inventing the future: your company, your customers and your partners jack p. garrett garrett...

Inventing The Future: Your Company, Your Customers and Your Partners

Jack P. GarrettGarrett Business Technology, LLC

04 Nov 2003

4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 2

The Plan …

Look at how and by whom the future is invented

Consider what clues are around us that may foreshadow our possible future – and what we and our partners want to do to shape that future for our customers

The Journaling exercise: The relationship I want to have with my customers and partners in the future


The Future, Your Company, Your Customers and Your Partners

The future rarely arrives unannounced

You, your company, your customers and your partners will both invent the future and be subject to it

We don’t lack input, we lack effective filters and analysis

“Most of us have built up a set of filters to keep us from drowning. We pay attention only to what we think we need to know.” – Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View


Not “Where Is It Going”, But “Where Do We Want It To Go?”


Living with the Future or Inventing It

“…Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, Or to take arms against a sea of troubles.”

Hamlet, William Shakespeare

“Lead, follow, or get out of the way.” Lee Iacocca, Chrysler


Who Invents the Future?

What drives them?

What are they like?

How do they invent the future?

What can we learn from them – so we can, too?


Inventors of the Future – the Gold Standard

Pyramid of Khufu 482 feet high, 754 feet at base 2,300,000 limestone blocks 2 ½ tons average, some over 9 tons 20 years to complete

One stone in place, every 4 1/2 minutes, on average, day and night


Leonardo da Vinci – Nobody Did It Better

Musical instruments, painting, sketching, bridges, fortifications entertainment, sculpture, anatomy, weaponry, mathematics, architecture, hydraulics

Customers: Lorenzo de Medici Ludovico Sforza Cesare Borgia King Francis I of France


Leonardo da Vinci

“Every day he made models and designs for the removal of mountains with ease and to pierce them to pass from one place to another, and by means of levers, capstans, and screws to raise and draw heavy weights; he devised methods for cleansing ports and to raise water from great depths, schemes which his brain never ceased to evolve. Of such ideas and efforts many designs are scattered about, and I have seen many of them.”

- Lives of Painters, Giorgio Vasari, ca. 1550


The Future Isn’t What It Used To Be

(http://desip.igc.org/populationmaps.html)(http://desip.igc.org/populationmaps.html)

Thomas Malthus1766-1834

Essay on the Principles of Population


Not Everyone Succeeds …

Superior Technology

Access to substantial personnel and financial resources

Graduate of a prestigious institution of higher learning

Promoted repeatedly for exceptional performance

Experienced, innovative, adaptable

Competitive Advantages



Popular, dashing and successful Offered speaking contract second

only to Mark Twain Ongoing correspondent with

Galaxy Magazine Brought along Mark Kellogg of the

New York Herald – against orders Upcoming Democratic convention

in St. Louis 1876 Democratic candidate:

Samuel J. Tilden (who?)

Why Include Custer?



Personal goals obscured larger objective

Lost technological competitive advantage

Poor use of available resources

Underestimated resources available to competition

Competition was also experienced, innovative, adaptable

What Went Wrong (For Him)?


The Focused Inventor

•Phonograph•Reliable Incandescent Light bulb•Carbon Telephone Transmitter•Motion Picture Camera• … (1093 patents)

http://www.invent-yes.com/Thomas_Edison.htm



“Hell, there are no rules here — we're trying to accomplish something.”

“Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.”




“In 1868 Edison made his first patented invention, the Electrical Vote Recorder. Congress was apparently not interested in purchasing this as it counted votes too quickly. Edison vowed he would never again invent anything unless there was a "commercial demand" for it.”

“At age 23 Edison made his first sale of an invention, a Universal Stock Ticker, to General Lefferts, the head of the Gold and Stock Telegraph Co. Edison had decided that the invention was worth $5000 but was ready to accept $3000 when Lefferts said, "How would $40,000 strike you?" In later years Edison reported that he had almost fainted, but managed to stammer that the offer seemed fair enough. That money was used to set up Edison's first business.”



The Best Things May Come in Very Small Packages

One an ex-physicist and the other a former ornithology student

Competition with Linus Pauling – and others

Crucial Rosalind Franklin X-Ray diffraction photograph shown to them by Maurice Wilkins

3-D Molecular models help visualize the structure

“The Double Helix: … a tale of boundless ambition, impatience with authority and disdain, if not contempt, for received opinion”- Robert Wright

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/tryit/dna/

James Watson and Francis Crick – The DNA Double Helix


Others Who Invented Our Future

Whoever first controlled fire The Sources and Founders of Religions The inventor of Arabic Numerals Christopher Columbus – “Discovery” of the New World Sir Isaac Newton – Laws of Planetary Motion Albert Einstein – Special Theory of Relativity The Manhattan Project – Nuclear Weapons Arthur C. Clarke – Geosychronous communications

satellites Tim Berners-Lee, Robert Cailliau, et. al. - The Internet


Those Who Did Invent the Future

Intensely aware of competition Funding, sponsorship and other resource issues Not afraid to work hard Built on, and improved, the work of others Had their own view of what they wanted the future to be The results weren’t always what they expected


The Future, Your Company, Your Customers and Your Partners

Break


Inventing the Future – Our Turn

What does our future hold and what opportunities are there for us to invent a part of it?

“To create the future, a company must first be capable of imagining it.” – Gary Hamel and C. K. Prahalad, Competing for the Future

“An old Arab proverb says that, ‘he who predicts the future lies even if he tells the truth’” – Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View


Creating Scenarios

1. Avoid probabilities or “most likely” plots2. Do not assign probabilities to the scenarios3. Avoid slight variations on a theme4. Choose memorable names5. Make the decision makers own the scenarios6. Budget sufficient resources for communicating scenarios7. Communicate effectively and imaginatively8. Have fun

Learning from the Future, Liam Fahey & Robert M. Randall, ed.


Separating the Wheat From the Chaff

Consider the following items as possibly being significant indicators of the future

Consider what could be done to invent a future with your partners that would best serve your customers

Exercise: Multivote on which will be most important to your company, your customers and your partners – positively or negatively


Remote Medicine: Telepresence and Robotics

“Telepresence techniques could allow surgeons to conduct robotic surgery from anywhere in the world offering increased accessibility to specialists. Prototypes have been tested that let the surgeons experience all the sensory feedback and motor control that would be felt in person.”

Dutton, G., "Medicine Gets Closer to Virtual Reality." IEEE Software, September 1992, p.108.


Computing Environment Stability and Customer Satisfaction

“In the final analysis the Nimda computer virus affected some 8.3 million computer networks around the world and according to analysts caused $590 million dollars in damage and clean up costs.”

(www.uksecurityonline.com)

“Hackers contest makes a mess of InternetTuesday, 08 July , 2003, 08:56Washington: A weekend hacker contest resulted in ‘the

messiest day in the whole Internet history,’ disabling hundreds of websites from Brazil to the Netherlands, security experts said.”

(www.sify.com)


BUSLINK 1GB ( 1024MB ) USB Flash Memory Pen Drive /w Secure Password Protection, Price: $369.00

Information Archival and Changes in Storage Media

“It’s gonna replace CDs soon. Guess I’ll have to buy The White Album again.”

- “K”, played by Tommy Lee Jones, Men in Black


1804: Punched card: 80 characters 1962: Audio Cassette Tape: 120 minutes 1965: 8-track tape: ~60 minutes 1971: Super 8mm Film: 20 minutes 1976: VHS: 2 hours 1981: 5 ¼” Floppy: 1.2MB 1982: CD: 700 MB 1983: 3 ½” Floppy: 1.44 MB 1994: DVD: 4.7 GB

Information Archival and Changes in Storage Media


Voting, Voting Machines and Hanging Chad

Bush: 271 Electoral votes (50,456,169 Total)

Gore: 266 Electoral votes (50,996,116 Total)

(www.cnn.com)


Revenues Generated by Electronic Games And Motion Pictures

2001:

Video games: $9.3B in revenues

Hollywood: $8.1B

(www.internetnews.com)


Personal Privacy and Freedom of Speech

“USA PATRIOT ActUniting and Strengthening America by Providing

Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act (Oct. 25, 2001)

AN ACTTo deter and punish terrorist acts in the United States and

around the world, to enhance law enforcement investigatory tools, and for other purposes.

…”

(HR 3162)


GPS and RFID: Satellite-Assisted Location

“The ultimate goal is to put a radio tag on virtually every manufactured item …” (“Beyond the Bar Code”, Charlie Schmidt, MIT Technology Review )

“… for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.”

(Revelations 13:18 )

“As of 13 Oct 2003, there were 70,952 active (Geo)caches in 188 countries.”

(www.geocaching.com)


Keyboards that Fold, Roll Up or Can be Integrated Into Clothing

“Levi's musical jacket is made with the silk organza and is controlled with an all-fabric capacitive keyboard. This keyboard has been mass-produced using ordinary embroidery techniques and conductive thread.”

(computer.howstuffworks.com)


Identity Theft

“A survey in March and April (2003) of 4,057 randomly selected adults suggests that during that 27.3 million people were victimized during the past five years when someone made unauthorized charges on their credit cards, took money from their bank accounts, or obtained a credit card or official document in their name.

Last year, based on the survey, 9.9 million Americans were victims of identity theft, costing them $5 billion and businesses and financial institutions $48 billion.”

(www.smartpros.com)


Beyond CRT and LCD: Advances in Holographic, Retinal, 3D displays

“This new stereoscopic display uses a holographic optical element (HOE) … which converges the coherent parallel rays at the center of the human eye and projects the rays directly on the retina.”

(www.siggraph.com, Takahisa Anda, Sanyo)


Wireless Growth

12 October 2003“The top four US carriers had a combined net gain of 2.54

million customers during the second quarter, 40 per cent more than the net gain a year ago, and the strongest quarterly gain in over a year.”

(finance.news.com.au)


Genetically Altered Foods and the Cloning of Animals and Organisms

“Surveys consistently find that 97% of European consumers want clear labeling of all genetically engineered foods and 80% do not want genetically engineered foods at all.”

(www.netlink.de)


Intellectual Property in the Digital Age: Downloading of Music and other Forms of Information

“According to the Recording Industry Association of America and the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry, music thieves pirated more than $4.2 billion last year.”

(more.abcnews.go.com)


The Prospect of a Globe with Three Economic Powers: Asia, Europe and the US

“Due to its rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth, China contributed 15.7% of global GDP growth in 2002, just next to the U.S. We expect China will be able to maintain an annual growth rate of 7% over the long term.”

(Peter Chau, www.talvest.com)


Nanotechnology and Smart Dust

“The FY 2003 President's budget request of about $710 million … for federal investment in nanoscale science, engineering and technology, a 17% increase over FY 2002…”

(www.nano.gov)

“… these "motes" could eventually be the size of a grain of sand, though each would contain sensors, computing circuits, bidirectional wireless communications technology and a power supply. Motes would gather scads of data, run computations and communicate that information using two-way band radio between motes at distances approaching 1,000 feet.”

(www.computerworld.com)


The US Prison Population

“At the middle of last year, prisons and jails held 1,860,520 adults, according to a Bureau of Justice Statistics report. With an increase of 60,000 prisoners over the previous year, the United States may have matched or even surpassed Russia as the country with the highest rate of incarceration.”

(David Ho, AP, abcnews.go.com)


Offshoring of Manufacturing and High-technology Jobs

“A CIO at a famous Fortune 100 manufacturer has a recurring nightmare: As he continues to lay off American IT workers and move their jobs offshore to places such as India, never to return, American public opinion suddenly swings violently against globalization. He and his company are demonized, and Americans boycott his company's products....Indeed, by the end of 2004, research company Gartner estimates, one in 10 IT jobs at U.S. IT companies and one in 20 at non-IT companies will move offshore.”

(Christopher Koch, www.cio.com)


Increasing Functionality of Mobile Phones

“A lot of camera phones will arrive in the coming months, but the XYZ does the best job of integrating this nifty feature without losing sight of its primary phone duties. This model features a spectacular 65,000-color display and includes loads of top-tier specs such as high-speed data surfing via WXY's next-generation 1xRTT networks. The XYZ is also GPS-ready for e911 services, and it supports J2ME, so you can download cool games, applications, and ring tones.”

(Modified from www.cnet.com)


Balkanization - the Growing Tendency Toward Smaller Nation-States

“USSR: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan

Bosnia: Serbians in Bosnia fought to break away from Bosnia and join Serbian dominated Yugoslavia

Kashmir: Muslims in the state of Jammu and Kashmir are fighting to break away from India

Nigeria: the southeastern part of Nigeria declared themselves to be the independent State of Biafara

Sri Lanka: the Tamil Tigers are fighting to break away from Sri Lanka "Kurdistan": the Kurdish people of Turkey, Iraq and Iran have periodically

fought to create the new State of Kurdistan Iraq: the Shiites Muslims living in the marshes of southeastern Iraq have

fought to break away from the Sunni Muslim dominated government of Saddam Hussein” - (Modified from www.harpercollege.com)


The Possibility of Chemical, Biological or Nuclear Terrorism Across the Globe

“Coalition Provisional Authority Administrator Ambassador Paul Bremer issued a statement of condolence October 13 to the victims of the terrorist car bombing in Baghdad of October 12. According to news reports, at least six bystanders were killed and 32 injured in the explosion.”

(www.usinfo.state.gov)


Imaging: From Film to Silicon

“A day after Kodak cut their dividend from $1.80 to 50 cents to invest in its digital business, the company announced it will stop making and selling slide projectors by June 2004.”

(26 September 2003 Mike Pasini, www.imaging-resource.com”


China’s Struggles with the Future

“China has scrapped plans to show its first manned space launch live on television. The decision was prompted by official fears of "political risks" if the flight failed. Beijing says the flight will lift off from a remote desert base in the north west some time between Wednesday and Friday.” (14 October 2003 AP, www.ananova.com)

“Beijing has scrapped a regulation of a half century’s standing that designates accommodations for overseas guests …. Not all luxury hotels were designated to host foreign tourists in the past.” (San Francisco Chronicle, 26 October 2003)


What Do We Think the Future Holds?

Multivote, selecting the items you think will affect your customers and partners most

We’ll score the group’s collective decisions


Journaling Exercise: The Relationship I Want to Have With Customers and Partners in My Future

Inventing the future could be lonely work, but you will certainly need resources and allies. As you develop your strategy for inventing the future you want, how would you gain the support and active assistance of your company and partners?

How would you share your vision of the future with your customers? How might your customer set be different from those you have currently as a result of that vision?


The Future, Your Customers and Your Partners

Thank You…

And May Fortune Smile On You!


Journaling Exercise: The Relationship I Want to Have With Customers and Partners in My Future

Inventing the future could be lonely work, but you will certainly need resources and allies. As you develop your strategy for inventing the future you want, how would you gain the support and active assistance of your company and partners?

How would you share your vision of the future with your customers? How might your customer set be different from those you have currently as a result of that vision?

inventing the future: your company, your customers and your partners jack p. garrett garrett...

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