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© 2019 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form
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influence from any third party. For further information, see “Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity.”
Paweł Białka – GARTNER Executive Partner
Inventing the Future With Continuous Foresight
Industry 4.0
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“Best way to
predict the future
is to invent it”
Alan Kay — at a 1971 meeting of PARC
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What is a Disruption?
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Fads vs Disruptions
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VVolatile
UUncertain
CComplex
AAmbiguous
We Live in VUCA Times …
The world can
change overnight:
• Consumer preference
• Political landscape
• Technology
innovation
Best practices are
yesterday’s solutions:
• New business models
• Fashion
• Competition
Competing stakeholder
requirements:
• Regulatory
compliance
• Shareholder returns
• Customer value
Ethical questions arise:
• What is cool?
• What is creepy?
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Continuous Foresight is used to identify and assess probable disruptions and develop strategic responses to successfully bring the organization into the future.
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Continuous
ForesightDisruptions Future Horizons
Continuous Foresight
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Recruit Trend Scouts
Dedicated Trend Scouts
Part-Time Trend Scouts
Volunteer Trend Scouts
Contracted/Hired Trend Scouts
Partner/Ecosystem Trend Scouts
Academic Trend Scouts
Trend Scouts
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Compile Disruptions and Trends Using Tapestry
Examples Assumption Opposite
Technological
Digital literacy of customersCybercrimePace of innovation of AIInnovation lead
Low — UncomfortableInstitutionalizedHighMegavendors
High — Driving innovationRogueSlowingStartups
PoliticalBordersEntrepreneurial spirit
GlobalizationFriendly
NationalismRestrictive
Economical
Growth in consumer spendingTransparencyEmerging economiesCompetitive forcesPrice of oil
ModerateHighGrowingTraditional marketGoing up
High or lowLowStallingNew adjacent entrantsGoing down
Social/Cultural
Mode of actionTime orientationType of communicationPrivacy needs
IndividualisticLong term, patientEmpathicNot very sensitive
CollectivistShort term, impatientConfrontationalHighly sensitive
Trust/EthicsTrust in business/governmentEthical system
HighConsequentialist
LowUniversalist
RegulatoryPressureType
Going upPrinciples-based
Going downRule-based
EnvironmentalGlobal warmingRenewable energy
No impactNo use
ImpactHeavy use
Source: Gartner
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Sample Trends – Technology
Trend Name Trend Description
Internet of Things Uses software and sensors to connect physical objects to the Internet to help organizations gather data on how the object is being used.
Machine Learning Uses algorithms to enable computers to continuously learn from patterns in data without being explicitly programmed to do so.
Advanced Robotics Includes physical devices that automate manual tasks or augment human activity.
Artificial Intelligence Software’s capability to constantly learn and accomplish tasks that would usually require human intelligence.
Immersive TechnologyTechnology that attempts to emulate a physical world through the means of a digital or simulated world, thereby creating a sense of immersion, e.g.,
augmented reality and virtual reality.
Big Data and Big Data
Visualization
Collection and analysis of large volumes of both unstructured and structured data, which can be attained from an extremely diverse and rapidly changing
range of sources. Big data visualization relates to technologies that convey complex datasets in simple and intuitive formats to help employees and
customers make more effective decisions.
Blockchain A set of distributed databases that develop a chronological overview of digital transactions that is usually shared through a public ledger.
Digitization/Digital
Strategy
How companies exploit all sources of data and technology to create and enhance products and services; boost employee productivity through
collaboration and insight from data; enable new and more efficient operations, processes, channels and business models.
Hybrid CloudIncludes both public and private clouds that operate as separate entities but are integrated in an automated environment to allow for seamless transfer of
data and applications.
Robotic Process
AutomationA rules-based software application that can interact with multiple systems.
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Identifying Candidate Trends
Trend Scouts
Investigate, Identify and
Triage Market Landscape
Recommendations
and Candidate Trend
Profiles
• Define Activity Scope
• Tailor Approach
• Engage Sources
Curate Portfolio
• Identify Candidate Emerging
Technologies and Trends
• Associate trends with Social
Impacts, Vendor
Innovations, Industry Use
Cases and Independent
Market Research
Industry/
Market
Research
Vendor
Assessments
Corp.
Research
User
Groups
Peer
Forums
Discovery
Workshops
R&D
Engagements
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Industry/
Market
Research
Vendor
Assessments
Corp
Research
User Groups
Peer Forums
Discovery
Workshops
R&D
Engagements
Leverage Gartner Trend Profile Research
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Leverage Gartner Hype Cycles
Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2019
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Leverage Gartner Hype Cycles
Hype Cycle for Energy&Utility Industry 2019
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Organize Trends Based on Impact
Trend Candidates
How will a disruption
impact business?
What factors influence a
disruption’s maturity?
Is it a hot topic? Is it understood?
Is it factored into current strategies?
What does this trend mean for your organization?
How should the organization respond?
Potential Impact
Degree of Maturity of Trend
Market Dynamics
Your
Organization
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Qualify Trends by Assessing Their Opportunities and Threats
Societal
Economics
Technology
Millennial workforce
Drive innovation
Build future leaders
Drones
Faster and more reliable
property appraisal
Fraud detection on foreclosures
Majority of population will
live in cities
Higher market potential
Effective asset
deployment
Take share from smaller
players
Traditional workplace
Competing for talent
Airspace regulations
Customer privacy
Higher operating
costsCompetition
Rural operations?
Emergent Disruption Potential Opportunities Challenges
Candidate Trends
Highly Applicable Trends Affected by Market Disruptions
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Analyze Market Findings
Emerging Technology
Radar
Create Emerging Trend Radar
Select Technologies
and Trends
Market Business
Scenarios
Candidate
Trend
Profiles
Quarterly Emerging
Technologies Radar Publication
Communications and Education
Trendspotting
Newsletter
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Sample Radar
• Human Augmentation
• 4D Printing
• Virtual Assistants
• Autonomous Vehicles
• Cognitive Expert Advisors
• Smart Dust
• Commercial UAVs (Drones)
• Blockchain
• Neuromorphic Hardware
• General-Purpose Machine Intelligence
• Deep Reinforcement Learning
• Deep Learning
• Augmented Reality
• Virtual Reality
• Wearable Technology
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
15
14
13
12
11
• Brain-Computer Interface
• Commercial UAVs (Drones)
• Volumetric Displays
• Nanotube Electronics
• 5G
• Neuromorphic Hardware
• IoT Platform
• Digital Twin
• Quantum Computing
• Software-Defined Security
• Edge Computing
• Serverless PaaS
• Machine Learning
• Natural Language Processing
• Cognitive Computing
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
30
29
28
27
26
Must-Watch Technologies
Impact Potential
Transformational
Moderate
High
Risk Factors
High Regulatory Impact
Competitive/Monetary
Ethical/Social/Readiness
Critical Urgent Important Watch
20
32
22
21 25
10
27 10
16
17
18
19
10
9
823
28
26
24
4
1
5
6
7
12
13
14
15
29
30
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Answer the Following Questions
BusinessHow does this impact business
strategy and goals?
OutcomesWhat are the business outcomes
impacted or achieved by this?
OpportunitiesHow are others responding
this?
MaterializeHow does our organization
respond?
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Obstacles
Opportunities
Outcomes
AugmentedReality
Future Wheel for AugmentedReality
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Structure Deal For Flexibility & Efficiency:
Optimal delivery model, commercial program, pricing metrics and service/maintenance levels
Client Roles Supported
Structure Deal For Flexibility & Efficiency:
Optimal delivery model, commercial program, pricing metrics and service/maintenance levels
Optimize Spend:
Identify cost avoidance opportunities, reduce internal costs, benchmark pricing (where available)
Reduce Complexity, Hidden Costs & Risks:
Commercial terms to protect from future cost increases, eliminate unnecessary costs and
provide risk mitigation
Determine What You Really Need To Meet Business Outcomes:
Scoping of your strategic, financial and technical requirements
CIO
BuySmart – Gartner methodology for Cost OptimizationBuySmart Supports Multiple Client Roles and Helps Gartner “Capture the Org”
Functional Leader
Procurement
CIO
Functional Leader
Functional Leader
Procurement
Procurement
Procurement
Pick the Right Provider:
Understand the market, evaluate and select the right partners
Align Deal Structures With Business Needs:
Pick the optimal delivery model, contracting vehicles and pricing models
Optimize Spend:
Avoid unnecessary charges, rightsize support & service levels, assess pricing (where available)
Reduce Complexity & Risk:
Review T&C’s to protect against future price increases, unanticipated costs and
provide risk mitigation
Determine What You Really Need To Meet Business Outcomes:
Assess your strategic, financial and technical requirements
CIO
Functional Leader
Procurement
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For information, please contact your Gartner representative.
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