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INVENTING ROBUST

STRATEGIES

November 5, 2014

Crafitti offers active collaboration to craft ideas in multiple innovation contexts.

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• Inventing long-term strategies involves high degree of creativity and balanced judgment – taking the cue from Patents – Strategies have to be NEW, INVENTIVE and USEFUL!

• Inventing Strategies requires

– an innate ability to look into the future,

– remarkable far sightedness, and

– ability to identify and balance various parameters which may change in

future. • Understanding FUTURE and taking care of all parameters in the uncertain

future to come up with a rational strategy for achieving an objective is a difficult task.

• Ad-hoc manner of Strategy creation based only on somebody’s experience, intuition and judgment, is a recipe for disaster, particularly if the stakes of a particular choice of strategy are extremely high and a wrong or poor strategic choice may lead to disastrous effects later on.

November 5, 2014 2

GAMING for Inventing Robust Strategies

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• Before coming up with various alternative strategies, it is required that decision makers foresee possible contingencies or crises situations.

• CRISIS is defined as a crucial stage or turning point which implies a fairly compressed period of time that has a high probability of leading to a disaster. DISASTER is defined as an extreme loss of something valuable.

• The Decision Makers (DM) requires a framework on a scientific footing to invent strategies – for coping up with various crisis situations in pursuit of meeting organizational objectives.

• A thorough understanding is needed - of possible crisis situations, how these may be avoided and how to manage crisis situations.

• Strategies should be chalked out to

– manage future Crisis situations (Crisis Stability/ Crisis Management)

– avoid Crisis situations (Crisis Avoidance)

– If Crisis leads to Disaster, how to manage disasters.

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GAMING for Inventing Robust Strategies

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• The Crisis Gaming Methodology - a framework for the DM to explore future situations and to create strategies on a rational basis.

• A form of laboratory

– to observe the activities of individuals or groups in simulated crisis.

– an opportunity to play out scenarios that sensitize participants to the opportunities and pitfalls inherent in critical, time urgent situations.

– address the organizational psychology of crisis management.

• When properly done, such games offer a close approximation to the stress and flow of events of a real world crisis, saturating the participants-often more than they anticipated or desired with policy conundrums and quick demands.

• Simulations, assuming that they engage politically seasoned participants become a sort of psychological stage. Together analyst and DM can identify and explore new strategies, intuition or technologies that may improve the quality of crisis management.

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CRISIS GAMING

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• Scenario based, free form gaming’s heuristic advantage however, it can scarcely deliver predictive results – assumed. It seems Pakistan’s military ruler General Yahya Khan took a crisis game on Kashmir conflict played in 1964 in USA as a predictor of reality and launched an offensive leading to 1965 Indo-Pak war – contrary to the game results, Pakistan lost the war.

• Free form gaming/Crisis Gaming offers comparative advantages in four basis areas :

– The study of poorly understood dynamic processes

– The study of poorly understood institutional interactions

– Allowing wider participation by those having different perspectives and competence

– To prepare players for future research, analysis and operational responsibilities

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CRISIS GAMING (Key Advantages)

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• Development of Scenarios: Scenario writing demands not only an understanding of today realities but an imaginative foray into tomorrow’s possibilities

• Actual Course of Play: The first hand decision making under stress can be experienced by DM with penalties for failures.

• Creative problem solving: Innovative responses come out from subconscious of DM that are of potential interests to understand the future crisis responses.

Offers a glimpse at the underlying principle of decisions making. Strategic decisions, especially made under the pressure of crisis are never truly objective.

Limiting or cutting off different perspectives of a poorly understood problem is usually a way of dealing badly with it later on. A key antidote is to generate many possible paths to the future by running frequently, inexperience and different informed studies of a problem.

Crisis Game is a means constituted with these ends in view.

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CRISIS GAMING (Key Advantages)

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• No predictive value

• Gaming can be worse than nothing at all because the wrong lessons are learnt.

• Lessons learnt from game may be refined into crisis formulae

• Replications of results is very difficult

• The variables of the game - size, time frame, level of stress - must be deliberately varied.

• Question of realism must be addressed. It is difficult to duplicate fully the stakes, stress and fatigue of a real crisis

• Rigged Game : the out come of a simulation might be predetermined.

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CRISIS GAMING (Limitations)

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CRAFITTI Will Co-Craft the Crisis Game – A Freeform, Seminar Game with your team – Design, Develop,

Play, Analyze and develop Strategic Guidelines

November 5, 2014

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About Crafitti

November 5, 2014

CRAFITTI: Your Global Innovation and IP Think Tank

Crafitti offers active collaboration to craft ideas in multiple innovation contexts.

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Crafitti Consulting Private Limited

November 5, 2014 10

Crafting INNOVATION Together

• We co-craft end-customer value with every mind working with us by

– Enabling Emergence of NEW

– Maximizing the LIFE of EACH IDEA

– Empowering IDEAS

– Making Innovation Happen

– Future-proofing by creating Future insights and forecasts

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Crafitti’s Framework for Innovation

1. EXPLORE SEE OBSERVE UNDERSTAND AND LIVE

– Reach to the SOUL of a System

2. IDEATE INVOKE – ALVIS IN YOU – Analytical Logical

Value Inventive and Systems Thinking

3. EMPOWER IDEAS CRAFT CHANGE – Connect, Relate,

Allow, Follow-Up, Turn-Around

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An Integrated Approach – ALVIS THINKING

ALVIS

Value Thinking (Minimize Waste – Maximize Value)

Inventive Thinking

(Ideality – Functions – Resources)

Systems Thinking

(Holistic Approach – Exploring Complexity)

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Analytical Thinking (Divide complex problems

into multiple solvable problems )

Logical Thinking

(Informal and Formal Reasoning)

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Crafitti Consulting: Background

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• INNOVATION RESEARCH AND CONSULTING in business, science and technology contexts

• Started in June 2008 and was incubated at the NSR Centre for Entrepreneurial Learning at IIM Bangalore

• Crafitti’s frameworks provide potent platforms to innovate in crafting strategies, breakthrough products, new services, technological alternatives, patent portfolios, process design and embedding successful change in organizations.

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www.crafitti.com © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. November 5, 2014 14

Thank You!

Navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com +91 9902766961

CRAFTING NEW CHOICES –

INNOVATION AND DECISIONS IN

GLOBALIZING WORLD