact the outstanding influence of
collection rate emphasizes that a well-organized collection scheme, implementing an
adequate number of collection points close to consumers’ vicinity, combining with a
sound consumer education is the dominant factor to ensure a sustainable circular
economy.
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5.2 Plausibility of results and outlook
In the future, lithium-ion batteries will be the dominating system for rechargeable
applications of consumer products and electric vehicles. An extensive comparison of
available research data generates a conservative forecast for the lithium-ion battery
market by applications and electrode chemistrieswithinEU countries. The success of
salesforlithium-ionbatteriesinEUisforeseentostaydynamic,risingfrom40.000tons
in 2011 to nearly 70.000 tons to 2020. A model, which determines the EOL and
collectiondatasetoflithium-ionbatteries,isbuiltbytakingintoconsiderationsofboth
technical and practical factors. This expected collected waste stream of consumed
batteriesindicatesalso,buttime-displaced,adynamicgrowthfrom100tonsin2010to
a tonnage of 8.200 in 2020. The potential recyclable content of cobalt keeps growing
with a declining accrual rate, expected to become mature at the beginning of next
decadeduetothefactthatLCO-Li-Ionchemistryismostlyreplacedbylowornon-cobalt
bearingbatteries.
However, thenumberof collected and recycledLi-Ionbatteries stays farbehindwhat
couldbereintegratedintoeconomy.Thisiscausedbytraceableseconduseorhoarding
effectsofconsumers,butfinallypredominantdependingonthesoundimplementation
ofconsumer-friendlynationalCROs.Their jointeffortsaredriving thesuccessofEOL-
productassessment,and thusanefficientcontrolof contained industrialandstrategic
metals. Countries which have started late with the implementation of Directive
66/2006/EUneedadisciplinedapproachtocatchupthetargetof45%in2016–which
is a challenging but feasible target and already considers the fact that a certainmass
stream isnot accessible for collection.These losses canbe explained e.g. by thirduse
outside EU, illegal export of waste, but mainly with the strong link between Li-Ion
batteriesandelectricorelectronicdevices.Therequirementofprospectiveproduction
design, which is strongly related to fashion, makes it more and more difficult to
disassemblethebatteriesfromconsumerapplications.Thisresultsinthematerialflow
ofbatteries to the technicalprocessingplants in the industryofWEEE, and showsup
consequentlyadissipative lossofbatterymaterials.Evenbatterypacksorcells,which
could be removed technically easily, are identified at minor – which leads to the
necessitytoinvestigatethissustainabilityleakageinWEEEmoreindetailandensuring
technic-organizationalimprovements.
20
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