investigating land use regulation and transportation policy with the san diego pecas model
DESCRIPTION
Investigating Land Use Regulation and Transportation Policy with the San Diego PECAS Model. P roduction E xchange C onsumption A llocation S ystem. Goods, Services, Labour and Space. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Producing Sectors. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Economic Flows. $. $. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Investigating Land Use Regulation and Transportation Policy with the
San Diego PECAS ModelDimantha I De Silva HBA Specto Incorporated
Daniel Flyte San Diego Association of GovernmentsMathew Keating
John Douglas Hunt HBA / University of Calgary
John E Abraham HBA Specto Incorporated
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P roduction
E xchange
C onsumption
A llocation
S ystem
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Pro
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commoditiesac
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Household activities• Produce labour• Consume goods, services, residential
space
Business, government,
and not for profit activities• Produce goods or services (usually one
type)• Consume goods, services, labour and
nonresidential space
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PECAS
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1: Where to locate
2: What to make and what to consume in the process (called the ‘technology’ to use)
3: Where to buy what is consumed and where to sell what is made
4: What type of space (floorspace, buildings) to build
5: How much space to build
Just 5 Choices
The interactions among these
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Location Choice
Technology Choice
Buying and SellingExchange Choice
location alternatives; buildingwith local and neighbourhood attributes
technology options; vectors of the make and use of items, production processes for establishments and lifestyles for households
exchange locations; where the seller stops and the buyer starts paying for transport
PECAS AA Choice Model(Additive logit model)
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Space Development:Simulation of Transitions
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parcel-by-parcel microsimulation
Space Development:Simulation of Transitions
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more
the sa
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parcel-by-parcel microsimulation
Space Development:Simulation of Transitions
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more
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quantity
zoning dictates set of alternatives
parcel-by-parcel microsimulation
Space Development:Simulation of Transitions
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Nested logit structure
No changeDemolish DerelictAdd spaceNew space type
QuantityQuantitymulti-level nested discrete-continuous logit
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Treatment of Space (Land Areas and Locations)
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Treatment of Spaceparcel or grid cell site
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Treatment of Space
transport analysis zone (TAZ)
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Treatment of Space
land use zone (LUZ)
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SANDAG PECAS
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SANDAG PECAS ModelApplication: Background• San Diego Association of Governments• Built and calibrated the model
– Iterative approach, starting in 2007– Production-ready and development work streams last
few years, completed 2012• Sensitivity tests and policy analysis• Now using in formal forecasting process
# I TM 2 0 1 4
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SANDAG PECAS ModelApplication: Model Design• Standard PECAS Framework
– 46 Activity Types, ~ 9 Household Categories– 85 Commodity Categories, ~ 7 Labor and 35 Space
Types– 236 Land Use Zones– 2005 to 2012 for calibration; 2012 to 2050 for
forecasting– 4-Step Transport Model every 3 years starting 2005
• Rent Smoothing, Construction Control
# I TM 2 0 1 4
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PECAS SANDAG Original Motivations• Focus on redevelopment potential
– Not enough capacity though new development– Force thoughtful consideration of different redevelopment
possibilities• Add economic performance analysis to existing forecasting
– Consumer benefit measures– Travel costs are not a good measure of transportation system
performance• Represent economic interactions
– Greater insight into why location and technology/lifestyle choices are made
# I TM 2 0 1 4
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Zoning and capacity
Zoning• Permissions that constrain
SD• Developed through review
of published regulations• SANDAG interns guided by
demographers/modelers, ~2009
• Allowed uses• Allowed intensities (FAR)• Each local government
Capacity• Parcel-by-parcel review by
SANDAG and local planners• Envisioned full build-out
development on each parcel• “Planned” development type,
and count of residential units• Reflects historical agreement
as to regional vision
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Zoning and capacity
• Initial model runs showed developer profit potential of being allowed to build legally allowed projects at legally allowed intensities.
• Initial purpose of the model• Felt to be too radical, official planning process
(at least for RTP) needed to reflect trends and past agreements
• “Capacity” added to model, for forecasting purposes.
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Sensitivity Tests Scenarios• s21: Reference• s22: HH LUZ Capacities Removed• s23: HH LUZ Capacities Removed; Veh Costs x 3• s24: HH LUZ Capacities Removed; Dev Fees = 0• s25: HH LUZ Capacities Removed; Transit Freq x 3
PECAS SANDAG Application: Background
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Results
Shifts in Daily Total VMT and VHT
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(S21)
(S22)
(S23)
(S24)
(S25)
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Removing Household Capacities150kplus 3+ households
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Removing Household CapacitiesUnder25k 3+ households
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Vehicle Costs X3150kplus 3+ households
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Implications
• Forecasting system– But beware: are you ready to let go of your
previous forecasts? • And, are you retiring or changing jobs soon?
– If not, consider constraint or capacity system• Negotiated build-out scenario may not be very
economically efficient– Zoning may be more permissive than you think– Or less permissive than it seems
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Implications
• All our travel infrastructure and service plans may be having marginal effects on regional livability (consumer surplus), when compared to strong land use planning visions
• Behavioral spatial economic modeling may indeed force thoughtful consideration of policy– Success! (by original definition…)
• RTP forecasting is different than policy analysis and consensus forecasting– Can contain limited elements of each– But strict timeline and process requirements