introductions - service management world · introductions ian aitchison senior product director...
TRANSCRIPT
Introductions Ian AitchisonSenior Product Director
Serv ice Management , Asse t Management , Au tomat ion ,
Iden t i ty , Marke tp lace , Un i f ied - IT , A I , Innova t ion .
Br i t i sh , so he spe l l s and ta lks a b i t funny
W i fe , 2 K ids , 1 Dog, 1 Rabb i t , 2 F ish , Some Bots
Sa i l ing , DJ , Uku le le , Recover ing f rom Je t - lag
t @IanAitchison
Look at this 3 ways
Photo © 2010 J. Ronald Lee.
Be King Canute!
King Canute / Cnut
Norse King.
Did NOT believe he could stop the tide
coming in.
His courtiers believed he was a god.
He showed them that he was NOT
Because he could NOT turn the tide
Think the tide is far away?
Think again
“AI” is a Rising Tide, that will not Recede
Machines Beat
The Best
Humans
At one thing
• 1997, IBM wins Chess
• 2011, Google wins Go
• “I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords”
Ken Jennings. Beaten by Watson in Jeopardy 2011
Talk To
Books
This one slipped out real quiet….
Face Recognition China
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/facial-recognition-china-50000/
Google Duplex
http://www.dealerscope.com
https://www.cnet.com
http://www.afr.com
www.theverge.com
Alan Would Have
Been So Proud
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXUQ-DdSDoE
<Video removed from draft copy>
Just what is ‘AI’ anyway?
Artificial Intelligence is…
Tesler’s Theorem
•“as soon as it works, no one calls it AI anymore”
John McCarthy 1956
It’s all just Technology. ‘puters and stuff.
So it’s not the technology. In the same way that ‘guns’ is not about
‘metal’
It’s what the latest technology can now do.
Some recent developments in Computing theory and practice
Does anything make it different?
You Are Here
• Three Types of AI.
Artificial Narrow
Intelligence (ANI)
“Weak AI”
Focused on single task
Imitates result of brain
Fast, efficient, effective
Everywhere now
We are heading HERE …
• Three Types of AI
Artificial Narrow
Intelligence (ANI)
“Weak AI”
Focused on single task
Imitates result of brain
Fast, efficient, effective
Everywhere now
Artificial General
Intelligence (AGI)
“Strong AI”
Hypothetically as smart as
human
Reason, Plan, Solve, think
Abstractly, Learn
Doesn't actually exist
Artificial Super
Intelligence (ASI)
Intellect smarter than the best
human brains in all ways
Creativity, Wisdom, Social
(see ‘immortality’,
‘extinction)
7 Steps
Rule Based Systems Business automation software, Domestic Applicances, Autopilots
Context Awareness & Retention – Chatbots and Advisors
Domain Specific Expertise – eg, AlphaGo, AlphaGo Zero
Self Aware Systems
Transcendence
ASI
Reasoning Machines
Significance of Neural Networks
Classification
Nodes (artificial neurons)
Connections (synapses)
Tiers
Training sets value of Nodes
Supervised Learning
Source wikipedia
<video removed from draft copy>
How do Neural Networks work?
No, really,
Color
Height 1 0.5 3 3.5 1.5 2.5
Length 1 2 4 5 2.5 5
1 2 3 4 5
1
2
3
m1(LENGTH)
m2(HEIGHT)
Result
m1,m2
W1W2
Wait, what…?
Hey, let’s make our own very simple Neural Network!
WORKSHOP!
So What
Is Deep
Learning
?
https://searchenterpriseai.techtarget.com/definition/neural-network
Multiple Hidden Layers
Unattended Learning
High Performance GPUs vs CPUs
https://deepmind.com/blog/alphago-zero-learning-scratch/
<video removed from draft copy>
October 2017
Source : The Verge
Source : Cnet.com
The moment the world shifted sideways
Move 47…
Deep Mind Go – SIGNIFICANCE
Something very DIFFICULT for humans was SELF-LEARNT by a
machine to a higher standard,
Anything DIFFICULT or EASY for human can now – in theory – be
learnt by a machine to a higher standard.
NARROW AI only. Can play GO, but can’t make a cup of tea.
(But, a gun… can only fire a bullet)
What This Means to YOU
Work Life
Through IT / ITSM lens
WORK FASTER – AUTOMATION
COMMUNICATE BETTER – Conversational Uis
Strategic Decision Making – ‘play’ different scenarios. What if we change
pricing, what if we changed vendor, what if we introduced a new product or
service.
Complex Data Insights
28%
56%Genpact, a global professional services firm, released a report based on a survey of 2,795 workers in the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, 2017
AI threatens my current vocation
AI threatens jobs of my children or
later generation
Some People Will Not Accept AI
Employee feedback on AI by vertical
Lowest AI Opportunity : Media, Education, Government
Highest AI Opportunity : Insurance, Comms, Energy
Skills at Risk?
“Automation, robotics, algorithms and artificial intelligence in recent times have shown
they can do equal or sometimes even better work than humans who are
dermatologists, insurance claims adjusters, lawyers,
seismic testers in oil fields, sports journalists and financial
reporters, crew members on guided-missile destroyers,
hiring managers, psychological testers, retail salespeople
and border patrol agents.
March 2017 report, Pew Research Center analysts made the following observations on the negative effects of AI:
“Moreover, there is growing anxiety that technology developments on the near horizon
will crush the jobs of the millions who drive cars and trucks, analyze
medical tests and data, perform middle management
chores, dispense medicine, trade stocks and evaluate
markets, fight on battlefields, perform government
functions, and even replace those who program software
— that is, the creators of algorithms.”
March 2017 report, Pew Research Center analysts made the following observations on the negative effects of AI:
2/3 agree
AI will help me at work
3/5 agree
I don’t want AI to
change my role at work
3/5 agree
Ai will reduce my career
opportunities
Impact
Decrease No Decrease
Impact
Decrease No Decrease
<- Of all surveyed
<- Of all that have
already see AI in
the workplace
How can AI make your job easier?
Reduce mistakes, find information, help with frontline work,
process high data volumes, solve complicated problems,
identify trends, raise awareness of new information, help with
physical work, predict, help with decision making, support
creativity, keep me company
7% - AI cannot make my job easier
Source: Gartner (July 2017)
41% are rated as transformational, with
another 44% rated as offering high benefits
87% are positioned before or in the Trough
of Disillusionment
What is left when you take Easy away?
Easy
Hard
Easy
Hard
Easy
Easy
Hard
Hard
Easy
Hard
Hard
Hard
Hard
Remember What Matters. Review Your Future
50%44% 42% 40% 39%
Ability to Change Critical Thinkingand Problem
Solving
Ability to thinkCreatively
Ability toCommunicate and
Collaborate
Technical Skills
Competencies for an AI Future
Genpack Survey : competencies will employees need to succeed in an AI future
YOU WILL
BE OK
Personal Life
Apparently Better Personal Life
HEALTHIER
BETTER AWARE, Better Connected
MORE FREE TIME, Less repetitive work
Email Bots
are Bots Too
Meet
re:scam
What About
Deep
Fakes?
Individual harm
National Security
Not So Good. Deep Fakes = Deeply Fake News
Supasorn SuwajanakornPublished on 11 Jul 2017Synthesizing Obama: Learning Lip Sync from Audio Supasorn Suwajanakorn, Steven
M. Seitz, Ira Kemelmacher-Shlizerman SIGGRAPH 2017
Meet Norman!
http://norman-ai.mit.edu/
Norman is an AI that is trained to perform
image captioning; a popular deep learning
method of generating a textual description
of an image. We trained Norman on image
captions from an infamous subreddit (its
name is redacted due to its graphic
content) that is dedicated to documenting
and observing the disturbing reality of
death. Then, we compared Norman's
responses with a standard image-
captioning neural network (trained
on MSCOCO dataset) on Rorschach
inkblots–a test that is used to detect
underlying thought disorders.
World/Geo/Humanity
STRATEGY GAMES
And While We’re Here…
AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS SYSTEMS
No
Joke
Here
Western Distaste
Distaste for ‘robots’ and scary computers is a Western Civilization weakness.
Not a global issue.
Whoever develops the best and fastest use of AI technology will have a very
considerable advantage over other countries.
Commerce, Social, Communication, Politics
It’s a bit like an ARMS RACE…
Animism
The sun, the moon, mountains and trees each have their own spirits, or gods.
Each god is given a name, has characteristics, and is believed to have control
over natural and human phenomena. This thought has continued to be
believed and influences the Japanese relationship with nature and spiritual
existence. This belief later expanded to include artificial objects, so that spirits
are thought to exist in all the articles and utensils of daily use, and it is
believed that these sprits of daily-use tools are in harmony with human
beings.
the concept of treating items
with respect in Japan very
likely has a connection with
the animistic nature of
Shinto. In Shinto, kami can
inhabit both natural and man-
made objects.
Wow. Where is this all heading?
Three Types of AI.Remember this…
Artificial Narrow
Intelligence (ANI)
“Weak AI”
Focused on single task
Imitates result of brain
Fast, efficient, effective
Everywhere now
Artificial General
Intelligence (AGI)
“Strong AI”
Hypothetically as smart as
human
Reason, Plan, Solve, think
Abstractly, Learn
Doesn't actually exist
Artificial Super
Intelligence (ASI)
Intellect smarter than the best
human brains in all ways
Creativity, Wisdom, Social
(see ‘immortality’,
‘extinction’ etc)
Where will an AGI come from?
Commercial Enterprise
Either small well funded ‘brains trust’ business
Or
Mega cloud/tech vendor
You may be working for them right now.
Don’t believe me?
Cambridge Analytica Google Duplex
How will it appear?
Likely through online activity, for one organization.
Making money through trading, game development, mechanicalturk work.
The evidence will be a company that grows and beats all competition and
innovates dramatically. Influences government and social.
Could be Amazon or Google (or maybe Facebook)
GOALS
The AI does not hate you, nor does it
love you,
but you are made out of atoms
which it can use for something
else.
—Eliezer Yudkowsky, Artificial Intelligence as a Positive
and Negative Factor in Global Risk
Thought Experiment – Go Play
http://www.decisionproblem.com/paperclipsl
But Here’s the Main Point
It’s not about getting to AGI.
Current ’Weak’ or ‘Narrow’ AI is bringing more and more dramatic change
So, what to do??
Gartner Quote
The main 3 key conclusions of the research are
1. The risk of failing is great, but the risk of enterprise
obsolescence or non competitiveness in the digital
business era is even greater.
Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence 2017
Gartner Quote
2. While the potential benefits are many, they will come
with inherent failures, setbacks, and the
“disillusionment” typical of emerging technologies.
Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence 2017
Gartner Quote
3. Winners will begin AI programs incrementally - with
risk mitigations strategies and techniques in place - but
will commit resources for a long game.
Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence 2017
Gartner Recommend
Recommendations
CIOs responsible for AI initiatives:
•Start planning, developing and deploying intelligent virtual
support capabilities in business process areas that customers
and citizens increasingly expect to be mediated through AI-based assistants.
•Use mature tools and preintegrated AI stacks to minimize
development from scratch, with a focus on customizing their
applicability to the organization's specific use cases.
•Protect the trust in your brand by adopting a digital ethics strategy.Gartner Predicts 2018: Artificial Intelligence
Published: 13 November 2017 ID: G00343423
Remember What Matters. Review Your Future
50%44% 42% 40% 39%
Ability to Change Critical Thinkingand Problem
Solving
Ability to thinkCreatively
Ability toCommunicate and
Collaborate
Technical Skills
Competencies for an AI Future
Genpack Survey : competencies will employees need to succeed in an AI future
Automate the Heck Out of Everything
…. But …
Jump in and start swimming to avoid being swept
away
Plan to make mistakes and for there to be initial
disappointment
Play a long game. Slow and steady.
One Important Point. “Human in the Loop”!
AI
Machine
Learning
Outcome
Human in
the Loop
AutomationConfident
Not
Confident
IN SUMMARY
Things might change dramatically over the next 3, 5 or 10 years.
It may not all be good. But much will be good.
It is a competitive arms race. And a military arms race.
You are part of making the future. Don’t hide from it.
Put “AI” on your 2018/2019 plans urgently.
Bots - Smart Advisors - Automation
Discussion
Panel
LESSONS LEARNED
KEY TAKEAWAYS