introduction to wildland fire behavior calculations390rm
TRANSCRIPT
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INSTRUCTOR’S NOTE:
• View Graphs 00-02-S390-VG thru
00-50-S390-VG are not in this Power Point
Presentation (tables, maps, nomograms, etc..).
• The instructor will have to have these transparencies and an overhead projector readily available.
• Instructor’s notes for these VG’s will appear in Power Point Presentation.
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S-390 Introduction to Wildland Fire
Behavior Calculations
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COURSE OBJECTIVES
Determine what input is needed for the surface fire behavior nomogram.
Perform fire behavior calculations of rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length, and area/perimeter growth using a fire behavior processor (surface fire behavior nomograms).
Prepare a fire perimeter map showing head, flanks, and rear of the fire in hourly increments.
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COURSE OBJECTIVES
Based on predicted fire behavior, identify areas where fire suppression limitations exist, and make recommendations for fireline location and safe control tactics including the use of backfiring and burning out.
Discuss applications of fire behavior predictions and recognize when predictions may be different from the observed.
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UNIT 1- FIRE BEHAVIOR INPUTS OBJECTIVES
Select “best fit” fire behavior fuel models using a key and fuel model descriptions.
Determine dead and live fuel moisture contents and the probability of ignition.
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UNIT 1- FIRE BEHAVIOR INPUTS OBJECTIVES (cont.)
Determine midflame windspeeds when given the 20-foot winds, fuel type or model, and terrain features.
Calculate slope to the nearest 5% using topographic maps and the slope formula.
Convert fire spread distance to map distance.
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FUEL MODEL
A Set of parameters that define fuel input to the fire spread model.
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FUEL GROUPS
GRASS (3 MODELS)
SHRUB (4 MODELS)
TIMBER LITTER (3 MODELS)
LOGGING SLASH (3 MODELS)
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description GRASS GROUP
Fuel Model 1 (1 foot deep) Fire spread is governed by the fine herbaceous fuels that have cured or are nearly cured. Fires are surface fires that move rapidly through cured grass and associated material. Very little shrub or timber is present, generally less than one-third of the area.
Grasslands and savanna are represented along with stubble, grass-tundra, and grass-shrub combinations that meet the above area constraint. Annual and perennial grasses are included in this fuel model.
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description GRASS GROUP
Fuel Model 2 (1 foot deep) Fire spread is primarily through the fine herbaceous fuels, either curing or dead. These are surface fires where the herbaceous material, besides litter and dead-down stemwood from the open shrub or timber overstory, contribute to the fire intensity. Open shrub lands and pie stands or scrub oak stands that cover 1/3 to 2/3 of the area may generally fit this model but may include clumps of fuels that generate higher intensities and may produce firebrands. Some pinyon-juniper may be in this model.
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description GRASS GROUP
Fuel Model 3 (2.5 feet deep) Fires in this fuel are the most intense of the grass group and display high rates of spread under the influence of wind. The fire may be driven into the upper heights of the grass stand by the wind and cross over standing water. Stands are tall, averaging about 3 feet, but considerable variation may occur. Approximately one-third or more of the stand is considered dead or cured and maintains the fire.
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description SHRUB GROUPFuel Model 4 (6 feet deep) Fire intensity and fast spreading fires
involve the foliage and live and dead fine woody materials in the crowns of a nearly continuous secondary overstory. Examples are stands of mature shrub, 6 or more feet tall, such as California mixed chaparral, the high pocosins along the east coast, the pine barrens of New Jersey or the closed jack pine stands of the north-central states. Besides flammable foliage, there is dead woody material in the stand that significantly contributes to the fire intensity. Height of stands qualifying for this model vary with local conditions. There may be also a deep litter layer that confounds suppression efforts.
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description SHRUB GROUPFuel Model 5 (2 feet deep) Fire is generally carried in the surface
fuels made up of litter cast by the shrubs and the grasses or forbs in the understory. Fires are generally not very intense as surface fuel loads are light, the shrubs are young with little dead material, and the foliage contains little volatile material. Shrubs are generally not tall, but nearly cover the entire area. Young, green stands with little or no deadwood such as laurel, vine maple, alder, or even chaparral, mazanita, or chamise are examples. As the shrub fuel moisture drops, consider using a Fuel Model 6.
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description SHRUB GROUPFuel Model 6 (2.5 feet deep) Fires carry through the shrub layer where
the foliage is more flammable than Fuel Model 5, but require moderate winds (>8 mi/h) at midflame height. Fire will drop to the ground at low windspeeds or openings in the stand. Shrubs are older, but not as tall as shrub types of Model4, nor do they contain as much fuel as Model 4. A broad range of shrub conditions is covered by this model. Typical examples include intermediate stands of chamise, chaparral, oak brush, low pocosin, Alaskan spruce taiga, and shrub tundra. Cured hardwood slash can be considered. Pinyon-juniper shrublands may fit, but may overpredict rate of spread except at high winds; e.g., 20 mi/h at the 20-foot level.
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description
SHRUB GROUP
Fuel Model 7 (2.5 feet deep) Fire burns through the surface and shrub strata equally. Fire can occur at higher dead fuel moisture contents due to the flammable nature of live foliage. Shrubs are generally 2 to 6 feet high. Examples are Palmetto-gallberry understory-pine overstory sites, low pocosins, and Alaska Black Spruce-shrub combinations.
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description
TIMBER GROUPFuel Model 8 (0.2 feet deep) Slow burning ground fires with low
flame heights are generally the case, although an occasional “jackpot” or heavy fuel concentration may cause a flare up. Only under severe weather conditions do these fuels pose fire problems. Closed-canopy stands of short needle conifers or hardwoods that have leafed out support fire in the compact litter layer. This layer is mainly needles, leaves, and some twigs since little undergrowth is present in the stand. Representative conifer types are white pine, lodgepole pine, spruce, true firs, and larches.
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description
TIMBER GROUPFuel Model 9 (0.2 feet deep) Fires run through the surface
litter faster than model 8 and have higher flame height. Both long-needle conifer and hardwood stands, especially the oak-hickory types, are typical. Fall fires in hardwoods are representative, but high winds will actually cause higher rates of spread than predicted because of spotting caused by rolling and blowing leaves. Closed stands of long-needled pine like ponderosa, Jeffrey, and red pines or southern pine plantations are grouped in this model. Concentrations of dead-downed woody material will contribute to possible torching out of trees, spotting and crowning activity.
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description TIMBER GROUPFuel Model 10 (1 foot deep) The fires burn in the surface and
ground fuels with greater fire intensity than other timber litter models. Dead-down fuels include greater quantities of 3-inch or larger limb wood resulting from over-maturity or natural events that create a large load of dead material on the forest floor. Crowning out, spotting, and torching of individual trees are more frequent in this fuel situation leading to potential fire control difficulties. Any forest type may be considered when heavy down materials are present; examples are insect or diseased stands, wind-thrown stands, over-mature situations with deadfall, and cured light thinning or partial-cut slash. 01-06-S390-
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description LOGGING SLASH GROUPFuel Model 11 (1 foot deep) Fires are fairly active in the slash
and herbaceous material intermixed with the slash. The spacing of the rather light fuel load, shading from overstory, or the aging of the fine fuels can contribute to limiting the fire potential. Light partial cuts or thinning operations in mixed conifer stands, hardwood stands, and southern pine harvests are considered. Clear-cut operations generally produce more slash than represented here. The <3 inch material load is less than 12 tons per acre. The >3 inch material is represented by not more than 10 pieces, 4 inches in diameter along a 50-foot transect.
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Fire Behavior Fuel Model Description LOGGING SLASH GROUPFuel Model 12 (2.3 feet deep) Rapidly spreading fires with
high intensities capable of generating firebrands can occur. When fire starts, it is generally sustained until a fuel break or change in fuels is encountered. The visual impression is dominated by slash and much of it is <3 inches in diameter. These fuels total less than 35 tons per acre and seem well distributed. Heavily thinned conifer stands, clearcuts and medium or heavy partial cuts are represented. The >3 inch material is represented by encountering 11 pieces, 6 inches in diameter, along a 50-foot transect.
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LOGGING SLASH GROUPFuel Model 13 (3 feet deep) Fire is generally carried by a
continuous layer of slash. Large quantities of >3inch material are present. Fires spread quickly through the fine fuels and intensity builds up as the large fuels start burning. Active flaming is sustained for long periods and a wide variety of firebrands can be generated. These contribute to spotting problems as the weather conditions become more severe. Clear-cut and heavy partial-cuts in mature and over-mature stands are depicted where the slash load is dominated by the >3inch material. The total load may exceed 300 tons per acre, but the <3 inch fuel is generally only 10 percent of the total load. Situations where the slash still has “red’ needles attached, but the total load is lighter like a Model 12, can be represented because of the earlier high intensity and faster rate of spread.
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FUEL MODEL SIZE CLASS KEY
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FuelModel
Fuel Loading Approx. Fuel Bed
Depth(ft.)
Moist.Of Ext.
(%)
ROS*(ch/h)
FL* (ft)
1-Hour
10-Hour
100-Hour
Live
Grass Group
123
xxx
x x x1.01.02.5
121525
7835
104
46
12
Shrub Group
4567
xxxx
xxxx
x
xx
xx
x
6.02.02.52.5
20202540
75183220
19465
Timber Litter Group
89
10
xxx
xxx
xxx x
0.20.21.0
302525
288
135
Logging Slash Group
111213
xxx
xxx
xxx
1.02.33.0
152025
61314
48
11
*ROS and FL are representatives values under a fine dead fuelmoisture of 8%, a midflame windspeed of 5 mi/h, and live fuel moisture (if present) is 100%.
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FIRE BEHAVIOR FUEL MODEL KEY
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ALWAYS CHECK THE SELECTED MODEL WITH FUEL MODEL DESCRIPTION.
I. PRIMARY CARRIER OF FIRE IS GRASS. EXPECTED RATE OF SPREAD IS MODERATE TO HIGH, WITH LOW TO MODERATE INTENSITY.
•GRASS HAS FINE STRUCTURE, GENERALLY BELOW KNWEE LEVEL, AND CURED OR PRIMARILY DEAD. GRASS IS ESSENTIALLY CONTINUOUS……………………………………………………....MODEL 1.
•GRASS IS COURSE STRUCTURED, ABOVE KNWEE LEVEL(AVERAGE ABOUT 3 FEET) AND DIFFICULT TO WALK THROUGH…………………………………………………...…MODEL 3.
•GRASS IS USUALLY UNDER AND OPEN TIMBER OR BRUSH OVERSTORY. LITTER FROM OVERSTORYIS INVOLVED, BUT GRASS CARRIES THE FIRE…………………………………………..MODEL 2.
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FIRE BEHAVIOR FUEL MODEL KEY
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II. PRIMARY CARRIER OF FIRE IS BRUSH. EXPECTED RATE OF SPREAD AND INTENSITY ARE BOTH MODERATE TO HIGH.
•VEGETATION TYPE IS SOUTHERN ROUGH OR LOW POCOSIN. BRUSH IS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET HIGH…………....MODEL 7.
•LIVE FUELS ARE ABSENT OR SPARCE WITH NO CAPACITY TO REDUCE FIRE SPREAD. REQUIRES MODERATE WINDS OT CARRY FIRE. …………………………………………….…………...…MODEL 6.
•LIVE FUEL MOISTURE CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT DAMPING EFFECT ON THE FIRE BEHAVIOR:
–BRUSH IS ABOUT 2 FEET HIGH, WITH LIGHT LOADING OF BRUSH LITTER UNDERNEATH, WHICH MAY CARRY FIRE……………………………………………………….MODEL 5.
–BRUSH IS HEAD HIGH (6 FEET), WITH HEAVY LOADINGS OF 1-HOUR DEAD FUELS…………………………...……..MODEL 4.
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FIRE BEHAVIOR FUEL MODEL KEY
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III. PRIMARY CARRIER OF FIRE IS TIMBER LITTER BENEATH A TIMBER STAND. SPREAD RATES ARE LOW-TO-MODERATE; FIRELINE INTENSITY MAY B LOW-TO-HIGH.
•LIVE FUELS ARE PRESENT AND CAN INFLUENCE FIRE BEHAVIOR. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LARGER FUELS WITH ATTACHED TWIGS AND BRANCHES………MODEL 10.
•SURFACE FUELS ARE MOSTLY FOLIAGE LITTER, WITH LITTLE OR NO LIVE FUEL. LARGER FUELS ARE SCATTERED AND LIE FLAT ON THE LITTER:
–DEAD FOLIAGE IS TIGHTLY COMPACTED, SHORT NEEDLED CONIFER OR HARDWOOD LITTER………………………………………………………MODEL 8.
–DEAD FOLIAGE LITTER IS LOOSELY COMPACTED LONG NEEDLED PINE OR HARDWOODS.…………...……..MODEL 9.
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FIRE BEHAVIOR FUEL MODEL KEY
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IV. PRIMARY CARRIER OF FIRE IS SLASH, USUALLY PRODUCED FORM LOGGING. SPREAD RATES ARE LOW-TO-HIGH, FIRELINE INTENSITIES ARE LOW-TO-VERY HIGH.
•SLASH IS NOT CONTINUOUS. NEEDLE LITTER OR SMALL AMOUNTS OF GRASS OR SHRUBS MUST BE PRESENT OT HELP CARRY THE FIRE, BUT PRIMARY CARRIES IS STILL SLASH. LIVE FUELS ARE ABSENT OR NONINFLUENCING. AVERAGE SLASH DEPTH IS ABOUT 1 FOOT………………………………..…MODEL 11.
•SLASH IS CONTINUOUS. SLASH IS NOT EXCESSIVELY COMPACTED. LIVE FUELS ARE ABSENT OR NONINFLUENCING. AVERAGE SLASH DEPTH IS ABOUT 2 FEET………..….MODEL 12.
•SLASH IS GENERALLY CONTINUOUS. HEAVIER FUEL LOADING THAN MODEL 12. AVERAGE SLASH DEPTH IS ABOUT 3 FEET. LIVE FUELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE FIRE BEHAVIOR………………………………………………….….MODEL 13.
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LIVE FUEL MOISTURE
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STAGE OF VEGETATIVE DEVELOPMENT________________________________________
Fresh foliage, annuals developing early in growing cycle.
Maturing foliage, still developing with full turgor.
Mature foliage, new growth complete and comparable to older perennial foliage.
Entering dormancy, coloration starting, some leaves may have dropped from stem.
Completely cured.
MOISTURE CONTENT
Percent300
200
100
50
Less than 30, treat as a dead fuel.
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PROBABILITY OF IGNITIONPIG
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A rating of the probability that a glowing firebrand will cause a fire.
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HELLROARING MAP
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MIDFLAME vs. 20-FOOT WINDS
10 mi/h
20 mi/h
3 mi/h
20 mi/h
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20 FOOT WINDSPEED IS ADJUSTED TO MIDFLAME
BASED ON OVERSTORY
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Fuel exposure to windFuel exposure to wind
Partly shelteredPartly sheltered(patchy timber)(patchy timber)
WindWind
Unsheltered (no foliage, Unsheltered (no foliage, near clearings)near clearings)
Fully shelteredFully sheltered(under timber,(under timber,flat or gentle flat or gentle slope, near baseslope, near baseof steep mtn.)of steep mtn.)
Partly shelteredPartly sheltered(under timber(under timbermidslope, windmidslope, windon slope)on slope)
UnshelteredUnsheltered(ridgetops)(ridgetops)
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EXERCISE 3-DETERMINING MIDFLAME WINDSPEED
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PERCENT SLOPE
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% SLOPE = RISE IN FEETRUN IN FEET
X 100 %
RISE
RUN
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UNIT 1- FIRE BEHAVIOR INPUTS OBJECTIVES
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1 Select “best fit” fire behavior fuel models using a key and fuel model descriptions.
2 Determine dead and live fuel moisture contents and the probability of ignition.
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UNIT 1- FIRE BEHAVIOR INPUTS OBJECTIVES (cont.)
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3 Determine midflame windspeeds when given the 20-foot winds, fuel type or model, and terrain features.
4 Calculate slope to the nearest 5 % using topographic maps and the slope formula.
5 Convert fire spread distance to map distance.
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UNIT 2- FIRE BEHAVIOR CALCULATIONS OBJECTIVES
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1. Give the five necessary input values and four output values of the surface fire behavior nomograms.
2. Describe the differences between point source and line source fire behavior predictions.
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UNIT 2- FIRE BEHAVIOR CALCULATIONS OBJECTIVES
3. Use the surface fire behavior nomogram to calculate rate of spread, fireline intensity, heat per unit area and flame length.
4. Determine perimeter, area and shape of a wildland fire originating from a point source.
5. Determine maximum spotting distance.
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SURFACE FIRE BEHAVIOR NOMOGRAM
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INPUTS
OUTPUTS
ACME NUMBER CRUNCERPATENT PEND.
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SURFACE FIRE BEHAVIOR NOMOGRAM
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GARBAGE INPUTS
GARBAGEOUTPUTS
ACME NUMBER CRUNCERPATENT PEND.
?????
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A MATHEMATICAL MODEL IS A SET OF
EQUATIONS
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ASSUMPTIONS OF THE FIRE SPREAD MODEL
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1. Fire is spreading at the flame front.
2. Fire is free burning.
3. Fine fuels control rate of spread.
4. Uniform and continuous fuels.
5. Surface fire.
6. Uniform weather and topography.
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FUEL MODEL
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A set of numbers which define fuel input to the fire spread model.
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FORMULA FOR CALCULATING FUEL
MOISTURE
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MC=Net Wet Weight - Net Dry Weight
X 100Net Dry Weight
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02-08-S390-VG
EFFECTIVE WINDSPEED
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RATE OF SPREADDISTANCE/TIME
ROSCH/HR
02-09-S390-VG
STARTING TIME
TIME
ENDING TIME
DISTANCE
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HEAT PER UNIT AREABtu/sq ft
02-10-S390-VG
STARTING TIME
ENDING TIME
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FIRELINE INTENSITYBtu/ft/s
02-11-S390-VG
ONE FOOT
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FLAME LENGTHFEET
02-12-S390-VG
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Display Transparencies:
02-13-S390-VG = Fire Beh. Fire Characteristics Chart
02-14-S390-VG = Fire Beh. Fire Characteristics Chart
for heavy fuels
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POINT SOURCE
02-15-S390-VG
Point source model is designated for firesburning on flat ground or where the wind is blowing in the direction of the slope plus
or minus 30°.
upslope
max
slop
e
± 30º
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SPREAD CALCULATION
SD=PT X ROS
SD = SPREAD DISTANCEPT= PROJECTION TIMEROS = RATE OF SPREAD
02-16-S390-VG
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02-17-S390-VG
LINE SOURCE
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LINE SOURCEFire has become large and no
longer has a basic elliptical shape because of changing conditions (fuel type, fuel
moisture, weather).
02-17-S390-VG
1
21200
1600
Refer to View Graph
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SPREAD DIRECTION
02-18-S390-VG
WIN
D
NO
WIN
D
WIN
DUP
SLOPEUP
SLOPEUP
SLOPE
WIN
D
DOWN SLOPE
DOWN SLOPE
DOWN SLOPE
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FIRE BEHAVIOR FUEL MODEL LIMITATIONS
02-19-S390-VG
All the assumptions made in fuel models and fire behavior model.
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FIRE MODEL LIMITATIONS
02-20-S390-VGPage 1 of 2
SURFACE FIRES-Not crown fires.-Doesn’t consider spotting.
BEHAVIOR AT THE FIRE FRONT-Not pile burning.-Not burnout.
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FIRE MODEL LIMITATIONS
02-20-S390-VGPage 2 of 2
BEHAVIOR NO LONGER INFLUENCED BY METHOD OF IGNITION.
NOT IMPEDED BY FIRE SUPPRESSION ACTIVITIES.
FUEL CONTINUOUS, UNIFORM.
BURNING CONDITIONS CONSTANT.
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POINT SOURCE PREDICTION LIMITATIONS
02-21-S390-VG
Calculations with windspeeds less than 2.5 miles per hour are generally too low.
Better predictions result withwindspeeds greater than 2.5 milesper hour.
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THE PERIOD OF BURNING TIME IS USUALLY SHORT
UP TO ONE HOUR.
02-22-S390-VG
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FIRE PERIMETER AND SHAPES
02-23-S390-VG
Fire perimeter and shapes are based on smooth ellipses - actual perimeter of the fire edge would likely be greater length and follow topographic relief.
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APPROXIMATE FIRE SHAPES ASSOCIATED WITH MIDFLAME
WINDSPEEDS OF…..
02-24-S390-VG
Wind Direction
Fire Start
2.5 mi/h
5 mi/h
7.5 mi/h
15 mi/h
10 mi/h
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AREAS OF USE SUPPRESSION
02-25-S390-VG
Determination of locations to place crews,equipment, helicopters and fuel breaks.
Development of the wildland fire situation analysis.
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PRESUPPRESSION PLANNING
02-26-S390-VG
Determination of staffing requirements.
Need for retardant.
Attack priorities in multiple fire situations.
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PRESCRIBED BURNING
02-27-S390-VG
Distance between spot fires to accomplishan objective.
Calculating timing of ignition to take advantage of diurnal weather patterns.
Managing wilderness fires.
Development of escaped fire contingencyplanning.
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Display Transparencies:
02-28-S390-VG
THRU
02-36-S390-VG
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EFFECTIVE WINDSPEED
02-37-S390-VG
The midflame adjusted for the effectof slope on uphill fire spread.
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EXAMPLES OF EFFECTIVE WINDSPEED
02-38-S390-VG
EFFECTIVE WINDSPEEDIS 5 mi/h
3 mi/h
60%5 mi/h
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FIRE SHAPES ARE DEPENDENT ON EFFECTIVE WINDSPEEDS
02-39-S390-VG
Wind Direction
Origin
1 mi/h
3 mi/h11 mi/h
15 mi/h
13 mi/h5 mi/h
9 mi/h
7 mi/h
NOT TO SIZE,SCALES ARE ARBITRARY
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THRU
02-42-S390-VG
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MAXIMUM SPOTTING DISTANCE
02-43-S390-VG
When torching trees, piles or wind-driven surface fires loft firebrands,which are then carried by the prevailing wind.
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SOURCES OF FIREBRAND
02-44-S390-VG
•Torching trees
•Burning pile
•Spreading surface fire
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FACTORS RELATING TO THE SPOTTING PROBLEM
02-45-S390-VG
•Probability of production of firebrands.
•Windspeed.
•Fire intensity.
•Number of firebrands
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ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS FOR MAXIMUM SPOTTING DISTANCE NOMOGRAMS
02-46-S390-VG
•Level terrain
•Flame source is a torching tree
•Uniform forested terrain
•Tree species from the IntermountainWest
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REQUIRED INFORMATION FOR SPOTTING DISTANCE
NOMOGRAMS
02-47-S390-VG
•Torching tree height•Torching tree species•Torching tree DBH•Average treetop height where brand may fall.•20-foot windspeed
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UNIT 2- FIRE BEHAVIOR CALCULATIONS OBJECTIVES
02-48-S390-VGPage 1 of 2
1. Give the five necessary input values and four output values of the surface fire behavior nomograms.
2. Describe the differences between point source and line source fire behavior predictions.
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02-48-S390-VGPage 2 of 2
UNIT 2- FIRE BEHAVIOR CALCULATIONS OBJECTIVES
3. Use the surface fire behavior nomogram to calculate rate of spread, fireline intensity, heat per unit area and flame length.
4. Determine perimeter, area and shape of a wildland fire originating from a point source.
5. Determine maximum spotting distance.
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03-01-S390-VGPage 1 of 3
UNIT 3- FIRE BEHAVIOR APPLICATIONS OBJECTIVES
1. Describe the sensitivity of fire behavior
model outputs to inputs using the surface
fire behavior nomograms.
2. Describe how the wildland fire behavior
prediction system can be used in fire
planning.
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03-01-S390-VGPage 2 of 3
UNIT 3- FIRE BEHAVIOR APPLICATIONS OBJECTIVES3. Determine rate of spread, flame length, area,
perimeter, maximum spotting distance, and probability of ignition for wildland fires in a variety of fuel types.
4. Describe four methods to measure rate of spread and two methods to estimate flame length.
5. List five reasons why the results of a fire behavior prediction model may differ from the observed fire behavior.
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03-01-S390-VGPage 3 of 3
UNIT 3- FIRE BEHAVIOR APPLICATIONS OBJECTIVES6. Describe methods used to adjust fire
behavior predictions.
OPTIONAL
7. Determine crown fire potential for wildland fire scenarios in a variety of fuel types.
Use Northern Rockies Crown Fire Nomogram to calculate rate of spread and to estimate if the fire will be wind-driven or plume-dominated.
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OBJECTIVE #1
03-02-S390-VG
Describe the sensitivity of fire behaviormodel outputs to inputs using the surface fire behavior nomograms.
Fuel Models 1,2,4,8, and 13.
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Display Transparency:
03-03-S390-VG
FIRE BEHAVIOR
Fire Characteristics Chart (Haul Chart)
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OBJECTIVE #2
03-04-S390-VG
Describe how the wildland fire behaviorprediction system can be used in fire planning.
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Dispatching Priorities
03-05-S390-VG
FUELSWEATHER
TOPOGRAPHY
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Predicting “Real Time” Fire Behavior
Running Surface Fire
Wildland Fire Situation Analysis(WFSA)
03-06-S390-VG
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Prescribed Burning
03-07-S390-VG
•Estimate the behavior of escapes or spots.
•Assess fuel and weather conditions at burn time.
•Develop burn prescriptions.
•Develop containment and control plans.
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Managing Prescribed Natural Fires
03-08-S390-VG
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FIRE PLANNING
03-09-S390-VG
•Preattack
•Describing consequences
•Environmental documents
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Determine rate of spread, flame length,area, perimeter, maximum spottingdistance, and probability of ignition,for wildland fires in a variety of fuel types.
Review Units 1 & 2Surface Fire Nomogram
Spotting Distance NomogramArea/Perimeter Tables
Probability of Ignition Tables
OBJECTIVE #3
03-10-S390-VG
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Display Transparencies:
03-11-S390-VG
THRU
03-26-S390-VG
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Describe four methods to measure rate of spread and two methods to estimate flame length.
OBJECTIVE #4
03-27-S390-VG
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Rate of Spread =
03-28-S390-VG
Spread DistanceElapsed Time
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WAYS TO MEASURE RATE OF SPREAD
03-29-S390-VG
1. Metal tags - aluminum pipes.
2. Hand held “Range Finder”.
3. Aerial platform - high resolution maps or photos.
4. Aerial photos, infrared imageryor video.
5. Global Positioning System (GPS).
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FLAME LENGTH*
03-30-S390-VG
Indicator of intensity
Observable
*Remember flame length is not equal to flame height.
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1. Compare flames to objectives of known dimensions.-firefighter-fence post-post with painted stripes
2. Photos, infrared imagery, anddigitized videotape.
03-31-S390-VG
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List five reasons why the results of a fire behavior prediction model may differ from the observed fire behavior.
OBJECTIVE #5
03-32-S390-VG
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DIFFICULTY IN OBSERVING FIRE BEHAVIOR
03-33-S390-VG
•individual perceptions
•observations made incorrectly
•fire travels in pulses; need average
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MODEL APPLICABILITY
03-34-S390-VG
Fuel Bed - continuous, uniform, homogenous
Spotting - not considered in spreadmodel
Fire vortices and other fire inducedphenomena
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ACCURACY OF MODEL RELATIONSHIPS
03-35-S390-VG
Formula used to describe real world.
Built on theoretical and limited observed relationships.
Experience helps improve accuracy.
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ACCURACY OF INPUT DATA
03-36-S390-VG
Garbage “IN” garbage “OUT”
Environmental factors important
Custom fuel models where existing FBPS models do not apply
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ADVANCED FIRE PREDICTION TECHNIQUES
03-37-S390-VG
Two fuel model concept
Cross-slope wind
Rough terrain spotting
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Describe methods used to adjust fire behavior predictions.
OBJECTIVE #6
03-38-S390-VG
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VALUE OF INFORMATION
03-39-S390-VG
Is increased accuracy valuable?
Will information be timely?
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STATISTICAL ADJUSTMENTS
03-40-S390-VG
-When value is high
-Observed and predicted vary
-Costs justifiable
-”Line of closest fit”
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Display Transparencies:
03-41-S390-VG
THRU
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Regression Analysis
03-44-S390-VG
Regression Line Calculated
Ro = m * Rp + b
Ro = Corrected Rate
Rp = Predicted Rate
b = y intercept (positive or negative)
M = Slope of line
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INPUT DATA ACCURACY
03-45-S390-VG
-Measure windspeed
-Custom fuel models
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EXPERIENCE
LOCAL KNOWLEDGE
VALIDITY
“LOOK UP” “LOOK DOWN”“LOOK AROUND”
03-46-S390-VG
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NOMOGRAM OVERVIEW
03-51-S390-VG
•Early spring before greenup
•Late spring or early summer
•Normal dry summer
•Summer drought
•Late summer severe drought
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03-61-S390-VGPage 1 of 3
UNIT 3- FIRE BEHAVIOR APPLICATIONS OBJECTIVES
1. Describe the sensitivity of fire behavior
model outputs to inputs using the surface
fire behavior nomograms.
2. Describe how the wildland fire behavior
prediction system can be used in fire
planning.
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03-61-S390-VGPage 2 of 3
UNIT 3- FIRE BEHAVIOR APPLICATIONS OBJECTIVES3. Determine rate of spread, flame length, area,
perimeter, maximum spotting distance, and probability of ignition for wildland fires in a variety of fuel types.
4. Describe four methods to measure rate of spread and two methods to estimate flame length.
5. List five reasons why the results of a fire behavior prediction model may differ from the observed fire behavior.
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UNIT 3- FIRE BEHAVIOR APPLICATIONS OBJECTIVES6. Describe methods used to adjust fire
behavior predictions.
OPTIONAL
7. Determine crown fire potential for wildland fire scenarios in a variety of fuel types.
Use Northern Rockies Crown Fire Nomogram to calculate rate of spread and to estimate if the fire will be wind-driven or plume-dominated.
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THE END
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Hector H. Madrid Great Basin Training UnitNIFC-BLM Smokejumpers