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Introduction to Meteorology and Weather Forecasting ENVI1400 : 10 Credits Dr. Ian Brooks School of Earth & Environment : [email protected]

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  • Introduction to Meteorology and Weather ForecastingENVI1400 : 10 CreditsDr. Ian BrooksSchool of Earth & Environment : [email protected]

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Course Website & Contacthttp://www.env.leeds.ac.uk/~ibrooks/envi1400Notes, links, and data required for forecast exercises will be made available via this site throughout the courseMet. charts and satellite imagery are collected automatically and updated every 6, 12, or 24 hours Email: [email protected]

    Office : room 3.25 School of Earth & Environment (Environment Building)

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Reading ListCore Texts:Atmosphere, Weather & Climate. Barry, Roger G., and Chorley, Richard J; Routledge, 2003.Chapters 3, 4, and 5 particularly relevant.Meteorology Today: An Introduction to Weather, Climate, and The Environment, Ahrens, C. Donald; Thomson/Brooks/Cole, 2003.More Advanced Texts: (recommended for B.Sc. Meteorology & Atmospheric Science)Fundamentals of Weather and Climate. McIlveen, Robin; Chapman & Hall, 1992.The Physics of Atmospheres. Houghton, J.; Cambridge University Press, 2002.

    Of Interest History & Biography (not in library):Air Apparent: How Meteorologists Learned to Map, Predict, and Dramatize Weather. Monmonier, Mark; University of Chicago Press, 1999.FitzRoy: The Remarkable Story of Darwin's Captain and the Invention of the Weather Forecast . Gribbin, John & Mary; Headline, 2003.

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Met. Resources Onlinehttp://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/home.rxmlBasic meteorology coursehttp://www.metoffice.com/education/index.htmlGuides to interpretation of charts and imagery, and access to some current datahttp://www.weather.org.uk/A wide variety of current meteorological data, analysis and forecast charts, etc. Links to lots of other sites.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.htmlAnalysis and forecast charts for Europe from a variety of agencies and models (including UK Met Office)http://grads.iges.org/pix/euro.fcst.htmlAnalysis & forecast charts for Europe issued by National Centers for Environmental Prediction.http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossaryGlossary of Meteorology from the American Meteorological Society

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

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    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

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    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Course Outline10 Lectures (Monday 12-1, Parkinson B10)Introduce basic concepts of meteorologyEmphasis on physical processes not theoretical or mathematical treatments~8 x 1-hour workshops (Thursday 2-3 Parkinson B11)Hands-on forecasting exercisesProblem solvingworksheets

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • 2002-01-31 12:05

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Meteorology, Weather, & ClimateMeteorology is the study of phenomena of the atmosphere includes the dynamics, physics, and chemistry of the atmosphere. (from the Greek meteros lofty)More commonly thought of as restricted to the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere as it affects human life.

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • WeatherThe state of the atmosphere; mainly with respect to its effects upon human activities. Short term variability of the atmosphere (time scales of minutes to months). Popularly thought of in terms of: temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, brightness, and visibility.A category of individual/combined atmospheric phenomena which describe the conditions at the time of an observation.ClimateLong term statistical description of the atmospheric conditions, averaged over a specified period of time - usually decades.

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Why study meteorology?Warning of severe weather

    AgricultureTiming of planting, harvesting, etc to avoid bad weather, hazards to livestockTransport & servicesShipping, aviation, road gritting, flood warnings,CommerceShould a supermarket order BBQs and icecream, or umbrellas?

    November 14, 1854: A sudden storm devastated a joint British-French fleet near Balaklava in the Black Sea.

    French astronomer Urbain Jean Joseph Le Verrier (1811-1877) demonstrated that telegraphed observations could have given the ships a day to prepare.

    In England, Capt. Robert FitzRoy (1805-1865) started the Meteorological Office as a small department of the board of trade. On September 3rd 1860, 15 stations began reporting 8am observations. February 5,1861 started issuing storm warnings to ports.

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • What do we want to know?TemperatureWind speedWind directionCloudsType, extent, altitudePrecipitation?Type, amount, locationVisibilityFog, hazeHumidityTrends in all of theseTiming of significant changesOccurrence of extreme events

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • How far ahead?Ideally: as far ahead as possible!In practice3-5 days is the limit of reasonable quantitative forecasts.Medium-range forecasts (5-10) days are made, but limited to large-scale pressure field and winds, NOT detailed conditions.

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Methods of ForecastingPersistence Method:Tomorrow will be much the same as todayTodays WeatherTomorrows ForecastClear skies, 19C, low windsClear skies, 19C, low windsWorks well when conditions change only slowly. Also surprisingly effective for general forecasts of periods >10 days, for which most other more advanced methods lose all their skill. Several weeks of hot sunny weather often followed by several more.

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Statistical methodsSimple statistics: climatologyGiven a long record of past weather on every day of the year, forecast most frequently observed weather for day of interest.Works well, provided the general conditions are similar to the usual or most common conditions for the time of year. Requires long records many years to provide reasonable statisticsAnalog methodGiven a long record of the sequence of weather conditions, look for a past sequence that resembles the last few days to weeks, and forecast whatever followed it.Difficult to use effectively because of difficulty in finding a close match between current and past conditions. Again, requires records going back many years.

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Trends:Estimate the speed at which features fronts, pressure centres, etc are moving. Allows estimation of time of arrival.Requires measurements over a wide area.Applied over a period of a few hours this method is called NowCasting. Very effective use of rainfall radar imagery.

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Physical UnderstandingAn extensive set of measurements over a wide area, coupled with an understanding of the physical processes allows general conditions to be assessed and forecasts to be made for a wide area a day or two ahead.

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • MetOffice Analysis : 2004-04-24 12:00

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • NCEP Analysis 2004-04-24 12:00

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • AVHRR False colour composite2004-04-24 16:34

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Physical ProcessesThermal atmospheric dynamics are ultimately driven by temperature gradients arising from uneven solar heatingPressure gradient forces immediate cause of horizontal motionsMoisture effect of water vapour content on air density, and release of latent heat has a major impact on convection

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Numerical Weather PredictionPhysical processes are reduced to a (simplified) set of equations that describe changes of physical quantities in time & space. These are initialized with latest observations and stepped forward in time to produce a forecast.Requires: an extensive set of simultaneous measurements over a wide area (synoptic observations) to initialize itFast, powerful computerAdequate representation of the physical processes

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • First numerical forecast made in 1922 by Lewis Fry Richardson.Took several months, calculating by hand, to produce a 6-hour forecast.

    It failedbadly!

    But, it demonstrated the means of producing quantitative forecasts. Its failure has since been shown to be due to the limited understanding of some atmospheric processes at the time.L. F. Richardsons computational grid: Pressure is determined in squares marked P, momentum in those marked M.

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • First successful forecast: 1950 by Jule Charney, Fjrtoft, and von Neumann, using ENIAC.A 24-hour forecast took 33 days to produce, working day and night.

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • Modern forecast models include the whole globe at a horizontal resolution of up to ~1 (~111km).Region of interest modelled at ~10km resolution.Forecasts made every 12 or 24 hours for 0000 and 1200 GMT (sometimes 0600 and 1800) for up to 5 days ahead.Meteo-FranceMetOffice

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

  • SummaryMeteorology is important to a wide variety of activitiesA huge array of meteorological information is freely availableWith a basic understanding of the physical processes involved YOU can make timely and accurate forecasts

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1

    ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1MetO stooped issuing warnings in 1866 restarted quickly, but published forecasts only started in 1879.1865 FitzRoy committed suicide depressed by criticism of lack of theory & poor quality of info from mere telegraph operators.ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1Works up to 70% of the time for UKENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1L. F> Richardson English MathematicianENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1ENIAC built for work on H-BombVon Nuemann & ENIACThe model grid & domain 13x15ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1global model has a horizontal resolution of 0.8333 longitude (432 columns) and 0.5555 latitude (325 rows) giving an approximate resolution of 60km in mid-latitudes Metoffice mesoscale resolution of 0.11 latitude by 0.11: approximately 11km.38 levels in vertical both models.ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1


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